I think a new seeding system
is coming:
Home teams have enjoyed a .575 winning percentage during the Super Bowl era, according to STATS. That figure jumps to .675 during the playoffs.
It figures to be higher in the playoffs, because usually the team with the better record plays at home. But .575 is a pretty big advantage. I also wonder about that supposed three point HF advantage. Just comparing the home and away records of several teams this year, it seems to be much larger. E.g., the Panthers outscored opponents an average of 26-12 at home, and 20-18 on the road. Seahawks are somewhat similar. The 49ers are pretty neutral, but the Saints of course are much worse. In fact, NO is 16-0 at home in RS in 2011 and 2013 (Payton's last two years), and 8-8 on the road. They have never won a road playoff game.
In fact, I would favor the Saints even over SE if they played in NO (and how fortunate were the Seahawks that they played NO at home this year, while SF and AZ played them in NO; even the Rams beat NO at home). I think in the dome, NO is the best team in the nfl, even better than the Seahawks in SE. At home, they have an offense a little less prolific than Denver's with a defense comparable to Seattle's (home and away combined). In 8 home games, they averaged 34.0 pts. and 443 yards vs. 15.6 and 270 for opponents, 6.5 YPP vs. 4.7.
SE at home:29.1, 350 vs. 13.8, 254; 5.6-4.2
DE at home:39.5,455 vs. 22.5,343; 6.3-5.2
FoxxyBrown1111 said:
a.) Most of us do not go with total yards stats. They are seriously flawed.
Actually, Carolina is even worse in total yards—29th in passing offense, and 26th overall.
I have nothing against CAR. They field a great D, have a metamorphosed-to-the-better coach, have a QB whom I already included in my T-5 of active QBs when everybody wrote him off last year
One of the stranger developments this year is that Newton is given great credit for Carolina’s 12-4 season, and makes the Pro Bowl, while Kaepernick has been heavily criticized as a disappointment. Yet last I looked, the 49ers are also 12-4, and Kaep has a better QB efficiency rating than Newton (10th vs. 16th) and a better total QB rating (7th vs. 14th).
What’s going on? Granted, the 49ers have better receivers than the Panthers, but I think CK is also the victim of greater expectations. After his great performances last season, extending through the playoffs, people expected him to throw for 300 yards and run for 80 more every game. In contrast, Newton had his sophomore slump last year, people were starting to write him off, so everything positive he does is magnified.
ChewbaccaD said:
I guess I get wrapped up on our defense because I love defense.
The people who get wrapped up in Carolina’s defense are the opposing QBs. They led the nfl in sacks. And therein lies their best shot at SE, if the title game comes down to those two. SE had the highest % of sacks on passing plays of any team in the nfl. I’m surprised at this, given how mobile Wilson is, but it highlights the problems they’ve had with the O-line.
The news gets
gloomier for SF:
Two bum hamstrings could equal bad news for the 49ers entering their wild-card meeting at Green Bay on Sunday.
With the status of cornerback Carlos Rogers already in serious question, the next man up, cornerback Eric Wright, appeared on the injury report Thursday with a hamstring injury and was limited in practice. He was apparently injured in Thursday's practice.
Wright's injury is particularly troubling given the upcoming opponent. The Packers used at least three wide receivers on 77 percent of their snaps this season, according to Pro Football Focus.
If Rogers and Wright can't play, the 49ers would turn to four-year veteran Perrish Cox, signed Monday after being cut Nov. 12.
And as Oldman noted, the weather
will not be fun:
temperatures for the wild-card showdown at Lambeau Field are expected to dip below zero. The wind chill, according to the National Weather Service, could drop to 30 below.
“You can get frostbite within 30 to 40 minutes in these temperatures if you’re not covered up,” said Roy Eckberg, a meteorologist with the weather service in Green Bay.
A weather front expected to sweep through Wisconsin this weekend is even cold by Midwest standards. Some are expecting Sunday’s 3:40 p.m. CST game to rival the so-called Ice Bowl, played at Lambeau Field between the Packers and Dallas Cowboys in 1967, for the coldest NFL game on record. It was 13 degrees below zero that January day, with a wind chill of 48 below.
The 49ers have not played a cold weather game this year, and I don’t think they’ve played one in the postseason since GB in the late 90s. OTOH, cold weather usually favors the ground game, and the 49ers have a better running game and a much better rushing defense than the Pack.
The SD @ Cincy game recalls the last time these two teams met in the postseason (I think?), in Jan 1982, when it was also below zero. Cincy’s HC at the time, Forrest Gregg, played for GB in that Ice Bowl, and when asked to compare the 1982 game to that, he said, “I’ve never been colder”. Dan Fouts never got the passing game going, and the explosive SD offense, which scored 41 pts the previous week in sultry Miami, was held to one TD.