Survival: CAR
Past picks: MIA*, NYJ, MIN, TE, BUF*, OAK, StL*, BAL, JAX, CHI, TB*, WASH, ATL*
My “kiss of life” jinx did it again. Got an underdog team you desperately want to win? Let me pick it for survival, and it will win*. Did anyone think Atlanta had a prayer against AZ, even at home? Sure enough, they won, and it wasn't that close. NO also won, so I guess the NFC South winner will at least be 6-10, and I’d put my money on the Saints.
I had second thoughts after picking Atlanta, thinking I should have taken SF, and I will almost certainly take them in two weeks when they play in Seattle. After the way they played at home, I just see no way they can beat the Seahawks in the Clink. This is not a team that has ups and downs, looking really good some games, and not so good other games. They have been consistently a little better than mediocre all season.
*Sorry, Amster, even my powers of wrong prediction weren’t strong enough to help Washington last week. But even they almost won a game that wasn’t supposed to be close.
All this is further fueling the Harbaugh will be gone talk, with rumors that the Raiders and the Jets might be among his suitors. I still think the 49ers would be nuts to let him go, assuming he would stay if asked at this point. This is his worst season by far, and they still have a shot at the playoffs, and will almost certainly finish above .500. I don’t know what’s wrong with the offense, but the defense is playing pretty well now, considering all the pieces aren’t there.
Elimination. The following teams are left: NE, DEN, SD, AZ, SF, GB, PHI, DA
To be removed this week: SF, AZ. I’m regretting a little eliminating SE. They now can win the division if they win their remaining games, and almost certainly will be a WC in any case. But then they will have to win three games on the road.
RGIII’s
plummeting value:
Of the five evaluators contacted about Griffin, one believed Washington might be able to get a conditional third-round pick for him, two believed a fourth-rounder was fair value, one said a fifth-round pick and one suggested a sixth-round pick that moves as high as a fourth-rounder based on how much and how well Griffin plays with his new team.
Of the possible teams that might be interested in Griffin, two seem especially interesting. One is the Rams, who might be giving up on Bradford. That would be ironic, because Washington got Griffin by trading all those first round picks to the Rams for the second pick overall in 2012. If the Rams got RGIII for a relatively low round pick, it would complete Washington’s utter humiliation on the deal, and for the Rams be almost like getting him for free.
The other is the Eagles. Coming out of college, RGIII seemed the perfect QB to run Kelly’s system, which at Oregon always involved a guy who could run as well as throw. The question is, does Kelly want to consider replacing Foles? His performance before he got injured this year was quite a decline from last year, though to be fair, very few QBs in history have performed better than Foles did last year. Or maybe Kelly would view Griffin as just a backup. But if any coach in the NFL can get the best out of RGIII, it ought to be Kelly.
Speaking of Chip Kelly, could this be his big year? Consider:
1) the Eagles are genuine SB contenders, with about as good a shot at winning it as any team right now
2) Oregon, which Kelly built into the team it is today, is one win away from making the new college playoff, meaning it has a real shot at winning its first national championship. If that happens, Kelly will deservedly be given a lot of credit for it.
3) Marcus Mariota, whom Kelly recruited and developed, is the favorite for the Heisman Trophy. If he plays fairly well at the Pac 12 Conference Championship game this Friday, I think he’ll win it.
And I can’t think of a better national championship matchup than Alabama vs. Oregon, which could happen if they both win their final games and finish 1-2 in the rankings. Arguably, they have been the best two teams in the country during the past five years. Bama has all the titles, but Oregon has been consistently one of the winningest teams during that stretch, undefeated in one regular season and making it to one national championship game, and in the hunt until late in the season in the other years. I think a lot of people really want to see those two teams play each other.