Alpe d'Huez said:
For me a better comparison to Kurt Warner would be Curt Schilling. Both were big game players who played their best on the biggest stages. They also had a few monster seasons, in between some not so great years, and injuries. If you look at each for career stats alone, both would be borderline, but if you're evaluating both on what you remember from them, you wouldn't hesitate inducting them.
Schilling is a good comp in that he had great post-season success, was actually better there than Warner. But Schilling's RS accomplishments are much better than Warner's, I don't regard them as borderline at all. He had more than a few good seasons, he actually had ten of them. The problem is that for much of his career he played on relatively poor teams with weak run support.
His career FIP, considered one of the best measures of a pitcher's performance (like ERA with the aspects that the pitcher can't control removed), is a stellar 3.2. He has 80 career WAR, a level that is generally considered slam-dunk for HOF. Only seventeen pitchers have more, and all of them are either in the HOF or are pretty much a lock when they become eligible, except Clemens, because of PEDs, of course. And there are many HOFers with less WAR, e.g., Spahn, Roberts, Marichal, Koufax, Feller, and one of the newest members, Glavine. Schilling meets all the reasonable criteria for HOF.
You might argue that both Schilling and Warner are underappreciated, but the difference is that Schilling is not underappreciated by anyone who understands the game. Traditionalists might vote against him because he didn't win enough games, but these are the same idiots who voted for Cabrera over Trout. I think the tide of history is against them.
In contrast, even people who understand football can have an honest difference of opinion about Warner. There is actually a good case to be made against him, and I appreciate that the writer of the article Foxxy linked made that case, even if he doesn't buy it. As I said before, it comes down to how much you weight peak years. People can reasonably differ over how much length and consistency of career matter.
This argument can't be made against Schilling, because even though he did lose considerable time to injuries and slow development (not at all unusual for pitchers), his WAR compares very favorably to well-recognized HOFers who had much longer careers. However one feels about WAR, it is a counting stat. You don't accumulate a lot of it by having a few brilliant years (hence Koufax has relatively few for a HOFer). To get to 80+, you have to perform at a high level for quite a long time.
Plus off the field both are personable, family men of faith. Oh, and they (almost) have the same first name too.
I like Curt, but he shoots his mouth off at inopportune times, and is not shy about his right wing beliefs. Also managed to lose a pile of money. When he announced he was battling cancer, there were a lot of people who expressed sympathy for him by beginning with "I've never liked this guy, but..." Personality wise, I don't think he's much like Warner.