National Football League

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Foxxy´s HFA-BAF picks:
After a well thought process & evaluating the weekly injury report for hours... skip that... Took me the usual 30 seconds: All home, but the DEN and SD games.

 

[Eshnar]

today IND @ HOU

such a shame my 14/15 last week

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

To Rodgers. Yep, the greed is there in humans. Only social countries can hold it in check, at least a little. Too bad the psycho "leaders" of U.S.A....

I still believe half the money should go to the players. If there were no NFLPA, I'm certainly the owners would still do all they can to increase revenue anyway and make themselves as rich as possible doing it. Read what I read at the bottom of my last post. Political or not, greed IS what the US is based on these days. Greedy owners, greedy players, and a promoted obsessive lust for money and opulence. Sports is no different.

As to tonight's game, that is very hard to call. I would think the Colts will be favored as they have better players, but it's in Houston, the Texans defense is very stout against the pass, they arguably have a better coaching staff, and those mean more in a short week. I'll pick HOU. Kind of scary to think what happens when Clowney returns, presuming he can stay healthy.

 

[ToreBear]

Ok, for Elimination I'm adding the Jets and Rams.


For reverse survival I'm picking the cowgirls.

So that means:



Elimination: Raiders,jaguars, Titans, Chiefs, Texans, Bucs, Rams, Rednecks, Jets, Rams

Reverse survival:
Giants, Bears*, Steelers*, Titans, Cardinals, Cowgirls






On the Money issue, I agree with Foxy. I just try to think of it as monopoly money. That way it doesn't hurt my socialist sensitivities too much.

Still I understand and agree with Alpes point about the culture in the US. The lust for money is extreme. In my little country that would be unacceptable. But in the US it has been slowly going that way for many decades. It's like the boiling frog analogy. Americans have gotten used to it.

As for who pays, It's the fans of course. Both in the stadium and with time spent watching ads on TV. The amount of ad breaks in the NFL is insane. I'm thinking people will get turned off by it eventually. When that happens I think the nfl will wake up wondering what happened, with a lot less fans buying into their product.

An interesting issue with the wage cap is that more greed means less chance of winning.

If you have star players who eat up most of the cap, you have to fill the rest of the team with perhaps less capable players. If on the other hand a team could carry 53 players who all wanted victories more than money, that could be a really good team. Lets say the players themselves come up with a good distribution of the cap money. Lets say they get payed equal money whether the starting qb or the backup special teams player.

Edit: Came across this article about contracts and the different types of Money in them:
http://thelab.bleacherreport.com/nflmegadeals/

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Sure loser; Survival DAL (Indy, KC, TEN, PHI, TB so far)
Elimination; NO, NYJ (DEN, OAK, JAX, SL, TB, MIN, ATL, CHI so far)

 

[Amsterhammer]

Tonight -

IND @ HOU

Elimination Football:

Alpe -
Foxxy -
Amsterhammer - Washington, Dallas, N.Y. Giants, Sandy Eggo, Oakland, Jax, Tampa Bay, Houston, Atlanta, Minnesoda

On3m@nmy -
Glenn -
Hitch -
Tricycle -
Merckx -
Oldman -
Leftover Pie
Chewy -
Sciocco -
Pricey Sky -
Tonebear -

For Survival Football, you must pick a team you think will lose this weekend. You cannot select them again for the rest of the season. Here are last week's picks. Please help fill in the blank if you picked and I missed it.

Alpe -
Foxxy -
Glenn -
Amsterhammer - (missed pick) Sandy Eggo, (one strike), Oakland, Tampa Bay, Cowgirls
On3m@nmy -
Hitch -
Tricycle -
Merckx -
Oldman -
Leftover Pie -
Chewy -[/QUOTE]

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

For Survival Football™. I pick Dallas (to add to Indy, KC, Minn, Tenn & NY Jets)

For Elimination Football®, NY Jets & Minnesota, to add to Wash, Buf, NYG, Cle, Jax, StL , TB, Mia.

 

[Merckx index]

Survival: Past picks: MI*, NYJ, Min, TE, BUF*

Adding OAK

Elimination: NYG, JAX, KC, MI, BUF, StL, OAK, TE.

Adding CLE, WASH

 

[Eshnar]

ne @ buf
car @ cin
pit @ cle
gb @ mia
det @ min
den @ nyj
bal @ tb
jax @ ten
sd @ oak
was @ ari
chi @ atl
dal @ sea
nyg @ phi
sf @ stl

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

CAR@CIN
PIT@CLE
GB@MIA
DET@MIN
DEN@NYJ
BAL@TB
JAX@TEN
SD@OAK
WAS@ARI
CHI@ATL
DAL@SEA
NYG@PHI
SF@STL

Should be a good week, as several of the home teams are theoretically weaker. Cleveland, Tampa, Oakland, St. Louis, Miami, etc.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Should be a good week, as several of the home teams are theoretically weaker. Cleveland, Tampa, Oakland, St. Louis, Miami, etc.

So wanna say you have a chance this week against my HFA-BAF™...
Let´s see. I am confident as always...

 

[Eshnar]

CAR@CIN
PIT@CLE
GB@MIA
DET@MIN
DEN@NYJ
BAL@TB
JAX@TEN
SD@OAK
WAS@ARI
CHI@ATL
DAL@SEA
NYG@PHI
SF@STL

Should be a good week, as several of the home teams are theoretically weaker. Cleveland, Tampa, Oakland, St. Louis, Miami, etc.

any reason why you didn't pick the NE @ BUL game?

 

[Amsterhammer]

Holy sh!t, didn’t realize the time, haven’t even looked at scores since the Skins play late. You’ll have to trust me on these quick picks and given my picking history.

IND @ HOU
JAX @ TEN
BAL @ TB
DEN # NYJ
DET @ MIN
NE @ BUF
CAR @ CIN
PIT @ CLE
GB @ MIA
SD @ OAK
CHI @ ATL
DAL @ SEA
WSH @ ARI
NYG @ PHI
SF @ STL

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Holy sh!t, didn’t realize the time, haven’t even looked at scores since the Skins play late. You’ll have to trust me on these quick picks and given my picking history.

That means everything but open the gap more behind to others pickers than they already are must be considered as fake picks then?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Holy sh!t, didn’t realize the time, haven’t even looked at scores since the Skins play late. You’ll have to trust me on these quick picks and given my picking history.

IND @ HOU
JAX @ TEN
BAL @ TB
DEN # NYJ
DET @ MIN
NE @ BUF
CAR @ CIN
PIT @ CLE
GB @ MIA
SD @ OAK
CHI @ ATL
DAL @ SEA
WSH @ ARI
NYG @ PHI
SF @ STL

Hard to trust. You gained a whole lot on everybody with your away picks (even big vs Vegas), which as funny as it is, came when those teams led (teams who score first or lead after the 1st Qtr have a winning chance of no less than between 67-70%, depending the source) after the kickoff was 1 1/2 hour before.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Oh my... my Hofa-Bafa took a big hit tonight... and my perfect "sure loser" season got spoiled by... well... Seattle of all.

Defense figured out? Did Romo attack deep as I preached since pre playoffs last season? Like Cousins did? Well, if those coaches only listened to me earlier... we would not have had to endure a Seahawks championship season when opposing teams tried the impossible: Dink and dunk their way trou the game vs effective tacklers and tight coverage. That efforts were like to try to square the circle. Too bad...

Anyway, dynasty over before it even begun. That´s faster than even me expected (speak before the D falls apart when Wilson captures a big chunk of the cap). My condolences to all Seahawks fans.

 

[Merckx index]

Foxxy´s HFA-BAF picks:
After a well thought process & evaluating the weekly injury report for hours... skip that... Took me the usual 30 seconds: All home, but the DEN and SD games.

So wanna say you have a chance this week against my HFA-BAF™...
Let´s see. I am confident as always...

By my count, nine home teams lost this week, plus one tie (and two more games to go). So you correctly picked Denver and SD, lost on all the others?

I’ve weighed in on this before, particularly in the postseason. HFA is real, but it’s not so significant that you should dismiss other factors. Of the nine home teams that lost this week, only SE was a real shock. Of the remaining two games, I would expect the 49ers to win in St. Louis. Of course, anything is possible, the 49ers are definitely vulnerable, but if you go by percentages, there really isn't a rationale for picking the Rams. Whatever HFA they have, it doesn't outweigh the talent difference on the two teams.

BUF
MI
NYJ
OAK
MIN
TB
ATL
SE
HOU

I was going to pick DAL like some others for survival, but I thought an upset was possible, so I went with OAK, though I thought an upset was also possible. And the Raiders almost pulled it off. The Dallas-Seattle game, though, really wasn't that close, the Seahawks scored twice on special teams, and except for one 50+ yard pass play, Wilson had < 75 yards passing.

Murray became the second running back in NFL history to start a season with six straight 100-yard rushing games, matching Jim Brown. And he did it against the league's best run defense, which had not allowed a running back more than 38 yards in a game this season.

The 49ers can be thankful they played Dallas in the first game, when Romo still was throwing INTs. Two of the Niners' wins have come over teams that have lost only to them, Dallas and Philly (so far). Plus they lost to an AZ team that has lost only to Denver. So tough early schedule, their opponents are a combined 18-9, or 16-6 vs. teams other than the 49ers. And they're doing it without Vernon Davis on offense, and Smith and Bowman on defense.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I’ve weighed in on this before, particularly in the postseason. HFA is real, but it’s not so significant that you should dismiss other factors.

Well, I tried the "other factors", the great Brian Burke tries with a computer program (with regressions, factors in "predictive stats" such as Y/PP, HFA, penalties, strength of Schedule, and what else), Vegas tries (factoring everything like Burke + injuries)... and in the end of the day: My 2-seconds-picks led them all (yes inclusive Vegas) respectively were in a tie. So without all the stress and studies, I was as good as them. Now, after todays disaster, I guess am just a little bit behind. IOW: HFA is the strongest factor by far, if including "sure" away picks (minimum 6-7 point favs, which means Vegas gives those teams at least a circa 75% win chance)... I am still confident to prevail in the end.

 

[leftover pie]

cowboys ruined a few cyclingnews reverse survival loserbowl perfect seasons, who'd a thunk it?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Whatever HFA they have, it doesn't outweigh the talent difference on the two teams.

I would like to disagree: While home teams all over the place win roughly 20% (!!) more games at home than away, the talent level difference between SEA and JAX is maybe 2-3%... 44 world class athlets (& some special team warriors), the top of the top, battle it out every Sunday (& some other days nowadays )... all superstars coming out of college. The 0.1% of the best players born (ok, don´t count that for the QB position. Scouts have major flaws in their recruting criterias here)... the difference makers are good/bad bounces (speak randomness), good/bad play calling, morale (another major factor, unluckily you can´t predict when and if players give in in a brutal losing battle, but it happens every week), and HFA, the only certain thing...

Go Rams

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

\Defense figured out? Did Romo attack deep as I preached since pre playoffs last season? Like Cousins did?

They controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They ran, and ran, and ran some more. Even when it looked like the Seattle defense started to stop their run, they still ran the ball. And they protected Romo repeatedly, time and again.

On defense it was the opposite. They did what everyone wants to do, they stuffed the line to contain Lynch, and force Wilson to throw and not run. They challenged Seattle and Wilson to make quick throws and timing throws, and Seattle couldn't execute. Basically, they out Seahawk'd the Seahawks, and it was impressive.

Dallas now has three home games in a row. NYG, WASH and Ariz. This is coming after Romo said last week the win over Houston seemed like an away game due to quiet fans. Well, they'll have something to cheer about now. After that stretch, they play at Jax, then into the bye week, where they feasibly could be 9-1. They don't play the Eagles until week 13.

And several of us are now done in survival football. Me included.

The other team that looked surprisingly good was Cleveland from what I saw, steamrolling the Steelers by 3 TDs. Denver and SD barely escaped with wins against weak opposition. The Raiders were fired up, but Denver just looked flat for much of the game. I simply don't believe in them. And finally, Philadelphia is demolishing the Giants, 27-0 in the 3rd. This is the team I think a lot of people expected to see. Even though Foles has thrown two picks, they look like a juggernaut. They just had a yardage stat up, and it was something like 411 to 130.

 

[roman law]

well done... good post

http://www.soran.edu.iq

 

[Oldman]

Oh my... my Hofa-Bafa took a big hit tonight... and my perfect "sure loser" season got spoiled by... well... Seattle of all.

Defense figured out? Did Romo attack deep as I preached since pre playoffs last season? Like Cousins did? Well, if those coaches only listened to me earlier... we would not have had to endure a Seahawks championship season when opposing teams tried the impossible: Dink and dunk their way trou the game vs effective tacklers and tight coverage. That efforts were like to try to square the circle. Too bad...

Anyway, dynasty over before it even begun. That´s faster than even me expected (speak before the D falls apart when Wilson captures a big chunk of the cap). My condolences to all Seahawks fans.

Seattle had that game coming, not looking that great the week before.
Wide receivers allowed themselves to get crowded, ala' Seattle's own technique. The O line handled zero pressure from the outside and Wilson missed some obvious open receivers (he's bought into the super-hype, my biggest fear). You don't need to do that too many series before you're on your heels...WR Doug Baldwin was not happy.
That and Romo's O line got missed on about 3 more holding calls.

 

[The Hitch]

I said there should be 1 strike in survival football at the beginning, but others have played on, so I see no reason why, seeing as how its a small community, we can't all continue to make picks, and just count how many strikes we have.

I myself now have 1 but i made the pick knowing the drama from a cowboys win at century link would be way more exciting than the disappointment of getting a strike here.

I still have no idea how it happened. I switched off immediately after the blocked punt. At that stage Seattle had walked all over the Cobwoys defense down the field, got a 3 and out on Dallas, injured Romo with the commentators wondering if he would come back out on the field, and then Seattle blocked the punt and scored for 10-0. I thought the game was over and went to do something else.

Then it turns out not only did Dallas win, they also fumbled a kick return to give Seattle another touch down.

What the hell happened

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

See my previous post. Dallas beat them on both sides of the line, contained Wilson from the outside, and stopped Seattle's screen game. This forced Seattle to throw down the field or timing patterns, and they couldn't execute with any consistency. The Cowboys also did a great job of mixing up the run game. On numerous plays Seattle stopped them, but Dallas refused to give up running. Seattle on the other hand, basically did when faced with the same situation. Dallas changed directions running, used multiple backs, they did what Seattle does running, and did it well (and Seattle did not). The win was not a fluke.

Having said that, it would be a big mistake to count Seattle out.

WR Doug Baldwin was not happy.

He sure wasn't, and he's right. The entire offense had a hard time sustaining drives. Wilson missed throws, and receivers didn't fight to get open. Here's a quote from Doug, I think he's spot on:

"We have to quit BS-ing ourselves. We've got to be real with ourselves...When we get in the meeting room, we've got to actually pay attention to things and not blow smoke up our tails that everything's going to be all right.

Seattle is 3-2, and if SF can beat St. Louis tonight, that will put Seattle in third place in that division.