National Football League

[on3m@n@rmy]

NFC Playoff Picture

And now for the NFC playoff picture (This one is much clearer):

NFC EAST (battle for division title, no wild cards here):
Giants (8-7) remaining game: vs. DALLAS (8-7)
Cowboys (8-7) remaining game: @GIANTS (8-7)
Eagles (7-8) remaining game: vs. SKINS (5-10)

NFC EAST (projected final standings):
1. Giants (9-7) – wins final vs. DALLAS, wins division
2. Eagles (8-8) – wins final @SKINS. ?-Team almost make playoffs after horrific start
3. Cowboys (8-8) – Jerry Jones “scares” team into losing last 2 games

NFC SOUTH (projected final standings with 2 games remaining):
Saints (13-3) – already clinched division, wins last 2 vs. FALCONS & PANTHERS
Falcons (10-6) – clinches final playoff spot in last of 2 games (@SAINTS, vs. BUCS)

NFC NORTH (projected final standings):
Packers (15-1) – already clinched division, wins final vs. LIONS
Lions (10-6) – already clinched playoff spot, loses final @PACKERS

NFC WEST (projected final standings):
49ers (13-3) – already clinched division, wins final @RAMS

 

[Merckx index]

I don’t know how you guys are seeing a Baltimore-Houston title game. This is one likely seeding scenario:

New England
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
Pittsburgh
Oakland/NYJ/Tennessee

So Pittsburgh plays Denver and Oakland or other no. 6 plays Houston. If Houston wins, they play Baltimore in a Division game, while the winner of Pittsburgh vs. Denver plays NE. The Division matchups are determined by the winner of no. 3 vs. no. 6, if Houston wins, they have to play the no. 2 seed.

There are, of course, a lot of permutations still possible. But the only ways I can see Baltimore and Houston meeting in the title game is if a) Baltimore get the top seed—meaning NE loses its last game and Baltimore wins; or b) Baltimore loses its last game (very possible against a Cincy team fighting for survival), the Steelers win theirs, so Baltimore is the no. 5 seed. In either of those scenarios, Baltimore and Houston could meet in the title game. But I doubt very much they would. Both NE and Pittsburgh would have to fall on the way.

I like NE for the SB, though if Pittsburgh gets the 2d seed, let alone the first, I might favor the Steelers. Yes, the Pats have the worst defense in the NFL and the worst pass defense, but right now it looks like none of other playoff teams have a very good passer, except Pittsburgh, assuming Ben gets healthy, which is looking at two road games just to get into the title game, or Houston if Schaub comes back. Houston might in fact be the only complete team in the entire playoffs—solid offensively and defensively--IF they get all their offensive weapons back, but will they? If Schaub isn’t even practicing yet, it’s dubious he can get back in form in time to help much.

In the NFC, I agree with Alpe that Saints-49ers could be a great game. Home field advantage will be critical, as the Saints do not play as well on natural grass as in their dome, particularly on defense. But either way, you have Brees, about to set a new single season passing yardage record vs. the 49er defense (best by far in the NFL against the run, but somewhat vulnerable to the pass).

Tomorrow’s Saints-Falcons game could decide that, and have other implications as well. If the Falcons win, the 49ers are locked into the 2d seed. So they rest their starters against the Rams, and maybe the Rams win. If that happens, Indy is back in the Luck picture. What would the Rams do with the no. 1 pick, anyway? Draft Luck and trade Bradford? Trade the pick for several other high draft choices?

GB looks the likely SB team from that conference. I think the only team that could beat them is the Saints, in a shootout, but again, at Lambeau the Saints would be somewhat at a disadvantage.

Generally speaking, I think this is the year of offense, particularly passing. Five QBs have reached 4500 yards--once a virtually unattainable number--with a sixth, Rivers, quite likely. You have a rookie, Cam Newton, about to reach 4000 yards, and running for about as many more as the two very good RBs on his team. I mean, if Cam Newton had not thrown a pass all season, his rushing yardage alone would be excellent for a rookie. Even with terrible defense, Carolina has played pretty well, knocking off some good teams after a slow start. This is what the really good teams with elite, experienced QBs--GB, NO, NE--do routinely. They overwhelm other teams' defenses. Good defensive teams may slow down these aerial attacks a little, but I don’t think they can score enough to stay in the game.

GB vs. NE in the Superbowl? The two best offenses vs. the two worst defenses? The two best passers vs. the two worst pass defenses? And NO vs. NE would be much the same. Over-under of total points in either game should be around 80.

Or we might get a great offense vs. great defense. GB or NO vs. Baltimore or Pittsburgh. Less likely, SF vs. NE. I think all those would be excellent matchups. What I hope we don’t get is two great defensive teams, like SF vs. Pitt or Baltimore. We’ve already seen those games, and they promise all the excitement second time around as LSU vs. Alabama. This from a 49er fan.

 

[Tank Engine]

Some teams looked terrible. Dallas, both NY teams, Denver.
The Saints will get the other seed, and either NYGiants or Dallas, both of whom looked terrible the last few weeks.

After the Giants won, the Cowboys played very conservatively, as the result of the Eagles game became pretty meaningless. Jones has a hamstring problem, Romo injured his hand, so they disappeared after the 1st quarter. Still, they've been pretty unconvincing over 15 weeks (as have the Giants), so it will be at least a tension filled game.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

GB vs. NE in the Superbowl? The two best offenses vs. the two worst defenses? The two best passers vs. the two worst pass defenses? And NO vs. NE would be much the same. Over-under of total points in either game should be around 80.

Or we might get a great offense vs. great defense. GB or NO vs. Baltimore or Pittsburgh. Less likely, SF vs. NE. I think all those would be excellent matchups. What I hope we don’t get is two great defensive teams, like SF vs. Pitt or Baltimore. We’ve already seen those games, and they promise all the excitement second time around as LSU vs. Alabama. This from a 49er fan.

I'll puke if a defensively bottom dwelling team such as NE or GB make the SB (OAK too). Even if they do have great offenses. I'd much rather see teams with stronger defenses make it to the SB (like NO, ATL, SF, BAL, PIT, HOU). Otherwise, it'll be nothing more than most NBA games where you just have to watch the last 2 minutes and he who has the ball last wins, or almost wins.

Personally, my most interesting SB matchup would be SF vs. BAL, HOU, or PIT.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Actually, the Packers defense isn't that bad. They're bad in yardage given up, but not so much in points. You also have to consider that their offense is so potent that they are frequently ahead in games, often by double digits, so the only goal at that point becomes containing the other team and keeping them from getting a lot of TD's, which they do. They also lead the league in interceptions. They're in the middle of the pack as far as points allowed.

The Pats are in the middle of the pack with points allowed as well, but they've also had less games where they took a big lead the way the Packers do, and they've won a few games by the skin of their teeth they perhaps should have lost. This is why I think they are vulnerable in the playoffs.

Looking at the stats, the best defense in the NFL may be the Seahawks if you can believe that. They rank sixth in points allowed, and 10th in yards, but are on a team with a weak offense that was horrible the first half of the season.

Reading up, I would guess Matt Schaub is done for the season. The surgery he had often puts a player out for a few months, and I've heard no update on him at all even working out. Mario Williams has been supposedly recovering very quickly, but even he isn't working out with the team, so I don't see Houston winning it all. But next year...

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Ok, I guess I did not look at red zone defense. And if considering that it might/should make for a better game that I feared say if GB or NE made it to the Super Bowl.

Too bad for Schaub. Was wondering what his status is.

My Xmas wish for next year (or this year belated) is a new QB for Seattle. I just hope they don't give up the farm to get in position to get one.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Some links for you. First, a list of top college prospects, regardless of position. RG3 and Brandon Weeden (OK State) have jumped huge spots in the last month. Same with Kirk Cousins. Landry Jones, Ryan Tannenhill and Case Keenum have dropped.

Courtesy of a former NFL scout writing a blog for the Seahawks, he goes into detail on why he thought the Seahawks were willing to give up the farm for Barkley, and how he now doesn't think they will take a QB in the first round. It's a fascinating read. He also talks about why he no longer likes Jones or Tannenhill in the first round, and wouldn't draft them, but why he does like RG3, whom he analyzes very well.

Geeky football insider info, but very informative.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Wow. Thanks for those links. I have not checked them out yet but will for sure.

Well, 5087 and counting. That's the NO Saints QB Drew Brees' total passing yards this season to date. (I know you all know that by now, but it is just amazing. Plus he did it making amazing plays again tonight.) And still one week of the regular season to go. This breaks the record of 5084 set by Dan Marino in 1984. Imagine if the lockout had not ended and the 2011 NFL season played a shortened season like the NBA is doing. Congrats to him and his team for helping make that happen.

 

[nvpacchi]

Oh heck yes! He does not get the recognition as a football player that he deserves because of the 3 years spent in the USFL with the New Jersey Generals. He did make 2 Pro Bowls, but no Hall of Fame. He had 3 great years in his first stint with Dallas, and a few decent years afterwards, but did not amount to much after the blockbuster trade that sent him to the Vikes for 11 players (something like 5 players and 6 draft picks!!).

ESPN "30 for 30" just ran an excellent documentary on Herschel, including interviews with his mom and him. ESPN did a nice job of showing him on the field, but more importantly included an explanation of his youth and how he became the force he was. Apparently, he was picked on a lot as a kid and beat up once. He said that getting beat up would never happen again. So he started working out on his own doing sit-ups and pushups all night long after finishing homework. He would race railroad trains along the tracks, drag car tires containing 10 pound shots connected to his waist with a rope. Because of his harsh treatment by other kids growing up, he developed alter personalities to cope, something he carried with him to adulthood. That part was sad, but I have to admire what he accomplished.

Sorry I don't have the link to the ESPN 30 for 30 video. I looked but could not find it. It was something they aired this week. But I did find these, some footage of which was in the ESPN 30 for 30 segment.

Video Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ahIRO1HSL4
SEC Storied - Herschel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfI_6KaAw94&feature=related

I don't know if this story is entirely true, but here it is anyway....
Walker was a freshman at Georgia, and the entire team was lining up for the bench press max-out contest. Since Walker didn't lift weights (pushups, pullups, and situps in his repertoire) he tried to hide in an attempt to skip out on the bench press. His teammates finally realized he didn't complete his lift yet, and made him participate.

Needless to say he lifted 400+ pounds on his first lift, breaking the Georgia Football maxout record.

His teammates and coaching staff never made him lift another weight again.

I so wish I was old enough to see Walker play football. Besides Bo Jackson he may be the best pure athlete to ever play football, and Olympic Bobsled

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

You left out ballet, and MMA fighting.

No doubt, the guy is an incredible athlete. Along with Jerry Rice he has to rank as the fittest, most disciplined football player maybe ever. In his last year in the USFL he gained a staggering 2,411 yards in the 18 game season. Granted, this wasn't the NFL, but I think that could definitely be extrapolated to something close to a 2,000 yard season had he been on the Cowboys (where he ended up after the USFL's collapse). Combining USFL and NFL stats, he ran for over 13k yards and would be 5th all time.

I think the real shame though is Walker's lost years in Minnesota, and Philadelphia. The Vikings gave up the farm to get him, the coaching staff didn't know how to use him and had a sweep/spread offense which didn't fit his style, and as a result we never fully saw his full potential, or the same Walker we did in the USFL or Dallas. The guy who should have walked away as the greatest running back in NFL history, instead has a legacy marred by poor management and coaching decisions in the second half of his career.

Bo Jackson definitely had superior talent as well. Though I don't think he was quite the force, nor had the focus that Walker did. Bo also ended up with too many injuries, as has been well documented.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Most elite athlete/players generally want to tackle the more difficult challenges. So my only slight disappointment with Walker is that he chose the big easy money of the USFL instead of the tougher challenges in the NFL. However, he came from a poor background and had other priorities, so I understand. I just wish he could have done more in the NFL. From his interviews posted earlier, he seemed like a quiet, soft spoken, humble man.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Back to NFL QB's. Don't be too surprised if Denver tries to deal Tebow in the off season. I can see them trading him most likely to one of the Florida teams, both of whom need a QB. Jacksonville especially needs to fill seats as well, and I could see them giving up Blaine Gabbert and a pick for Tebow.

Look at it this way. Tebow's style is very difficult to coach. It involves running every 4th or 5th play by the QB, which doesn't happen often in the NFL, and a fair amount of 3rd, 4th receiver options off an improvisation. This can win you games, and be very exciting, and it definitely has. But it's not what Elway and Denver coaches have wanted. Gabbert has been somewhat of a bust in Jacksonville, taken 10th in the draft with high hopes. But I think it's because too much was placed on him, the team stinks overall and changed coaches mid season, and his confidence is starting to get crushed at the age of 21. If he stays in Jacksonville without support he'll be the next David Carr. But if he goes to Denver with a coaching staff willing to nurture him and be patient with him and work with him, and the blessing of Bronco "elder" John Elway, and they pick up a veteran QB to share playing time with him next season, he could do well there. Plus, Tebow could energize Jacksonville, both as a team, and especially the fans.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Bengals Jerome Simpson's flip into the end zone was pretty spectacular:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/12/jerome-simpson-flip-a-video-clip-that-must-be-seen.html

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Yeah, saw that when it happened. Play of the year maybe!

With the QB frenzy likely to happen in the off-season, teams not in the Luck or Griffin sweeps, and not wanting to take Jones or Tannenhill might look to some current QB's likely to be up for grabs next year. Here's a list of guys who are backing someone up (or will be next year for certain) but could be starting in the right situation for the right team. Or were hurt at the wrong time. Or once highly touted, but slipped for whatever the reason and could be worth a gamble:

Jason Campbell (Oak), Matt Flynn (GB), Matt Cassell (KC), Vince Young (Philly), TJ Yates (Hou), Ryan Mallet (NE), Dan Orlovsky (Ind), Chad Henne (Mia), Jimmy Clausen (Car), Dennis Dixon (Pitt).

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Yeah, this whole QB thing in the offseason could get real interesting. Ppl will either be going 'Yessssssss' or 'Arrrrrrrgh'. I also don't think the Broncos are so interested in Tebow that they will keep him at all costs. Another way to put it, if Denver offered something decent in return for Tebow there is a good chance they will take it. But it will almost have to include a QB in exchange, unless they can trade up in the draft high enough to get one of these sought after rookie QBs.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Yeah, saw that when it happened. Play of the year maybe!

The whole aerial was amazing. But what put the icing on the cake was how well he stuck the landing... "10".

BTW, been meaning to ask, are you a member of ESPN Insider? I was just wondering if it is worth it and thought you might be.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Bengals Jerome Simpson's flip into the end zone was pretty spectacular:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/12/jerome-simpson-flip-a-video-clip-that-must-be-seen.html

It was unbelievable! As everyone points out, particularly so because of the perfect landing. Absolutely the (novelty) highlight of the year.

I can certainly think of one east coast team that could desperately use a QB who can make a difference and win the occasional game on his own. Seriously Alpe, what makes you think that Timmy T might become available?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I can certainly think of one east coast team that could desperately use a QB who can make a difference and win the occasional game on his own.

Washington will almost certainly end up with either Luck or probably Griffin (or Manning or Bradford). Mark my words.

I'm sorry to say though that the Redskins are a real risk for either young QB. One can argue the team has money and a solid seasoned coach. But that team has been a black hole for talented players and young QB's for some. They wasted whatever career Colt Brennan may have had for example, and Jason Campbell would tell you the same. Plus, Daniel Snyder is one of the worst owners in sports. Very impatient, obstinate, and meddling.

Seriously Alpe, what makes you think that Timmy T might become available?

Thought I explained my reasoning fairly well a couple posts ago! He probably doesn't fit into what John Elway or John Fox seek as a QB to nurture for the future. Tebow wins with an unorthadox style that is difficult to coach or prepare for. They may perceive him at his highest value right now and a risk for the future. Plus they are likely to get something very good in return.

Look at it this way, I'd much rather have Tebow instead of Blaine Gabbert and another offensive lineman and a lower pick in the draft. Certainly next year; maybe for the next decade. But to the Broncos, they may be willing to eat next season, and some of the backlash, and be looking beyond 2012 using the logic I posted before.

Put another way, in Jacksonville, Tebow could do even better than in Denver. And if Gabbert stays in Jax he's the next David Carr or Joey Harrington (or Josh Freeman!). He also can't go somewhere like Miami or Kansas City, he'd die there. But somewhere like Denver where he'd have a year to grow and sit on the bench, with a team ready to have him start sometime in the future he could do well.

Again, this is just speculation. I'm only saying it's possible. It's also possible they'll state flat out that Tim's off the market and their guy and put a lot of time and effort into him in the off season. Improving his throwing motion, working on his deep reads, working on his timing with receivers in short slants and screens, etc. and he'll win even more games than this year.

One thing's for sure, the guy is going to sell out stadiums in nearly every game he plays in, so any owner in the NFL is going to want him.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Washington will almost certainly end up with either Luck or probably Griffin (or Manning or Bradford). Mark my words.

I'm sorry to say though that the Redskins are a real risk for either young QB. One can argue the team has money and a solid seasoned coach. But that team has been a black hole for talented players and young QB's for some... ......Plus, Daniel Snyder is one of the worst owners in sports. Very impatient, obstinate, and meddling.

....One thing's for sure, the guy is going to sell out stadiums in nearly every game he plays in, so any owner in the NFL is going to want him.

I had seen your previous post, just wondered if you were privy to any information that maybe wasn't public yet. Your informed speculation will do for me!

Yes, Snyder............there are some who believe that it won't ever come right again as long as he's there.

edited to add -

Can't remember when I've had as much fun as watching the commercial-free re-run of the Washington vs. Baylor game! In case anyone missed it, Baylor won 67-56 in a game that saw 1397 yds. of total offense!!!!!

No defense at all, one amazing score after another, all kinds of records broken, breathless entertainment. Also, this was my first real good look at RG3, and even though this wasn't one of his more impressives games (so we were told,) I was still pretty impressed!

 

[The Gnome]

Washington will almost certainly end up with either Luck or probably Griffin (or Manning or Bradford). Mark my words.

I'm sorry to say though that the Redskins are a real risk for either young QB. One can argue the team has money and a solid seasoned coach. But that team has been a black hole for talented players and young QB's for some. They wasted whatever career Colt Brennan may have had for example, and Jason Campbell would tell you the same. Plus, Daniel Snyder is one of the worst owners in sports. Very impatient, obstinate, and meddling.

Thought I explained my reasoning fairly well a couple posts ago! He probably doesn't fit into what John Elway or John Fox seek as a QB to nurture for the future. Tebow wins with an unorthadox style that is difficult to coach or prepare for. They may perceive him at his highest value right now and a risk for the future. Plus they are likely to get something very good in return.

Look at it this way, I'd much rather have Tebow instead of Blaine Gabbert and another offensive lineman and a lower pick in the draft. Certainly next year; maybe for the next decade. But to the Broncos, they may be willing to eat next season, and some of the backlash, and be looking beyond 2012 using the logic I posted before.

Put another way, in Jacksonville, Tebow could do even better than in Denver. And if Gabbert stays in Jax he's the next David Carr or Joey Harrington (or Josh Freeman!). He also can't go somewhere like Miami or Kansas City, he'd die there. But somewhere like Denver where he'd have a year to grow and sit on the bench, with a team ready to have him start sometime in the future he could do well.

Again, this is just speculation. I'm only saying it's possible. It's also possible they'll state flat out that Tim's off the market and their guy and put a lot of time and effort into him in the off season. Improving his throwing motion, working on his deep reads, working on his timing with receivers in short slants and screens, etc. and he'll win even more games than this year.

One thing's for sure, the guy is going to sell out stadiums in nearly every game he plays in, so any owner in the NFL is going to want him.

The only teams who might want him are going to be mediocre ones...no way would a steelers, a patriots, even a giants want him...and yes, they have good qb's...but no way are you correct...he is a semi good qb and only a semi good team will take him...it is pure hype...the kid is a lousy qb in my opinion...as for Manning going to the skins...are you on something? can I have some?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

There is no way Manning and Luck play on the same team. Manning has said so himself. So there's a chance the Colts will draft Luck and trade Manning - similar to the way the 49ers traded Joe Montana when Steve Young was taking over. Montana had two good years in KC, one with a playoff win, and I could see Manning doing that elsewhere. Maybe Washington is one team. The issue is money, they'd have to eat Manning's huge contract.

Skill wise, Tebow is average (right now) but he is a good leader and motivates those around him with an infectious positive attitude. You are right in that a team with a QB in place already won't take him, nor would a winning team. This is why I said Jacksonville is a good place for him. It's a new, young team that's rebuilding. Jacksonville is sub average, needs help, and unless he has some sort of special breakout game this week, Blaine Gabbert isn't their answer. There are other teams who would be interested too, obviously.

I'm starting to think the Rams may get Luck though. They play against the 49ers who are excellent and need to win. And the Colts are playing decent with Orolovsky against the horrible Jaguars and could very well win. The Rams would then trade Luck away for another team's top pick, plus an offensive lineman, plus another common player or another pick deeper in the draft. I think Bradford can be fine with the Rams for years, they just badly need offensive line help, and another good receiver.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Week 17 Picks:

Detroit @ Green Bay - Lions may need the win, Packers will rest after a few possessions.
SF49 at St.L - 49ers win means a bye, and they are by far the better team.
NYJ at Miami - Jets slide continues I think.
Chicago at Minn - Bears were once 7-3.
Buff at NE - Pats win means HFA, and they will do just that.
Carolina at NO - Saints likely have 3rd seed, thus likely to rest some.
Wash at Philly - Skins prepare for off season overhaul.
Indy at Jax - If Colts lose they get #1 pick, but are playing well, and Jax isn't.
Tenn at Houston - Tennessee has a very outside chance of playoffs. Houston has #3 seed locked up.
Tampa at Atl - Bucs a team with many problems.
Balt at Cincy - Big game. If Ravens win they get bye. Bengals win, they're in.
Pitt at Cleveland - Steelers win and Ravens loss means #3 seed.
KC at Denver - Orton will be motivated, but Broncos need win to secure playoff berth.
SD at Oak - Raiders have outside chance to win. Chargers search for new coach soon.
Sea at Ari - Both teams playing fairly well of late.
Dallas at NY Giants - Winner goes on, loser goes home. Romo will play, hurt.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Week 17 Picks:

Sure can't debate those picks too much. If I had to pick differently, maaaaaaybe I'd go with:
- Detroit @ Green Bay - I hate to see teams just lay down cos they are in.
- Carolina at NO - I can't see Saints letting Car take this on the Saints home turf.
- Tenn at Houston - coin toss.
- Balt at Cincy - Cincy could pull off an upset. But I'd still take Balt.

Other than that, what a way for Dallas to not finish the season with 2 games to go. They had it in their grasp, but likely will start the offseason early.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Sure can't debate those picks too much. If I had to pick differently, maaaaaaybe I'd go with:
- Detroit @ Green Bay - I hate to see teams just lay down cos they are in.
- Carolina at NO - I can't see Saints letting Car take this on the Saints home turf.
- Tenn at Houston - coin toss.
- Balt at Cincy - Cincy could pull off an upset. But I'd still take Balt.

Other than that, what a way for Dallas to not finish the season with 2 games to go. They had it in their grasp, but likely will start the offseason early.

You diverge from Alpe's picks in exactly the same way that I do, and for the same reasons!

 

[fatandfast]

Alpe if the West goes into a huge tie with 8-8 is the playoff pick for inter conference record?