National Football League

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Peyton Manning:
His teams were favoured 15 times in the playoffs, and underdogs 5 times. Yet his teams actually won only 9 of those 20 contests. That rough numbers alone show that PM is a true playoff choker. Small sample size or not... And blaming the 6 loses over this expectation on defense/bad-luck/special-teams alone would be ridiculous, especially since PM is hailed above god when his teams win. So it should be ok to blame him for the devastating loses too.
Anyway, i´ll take a more serious approach and dig deeper into the numbers:
His teams expected wins (EW) by the Vegas lines were 12.26. Thus, his teams won 3.26 games less than expected. Now that sounds not much more than the 1 game Marinos teams lost more than expected.
But if we look at winning percentage it becomes more clear;
Marino should have a .501 percentage in the playoffs, but actually posseses a .444 Wng.-Pct. (= minus .057 difference).
Manning OTOH should have a .613 Wng.-Pct. in the playoffs, but in reality only has a .450 Wng.-Pct. (= minus .163 difference).
In 16 game seasons his record would look like a 7-9 season, where it should be a 10-6 season. A night and day difference in the usually tight NFL standings.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

So, how many SB rings should the real Manning own?
1999; 0.68 x 0.34* x 0.34* = 0.08
2000; 0.54 x 0.34* x 0.34* x 0.5* = 0.03
2002; 0.3 x 0.34* x 0.34* x 0.34* = 0.01
2003; 0.59 x 0.41 x 0.39 x 0.66* = 0.06
2004; 0.81 x 0.48 x 0.5* x 0.5* = 0.10
2005; 0.77 x 0.66* x 0.5* = 0.25
2006; 0.71 x 0.37 x 0.61 x 0.73 = 0.12
2007; 0.83 x 0.34* x 0.66* = 0.19
2008; 0.57 x 0.34* x 0.5* x 0.66* = 0.06
2009; 0.71 x 0.76 x 0.67 = 0.36
2010; 0.55 x 0.34* x 0.34* x 0.34* = 0.02
2012; 0.78 x 0.5* x 0.66* = 0.26

Adding up all numbers, Manning teams should have won 1.54 superbowls. Now that is not a big difference to the one he actually has (even tough it was the D who carried his team that year).
If looking solely at SB appearances, he should have been there 2.64 times.
So if he has solid playoffs this season, and his team wins the SB (he is due for sure), I might re-think his reputation in my eyes. He then would at least match the expected superbowls. Still he wouldn´t be god in my eyes (b/c of his many bad playoff games up to now), but I would stop calling him playoff choker... I´ll root for the Broncos, but also bet against them for insurance.

(* = explanations see the "Marino posts")

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Merry Christmas all, in case I don't get back on here before then.

My eyes sort of start glazing over when you dudes start talking stats, but Merry Christmas to you as well, you fellow PacNW person, you.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

With very little time left I'm guessing some teams will play a more inspired game of football in order to secure a playoff spot, so here are some more boneheaded picks from yours truly.

Miami
Cincinnati
Kansas City
St. Louis
NY Jets
Philadelphia
Dallas
Carolina
Tennessee
Denver
Seattle
Detroit
Pittsburgh
San Diego
New England
San Francisco

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Well, as a Seattle Seahawk fan I'm laughing my a** off over a certain move afoot by San Fran fans. Some 9ers fans have raised money to purchase a billboard in Seattle to taunt Hawk fans. This is the image:

ESPN Link........ Link 2

As Hawk fan I think it's funny as well, thankfully at this point the 'Hawks and Niners seem to have a mostly friendly rivalry. I mean, any extra money raised will go to Seattle Children's Hospital, coming from Niner fans I find that interesting as well as cool.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Most interesting games to me:

NO@CAR - I like the Panthers here, as long as it isn't close late, or the Saints build up a lead.
DEN@HOU - As bad as Houston is, there is pride in the defense, and Matt Shaub gets the call, and one last chance. This should make things interesting.
IND@KC - Potential playoff game, and I like the Chiefs.
DAL@WAS - Only Romo could lose this.
NHG@DET - If the Lions build up a lead, look for the D to get really aggressive, and cause Eli lots of problems.
ARI@SEA - Seattle has HFA essentially locked up. But I see a win from pride.
NE@BAL - I almost, but not quite, smell a Tom Brady victory here, against a dangerous Raven team.
CHI@PHI - Two division rivals. Both in need of a win.

Be happy you don't live in the Northeast. Instead of getting NO@CAR, or IND@KC. We're forced to watch the Browns play the Jets.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Be happy you don't live in the Northeast. Instead of getting NO@CAR, or IND@KC. We're forced to watch the Browns play the Jets.

I'm already wondering whether, subscribing to DirecTV, I'll get to see at least some coverage of either the Tour Down Under or Tour de San Luis come January.

Not that there is anything wrong with constant repeats of ski stuff, skeleton (the most idiotic sport ever invented, imo), and the occasional equestrian. However, there is some fresh cycling going on next month that some of us subscribers to DirecTV/Universal Sports might actually be interested in!

Sorry for having derailed this thread, btw., I'm just frustrated with the sports TV coverage we get here in the States.

Anyhoo, carry on, and as you were.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Not that there is anything wrong with constant repeats of ski stuff, skeleton (the most idiotic sport ever invented, imo)....

Before Skeleton came along, there was Cresta. I'm waiting for the IOC to come up with inverted Skeleton. That is, the person goes down the Luge run head first, but on their back. Yeah, that would be fun.

I actually love the Nordic sports, especially the XC skiing events, when they are close that is. When not, it's not so interesting.

Like all Olympics though, I think the judged events should be removed. Or "showcase" only.

(Now, who's derailing the thread?!)

Patriots look good so far, came to play. Chiefs did not.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

How do you score an absolute zero in a game of American football?

Ask the Miami Dolphins, apparently.

 

[SirLes]

How do you score an absolute zero in a game of American football?

Ask the Miami Dolphins, apparently.

or the Giants. We've done it twice this season. At least we're not the only ones anymore.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Another topsy-turvy week. Some thoughts.

Seattle losing may have actually helped them in that because it may motivate them and focus them a little. It also gives teams like SF or Carolina hope they can go into Seattle and do what AZ did. Is it just me, or is the NFC West going to be completely stacked for the next few years with AZ and StL on the rise?

Carolina eeked out that win, and they needed it. Not just for the bye week, but for confidence to beat a great Saint team who was playing well.

Great win for Philly, and for Romo in Washington. But my gut tells me the Eagles are going to find a way to beat the Cowboys next week in Dallas, and Romo might help. One team looks heading up (Eagles) the other down (Cowboys).

Seems no one wants to win the NFC North, though if Chicago can beat Green Bay at home, they will take it.

NFC looks like SF heading to probably Chicago, and the Saints heading to the other place (Philly or Dallas). After that, things get fun, especially depending on who San Francisco plays. Them at Carolina or Seattle will be the game to watch.

A guess at Division Championships looks like Philly or New Orleans (back) to Seattle, and San Francisco off to Carolina. Great fun.

In the AFC. Not only losing, but the way they lost hurts KC. Considering this was at home, and they are most likely to play Indy at Indy in the first playoff round, doesn't bode well.

Who wants to play the Patriots in the playoffs? Home, road, doesn't matter. They were on fire and basically blew out the Ravens who were hot. I was impressed by the Pats OL and overall defense that just rattled and baffled Flacco. I did not expect them to rise to this level.

Denver continues to be Denver, and have the #1 seed. But I think both New England and Cincy can give them serious trouble, especially if the weather is bad.

For the last seed, I do like Miami. Yes, they were skunked. But Tannehill should be back, and they play the Jets at home. The bad news is that even after they win (if not, I like San Diego), they go to Cincinnati, where the Bengals haven't lost all season.

Unless San Diego makes the playoffs, and they could, this means it's possible we'll see AFC Divisional playoffs like this:

Indianapolis at New England.
Cincinnati at Denver.

Coaches likely to be fired: Rex Ryan, Jim Schwartz have to be gone on Black Monday. Shanahan is likely gone as is Jason Garrett if the Cowboys lose, or win and get blown out in the playoffs by NO or SF. Joe Philbin in Miami will get fired if they lose this week. Mike Smith could get fired in Atlanta. Same with Leslie Frazier in Minnesota after this dismal year. Greg Schiano is an unknown in TB. Dennis Allen would be fired already in Oakland if Al Davis were around (and Davis would draft a QB with his first pick next draft). And with Reggie McKenzie thinking the team was built to win now, he might. But the Raiders are a mess of a team and I think firing Allen would be a mistake, unless they have a great coach lined up to replace him. Tom Coughlin may retire in NY. Maybe.

 

[Oldman]

Another topsy-turvy week. Some thoughts.
Seattle losing may have actually helped them in that because it may motivate them and focus them a little. It also gives teams like SF or Carolina hope they can go into Seattle and do what AZ did. Is it just me, or is the NFC West going to be completely stacked for the next few years with AZ and StL on the rise?

Alpe-watched that game with utter surprise. The Seahawks seem committed to showing absolutely no creativity...until the 4th qtr. when they went to up-tempo and got down the field fast and used tight ends. They also ended up resting Lynch too much. Those smash-face goaline attempts were silly.
A couple of questionable calls on Cardinal drives ended up messing with the game that looked to locals like the Seahawks wanted to coast through. They better be motivated and quit screwing around as they've won nothing yet.

 

[The Hitch]

Great win for Philly, and for Romo in Washington. But my gut tells me the Eagles are going to find a way to beat the Cowboys next week in Dallas, and Romo might help. .

Romo probably wont be playing

 

[Merckx index]

Is it just me, or is the NFC West going to be completely stacked for the next few years with AZ and StL on the rise?

And thanks to Washington's collapse, the Rams are in line to get a(nother) really high draft pick this year. That's a gift that they didn't see coming.

Carolina eeked out that win, and they needed it. Not just for the bye week, but for confidence to beat a great Saint team who was playing well.

Playing well? They got blown out by Seattle and beaten badly by the Rams. An offensively struggling 49ers team probably would have beaten them at the Dome if not for a controversial technical call on a sack and fumble.

Strange team. Only team in nfl in top 5 in both total O and total D, and only one other team is even in top 10 in both (Cincy). But can't win on the road.

Great win for Philly, and for Romo in Washington. But my gut tells me the Eagles are going to find a way to beat the Cowboys next week in Dallas, and Romo might help.

As Hitch notes, Romo has done the honorable thing, and fallen on his sword.

Anyone else notice that the situations in the AFC and NFC are almost completely opposite? All the division winners in the AFC have been decided,but the seeding is up for grabs. Denver could be 1 or 2, NE could be 1,2 or 3, Cincy and Indy could be 2,3 or 4. None of the NFC divisions has been decided, but the seedings are pretty much assured as W-S-E-N. Unless SF wins division, in which case S and W would probably switch, and if Bears and Cowboys win their divisions, those divisions would switch.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Playing well? They got blown out by Seattle and beaten badly by the Rams.

During that game they were. They actually came very close to winning.

Romo out for the season. Will need surgery on a herniated disk in his lower back. This could potentially be career threatening.

SF looked good at times last night. Not so good at others. I think there is still something missing from their offensive passing game. I watched and I can't tell if it's Kaep not reading the defense fast enough, the receivers not getting open enough down the field, or what. But they are just solid on both sides of the ball and I can still see them running the table if everything lines up.

Back to Seattle. Anyone know what's going on with Percy Harvin?

 

[Tricycle Rider]

They better be motivated and quit screwing around as they've won nothing yet.

Word.

I can totally see the Seahawks blowing it, we all remember how Super Bowl XL turned out.

(Sorry, it's the pessimist in me... you just get so used to losing that actually winning would be a pleasant surprise.)

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Well, there's a LOT of us out here who still think Seattle was screwed in Superbowl XL. Though I agree, they haven't won anything yet. There's a time to let loose, and a time to be serious. This isn't the time to let lose. You don't see Bill Belicheck's teams taking it easy late in the year, do you?

But if you look at two of Seattle's last three games, two teams with tough defenses (SF and ARI) found ways to somewhat shut down their offense, keep Wilson in check, and beat them. I'm sure teams like Carolina, SF (again), and others will be looking closely at that.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

To beat SEA is by going high variance, speak to try to get them into a shoot-out. Either you lose big time with a lot of Ints, or you are able to spot a weakness in matchups and go for it again and again. The only team I see able to do that is DEN. Since i´ll root for DEN anyway, i hope PM this time makes it to the SB and then finds at least "normal weather" in NY.

(Almost) all other teams will lose those 10-13 timid battles-for-field-position-games. Either that being SF, CAR (nothing against Riverboat, but his offense has to less weapons in the passing game to match SEAs defense) or AZ again.
PHI would also be able (next to DEN) to get them into a shoot-out, but i highly doubt their D could held Wilson in check enough (but i would be very happy if they could pull an upset, since i have my 1-30 long bet on Foles & Co ).
OTOH, i think DEN is able to expose Wilson (not as much as AZ, but enough to win by at least 4) when he has to throw it 40 times.

Now i really hope SEA does not win the SB. Because i can´t bet on them to make large enough profits. It would be too expensive to make up for the low odds and thus it would minimize or even neutralize my other bets possible profits.

In short: Go all teams (outside of BAL), but not SEA.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

To beat SEA is by going high variance, speak to try to get them into a shoot-out. ...Since i´ll root for DEN anyway, i hope PM this time makes it to the SB and then finds at least "normal weather" in NY.

But the losses to Arizona and SF were not shootouts. They were grind it out games.

As to PM. You're so critical of him, I find it amusing you're cheering for him. I'm not a Denver fan, and don't like PM's magnetism towards money. Never the less, if he does get to the SB, I actually hope the weather is both rotten and he has a great game, win or lose. I've been critical of him too, but would like to see him at least somewhat get that monkey off his back.

I'm not totally confident Denver can get there though. Their defense is very porous, and PM has a history of not being great in both bad weather games, and against good teams with good defensive plans. They basically play Arena Football, and may end up in playoff games where the team with the ball last wins, or if they fail to convert on a late drive, and end up more than 8 behind they won't make it up.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

But the losses to Arizona and SF were not shootouts. They were grind it out games.

Yeah, and certainly SF and AZ (and CAR, of course) would try the same approach again (to get involved in a field position battle). But I am sure it is a very bad idea to expect Wilson to have another 10 for 27 game. B/C the low scoring games play perfectly in the hands of Wilson: If SEA isn´t forced into much throws, their OL isn´t exposed as much as possible, thus less sacks, thus less sack fumble chances. But more importantly, Wilson can play to his strengths: Using play action and going deep after run plays.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/12/07/signature-stats-play-action-deep-passing/
He can wait for the perfect setting to have his deep receivers open. OTOH, if forced into a shoot-out that logically won´t happen on such a high percentage of his passes, thus shrinking his pass effeciency, thus making the chance higher to win for opposing teams.

Now, how to score a lot against SEA by passing much, to get into a shoot-out? 1st of all, only PHI and DEN i see able to do that. If they can expose something in SEAs Pass-D, the perfect outcome would be like this game:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200712090nwe.htm
It was also a high powered offense vs the best-by-far pass defense of that year (and one of the best ever too at that point of the season). The D had no chance. It´s the perfect blueprint...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

As to PM. You're so critical of him, I find it amusing you're cheering for him. I'm not a Denver fan, and don't like PM's magnetism towards money. Never the less, if he does get to the SB, I actually hope the weather is both rotten and he has a great game, win or lose. I've been critical of him too, but would like to see him at least somewhat get that monkey off his back.

I'm not totally confident Denver can get there though. Their defense is very porous, and PM has a history of not being great in both bad weather games, and against good teams with good defensive plans. They basically play Arena Football, and may end up in playoff games where the team with the ball last wins, or if they fail to convert on a late drive, and end up more than 8 behind they won't make it up.

Yes I am very critical of him. Rightfully. But why should that mean i should not cheer for him? You know i like the best teams to win, not the most lucky ones. It´s time for that the regular season has a meaning again, like in the good ol 80s and 90s. Plus i like offense fireworks instead of dull 13-10 games. Plus, PM is very much due to win another SB to have the monkey off his back. With a SB win and a good post season he´ll almost match his regular season performances. After all, he would be one of the greatest QBs ever, moving into my Top-5. Since time is running out for him, this certainly is the last golden chance: twice as home fav, rested, only 3 more wins needed, 12 quarters of efficient (almost) error free performances...
It would be a perfect Elway-like ending and make a good overall NFL season into a perfect one.
But I doubt too, so i´ll do my annual insurance bets against him.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Well, historically, teams that rely heavily on defense, can end up in trouble if they fall behind in games. Especially ones with high scores. Twice New England actually beat Pittsburgh that way. Once was the game you reference, but another was the 2005 AFC Championship, where despite having a 15-1 regular season record and on a 14 game win streak, plus bitter cold temperatures (favoring running and defense, right?) the Patriots took out the Steelers in a shootout (of sorts) 41-27.

As to the Eagles, I do see your point. They are definitely going to want games with over 60 point totals. The Arena Football "team with ball last wins" type of games really favor them. But they are still a team with a lot of positions that are week, and holes that need filling. Kind of a scary thought to consider how good they will be when Chip Kelly gets his own guys in there, instead of leftovers from conservative Andy Reid, for the most part.

Denver can beat anyone, same as last season. They can score enough to do that on anyone. But they could also lose a game just the same, like I said. If I were a Denver fan I would want nothing more than to beat New England in the AFC Championship. And at the same time, New England is the one team I would not want to face.

I agree with you on Carolina. I like them. I like their future. But their offense is questionable to me. If they are trailing a team like Seattle or SF by something like 23-14 in the 4th quarter...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Well, historically, teams that rely heavily on defense, can end up in trouble if they fall behind in games. Especially ones with high scores. Twice New England actually beat Pittsburgh that way. Once was the game you reference, but another was the 2005 AFC Championship, where despite having a 15-1 regular season record and on a 14 game win streak, plus bitter cold temperatures (favoring running and defense, right?) the Patriots took out the Steelers in a shootout (of sorts) 41-27.

Yeah right. That´s why I think teams must attack SEA. Don´t play their game, but yours. Now the problem is they have the by far best pass D, so you need a really good offense to do that. I only see DEN and PHI able to do it.

As to the Eagles, I do see your point. They are definitely going to want games with over 60 point totals. The Arena Football "team with ball last wins" type of games really favor them. But they are still a team with a lot of positions that are week, and holes that need filling. Kind of a scary thought to consider how good they will be when Chip Kelly gets his own guys in there, instead of leftovers from conservative Andy Reid, for the most part.

Denver can beat anyone, same as last season. They can score enough to do that on anyone. But they could also lose a game just the same, like I said. If I were a Denver fan I would want nothing more than to beat New England in the AFC Championship. And at the same time, New England is the one team I would not want to face.

I agree with you on Carolina. I like them. I like their future. But their offense is questionable to me. If they are trailing a team like Seattle or SF by something like 23-14 in the 4th quarter...

Since I will cheer for DEN, NE is the team i don´t want to see. PM certainly has the past NE games in his mind. His brain might play tricks with him when the going gets tough (speak he´ll get nervous).

A lot with the CAR offense decline has to do with the change in O-coordinator. It´s beyond me why they fired the head of the good working offense of 2012. They changed from vertical attacking under Chudzinski to dink-and-dunk Shula-the-3rd try (the 1st was great, the 2nd a bust, so the 3rd must be average only which seems to be true)

 

[Merckx index]

Yeah right. That´s why I think teams must attack SEA. Don´t play their game, but yours. Now the problem is they have the by far best pass D, so you need a really good offense to do that. I only see DEN and PHI able to do it.

You might want to add GB to that list. Rodgers is starting vs. the Bears, and suddenly being first WC doesn't look so attractive. He'll no doubt be a little rusty, but also fresh and rested.

Now that I think about it, put NO on that list, too. They looked awful vs. SE a few weeks ago, but they do have the required explosive offense, if they can ever get it going on the road.

Remember a few years ago when the Jets were destroyed by NE in a late season game, then beat them in the playoffs a few weeks later.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Rodgers is starting? Ok, i´ll add GB. And he is used to play in not so good conditions but still being efficient (other than the fast declining Saints).