National Football League

[on3m@n@rmy]

First of all, hope you all like my new avatar. I feel embarrassed. But that comes a long with losing a bet. Thanks ATL

Oh yes. They keep the worst ever coach in sports history for another year. It´s disgusting. What a waste of talent. Yes even Rex Ryan would have won some SB´s with this great group of players. Now the window of opportunity is closing forever for SD. What a sad sad story...

I like that fail avatar Foxxy. And I'd say it definately fits the requirement that the avatar has to hurt to display it.

I feel sorry for SoCal SD fans, or SD fans anywhere. Eagles kept Andy Reid too, which IMO was a smart move.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I like that fail avatar Foxxy. And I'd say it definately fits the requirement that the avatar has to hurt to display it.

I feel sorry for SoCal SD fans, or SD fans anywhere. Eagles kept Andy Reid too, which IMO was a smart move.

Thank you that this is enough for you to fit the bet. It was a tight race...

Here is my yearly complete Playoff preview (after the short version of yesterday)

AFC:

1. PIT
+ finished 1st as usual in Pass-D (4,87 Y/PP allowed). Performed better than the famous Bears in 84,85 and 86;
finished 1st in the killer Stat of them all: Y/PP-Difference (6,98 on Offense = 9th and as said 4,87 = 1st in Defense; that makes it + 2,11)
- Scoring-Offense. They simply score to less points (21st in the NFL)
I still hope they won´t win the SB. If happening, expect wins like 20-10, 16-13, 10-7 and 17-10. After all the old song of "Defense wins championships" will appear and the criminal once again will be hailed as "Big Ben". Oh no!

2. NE
+ Pass-O (7,89 Y/PP = 2nd in NFL)
- The D (7,14 Y/PP = 29th). Thus, Brady has to be great in every game. I still hope they make it. Scores like 38-35, 35-27 and 44-41 will come. That would be great. Pats go Pats!

3. HOU
+ Besides all the injuries they are very good, b/c the Pass-D (2nd in Y/PP at 5,21) keeps the games close for Yates or even Delhomme. They´ll go far.
- The injuries...

4. BAL
+ 3rd best Pass D (5,39 Y/PP). As usual it´s the D that brings them in the playoffs.
- It seems BAL has the same problem as CHI: They can´t draft QB´s. Flacco isn´t the deal. I love his arm strenght, but after that it´s all inconsistent year after year (19th in NFL in Y/PP w/a 5,93 Y/PP).

5. CIN
+ 4th best Pass D (5,8 Y/PP)
- Pass-O (17th w/a 5,96 Y/PP)

6. DEN
+ ---
- They are the Seahawks of 2011. This team don´t belong into the playoffs. They get out-scored, out-passed and depend on pure luck when winning. I hope for one more win like this (vs. PIT), but it´s unrealstic to think it will happen.... I got caught in the Tebow-Hype and made one of the stupidest bets of all time (not here at cycnews, but in "my" NFL-Sports-Bar after too many beers).


NFC:

1. NO
+ 3rd best Pass O (7,79 Y/PP). Peyton is the coach of the year. He preaches balance to please the mainstream, but every year he rightfully goes pass wacky. That´s smart. A nice by-product: Surprsingly finished 4th (!!) in rushing offense (4,94 Y/R). It´s the pass that sets up the run (if you wan´t to win. May Norv the Smurf will find out when he is 80). Not the other way around.
I rank NO over GB, b/c they at least field a average Pass D (16th w/a 6,31 Y/PP allowed), thus allow to have Brees one average game. Something Brady and Rodgers can´t afford to have. But history shows that every great QB has some so so days...
- as mentioned the D has some weak spots

2. GB
+ Best Pass O (8,3 Y/PP). They seem unstoppable. I hope they meet NO for the greatest ever NFC Championship-Game... BTW, that was my prediction after i saw those teams in Week one, as everyone might remember (i am not sure if i posted it here, but made that bold prediction in the Bar at least. I couldn´t believe this clubs were putting on the greatest precise passing show i ever saw between two teams)
- Pass D (30th w/a 7,2 Y/PP). They can´t stop anybody. All the Int´s hide this weakness. But turnovers are random or come late when teams play the desperation mode. So you can´t count on them in tight games. Thus, GB is in big time trouble. Every SB-Winner needed at least a average Pass D (if fielding a good Pass O) or Pass O (if fielding a good Pass D).

3. NYG
+ 4th best (!!) Pass O (7,67 Y/PP) in spite of little Sister is playing at QB. I saw them a couple of times. It seems the OL gives the QB 10 seconds to find the open receiver. I just wonder if a good QB would be under center. They could put up numbers like GB, NO and NE.
- Pass D (20th at 6,41 Y/PP) and the QB... They´ll need the same luck as in 2007 to win the SB.

4. DET
+ Good in Pass O (12th) and Pass D (8th), thus being 8th in Y/PP-Difference (+ 0,92)
- 30th in run defense (5,0 Y/R). OTOH, it don´t really matter... The problem is, they are very good, but not great in at least one aspect of the game. OK maybe the coach is great in his Ditka-Like-Behavior (BTW, click on this once in a life time interview:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW5va8T5qCw

and a close 2nd:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEYUFJcbmeI&feature=related )

5. ATL
+ They win games, besides not being very good. The same as in 2010. That must have something to do with the coach. He´s great. He has guts (just remember his 4th down call vs. NO. That showed the players once more his winning attitude. Since then they went 5-2 !), something Norv don´t possess.
- as said, they are an just average talented team

6. SF
+ They somehow managed to win 13 games. One might think that has something to do with the best NFL-Run-D (3,5 Y/R allowed). OTOH, history shows that a effiecient Run O or Run D is irrelevant for professional championship caliber football. If all, may the Pass D (9th w/a 5,95 Y/PP) helped them more than their Run D. I don´t know. I haven´t seen them playing...
- Pass O (20th in the NFL w/a 5,92 Y/PP, thus the worst of all playoff teams. I don´t count the Broncos with a non winning record as a true playoff team). Actually the 49ers are the only playoff team w/a negativ Y/PP Differential. Only three such teams won a SB:
the lucky 2007-Giants, the tuck rule cheaters (aka NE Patriots of 2001) and the dull 2000-Ravens . That´s it, only 3 of 45 champions. So it´s likely the 49ers will be a one and done team. They are like the 2010 Falcons. Sorry for all SF-Fans. Their record hides some true weaknesses....


As every year, the efficiency numbers show where the success comes from:
Y/PP-Difference is number one. On average all playoff teams (inclusive the Broncos!) ranked 9,4. The perfect average would be 6,5 (count 1+2+3+4...+12 divided by 12). It just shows how tight success is correlated with a combination of a good Pass O and a good Pass D or being so great on one side of the (passing) ball that it can hide the weakness on the other side (see GB and NE).

2. Y/PP-Offense (average rank is 11,4)
3. Y/PP-Defense (13,5)
4. Y/R-Defense (15,9)
5. Y/R-Difference (16,6 and thus worse than the average NFL-Rank, which is 16,5)
6. Y/R-Offense (16,9)

My picks for the weekend:
CIN 13, HOU 21
DET 24, NO 38
ATL 20, NYG 24
PIT 20, DEN 10

AFC-Final: PIT over HOU
NFC-Final: NO over GB

SB: NO over PIT

MVP: Brees

Enjoy the post season, Cheers,

Martz fired as OC

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

And I thought I wrote long posts!

Hey Foxy, I didn't know you were a Lance fan. Way to go! You could be the next Wonderlance!

I tend to prefer looking at trends, and match ups, than stats. Statistically the 2008 Arizona Cardinals should have never made the playoffs, let alone the Superbowl, they scored only 1 point more than they gave up over the season. And yet in the playoffs they were red hot, and should have won the SB, had it not been for some questionable calls. Even you agree with me on that one Foxy.

AFC

I generally agree with you on Pittsburgh. I just don't think they're going to the big dance. I think they are beat up and aging, and I don't like them having to play Baltimore, which seems inevitable to me. I just can't see them winning there. The injuries are also piling up and varied to key players. For example, Troy Polamalu will play. But he's not the same guy he was a few years ago. He can't blitz, nor hit the way he used to.

I'm not as high on NE as you are. They have a history of losing big games and haven't won in the playoffs in a few years, losing key games. I do like watching them though. But agree Brady has to play perfect games every week from here on out for them to have a chance. I don't see it, and think Pittsburgh will take them out after they get past Denver.

Houston lost three in a row backing into the playoffs. I think teams were figuring out Yates, and neither he nor Delhomme can bring them back if they fall behind. I see them probably beating Cincinnati, but that's it. Interesting that in your playoff scenario, you see them beating Baltimore, in Baltimore.

I like Baltimore. Sure, they don't score a lot of points. And Flacco's not a world beater. But they are the toughest team in the NFL, and will play every game at home, unless they go to NE. They won key games they needed to, like the win over Cincy, and they will be healthy from here on out.

Cincinnati is too young, and almost one dimensional on offense, but their defense is solid. I liked their effort against Baltimore, but if they make it past Houston, they will lose the following week.

Denver doesn't belong, you're right. I'd argue that Tennessee does instead. But that's not how it works. Tebow had two sub par games against NE and Buffalo, but last week when they had to win against KC, he was awful. 6-22 for 60 yards, so there is no way I see them beating the Steelers, even at home. They'll lose about 20-3.

NFC

I agree with all you said on New Orleans. I also like the fact they are red hot.

The Packers are the Packers. One thing not in any stat is that they seem to have the ability to flip a switch and find an extra gear. In several games this year they were obviously coasting. Thus I don't agree that they are in "big time trouble" because of pass defense. I also think this stat will be skewed at home, in the cold of GB. As I said, the only team I see able to beat them is the Saints. I just don't know if they can do it in Lambeau, on grass, in the cold, etc. I don't see Baltimore, Pittsburgh or New England beating them to be honest. The Pats pass defense is terrible, and the Steelers and Ravens don't score enough.

Agree with you on the Giants. I think Eli is the most overrated QB in the NFL, that everyone makes excuses for. If they get past Atlanta (and with Julian Jones playing for the Falcons, I'm not sure if it), they will get blown out by the Saints, like they did in week 12 (49-24), or lose to the Packers in GB, though that game was closer (38-35 in the Meadowlands). I'm sure either of those teams would love to take them on.

Detroit. I loved those Ditka clips. The first one is a classic! The Lions won three in a row before that final loss to Flynn and the Packers, which was almost as good as a win. But I see them being too eratic. They are going to go into NO, and lose. I just don't see them winning. If they did, they'd go back to GB, where they lost twice this year. And this team they'd play against Rodgers and the 1st stringers at full strength.

Atlanta - Interesting you rank the Giants higher than them. The Falcons have had some decent wins in recent weeks, but against weak competition, and were blown out by the Saints. But their losses (and weak wins) were nothing compared to some of the disaster games the Giants had. Plus the Giants recent wins were against the self-destructive Cowboys, and collapsing Jets. They were whipped by the Redskins three weeks ago! But they are healthy, and at home.

Interesting you rank San Francisco last, below two teams they beat in the regular season (Det and NYG). To me they are a very physical, workmanlike team who gets it done, and ignores everything else. Granted, they are in one of the weakest divisions, but they won several key games, including a 20-3 clobbering of the Steelers just three weeks ago. The biggest thing they need is another receiver for Smith, and he has got to be less timid and air the ball out more. I can see them beating the Falcons, or Giants (again), but not the Saints (even at home) nor the Packers. No way.

Again, I like trends and intangibles such as health, experience, coaching, style vs. style, over stats. Of course last year the Patriots had all the stats, were on a roll, and had whipped the Jets three weeks before the Jets went into New England and beat them. NO lost the last couple of regular season games before winning their SB (though they were resting players). So there are exceptions to every rule.

Finally, I believe Martz resigned, wasn't fired. But the writing was on the wall.

Finally, while not a big Chargers fan, I too feel sorry for their fans. If you look at Norv Turner's history before inheriting that loaded team he had a history as a loser. And also taking over decent teams and not winning with them. Unlike Andy Reid for example, who has one bad year on his resume (this one). Granted, Jeff Fisher who is being sought after right now doesn't have a history of winning seasons, but he's done much better with less and did have some very good years. There are also plenty of other coaches out there or prospects. I still think they could have lured Bill Cowher out of retirement, and I think he would have been what that team needed to win. At least more than what they have. Heck, Tony Sporano or Steve Spagnola could probably win more than Norv with that team. I fully expect the Chargers to go about 9-7 next year. Maybe worse. I thought they would win more this year with a relatively easy schedule, but they didn't.

Whew!

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I'm going to break the trend you two and keep it short.

@Foxxy: I like your predictions for the games this week except ATL 20, NYG 24. I think the weak pass D of NY is going to get picked on by the strong passing game by ATL. Then as a result, pass sets up the run for ATL. I'm taking ATL ftw.

@Alpe: I like BALT too. I'm hoping they can make it to the SB, or HOU.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Wow, it's humbling to be in the presence of so much detailed stat knowledge! I very much appreciate your input, guys.

CIN HOU
DET NO
ATL NYG
PIT DEN

I agree with Foxxy's picks, though I don't have the balls to predict scores.

Since my 'home from home' in the US is Maryland, and my grilfriend and all her friends and in-laws are all serious Ravens fans, I can only join them in hoping that the Ravens make it to the SB, where I expect them to get wiped out by Rodgers' magic arm.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Reports from NY are that the Jets were even more dysfunctional than thought. Beyond Santonio Holmes tantrums. 3rd string rookie QB Greg McElroy (who led Alabama to the national championship) was interviewed today and painted an ugly picture of the team and locker room. I heard clips of the interview, and he didn't seem bitter or anything, actually pretty calm and matter of fact, disappointed. He talked about how he knew the NFL was men playing, not boys, and that it would be not be warm and fuzzy like college, but it wasn't what he expected, at all:

"It's the first time I've ever been around extremely selfish individuals... There were people within our locker room that didn't care whether we won or lost as long as they got theirs, they had a good game individually. And that's the disappointing thing.... (This) led to a corrupt mindset in the locker room."

It didn't take ex-Jet Erik Lange long to lash out at him, "Someone tell McElroy to keep his mouth shut about the NYJ 'Locker Room' speaking in the media about your teammates, entitled brat!"

Seems to me McElroy wasn't the brat here. Sounds like he wants to be organized and win as a team. And I have to be honest, if the locker room was really that bad, I think it's going to take more than Rex Ryan talking to a few guys, and a kick in the pants from the outside here might motivate (shame?) some into stepping up.

I also wonder if this had anything to do with cementing Landry Jones decision to stay at Oklahoma for his senior year, which he announced today.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Wow! That McElroy interview was interesting. Throughout the entire interview he was very candid and honest. So honest he broke the unwritten rule about most locker rooms (not just the NFL), which is "what happens in the locker room, stays in the locker room". This is likely part of the reason why ex-Jet Lange lashed out the way he did over McElroy's statements that certain players are selfish. People can disagree with that rule, but like it or not that's the way it is. Any type of talk like that outside the locker room is divisive and disruptive to team unity. Not that selfish behavior is good either, but taking it outside the locker room just exacerbates the problem. Further, McElroy's calm, simple, and honest evaluation of certain "selfish" players is also a reflection of the coaches and the organization. I doubt that McElroy really understood that when it was coming out of his mouth.

Other than that one mistake, McElroy did a good interview.

 

[ggusta]

Reports from NY are that the Jets were even more dysfunctional than thought. Beyond Santonio Holmes tantrums. 3rd string rookie QB Greg McElroy (who led Alabama to the national championship) was interviewed today and painted an ugly picture of the team and locker room. I heard clips of the interview, and he didn't seem bitter or anything, actually pretty calm and matter of fact, disappointed. He talked about how he knew the NFL was men playing, not boys, and that it would be not be warm and fuzzy like college, but it wasn't what he expected, at all:

"It's the first time I've ever been around extremely selfish individuals... There were people within our locker room that didn't care whether we won or lost as long as they got theirs, they had a good game individually. And that's the disappointing thing.... (This) led to a corrupt mindset in the locker room."

It didn't take ex-Jet Erik Lange long to lash out at him, "Someone tell McElroy to keep his mouth shut about the NYJ 'Locker Room' speaking in the media about your teammates, entitled brat!"

Seems to me McElroy wasn't the brat here. Sounds like he wants to be organized and win as a team. And I have to be honest, if the locker room was really that bad, I think it's going to take more than Rex Ryan talking to a few guys, and a kick in the pants from the outside here might motivate (shame?) some into stepping up.

I also wonder if this had anything to do with cementing Landry Jones decision to stay at Oklahoma for his senior year, which he announced today.

What happens in the locker room should stay there. The Jets have problems. That was known prior to his interview. Now he (McElroy) is a pariah. Will it help the Jets?I don't think the Jets will hit bottom until they get rid of Ryan. He is a leopard who can't change his spots and they just don't work as a Head Coach. Perhaps dancing with the stars or celebrity biggest loser needs his personality. Not the NFL. If this interview hastens the end of the Ryan era, then it won't be a waste.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Jets get rid of Rex Ryan? Is there some serious talk about that? If so, I had not heard.

Just watched an interview on NFL.com with Falcs WR Roddy White and Broncs RB Willis McGahee. They were asked about the McElroy interview, and both players affirmed at least on their respective teams that negative talk does not go beyond the locker room. That was the serious discussion.

Then came the funning around. They each were asked what the Colts should do with Peyton, move forward without him or stick with him until he retires. Both said they'd stick with him. Then the conversation went something like:
Roddy: "If the Broncs could have any "teen" (QB) in the league in exchange for baby Jesus (Tebow) who would it be?
Willis would NOT BITE: "Baby Jesus gonna take us to the Promised Land".
Willis: "Roddy, you jus talking up Peyton coz you wan him down in Lanta in place of Matt".
Roddy: "Everything good in Atlanta".

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

... "what happens in the locker room, stays in the locker room".

The only problem with this, as noted in the article, is that other players have already spoken out about the problems on the Jets, even focusing on Holmes bad attitude and Ryan's inability to focus him, and the team. Tomlinson is quoted as saying:

"When you have a group of guys fighting their butts off and one guy, for whatever reason, their demeanor's not with them, you're going to get some guys to say something to him and tell him how they feel. That's what you got today,"

He was actually calling a player out, which McElroy didn't do. I think the key difference though is that LT is on his way to the hall of fame. McElroy is a rookie.

The interesting thing with the interview is that McElroy had praise for Ryan, and actually seemed to like a lot of unnamed teammates and staff. That's what was so strange. He acted like he wasn't being so critical as saying this was just the way it was, and something he wasn't used to. He was almost saying he didn't like it, more than saying anyone was to blame, as if from a third party perspective. He strikes me as a bright kid, and was considered for a Rhodes Scholarship, but I also think he's naive. He didn't play a down all year, and finished the season on IR. So he was basically sitting in the locker room or on the bench, wearing a Jets t-shirt most of the year.

I'm curious if this ends up with some backlash to him in the long run. Or because what he was saying was so obvious and honest, that it will make him admired in the eyes of some. Time will tell.

One thing's for sure though, the Jets are a mess. This team could have gone to the SB, as several people (including myself) predicted. But instead they had a disastrous season.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Hey Foxy, I didn't know you were a Lance fan. Way to go! You could be the next Wonderlance!

I tend to prefer looking at trends, and match ups, than stats. Statistically the 2008 Arizona Cardinals should have never made the playoffs, let alone the Superbowl, they scored only 1 point more than they gave up over the season.... Even you agree with me on that one Foxy.

Yes i am a big fan of him. I kept it a big secret, but you all should know that i always admired Lance. Actually i am Wonderlance. Ok, jokes aside. It really hurts to see him now all the time in my avatar.

Yop, those stats are the trends. If you go to advanced NFL-Stats, you´ll find out that Y/PP is the most predictive Stat for future outcomes. Even better than points and W-L-Record. There is a reason only three teams won a SB with a negative Y/PP differential. As i always said: You need to have an effiecient passing game to prevail. That is not only true since now, when everybody calls it a passing league. It´s true all the way back to the Luckman days of the 40´s. BTW, ARZ had a "monster" QB (6th in NFL-Y/PP back then). Not that i saw them going to the SB, but i told everybody they are underrated and will surprise in the playoffs.

I don't see it, and think Pittsburgh will take them out after they get past Denver.

So i am unsure if you see PIT going far (if they beat NE they are almost in the SB), or being stopped early b/c of the injuries?!? I hope for the latter.

Houston lost three in a row backing into the playoffs. I think teams were figuring out Yates, and neither he nor Delhomme can bring them back if they fall behind. I see them probably beating Cincinnati, but that's it. Interesting that in your playoff scenario, you see them beating Baltimore, in Baltimore.

The good part for HOU is, their defense keeps the games very close. So (normally) no need for big heroics from their QB´s. Yes, i see them beating BAL. Flacco, as inconsistent as he is, just (hopefully) can´t hit another sequence of luck.

Denver doesn't belong ... They'll lose about 20-3.

That´s funny. You see them crushing even more tough than I. I think your pick is better than mine.

The Packers are the Packers. One thing not in any stat is that they seem to have the ability to flip a switch and find an extra gear. In several games this year they were obviously coasting. Thus I don't agree that they are in "big time trouble" because of pass defense. I also think this stat will be skewed at home, in the cold of GB. As I said, the only team I see able to beat them is the Saints. I just don't know if they can do it in Lambeau, on grass, in the cold, etc. I don't see Baltimore, Pittsburgh or New England beating them to be honest. The Pats pass defense is terrible, and the Steelers and Ravens don't score enough.

Hope you are right here too. B/C i saw them in trouble when Rodgers had his off day (KC-Game); and the D couldn´t stop the Panthers, Saints (which is normal), Vikings (!!), Chargers, Giants and Lions. That´s a whole lot of non stopping opponents. Rodgers need to be perfect. That´s a tough task. And don´t forget, the DET-GB was also in bad weather. It just comes to my mind that Cunningham had his biggest pro day in steady rain on MNF (98 in GB).... After all, playoff scoring, passing etc. is higher than in the regular season, despite (!!) the bad weather. So, another myth is shattered here:
http://community.advancednflstats.com/2011/02/defense-wins-championships.html

Detroit. I loved those Ditka clips. The first one is a classic!

That guy was awesome. The best part in the 1st one came after i tought it can´t get any better... and than this guy stands up... Wow
The 2nd is no less funny. Man was this guy drunk. But he still could remember all that happened in the game.

Again, I like trends and intangibles such as health, experience, coaching, style vs. style, over stats. Of course last year the Patriots had all the stats, were on a roll, and had whipped the Jets three weeks before the Jets went into New England and beat them. NO lost the last couple of regular season games before winning their SB (though they were resting players). So there are exceptions to every rule.

It depends which stats you use. There are meaningless ones (like total yardage), non predictive ones (like turnovers which are random or occur in "desperation times"), and telling ones (like Y/PP).
All our life is full of stats. It´s just difficult to interpret the important ones (that´s no critic against you, but all the crap numbers the mainstream puts up). Even coaches think in stats (like how many "pancakes" did OT XY have, how many times does team ABC throw in certain situations. They just don´t call it stats but tendencies, which are still stats anyway... and so on)

Finally, while not a big Chargers fan, I too feel sorry for their fans. If you look at Norv Turner's history before inheriting that loaded team he had a history as a loser. more this year with a relatively easy schedule, but they didn't.

While i generally agree on everything else which i didn´t quote, this one needs to be remembered. Yes, this guy always lost more than he won. But even more telling is, that he is the coach with the worst 4th Qtr. "conversion rate". Meaning he lost more than others when leading in the 4th, and had the fewest comebacks. That comes with afraid and predictable play calling. Plus he never had his teams ready after pre season. Chargers are commited to losing.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I'm going to break the trend you two and keep it short.

@Foxxy: I like your predictions for the games this week except ATL 20, NYG 24. I think the weak pass D of NY is going to get picked on by the strong passing game by ATL.

Problem here is: ATL´s Pass D is worse than the one of NYG.
EDIT: They are almost the same (ATL 19th, NYG 20th)
Anyway it is a close call. The (luck of) turnovers will decide this one. Or Vegas, or homefield or...

Wow, it's humbling to be in the presence of so much detailed stat knowledge! I very much appreciate your input, guys.

CIN HOU
DET NO
ATL NYG
PIT DEN

I agree with Foxxy's picks, though I don't have the balls to predict scores.

Since my 'home from home' in the US is Maryland, and my grilfriend and all her friends and in-laws are all serious Ravens fans, I can only join them in hoping that the Ravens make it to the SB, where I expect them to get wiped out by Rodgers' magic arm.

Ok, the correct scores was just a little playing. It´s enough for me to pick 3 of 4 winners.
Ravens, i have no problem. But please not before they have an effiecient passing game. Otherwise this team will be remembered like the Dilfer one.

Wow! That McElroy interview was interesting.

...

I think such insider interviews are great. The problem is that the messenger always gets shot (see Landis). I think this NYJ-Locker room problems are everywhere (ok, maybe not in New England). NFL is no different than pro cycling: Greed and selfishness. Kids shouldn´t look up to this guys, that´s why every uncovered story is a good one...

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Thanks for all that Foxxy.

Well, I know it's reeeeeeeeealy early to be talking to much about this, but there are some interesting draft tidbits floating around. Here's MOCK DRAFT 1.0. (Sorry I forgot where I got this from, ESPN or FOX anyway. One thing is for certain, I sure couldn't make all this up on my own.)

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
2. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
4. Cleveland Browns: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
6. Washington Redskins: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
8. Carolina Panthers: Quinton Coples, DE/DT, North Carolina
9. Miami Dolphins: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
10. Buffalo Bills: Devon Still, DT, Penn State
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
12. Seattle Seahawks: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
13. Arizona Cardinals: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
14. Dallas Cowboys: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina
16. New York Jets: Mark Barron, Safety, Alabama
17. Cincinnati Bengals (via Oakland): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
18. San Diego Chargers: Nick Perry, DE, USC
19. Chicago Bears: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
20. Tennessee Titans: Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
22. Cleveland Browns (via Atlanta): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
23. Detroit Lions: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida State
25. New York Giants: Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama
26. Denver Broncos: Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
27. Houston Texans: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
28. Baltimore Ravens: Courtney Upshaw, LB, Alabama
29. New England Patriots (via New Orleans): Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
30. San Francisco 49ers: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
31. New England Patriots: Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson
32. Green Bay Packers: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

Peyton Manning has already been getting questions from the media related to the possibility that the Colts management might draft a QB. His responses indicated he really did not want to talk about the matter, that "it's not really for (me to answer those questions), it is something for others to talk about". He added that he "thinks he and Luck (or which QB they may draft) can coexist". He handled all the media questions very professionally and appropriately.

Only 2 QBs in this first Mock Draft.

Amsterhammer... what do you think about an OT for the 'Skins 6th Overall draft pick? Anyone know if they are in a good position to trade up? Even if they stay at the 6th spot it would probably be a good idea for them to build up the protection for who they eventually get as a QB, either this draft or in the next few years. If those really are the only 2 QBs drafted in the 1st round, the Skins may be in a good position to take one in the 2nd round. But here's what the Mock Drafters said about the Washington pick:

"Daniel Snyder, Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan might be willing to trade a bounty of picks to get that second overall pick to ensure RGIII plays nowhere but Washington next year. Another possibility? The Redskins hand Matt Flynn — with those two career starts on his resume — a blank check to come to Washington in March. I don’t, however, see them reaching to grab Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill for the sake of taking a quarterback. Reiff is a 6-foot-6, 300-pound tower who’s shown NFL pass-blocking skills since his first season at Iowa. A high school wrestling star, he’s a lot lighter on his feet than he might appear. If he opts to leave early, he’ll be a Top 10 pick. Redskins fans won’t be thrilled over this selection, but protecting their next franchise quarterback with two Top 10 tackles isn’t the worst thing to do. In a division with DeMarcus Ware, Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Jason Babin, it’s almost required."

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Luck and RG3 are head and shoulders above every other QB in this draft. With Luck of course above Griffin. Earlier in the year I thought Jones and Tannehill would go in the 1st, along with Barkley, who would go very high. Now, Jones and Barkley are staying behind, and Tannehill didn't play well in his last two games.

I'm not so certain that Cleveland is ready to give up on Colt McCoy just to get Griffin. Though I can see Washington trading away the farm to get RG3, who I do think can step in from day 1 and lead a team.

Flynn's situation is going to be interesting because he's a free agent, which means teams won't have to give anything up beyond money, so he'll be hot property - Also, remember that he was excellent in college, leading LSU to the 2008 championship, and MVP of the game. Because of the free agency, the Packers will look to deal him before the draft (April 26) for some sort of compensation, a mid-round pick, etc, just to get something in return. They could franchise him, guaranteeing they'll get more in return. But I don't think they want to take the $12-15m hit on the cap, regardless of who they get in exchange. Plus, they lose the franchise tag. But he will be extremely sought by teams like Washington, Seattle, Miami, etc. who may be out of the Luck/RG3 sweeps, and may not have enough to give up to acquire such a pick.

Still think Peyton Manning will get traded, and I can see Washington being a fit. I also don't think Manning is old and washed up. I think he has two very good years left. Maybe more. Especially in this pass happy era of football.

More playoff talk later. Shannon Sharpe made some statements I would like to comment on.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Thanks for all that Foxxy.

Well, I know it's reeeeeeeeealy early to be talking to much about this, but there are some interesting draft tidbits floating around. Here's MOCK DRAFT 1.0. (Sorry I forgot where I got this from, ESPN or FOX anyway. One thing is for certain, I sure couldn't make all this up on my own.)

Peyton Manning has already been getting questions from the media related to the possibility that the Colts management might draft a QB. His responses indicated he really did not want to talk about the matter, that "it's not really for (me to answer those questions), it is something for others to talk about". He added that he "thinks he and Luck (or which QB they may draft) can coexist". He handled all the media questions very professionally and appropriately.

Luck and RG3 are head and shoulders above every other QB in this draft. With Luck of course above Griffin. Earlier in the year I thought Jones and Tannehill would go in the 1st, along with Barkley, who would go very high. Now, Jones and Barkley are staying behind, and Tannehill didn't play well in his last two games.

Flynn's situation is going to be interesting because he's a free agent, which means teams won't have to give anything up beyond money, so he'll be hot property - Also, remember that he was excellent in college, leading LSU to the 2008 championship, and MVP of the game. Because of the free agency, the Packers will look to deal him before the draft (April 26) for some sort of compensation, a mid-round pick, etc, just to get something in return. They could franchise him, guaranteeing they'll get more in return. But I don't think they want to take the $12-15m hit on the cap, regardless of who they get in exchange. Plus, they lose the franchise tag. But he will be extremely sought by teams like Washington, Seattle, Miami, etc. who may be out of the Luck/RG3 sweeps, and may not have enough to give up to acquire such a pick.

Still think Peyton Manning will get traded, and I can see Washington being a fit. I also don't think Manning is old and washed up. I think he has two very good years left. Maybe more. Especially in this pass happy era of football.

More playoff talk later. Shannon Sharpe made some statements I would like to comment on.

The number one thing i look at is arm strength (ball speed). B/C this tells us a.) if a QB has a strong enough arm to throw under pressure to hit tight spots b.) if he can throw the 3-4 difficult throws per game needed in an NFL-Game. Just imagine this: A QB with 63 mph throw hits the receiver on a 20 yard slant in (imagine a point of throw about 7 yards behind the ScrL = so we just talk of a 13 yard pass completion) in about 0,65 seconds. A QB with an 55 mph arm hits the receiver in about 0,75 seconds. That 1/10 of a second is a night/day difference in terms of NFL-Speed. The 2nd QB needs much better WR-Seperation from the DB than the 1st one. Now calculate 3-4 difficult throws into one NFL-Season: That´s about 55 passes with much different outcomes (concerning Int´s, incompletions, sacks (b/c the 2nd QB needs more time for the WR to get open), first downs/TD´s).
Number two: Accuracy. I agree with Martz here (who once said he looks at this three things when evaluating a QB: 1.) accuracy, 2.) accuracy, 3.) accuracy).
Now imagine at what scouts look:
wonderlic (what the hell they look here? all that matters is if a QB has football intelligence; i.e. can he read a defense and remember plays), 40 yd dash, height, college division level (talented athletes can be sure to go undrafted if coming from small colleges, thus minimizing the chance to play NFL-Football to 0,....1 percent), amount of college plays participated; and to some extend the things i mentioned above, plus some other things. When they evaluate all this on a same level of importance they get this "mishmash" results linked here:

http://wagesofwins.com/2010/05/26/and-yet-another-look-at-drafting-quarterbacks-in-the-nfl/

In short words, this study tells us: They don´t know what they do. Draft order does not predict future NFL-Success! The scouts simply fail, leading to misses like Brady (picked in the 6th round), Warner (undrafted, unnoticed), Romo (undrafted, yet a 3 time pro bowler), Delhomme (undrafted NFL-Europe-Player who then went to the pro bowl and almost was a SB winning QB) etc.; or endless busts like Mirer, McNown, Couch, Leaf and so on.
Now what does this tell me about Luck and Griffin?
1.) I would like to bet once more ....
I predict failure (= bust) for Luck. I go with Simms here: He lacks the strong arm needed in the NFL. That alone speaks disaster for a guy having to play for a bad team in at least his first few years. Plus, he is praised so much by the mainstream that everything short of multiple pro bowl seasons will be considered as a bust. This guy will be under great pressure from day one. He´ll break under it.
2.) Griffin seems the better QB to me. He adds running and arm strength to his repertoire, while both seem to be the same in accuracy (both 70+ Cmp.-Pct. this year). But i don´t overvalue completion percentage, b/c these numbers depend heavily on the talent around you, system etc. But as a rough overview i don´t see big differences here (compared to arm strength and running ability).

After all: The "$uck for Luck" nonsense actually was nonsense. There will go another 50 mio $ down the t....

Finally: The examples i used above, are QB´s from the 2007-NFL-Combine (the only one i got search results for ball speed). The man who possesses the 63 mph arm is Toby Korrodi (also found one interview where players praised his will to win and his comebacks, thus i can imagine he also had good accuracy/technique). He came from a division II college, thus went undrafted and was never seen again. Who knows, he might have been the 2nd John Elway.
The 55 mph guys i mentioned are high draft picks Kevin Kolb (soon considered a bust) and Trent Edwards (already a bust).

About Flynn: Well, he hit the jackpot with his last game. As i always said, it´s a team sport. Even tough the QB is the most important player on offense, you still need 11 players in sync, which is definivitely true in GB. Who knows, Flynn might be the next over paid QB who regresses on a new team (remember Cassel?).

BTW, some numbers: SB-Teams who played their opening day starting QB´s (respectively their true starters) won 79% of regular season games (916-246-7 W-L-T). And guess what?.... Teams who had to play their replacement QB´s (b/c of injury, etc.) won 78% of their regular season games (161-46-0 W-L-T). This just underlines the study i mentioned above.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

The number one thing I look at is arm strength (ball speed).
Number two: Accuracy
Now imagine at what scouts look: wonderlic (what the hell they look here? all that matters is if a QB has football intelligence; i.e. can he read a defense and remember plays)

Now what does this tell me about Luck and Griffin?
1.) I would like to bet once more. ....
I predict failure (= bust) for Luck. I go with Simms here: He lacks the strong arm needed in the NFL.

That was a good read Foxxy, and I go along with most of what you said. Especially about Wonderlic. I'll bet Leaf passed the Wonderlic with flying colors.

Secondly, let me say I don’t take bets that are not sure things, or close to it. So with what I’m about to say, I’m not taking any bets on the question about Luck becoming a draft bust.

I don’t buy the idea that Luck will be a guaranteed failure as an NFL QB. He might be a failure, but not a guaranteed failure at this point. Time will tell. Here’s why I say that.
1) Accuracy. I agree this is very important. While some great receivers can make a QB look good on inaccurate passes, that’s no substitute for accuracy. I think Luck has this quality.
2) Ball speed. Important, yes. Requirement, no. Example, Joe Montana had one of the weakest arms in the history of the NFL, but he was very successful. A weak arm can be compensated for with football smarts such as reading defenses, knowing where to go with the ball, and timing. All of those attributes done well can erase any 0.1-second deficit from low ball speed.
3) Touch pass (a pass with more arc, or air under the ball). You might call this a subset of accuracy, but it’s not. It is a skill all on its own. In certain situations, the QB must be able to drop the ball in over coverages. Not all NFL passes should be lazars. If the QB does not master the touch pass they WILL be a failure in the NFL.
[BTW, this is the main reason I’m not sold on RG3 at this time. If he is going to be an effective NFL QB he must become better at that. He had several pass attempts in the recent Baylor bowl game that required touch, but those attempts were incompletions because he tried drilling the ball more than arcing it. He simply overshot the receiver. Accuracy? Maybe, but if he had accurately drilled it the pass would have been intercepted.]

Luck seems to have touch on his passes when needed, the decision making ability, and accuracy needed to be a successful NFL QB. Whatever he lacks in arm strength he can build up to a point (by 'to a point' I mean other things besides arm strength translate to ball speed, like arm whip).

But I could prove to be wrong.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Before I comment, this Houston-Cincy game shows you how one play can turn a game. That certain interception dropped by Cooper on the Bengals, which was an almost certain pick-six, turned into a 14 point swing, and after that, the game was over, over, over Can't play like that in the NFL and expect to get anywhere.

Houston off to Baltimore, which should be a bruising game.

No shock in NO over Detroit. Though the Lions played well, and in retrospect had a very good year, and must feel hopeful for the future. They need a utility RB, and better pass protection, and look out!

New Orleans vs. San Francisco should be great fun. I like the Saints, but not to run up the score One of those 20-16 games.

I agree with Martz here (who once said he looks at this three things when evaluating a QB: 1.) accuracy, 2.) accuracy, 3.) accuracy).

I agree, which is why I think RG3 is going to make it in the NFL without question. He has serious deep field accuracy. We're talking 40+ yard throws right on the money. Sometimes on the move. Several throws this year of his were just eye-popping.

I don't know the numbers, but do think in the future Landry Jones may do well in the NFL because he appears to have a very strong arm. He just doesn't have the accuracy right now, which is why I think staying at Alabama was a good decision.

The Wonderlic? Ryan Fitzpatrick has one of the highest scores ever. What does that tell you? I guess if someone bombed the thing, and came off dumb in an interview that might tell you something. But memory, and desire to learn plays and study film means far more than that.

I think character has an issue. I don't mean good, law abiding person character. I mean will to learn, lead, grow and win. Tom Brady had this all along, but because he didn't throw pretty passes, they passed him up. Oh, and he probably had an average wonderlic score! But Jamarcus Russell had a rocket arm, but horrible character. Similar with Ryan Leaf. Jimmy Claussen should be playing somewhere, but when your own teammates call you a punk...

Draft order does not predict future NFL-Success!

No doubt about that. Russell, Leaf, Akili Smith, Andre Ware, David Carr, Joey Harrington, etc.

But some do step up. Peyton Manning (Eli has been lucky), John Elway. Somewhat Drew Bledsoe.

Agree the pressure will be very high on Luck to perform. But I do think like P Manning he has a nice touch of accuracy on the ball, and will do quite well. It will also depend on the team he plays with. Let's say it's the same Colts team next year, without Manning. Orlovsky won two games for them this year, and had he played all year, they may have won 5. I'd guess Luck could equal that. But to think in two years he'll be winning the SB for them, that I doubt.

Who knows, Flynn might be the next over paid QB who regresses on a new team (remember Cassel?).

It's hard to tell how he'll do elsewhere. But he did show excellent accuracy and poise, and when you compare him to QB's like Tavaris Jackson, Rex Grossman, Kevin Kolb, dare I say, Mark Sanchez...

As to Matt Cassel, he actually hasn't been that bad. He lead the Chiefs to the division title last year (granted, not entirely on his arm), but was hurt most of this season.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Just got home after the first great WC-Day. Before i comment, let me go to bed. I am too drunk to comment....

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Don't let that stop you! We have several members who post that way all the time!

On second thought, someone recently got suspended from posting for doing that.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Don't let that stop you! We have several members who post that way all the time!

Now that was funny.

... What a show! Beyond all expectations. BTW, if i had bet the NO-Game i would have covered the spread and O/U!
But i am not sad b/c i had something on the HOU-Game. As you can see, you can win even with your 3rd-Stringer in the playoffs.
But back to the NO-Game. I saw the greatest call by a coach ever. When i said Payton coach of the year, now he really deserves it. NO is up by just 3 with a ton of time left and he goes for it with a QB-Sneak from his own 38yL, not even trying to draw an offside penalty. That´s guts. Never saw it in a playoff game. Actually i saw it four times in 25+ years: Martz w/Faulk, Beli-Cheat vs. IND (he got clobbered by mainstream; even tough it was the right call), Mike Smith vs. NO this regular season (he got clobbered by mainstream; even tough it was the right call), Switzer vs. PHI back in 1995 (he got clobbered by mainstream; even tough it was the right call).
Just wonder what Norv thinks. He must have been vomiting on this.
Anyway, after this call, it was all Saints. Another records were broken (Brees in a non OT-PO-Game) and the all time PO-Record for team yards (626!!!, the old one was back in 1964 w/610 yds).
I hope Brees will not have a bad day. The Saints deserve to be the next SB-Champion!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

That was not only a smart call, but the way they ran the sneak. They moved to the line slow, like they were going to try to get them to jump off sides, and they had a "first sound" snap. Brilliant. As I said several posts ago, the Saints are probably the best coached team in the NFL.

The Giants have taken out the Falcons, and they got after Ryan like nobodies business. If they can play this way against the Packers, and they did in week 13, they have a good chance of knocking them off, due to styles match-ups, and momentum (as I believe in). But the "Hyde" side of the team may show up, especially as this will be in Lambeau they may have a much harder time. Plus, the Packers will have all their receivers, and are very, very hard to beat at home in the playoffs.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Alright baby!

Love seeing the Steelers lose like that!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Wow! Was worried about some of those calls, but damn if that wasn't an impressive performance from Tebow and the Broncos.

I thought both teams got one possession in OT? Or is that just the Superbowl? Either way, what a win for Denver.

 

[Anonymous]

Alright baby!

Love seeing the Steelers lose like that!

The world is clearly spinning backwards.

I could not agree more.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Wow! Was worried about some of those calls, but damn if that wasn't an impressive performance from Tebow and the Broncos.

I thought both teams got one possession in OT? Or is that just the Superbowl? Either way, what a win for Denver.

Both teams get one possession unless either the team with first possession scores a TD, OR the defense scores. Some game. Not one pundit picked the Broncos to take this one, so I guess we're all three out of four this weekend.