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Re:

on3m@n@rmy said:
Hey movingtarget, SF must have a worse offensive line than Seattle, huh, having just signed Seattle RFA tackle Garry Gilliam. Seattle did not match the one year $2.2M offer Garry got.
Their offensive line wasn't as bad as their defense who were crippled by injuries and a lack of depth but they don't have the roster Seattle has. They have plenty of holes to fill. Even though a lot of people were happy about their free agent signings there are few there that look a bit dodgy. Garcon might do well and the fullback Kyle Juszczyk from the Ravens could also do well in Shanahan's offense. Some of the others look past their used by date. This will be an important draft for the 49ers. They really need some play makers. Dallas got lucky last year with Prescott and Elliott and it seems that Chip Kelly wanted Prescott but the 49ers GM Trent Baalke said no. Of course both of those two are gone now. I think with a better GM Chip might have lasted longer but of course if it didn't convert to wins it may not have made a difference. It was probably easier for Jed York to wipe the slate clean and hire all new coaches plus the GM. It remains to be seen what comes of the shake up but the last two coaches have only lasted one season. I give Shanahan three seasons and if there isn't sizeable improvements he and Lynch the GM might be gone. If the first two years are plain bad he might be gone earlier. People are forgetting that Lynch has never been a GM before and Shanahan has never been a head coach before and even great coaches have failed in their first appointment. There will be no lack of pressure from the owners, media and fans especially after the past few years.
 
Re: Re:

movingtarget said:
on3m@n@rmy said:
Hey movingtarget, SF must have a worse offensive line than Seattle, huh, having just signed Seattle RFA tackle Garry Gilliam. Seattle did not match the one year $2.2M offer Garry got.
Their offensive line wasn't as bad as their defense who were crippled by injuries and a lack of depth but they don't have the roster Seattle has. They have plenty of holes to fill. Even though a lot of people were happy about their free agent signings there are few there that look a bit dodgy. Garcon might do well and the fullback Kyle Juszczyk from the Ravens could also do well in Shanahan's offense. Some of the others look past their used by date. This will be an important draft for the 49ers. They really need some play makers. Dallas got lucky last year with Prescott and Elliott and it seems that Chip Kelly wanted Prescott but the 49ers GM Trent Baalke said no. Of course both of those two are gone now. I think with a better GM Chip might have lasted longer but of course if it didn't convert to wins it may not have made a difference. It was probably easier for Jed York to wipe the slate clean and hire all new coaches plus the GM. It remains to be seen what comes of the shake up but the last two coaches have only lasted one season. I give Shanahan three seasons and if there isn't sizeable improvements he and Lynch the GM might be gone. If the first two years are plain bad he might be gone earlier. People are forgetting that Lynch has never been a GM before and Shanahan has never been a head coach before and even great coaches have failed in their first appointment. There will be no lack of pressure from the owners, media and fans especially after the past few years.
Nice input. With the new GM & coaches it will be an interesting draft to watch what they do, and telling. Especially with that overall #2 pick. Lynch, while new to the GM world, is a smart football talent guy, so that should help. I would be disappointed if they draft a QB with that #2 overall.
 
Re: Re:

on3m@n@rmy said:
movingtarget said:
on3m@n@rmy said:
Hey movingtarget, SF must have a worse offensive line than Seattle, huh, having just signed Seattle RFA tackle Garry Gilliam. Seattle did not match the one year $2.2M offer Garry got.
Their offensive line wasn't as bad as their defense who were crippled by injuries and a lack of depth but they don't have the roster Seattle has. They have plenty of holes to fill. Even though a lot of people were happy about their free agent signings there are few there that look a bit dodgy. Garcon might do well and the fullback Kyle Juszczyk from the Ravens could also do well in Shanahan's offense. Some of the others look past their used by date. This will be an important draft for the 49ers. They really need some play makers. Dallas got lucky last year with Prescott and Elliott and it seems that Chip Kelly wanted Prescott but the 49ers GM Trent Baalke said no. Of course both of those two are gone now. I think with a better GM Chip might have lasted longer but of course if it didn't convert to wins it may not have made a difference. It was probably easier for Jed York to wipe the slate clean and hire all new coaches plus the GM. It remains to be seen what comes of the shake up but the last two coaches have only lasted one season. I give Shanahan three seasons and if there isn't sizeable improvements he and Lynch the GM might be gone. If the first two years are plain bad he might be gone earlier. People are forgetting that Lynch has never been a GM before and Shanahan has never been a head coach before and even great coaches have failed in their first appointment. There will be no lack of pressure from the owners, media and fans especially after the past few years.
Nice input. With the new GM & coaches it will be an interesting draft to watch what they do, and telling. Especially with that overall #2 pick. Lynch, while new to the GM world, is a smart football talent guy, so that should help. I would be disappointed if they draft a QB with that #2 overall.
Yeah Lynch seems to have his head screwed on. A lot of people would be surprised if they took a QB with the second pick overall and there have been some suggestions that that pick might be horse traded. Really I don't see it happening. At the moment they need quality not quantity unless it maybe included picks in next year's draft. I think Cousins and Hyde will stay put but depending on how the QBs for the 49ers go this year Cousins could be in the picture next year if he is interested. Whether the 49ers will be willing to pay Cousins what he thinks he deserves is another thing.
 
Jon Gruden HATES the college RPO (run pass option) offense. He LOATHES it. In a “Gruden QB Camp” episode with Miami ‘Canes QB Brad Kaaya he explains why to Kaaya. Gruden has his own word for the RPO offense:
- Ridiculous (as the RPO often leaves one defender in the box unblocked)
- Protection (as in QB protection vs unblocked defenders)
- Offense.
I have a feeling Gruden’s sentiment is typical of NFL coaches, because it exposes the QB to NFL defenders who overall are better athletes than college players. Watch this 13 minute video that explains the whole thing, starting at about 6:24 where Kaaya gets his molar crushed (literally, and to the tune of The Who - Who Are You?) vs the Seminoles, a whiteboard explanation of one RPO play used by Miami vs GT and then the ‘Noles, through the end of the video when Gruden puts his definition of RPO on record. It worked vs GT because the Mike LB (unblocked) bit on the run coverage, but exploded on Kaaya vs the ‘Noles because Seminole Mike LB (unblocked) exploded downhill to give Kaaya the nice molar-crushing tackle. Think what may happen vs better NFL defenders.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NAdSMsE_hM
So, that is one reason why RPO won’t work in the NFL and why Gruden hates RPO so much.

Another reason? Not shown in that video segment, but shown when aired by the NFL Network, was Gruden’s explanation of an NFL offensive concept, R.C.E.:
- Recognize (QB recognizes the defensive scheme & coverage),
- Communicate (after reading the defense, the QB communicates adjustments at the line of scrimmage before the play), and
- Execute.
Interestingly, Gruden chose an NFL video replay of a play run by the Patriots with Garoppolo at QB. Garoppolo ran the play to perfection using all 3 of those principles, RCE. (BTW, don’t be surprised if Belichick really does not want to trade Garoppolo).

Contrast that Patriot/ Garoppolo play to RPO: in college RPO offenses, often the entire team presnap are looking at the sideline for adjustments. That negates part of the QB recognition principle by putting the burden on the coaches to make final adjustments, instead of letting the QB at the line making final adjustments after the defense adjusts. So, that is another reason why RPO won’t work in the NFL and why Gruden hates RPO so much.

And since this was a Gruden QB Camp, the underlying tone of the training session with Kaaya was to convince Kaaya he better forget about RPO in the NFL, and he’d better be ready to start the process of learning the NFL way of offenses.

The final thoughts I had after watching the video: no wonder why it is a hard process for college QBs who played under spread scheme/ RPO offenses to adjust to the NFL, and why drafting an RPO/ spread QB is such a crap shoot.

Here I think is the entire qb camp link:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DUZxxkkNu98
 

Irondan

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Moderator
Re: Re:

BullsFan22 said:
Irondan said:
I know this has nothing to do with the draft, but I had to post this Marshawn Lynch comp somewhere because any fan of the NFL can't help but smile when they see this guy run.

Enjoy :)

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000799875/Marshawn-Lynch-Career-highlights

I still can't believe the Seahawks didn't run the ball.
No, me either. They would have won that game.

One of the all time biggest goofs in NFL history.
 
Agree. I mean, on the previous play he gained 4 yards...

But let's also give credit to Malcom Butler for an extremely head's up play during an incredibly pressure packed moment.

Speaking of Butler, he agreed to his tender with the Patriots, meaning it's 99% likely he'll stay with the team for at least this coming season. Considering the Pats recently signed Gilmore, and retained almost everyone else they had on that developing defensive squad from last season, this is scary for the rest of the AFC East, or just NFL. It's like their weakest defensive player may now be...Patrick Chung, who is perhaps aging, but still a heck of a player and former all pro.
 
Good read. I've seen Leaf interviewed in the last year or two, he seems way more humble and it looks like he has turned his life around.
Without complaint, he shares an office with three other people. He makes no unilateral decisions, instead consulting a five-person “board of directors”...

“Because my best thinking takes me to a prison cell,’’ Leaf explained. “I don’t make the right choices. I never have.’’

He said he stresses that being a good football player does not make you a good person — something Leaf has learned after a tumultuous NFL career followed by addiction.

“I wish I would have treated people better... that’s the biggest regret I have. But it allowed me to be humble where I could go back and make amends to those people and try to be better.
 
And Leaf has turned it around so much that he will be at Thursday's draft, back in touch with the NFL, just not as a player.

It is finished. The $1.5M gap between Raiders & Lynch is history. Lynch has agreed to terms & he will be a Raider today pending physical. He still has to stay healthy, and if that is how it plays out this is good for everyone. :)

Edit: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000802591/article/marshawn-lynch-agrees-to-raiders-deal-teams-to-trade-terms

Draft rumors are swirling the Browns will trade up from the #12 spot to draft Trubisky. :eek: A guy who had 13 collegiate starts. I'd believe Deshone Watson more.
 
on3m@n@rmy said:
And Leaf has turned it around so much that he will be at Thursday's draft, back in touch with the NFL, just not as a player.

It is finished. The $1.5M gap between Raiders & Lynch is history. Lynch has agreed to terms & he will be a Raider today pending physical. He still has to stay healthy, and if that is how it plays out this is good for everyone. :)

Edit: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000802591/article/marshawn-lynch-agrees-to-raiders-deal-teams-to-trade-terms

Draft rumors are swirling the Browns will trade up from the #12 spot to draft Trubisky. :eek: A guy who had 13 collegiate starts. I'd believe Deshone Watson more.
I wonder if the year off has allowed Beast Mode's body to get completely healthy?

I don't understand how teams evaluate players in general, but especially QBs. Is it old school voodoo? I think Watson will be the best QB out of this crew when we look back in a few years.
 
Dec 7, 2010
8,773
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Re: Re:

Irondan said:
BullsFan22 said:
Irondan said:
I know this has nothing to do with the draft, but I had to post this Marshawn Lynch comp somewhere because any fan of the NFL can't help but smile when they see this guy run.

Enjoy :)

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000799875/Marshawn-Lynch-Career-highlights

I still can't believe the Seahawks didn't run the ball.
No, me either. They would have won that game.

One of the all time biggest goofs in NFL history.
It was one of the happiest moments for me ever. I'm a Saints fan and nothing pains me more than the past years of the Saints always having to play an away game there. Last year when the Saints beat them It made my year. :D

After the saints my favorite team for the AFC is the Patriots only because it was my second home for a while when I was young ...For me it was the Red Sox, Patriots, Celtics, and Bruins because back in those days the Saints were really the Aints.
 
Dec 7, 2010
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Anyone seen this? Wonderlic scores leaked.

http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/nfl-quarterback-wonderlic-scores-matter-a-great-deal-042417

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2017/04/25/wonderlic-scores-revealed-nfl-draft-prospects-myles-garrett-patrick-mahomes

These guys are dumber than a box of rocks.

John Ross WR Washington 16
Joe Mixon RB Oklahoma 12
Dion Dawkins T Temple 12
Leonard Fournette RB LSU 11
Dalvin Cook RB Florida State 11
Reuben Foster LB Alabama 9
Garett Bolles T Utah 9
 
jmdirt said:
on3m@n@rmy said:
And Leaf has turned it around so much that he will be at Thursday's draft, back in touch with the NFL, just not as a player.

It is finished. The $1.5M gap between Raiders & Lynch is history. Lynch has agreed to terms & he will be a Raider today pending physical. He still has to stay healthy, and if that is how it plays out this is good for everyone. :)

Edit: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000802591/article/marshawn-lynch-agrees-to-raiders-deal-teams-to-trade-terms

Draft rumors are swirling the Browns will trade up from the #12 spot to draft Trubisky. :eek: A guy who had 13 collegiate starts. I'd believe Deshone Watson more.
I wonder if the year off has allowed Beast Mode's body to get completely healthy?

I don't understand how teams evaluate players in general, but especially QBs. Is it old school voodoo? I think Watson will be the best QB out of this crew when we look back in a few years.
BeastMode says his body is now completely healthy, particularly his core. In his last 2 years at Seattle he had quite a bit of trouble with back and abdominal areas. Being that strong core muscles are essential to take and deliver hits, think what that may mean for the way he will play. If he stays healthy and does not try to avoid contact to extend his career, I predict BeastQuakes in Oakland. ;)
 
jmdirt said:
I don't understand how teams evaluate players in general, but especially QBs. Is it old school voodoo? I think Watson will be the best QB out of this crew when we look back in a few years.
Based on....?

If you're saying a weak QB draft class, that I sort of get. Though I do think DeShone Kizer may end up better, as he has a stronger, and more accurate arm, and played more than Trubiski. But even he may not pan out. But I'd be really careful about hype on Watson.

Watson is mostly known for one great game, and a few great, pressure packed drives late, against Alabama. He didn't play an pro system in college. He was fairly slow on his reads. His arm strength is relatively poor. Now, I can hear you argue that Tom Brady doesn't have a great arm. True. But Tom also reads defenses better than any QB in NFL history, and is an extremely accurate passer. Watson is not very accurate, with just over 52% completion, and threw 17 interceptions last year, in college. Yes, he has decent size (not as big as people think, NFL standards), and can run. He is physically gifted. Very few QBs make a career of of being physically gifted. More of them turn out like Colin Kaepernick (who has a much stronger arm than Watson). Even if you look at other big, or physical QB's, Cam and Big Ben come to mind, they find success as passers first.

I've said in several posts that NFL scouts and teams get enamored with college QBs, not based on anything objective, but on almost blind hope, as they've never seen the QB struggle at an NFL level. Here's some numbers that back that up (this applies to not just Watson, btw):

Since 1970, 96 QB's taken in the first around have played at least one game in the NFL over the first four years of their pro career. Only 16 managed to produce an above-average passer rating while throwing at least 1,000 pass attempts through the end of the 4th year. Only two — Jim Kelley and Dan Marino — managed to produce an above-average passer rating in each of those years. And Kelley got started in the USFL.

Put another way, there's a 5/6 probability that any first-round quarterback is unlikely to be even an average starter just 4 seasons into their career. Some quarterbacks do get hurt. And some have a rough few years, then iron things out into a very good, solid career (Jim Plunkett, Alex Smith, Big Ben again). And some sit, then become great (Aaron Rodgers). But by and large most QB's taken in the 1st round play below average football, if they play at all.
 
Dec 7, 2010
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Alpe d'Huez said:
jmdirt said:
I don't understand how teams evaluate players in general, but especially QBs. Is it old school voodoo? I think Watson will be the best QB out of this crew when we look back in a few years.
Based on....?

If you're saying a weak QB draft class, that I sort of get. Though I do think DeShone Kizer may end up better, as he has a stronger, and more accurate arm, and played more than Trubiski. But even he may not pan out. But I'd be really careful about hype on Watson.

Watson is mostly known for one great game, and a few great, pressure packed drives late, against Alabama. He didn't play an pro system in college. He was fairly slow on his reads. His arm strength is relatively poor. Now, I can hear you argue that Tom Brady doesn't have a great arm. True. But Tom also reads defenses better than any QB in NFL history, and is an extremely accurate passer. Watson is not very accurate, with just over 52% completion, and threw 17 interceptions last year, in college. Yes, he has decent size (not as big as people think, NFL standards), and can run. He is physically gifted. Very few QBs make a career of of being physically gifted. More of them turn out like Colin Kaepernick (who has a much stronger arm than Watson). Even if you look at other big, or physical QB's, Cam and Big Ben come to mind, they find success as passers first.

I've said in several posts that NFL scouts and teams get enamored with college QBs, not based on anything objective, but on almost blind hope, as they've never seen the QB struggle at an NFL level. Here's some numbers that back that up (this applies to not just Watson, btw):

Since 1970, 96 QB's taken in the first around have played at least one game in the NFL over the first four years of their pro career. Only 16 managed to produce an above-average passer rating while throwing at least 1,000 pass attempts through the end of the 4th year. Only two — Jim Kelley and Dan Marino — managed to produce an above-average passer rating in each of those years. And Kelley got started in the USFL.

Put another way, there's a 5/6 probability that any first-round quarterback is unlikely to be even an average starter just 4 seasons into their career. Some quarterbacks do get hurt. And some have a rough few years, then iron things out into a very good, solid career (Jim Plunkett, Alex Smith, Big Ben again). And some sit, then become great (Aaron Rodgers). But by and large most QB's taken in the 1st round play below average football, if they play at all.
All of this info - I bet someone takes a QB in the first round. Probably Texans on D.W.
For me this years QB class is weak. Just my opinion.
 
Semper Fidelis said:
Alpe d'Huez said:
jmdirt said:
I don't understand how teams evaluate players in general, but especially QBs. Is it old school voodoo? I think Watson will be the best QB out of this crew when we look back in a few years.
Based on....?

If you're saying a weak QB draft class, that I sort of get. Though I do think DeShone Kizer may end up better, as he has a stronger, and more accurate arm, and played more than Trubiski. But even he may not pan out. But I'd be really careful about hype on Watson.

Watson is mostly known for one great game, and a few great, pressure packed drives late, against Alabama. He didn't play an pro system in college. He was fairly slow on his reads. His arm strength is relatively poor. Now, I can hear you argue that Tom Brady doesn't have a great arm. True. But Tom also reads defenses better than any QB in NFL history, and is an extremely accurate passer. Watson is not very accurate, with just over 52% completion, and threw 17 interceptions last year, in college. Yes, he has decent size (not as big as people think, NFL standards), and can run. He is physically gifted. Very few QBs make a career of of being physically gifted. More of them turn out like Colin Kaepernick (who has a much stronger arm than Watson). Even if you look at other big, or physical QB's, Cam and Big Ben come to mind, they find success as passers first.

I've said in several posts that NFL scouts and teams get enamored with college QBs, not based on anything objective, but on almost blind hope, as they've never seen the QB struggle at an NFL level. Here's some numbers that back that up (this applies to not just Watson, btw):

Since 1970, 96 QB's taken in the first around have played at least one game in the NFL over the first four years of their pro career. Only 16 managed to produce an above-average passer rating while throwing at least 1,000 pass attempts through the end of the 4th year. Only two — Jim Kelley and Dan Marino — managed to produce an above-average passer rating in each of those years. And Kelley got started in the USFL.

Put another way, there's a 5/6 probability that any first-round quarterback is unlikely to be even an average starter just 4 seasons into their career. Some quarterbacks do get hurt. And some have a rough few years, then iron things out into a very good, solid career (Jim Plunkett, Alex Smith, Big Ben again). And some sit, then become great (Aaron Rodgers). But by and large most QB's taken in the 1st round play below average football, if they play at all.
All of this info - I bet someone takes a QB in the first round. Probably Texans on D.W.
For me this years QB class is weak. Just my opinion.
That seems to be the consensus about the quality. At least there doesn't seem to be another Prescott or Wentz who will be doing well in their first NFL season, it looks doubtful but there are always surprises and busts and not only at QB. I think the 49ers will probably take a QB in round two of the draft. Jets and Browns have to be thinking the same and the Texans. it's funny that you mention Alex Smith because the Kansas coach seems to be a fan of Watson and they may be thinking of the post Smith days. The Cardinals and Steelers have to be thinking the same with Palmer and Ben near the end of their careers.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
jmdirt said:
I don't understand how teams evaluate players in general, but especially QBs. Is it old school voodoo? I think Watson will be the best QB out of this crew when we look back in a few years.
Based on....?

If you're saying a weak QB draft class, that I sort of get. Though I do think DeShone Kizer may end up better, as he has a stronger, and more accurate arm, and played more than Trubiski. But even he may not pan out. But I'd be really careful about hype on Watson.

Watson is mostly known for one great game, and a few great, pressure packed drives late, against Alabama. He didn't play an pro system in college. He was fairly slow on his reads. His arm strength is relatively poor. Now, I can hear you argue that Tom Brady doesn't have a great arm. True. But Tom also reads defenses better than any QB in NFL history, and is an extremely accurate passer. Watson is not very accurate, with just over 52% completion, and threw 17 interceptions last year, in college. Yes, he has decent size (not as big as people think, NFL standards), and can run. He is physically gifted. Very few QBs make a career of of being physically gifted. More of them turn out like Colin Kaepernick (who has a much stronger arm than Watson). Even if you look at other big, or physical QB's, Cam and Big Ben come to mind, they find success as passers first.

I've said in several posts that NFL scouts and teams get enamored with college QBs, not based on anything objective, but on almost blind hope, as they've never seen the QB struggle at an NFL level. Here's some numbers that back that up (this applies to not just Watson, btw):

Since 1970, 96 QB's taken in the first around have played at least one game in the NFL over the first four years of their pro career. Only 16 managed to produce an above-average passer rating while throwing at least 1,000 pass attempts through the end of the 4th year. Only two — Jim Kelley and Dan Marino — managed to produce an above-average passer rating in each of those years. And Kelley got started in the USFL.

Put another way, there's a 5/6 probability that any first-round quarterback is unlikely to be even an average starter just 4 seasons into their career. Some quarterbacks do get hurt. And some have a rough few years, then iron things out into a very good, solid career (Jim Plunkett, Alex Smith, Big Ben again). And some sit, then become great (Aaron Rodgers). But by and large most QB's taken in the 1st round play below average football, if they play at all.
I'm not saying that.
 
Aug 9, 2012
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@ on3m@n@rmy
The symptoms he described doesn't sound that serious. Pretty normal actually.

Anyway this feels like Christmas coming up. :D

Does anyone see anyone falling out of their "established range"?

I can think of perhaps Reuben Foster who has been viewed as a top 10 pick, Jabrill Peppers whose been projected to late first/early second, and Caleb Brantley whos been viewed as late 2nd/early 3rd rounder.

How many QBs go in the 1st round? I'm guessing 4.
 

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