Please don't ever bring that up again. Marshawn said it best in the Corona commercial: " just hand it to me...I'm right here"The site advancednflstats.com has a win probability calculator, where you can plug in various game factors like score differential, time left, where the ball is, etc. But I can't access it. Another site that used that calculator said it came up with a 7% chance of winning if trailing by 1 on its own 20 with 30" left.
However, Football Reference also has a calculator, and it says the WP for.a team trailing by 1 with the ball on its own 20 with 30" left is about 22-23%. I don't know why the discrepancy, but this is closer to what Hitch says. Since the average starting position following a KO is the 25, we could use that, and the probability rises slightly, 24-25%. For a 30% chance of winning, i.e., the team that made the two point conversion has a 70% chance to win, the receiving team has to start at its own 42.
Win Probability Calculator | Pro-Football-Reference.comWin Probability Calculatorwww.pro-football-reference.com
So, if you go for two, and are an average team, you have a 48% chance of making it, and let's say a 75% chance of holding the lead: so only a 36% chance of winning. If you kick, you have a 95% chance of tying. But the other team still has a 25% chance of winning, same as if you made the two points, so you have 71% chance of going into OT. If the odds are 50% of winning in OT, your overall chances of winning if you kick are 36%. It's basically a tossup, and probably comes down to contingencies like your team's defense, etc.
What Hitch missed is that if you kick and tie the game, you don't automatically go into OT. Whatever probability the other team has of coming back to win after a 2-point conversion also holds if the game is tied. Maybe the other team will be a little more conservative, but it won't just capitulate if it has a chance to win in regulation.
By the way: Remember how Pete Carroll was ridiculed for passing from the 1 yard line in the SB? Using that same calculator, Seattle's WP before that play--26 seconds left, first and goal from the 1: was 46-47%. IOW, scoring a TD and winning the game was not a slam dunk. Even if SE had scored, NE would have had about a 15% chance of coming back with a FG to tie the game, and about a 10% chance of winning (most likely in OT, but also a small chance in regulation).
That was a call that broke a team. Thank you for being kind in the future.