National Football League

[Oldman]

Foxxy said rightly:

Yeah right. That´s why I think teams must attack SEA. Don´t play their game, but yours. Now the problem is they have the by far best pass D, so you need a really good offense to do that. I only see DEN and PHI able to do it.

I will identify myself as a fan and having watched every game one thing was obvious both in SF and AZ: Pete Carroll wasn't showing anyone his game. In SF Seattle played a ponderous, predictable game. The AZ game last week was the same until they appeared to actually want the win and the offense moved easily and scored quickly. AZ was the recipient of a gift of bad officiating and a really stellar final reception. I said earlier Seattle was screwing around until it mattered. I also think they've been resting Lynch. The weakness on the O line can be real so this weekend is critical. They need the win and the bye to get everyone healthy.
I would also say that Seattle hasn't been playing their game. Whether they're saving themselves or their strategy until it counts remains to be seen. It is motivational for the players that you and every East Coast pundit has happily written down the assets they have.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I think SEA has. The past two seasons they set up the pass perfectly, thus resulting in great efficiency for Wilson in play action and finding the open deep receivers.
But what will happen if Wilson is forced to throw it 40 times? The OL will be under constant pressure to protect Wilson play after play.
I hope PHI/GB (if they make the playoffs) do a "test ballon" with an attacking game plan, and then DEN follows trou with the given blueprint.
Ok, am dreaming a bit here, but a SEA-DEN SB would be great...

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I agree w/the Oldman SEA was not on their game last week. Last week vs AZ they could not set up anything, including the pass. Why? It always starts up front. And last week the OL did not get it done. They could not run block. They could not pass block. Why? Anytime backup utility lineman McQuistan gets a lot of reps they are a very average line that does not do well vs great defenses, which AZ has, and which this week's visiting STL has. So the outlook this week vs STL? Injury report has starting RG Sweezy as probable. All other normal starting OL who are a little dinged are also probable. McQuistan will sit. Then, on the side of psychology vs stats, Wilson took the bullets publicly this week for the team's poor performance vs AZ saying "I just have to do better...". No mention of any other area on the team that did not get it done. So, those OL will be playing mad for their leader.

This week's upset of the week: DAL over PHI. (Orton won't try to do anything super human like Romo tries to do and screws up on sometimes. Translation: Orton will not hurt DAL). DAL defense will have to get stops, but if they can do that...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

This week's upset of the week: DAL over PHI. (Orton won't try to do anything super human like Romo tries to do and screws up on sometimes. Translation: Orton will not hurt DAL). DAL defense will have to get stops, but if they can do that...

Agree. The home team might win. But I still hope PHI does for obvious reasons...
So I pick all home teams as usual, except ATL and DEN.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

NFL reports Romo undergoing surgery and definitely out.

Well, Orton does have a heap of experience, probably one of the most stable backup QB's in the league. But he's also very lead footed. One of Romo's strengths is keeping plays alive with his feet. Not so much running and scrambling, but moving around the pocket, he's great at it. Orton isn't, and never was. So we'll see how they do. I love the way Dallas signed Jon Kitna, who was working as a teacher in Tacoma, WA. Jon also agreed to donate this week's check, all $52k, to the school. What a hero.

I question how well Rodgers will play for GB. He hasn't played in 8 weeks and may be rusty. However, I wouldn't bet against him. You could hear in his voice yesterday he was highly motivated. The Packer defense however has many holes. So...

Remember a few years ago when the Jets were destroyed by NE in a late season game, then beat them in the playoffs a few weeks later.

Yes, one of the stranger games We commented on it a few times. The Patriots were 14-2 that year. But in that game, they seemed to have no sense of urgency, and rare mistakes. Belicheck's terse press conference said a lot. Watch it here.

I agree this game against St. Louis will be interesting for Seattle. As the Rams are tough on defense, especially the line. Come 2015 or so they could be a damned good team.

Last I heard Okung was questionable for this game, and they were thinking of sitting him for the needed rest. Do any of you PNW guys know the latest?

...It is motivational for the players that you and every East Coast pundit has happily written down the assets they have.

I may live out here, but you cut me open and I bleed Douglas Fir sap. You can take the boy out of the forest, but you can't take the forest out of the boy. I will always be an Oregonian, and it's only a matter of time before I'm back there.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Kitna's a great dude. He also coaches at the school in Tacoma, so what department that donated cash ends up in would be interesting (e.g. new football gear or non-athletic needs). Either way it's all good. Dang football equipment is spendy... easily $1000 or more just for a good helmet and kevlar shoulder pads.

Rogers rust is prolly a lot better than most other fine-tuned QBs. This should be an interesting game.

Have not heard updates on Okung since this morning. But I will report later if I hear anything. The toe was bothering him some. It would not be good for SEA if he's out.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Kitna's a great dude. He also coaches at the school in Tacoma, so what department that donated cash ends up in would be interesting (e.g. new football gear or non-athletic needs). Either way it's all good. Dang football equipment is spendy... easily $1000 or more just for a good helmet and kevlar shoulder pads.

Out of curiosity I looked up which Tacoma high school Kitna has/had been teaching & coaching at, apparently it's Lincoln.

I went to Foss (you had mentioned you had attended Curtis), I don't seem to remember much of Lincoln. I definitely do remember Stadium, however, just because when I was a young'un the school itself looked like a castle, and their football stadium was a bowl which I tried to do "up and down" running reps in only once.

Anyhoo, sorry for the disruption... carry on with the usual program, gents.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

47+ min ago reported by Seattle Seahawks:
Out- Wright, Harvin
Questionable - Kearse
Probable- Sweezy, Okung, Smith, Sherman, Thomas, Coleman, Lynch

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Couple friends went to Lincoln, couple to Stadium. Both kind of rough areas of town back in the day.

 

[Merckx index]

Pro Bowl rosters announced, with 49ers and Chiefs leading the way with eight selections each. Seattle had six, Denver had just four, and NE three, which is another testament to Belichick. Arizona and Philly had only two, again, says a lot about the coaching.

Biggest snub: Nick Foles leads the NFL in QB rating, but lost out to Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. I understand Brees and Wilson, but I don’t see how Newton gets it before Foles. Foles has started just nine games, but still has more TD passes than Newton, and of course far fewer interceptions. In fact, he has as many TDs as Wilson, and if had as many pass attempts as Manning, his ratio would translate to 54 TD passes. Come on.

However, the Pro Bowl is the week before the SB, so players on teams in the SB will of course not be there. There's a good chance that either Wilson, Newton or Brees makes the SB, so Foles might get in as a sub. In fact, unless the 49ers make the SB, it's highly likely that either Foles gets in as a sub, or he plays in the SB. Rodgers could also be a possible sub, but he's missed more games than Foles.

I hadn't realized the format is different this year. All the players voted in, from both conferences, now go to one pool, from which Jerry Rice and Deion Sanders will draft the teams to play. This means that each side will have some AFC and NFC players, and that in many cases, players on the same NFl team will be on opposite sides.

 

[The Hitch]

Biggest snub: Nick Foles leads the NFL in QB rating, but lost out to Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. I understand Brees and Wilson, but I don’t see how Newton gets it before Foles.

since they ignore conferences (e.g. at rb only 1 Acf player), he was also beaten by Peyton, Rivers and Brady

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

For sure an interesting format for the Pro Bowl. (NFL had to do something to rekindle interest.) Another aspect of the format change is that there would not necessarily be an equal number of players from both conferences selected at each position (e.g. 3 NFC OTs, 3 AFC OTs), or even an equal total number selected from both conferences.
- For instance, at OT it ended up with 4 NFC tackles and 2 AFC tackles.
- Overall, there were 45 AFC players selected, and 41 NFC players.
- There were 42 offensive players picked (excluding ST).
- There were 36 defensive players picked (excluding ST).
(B/R LINK)
I think this is a much more fair way of selecting so there's a better chance that the best players at each position are picked.

And I like that Sanders and Rice will be picking. This reminds me of sandlot football !

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Seeing as we are playing neither for money nor pride here there is absolutely no reason for me to cheat, this is what I had posted on my other site before the actual deadline.

Carolina
Chicago
Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Tennessee
Indianapolis
Pittsburgh
Miami
Detroit
New England
New Orleans
NY Giants
San Francisco
San Diego
Seattle
Denver

 

[ChewbaccaD]

The good news is that I'll be going to a playoff game in two weeks. GO PANTHERS!!!

 

[Merckx index]

Seeing as we are playing neither for money nor pride here there is absolutely no reason for me to cheat, this is what I had posted on my other site before the actual deadline.

Carolina...

Very impressive record.

looking ahead to next week's games, I can't see one where I feel strongly about one team over the other. The 49ers have the longest current winning streak in the nfl at 6 games (SD only other team with more than three in a row), and have played very consistently since two bad losses in weeks two and three.But they just got torched by Carson Palmer for over 400 yards passing in a game that stopped being meaningful for AZ some time in the 3d quarter. And Matt Ryan did the same for much of last week's game. That doesn't bode well for facing Rogers, who will be better next week than he was today. The 49ers have a bad habit of blowing leads late in the 4th quarter--Carolina, NO, AZ, and almost Atlanta. They seem to be going into the postseason with a shaky defense, just like last year. But last year, their offense was better.

If I had to bet (and I'm glad I don't), I'll take them in that game, because I don't think the Packers D is that good. The 49ers beat a very healthy Rodgers in the first game, without Crabtree. In 11 games without him, Kaep had a QB rating of 86+. In five games with him, his rating has been about 100, right about where it was last year. I don't think Crabtree is 100% yet, but like Rodgers, he should benefit from having rested much of the season.

I also like Cincy over SD. Of the four games, this is the one I'm surest of, which isn't saying much. Better defense, and at least some of the time, a good offense. The Chargers don't really impress me that much, they played against KC's second team, and came within a missed FG of losing. But if the Chargers do win, they go to Denver, whom they have played tough in both their games. The Broncos have been held to under 30 points only three times this season, and twice it was SD.

NO @ Philly? The way the Saints have been playing on the road, it looks like Philly, but on paper NO is definitely a better team. Kelly has done a terrific job with that offense, but like any team with growing pains, they're inconsistent. I'm going with NO.

KC @ Indy. Indy is playing well now, but they were earlier in the season, too. Wildly inconsistent this year, that makes this game really difficult to predict. This is one game I need more time to think about.

But nothing will shock me (unless Saints and Eagles are tied 0-0 at end of regulation--but even that could happen if there is an ice storm, and the field is like a skating rink).

 

[The Hitch]

I also like Cincy over SD. Of the four games, this is the one I'm surest of, which isn't saying much. Better defense, and at least some of the time, a good offense. The Chargers don't really impress me that much, they played against KC's second team, and came within a missed FG of losing. But if the Chargers do win, they go to Denver, whom they have played tough in both their games. The Broncos have been held to under 30 points only three times this season, and twice it was SD.

It's also the only game where the home team has a better record than the visitors.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Biggest snub: Nick Foles leads the NFL in QB rating, but lost out to Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. I understand Brees and Wilson, but I don’t see how Newton gets it before Foles. Foles has started just nine games, but still has more TD passes than Newton, and of course far fewer interceptions. In fact, he has as many TDs as Wilson, and if had as many pass attempts as Manning, his ratio would translate to 54 TD passes. Come on.

While I agree that Foles deserved it over Newton, I'd also say that with our defense only getting 2 players is absurd. We have the best defense in the NFL, and our front 7 should all be on the team. They are all monsters, but at least Thomas Davis should have been added.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

On the topic of Pro Bowl snubs, the biggest problem I have with Pro Bowl balloting is it can be a bit of a popularity contest at times. Like the reality TV show American Idol. At least in the NFL PB balloting people get it right most of the time.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Hot teams you don't want to play in the playoffs: Carolina.

Yesterday on Fox NFL Today when asked if he'd rather have a dominating offense or dominating defense in the NFL playoffs, Terry Bradshaw said he'd want the dominating defense. Having played with the Steel Curtain defense he should know something about that. That is, if you believe Terry makes sense most of the time. Anyway, I'll go with that answer too and that saying "defenses win championships".

 

[Oldman]

I think SEA has. The past two seasons they set up the pass perfectly, thus resulting in great efficiency for Wilson in play action and finding the open deep receivers.
But what will happen if Wilson is forced to throw it 40 times? The OL will be under constant pressure to protect Wilson play after play.
I hope PHI/GB (if they make the playoffs) do a "test ballon" with an attacking game plan, and then DEN follows trou with the given blueprint.
Ok, am dreaming a bit here, but a SEA-DEN SB would be great...

Foxxy-yesterday's game was Seattle playing their style. They farted around for several possessions then changed tempo. The O line worked well and they now have a bye week to rest up. It'll be interesting to see who comes to the Clink for the first test.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Some quick picks and thoughts. Agree that three of the WC games could end up upsets, so I may change my mind later.

Cincy over SD. Bengals simply a more solid team. Chargers look on the way up though, and if Rivers gets in a groove, and the Chargers can somehow get ahead.

Indy over KC. Though this should be a close game, and if the good Chiefs and bad Colts show up...

SF should be able to beat GB. But in the cold of Lambeau, if the Packer defense can step up, and Rodgers gets hot, the Packers could upend them.

Philly over NO. If this were in NO, the Saints would beat them easily. But outside in the Philadelphia cold, the Eagles offense should win. But I am not counting the Saints out. They almost beat Carolina, in Carolina the other week.

I still think the 49ers have all the tools needed to win it all. But like Merckx, the way they start to pulverize teams, then let them back in, is not good. I also question Kaep's ability to throw a lot when it's a must. I also question their pass defense in tight games.

I wouldn't want to play Carolina, especially in Carolina. If the 49ers and Eagles win, this is where the Eagles go (if I calculate right). I do however question Cam Newton the way I do Kaep. I haven't seen enough consistent high pressure wins from him. I also think any team is going to have a heck of a time going to Seattle and winning. I don't care that they lost to Arizona at home. The Panthers will have a hard time in the cold and wet of Seattle. Anyone will.

Interestingly enough, the three teams that handed Denver their losses are in the AFC playoffs. Indy, SD and NE. With Cincy a team that I think could give them problems. It's also hard to beat a team three times in a season, which is the Chiefs. So the Broncos have their work cut out for them, despite being the favorite.

My gut tells me the Patriots do not have what it takes to win it all. I just don't see it in their defense, and while Brady is Brady, he doesn't have the receivers I fear. I can actually see Indy or Cincy beating them, in New England. This all makes the AFC ripe for upsets in the weeks that follow.

 

[Merckx index]

LOL, anyone seen this:

ESPN published a cartoon on Facebook with the playoffs recast as the Wizard of Oz. Drew Brees was Dorothy, Colin Kaepernick the cowardly lion, LeSean McCoy the scarecrow and Cam Newton the tin woodsman. Flying monkeys/Seahawks circled overhead along with wicked witch Pete Carroll on his broom, telling them to attack the players on the yellow brick road.

While I agree that Foles deserved it over Newton, I'd also say that with our defense only getting 2 players is absurd.

Definitely. This is why I don't think Newton should get it. If he played for a team not going to the playoffs, he wouldn't have made it. He's getting a big boost by being on one of the better teams, but in fact, Carolina's defense has been the big difference this year. Their offense really has not been that good.

At least in the NFL PB balloting people get it right most of the time.

This year, I think for the first time, fan votes contribute. That's the problem, IMO. For years, the baseball all-star game has been marred by players with really poor seasons getting in just because they were great in the past and a fanbase--usually in a very large city--adores them. I think the same thing is happening now with the Pro Bowl. I have great respect for the choices that players and coaches make, some of the fans, not so much.

What you did in the past definitely counts. If Newton and Foles were equally new on the stage this year, no way would Newton get it.

Hot teams you don't want to play in the playoffs: Carolina.

I think any team would rather play Carolina than Seattle. Carolina's offense is not that good, and they don't have the big home vs. road difference that Seattle has. If the Saints and Niners win, Niners will go to Carolina, and that's a game they ought to be able to win. They barely lost to the Panthers earlier in the season without Crabtree, and they play well on the road.

I think Eagles vs. Panthers would be a really interesting matchup, testing the Panther defense against a very potent offense. The Eagle's defense may be underrated. They held eleven of of their last twelve opponents to twenty-two points or fewer, the one big hiccup coming against the Vikings. When you have the second highest scoring and gaining team in the NFL, that's enough defense.

In fact, in the second half of the season, the Eagles have been one of the best teams in the NFL, though their schedule was pretty soft then. They went went 7-l and averaged 33 ppg,, actually slightly more than Denver, and better defensively than the Broncos, 2l.5 vs. 25 ppg. They are very weak against the pass, giving up the most yards in the NFL in that category, but Carolina is near the bottom in passing offense, so I think the Eagles match up well there. OTOH, Carolina is second in rushing defense and the Eagles are first, by a large margin, in rushing offense.

These are rough stats, not YPP, but I think give a good idea of how interesting this game could turn out. In fact, the more I look at what the Eagles have done in the second half, the more I'm inclined to change my prediction of their game with the Saints. Often the second half doesn't correlate with playoff success, but given that Kelly is in his first year and was putting in a new system, I think it's meaningful here.

An important point to keep in mind that we all tend to overlook every year: the odds of any particular team, no matter how good, going all the way are not that good. If a team has an eighty percent chance of winning, it's a prohibitive favorite. But the odds of winning three games in a row when you are favored that much are only about fifty-fifty. And in the playoffs, one team is rarely favored that much over another.

P.S. - This is old news now, but forgot to mention it before, and maybe some of you didn't hear it. Russell Wilson was drafted by the Texas Rangers, Major League Baseball team. Though they realize he's rather busy at another job right now, they thought the twelve thousand dollar fee they had to pay to secure the rights to sign him was worth it. Just in case he ever considers a second career.

Edit further: Just heard that Shanahan was fired, no surprise, and that one of the main reasons was because he left RGIII in too long in that playoff game last year. I remember we argued about this last year, with several here defending the decision. I always thought it was a bad move, and I guess management did, too.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

I think any team would rather play Carolina than Seattle. Carolina's offense is not that good, and they don't have the big home vs. road difference that Seattle has. If the Saints and Niners win, Niners will go to Carolina, and that's a game they ought to be able to win. They barely lost to the Panthers earlier in the season without Crabtree, and they play well on the road.

Disagree completely. They barely lost...at their home field. They play us here, and our defense is better their's, and has gotten better since we played them. You need to watch our last two games. Our defense was oppressive. Then you compare our offense to their's, and I don't see where you think they are better measurably? Our defense will eat them alive, and Cam may not be pro bowl ready, but he's been good enough when it matters. I think you're way off...but then again, we've been doubted all year and proven people wrong.

*I generally have distaste for people referring to a team as "their" team or using "we," but we purchased permanent seat licenses before the NFL gave us the franchise, so that the city could show the NFL that the team would be supported, so I feel a little ownership, even if fractional.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Foxxy-yesterday's game was Seattle playing their style. They farted around for several possessions then changed tempo. The O line worked well and they now have a bye week to rest up. It'll be interesting to see who comes to the Clink for the first test.

They did make adjustments and the OL and plays worked better, but I'd stop short saying the OL worked well. They were mediocre again, which is something of a concern heading into the playoffs. I was wrong in my pre-game statement saying McQuistan would sit. The Hawks made a game-day or late-week injury update, sitting LG Carpenter, and replaced him with McQuistan. I was so disappointed in the run game I started watching McQuistan, Sweezy, and Giacomini into the second half.
- Sweezy was great. He was active, getting off the ball. Setting blocks on backers in space downfield. Pushing guys downfield. And I did not see him miss an assignment.
- Giaco... he was his typical self. Missing half of his run block assignments. Getting bull-rushed back into the pocket so Wilson could not step up. Letting speed rushers get around him. And he's been doing this for years, with no improvement on those things. He is a liability. He did well on some plays, but half of his assignments were blown.
- McQuistan I give similar marks as Giaco, which puts Okung and Unger in a bad position of having to baby sit. When guys like Okung and Unger can't trust that guy next to him (they would never say that OFC), it makes their job harder. [I don't know why Carp was out. But this is his 3rd season, and is a beast, but he has not played a full season yet.]
- So atypically, Okung had a few false starts. Not good for a Pro Bowl LT, at home.
I am not sold on this OL as a group. In fact, next spring draft I'm hoping they target someone high in the draft who could be a RT in the NFL or LT and play him at RT.

This year, I think for the first time, fan votes contribute. That's the problem, IMO. .

I agree with the last part that fan votes is/can be a problem. Even the TV ratings show the PB of less value than say the MLB All Star game. But regarding fan votes contributing... (I'm no history buff so correct me if wrong) but I think I voted in 2012. I think the fan votes counted then. In fact, I think the fan votes have counted for a third of the votes for the last 15 years or more, with the remainder of the votes from coaches and players counting for a third each (weighted 1/3 coach, 1/3 player, 1/3 fan). But that does not change the conclusion that a popularity contest is the problem.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Well, it will definitely be interesting to see how well Carolina does. I do agree it's going to be tough for anyone, including SF, to go in there and win. But I think it's going to be harder for any team to go into Seattle and win, and that includes the Panthers.

No one should be surprised that Mike Shanahan was fired. I just hope that Snyder has been smart enough to get some people lined up. For to fire someone with no backup plan rarely works well (eg. Al Davis the last decade of his life). If you're keeping score, here's who got the axe on Black Monday.

Rob Chudzinski of the Browns. Much to the dismay of his players. I think this was a potentially a stupid decision. He didn't have the players, went through four QBs, and only coached one season. It takes a few years to build a franchise. To can a guy after one season with poor players, it makes no sense. Unless, unless, they already have someone lined up (the way Seattle did with Carroll when they canned Mora).

Leslie Frazier. The Vikings went 5-11 a year after making the playoffs. But they don't have the players and went through three QB's too.

Greg Schiano of TB. This isn't a huge shock. It is in that he only had two years, and went through the Josh Freeman debacle. But the team had hopes of improving and are cleaning house, GM Mark Dominick was fired as well.

Jim Schwartz - This is no shock at all. He had five years as coach, and the team regressed in the last year.

Rex Ryan is safe, and may get a contract extension for two years, we'll see. Jason Garrett probably won't get fired in Dallas. What the Cowboys need to do is hire a real GM. Having Jerry Jones doing the job is about as bad as Al Davis got in his older years.

As a Raiders fan, I'm really hoping the team doesn't fire Dennis Allen, for the reasons listed above.

Found that Wizard of Oz pic: