on3m@n@rmy said:
I like that fail avatar Foxxy. And I'd say it definately fits the requirement that the avatar has to hurt to display it.
I feel sorry for SoCal SD fans, or SD fans anywhere. Eagles kept Andy Reid too, which IMO was a smart move.
Thank you that this is enough for you to fit the bet. It was a tight race...
Here is my yearly
complete Playoff preview (after the short version of yesterday)
AFC:
1. PIT
+ finished 1st as usual in Pass-D (4,87 Y/PP allowed). Performed better than the famous Bears in 84,85 and 86;
finished 1st in the killer Stat of them all: Y/PP-Difference (6,98 on Offense = 9th and as said 4,87 = 1st in Defense; that makes it + 2,11)
- Scoring-Offense. They simply score to less points (21st in the NFL)
I still hope they won´t win the SB. If happening, expect wins like 20-10, 16-13, 10-7 and 17-10. After all the old song of "Defense wins championships" will appear and the criminal once again will be hailed as "Big Ben". Oh no!
2. NE
+ Pass-O (7,89 Y/PP = 2nd in NFL)
- The D (7,14 Y/PP = 29th). Thus, Brady has to be great in every game. I still hope they make it. Scores like 38-35, 35-27 and 44-41 will come. That would be great. Pats go Pats!
3. HOU
+ Besides all the injuries they are very good, b/c the Pass-D (2nd in Y/PP at 5,21) keeps the games close for Yates or even Delhomme. They´ll go far.
- The injuries...
4. BAL
+ 3rd best Pass D (5,39 Y/PP). As usual it´s the D that brings them in the playoffs.
- It seems BAL has the same problem as CHI: They can´t draft QB´s. Flacco isn´t the deal. I love his arm strenght, but after that it´s all inconsistent year after year (19th in NFL in Y/PP w/a 5,93 Y/PP).
5. CIN
+ 4th best Pass D (5,8 Y/PP)
- Pass-O (17th w/a 5,96 Y/PP)
6. DEN
+ ---
- They are the Seahawks of 2011. This team don´t belong into the playoffs. They get out-scored, out-passed and depend on pure luck when winning. I hope for one more win like this (vs. PIT), but it´s unrealstic to think it will happen.... I got caught in the Tebow-Hype and made one of the stupidest bets of all time (not here at cycnews, but in "my" NFL-Sports-Bar after too many beers).
NFC:
1. NO
+ 3rd best Pass O (7,79 Y/PP). Peyton is the coach of the year. He preaches balance to please the mainstream, but every year he rightfully goes pass wacky. That´s smart. A nice by-product: Surprsingly finished 4th (!!) in rushing offense (4,94 Y/R). It´s the pass that sets up the run (if you wan´t to win. May Norv the Smurf will find out when he is 80). Not the other way around.
I rank NO over GB, b/c they at least field a average Pass D (16th w/a 6,31 Y/PP allowed), thus allow to have Brees one average game. Something Brady and Rodgers can´t afford to have. But history shows that every great QB has some so so days...
- as mentioned the D has some weak spots
2. GB
+ Best Pass O (8,3 Y/PP). They seem unstoppable. I hope they meet NO for the greatest ever NFC Championship-Game... BTW, that was my prediction after i saw those teams in Week one, as everyone might remember (i am not sure if i posted it here, but made that bold prediction in the Bar at least. I couldn´t believe this clubs were putting on the greatest precise passing show i ever saw between two teams)
- Pass D (30th w/a 7,2 Y/PP). They can´t stop anybody. All the Int´s hide this weakness. But turnovers are random or come late when teams play the desperation mode. So you can´t count on them in tight games. Thus, GB is in big time trouble. Every SB-Winner needed at least a average Pass D (if fielding a good Pass O) or Pass O (if fielding a good Pass D).
3. NYG
+ 4th best (!!) Pass O (7,67 Y/PP) in spite of little Sister

is playing at QB. I saw them a couple of times. It seems the OL gives the QB 10 seconds to find the open receiver. I just wonder if a good QB would be under center. They could put up numbers like GB, NO and NE.
- Pass D (20th at 6,41 Y/PP) and the QB... They´ll need the same luck as in 2007 to win the SB.
4. DET
+ Good in Pass O (12th) and Pass D (8th), thus being 8th in Y/PP-Difference (+ 0,92)
- 30th in run defense (5,0 Y/R). OTOH, it don´t really matter... The problem is, they are very good, but not great in at least one aspect of the game. OK maybe the coach is great in his Ditka-Like-Behavior (BTW, click on this once in a life time interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW5va8T5qCw
and a close 2nd:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEYUFJcbmeI&feature=related )
5. ATL
+ They win games, besides not being very good. The same as in 2010. That must have something to do with the coach. He´s great. He has guts (just remember his 4th down call vs. NO. That showed the players once more his winning attitude. Since then they went 5-2 !), something Norv don´t possess.
- as said, they are an just average talented team
6. SF
+ They somehow managed to win 13 games. One might think that has something to do with the best NFL-Run-D (3,5 Y/R allowed). OTOH, history shows that a effiecient Run O or Run D is irrelevant for professional championship caliber football. If all, may the Pass D (9th w/a 5,95 Y/PP) helped them more than their Run D. I don´t know. I haven´t seen them playing...
- Pass O (20th in the NFL w/a 5,92 Y/PP, thus the worst of all playoff teams. I don´t count the Broncos with a non winning record as a true playoff team). Actually the 49ers are the only playoff team w/a negativ Y/PP Differential. Only three such teams won a SB:
the lucky 2007-Giants, the tuck rule cheaters (aka NE Patriots of 2001) and the dull 2000-Ravens . That´s it, only 3 of 45 champions. So it´s likely the 49ers will be a one and done team. They are like the 2010 Falcons. Sorry for all SF-Fans. Their record hides some true weaknesses....
As every year, the efficiency numbers show where the success comes from:
Y/PP-Difference is number one. On average all playoff teams (inclusive the Broncos!) ranked 9,4. The perfect average would be 6,5 (count 1+2+3+4...+12 divided by 12). It just shows how tight success is correlated with a combination of a good Pass O and a good Pass D or being so great on one side of the (passing) ball that it can hide the weakness on the other side (see GB and NE).
2. Y/PP-Offense (average rank is 11,4)
3. Y/PP-Defense (13,5)
4. Y/R-Defense (15,9)
5. Y/R-Difference (16,6 and thus
worse than the average NFL-Rank, which is 16,5)
6. Y/R-Offense (16,9)
My picks for the weekend:
CIN 13,
HOU 21
DET 24,
NO 38
ATL 20,
NYG 24
PIT 20, DEN 10
AFC-Final: PIT over HOU
NFC-Final: NO over GB
SB: NO over PIT
MVP: Brees
Enjoy the post season, Cheers,
Martz fired as OC
