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I think that it depends on the actual medical conclusion, and how he looks at pro day (he needs to be cautious IMO). My concern is how stable the injury is. Pelvic injuries (pelvic wall esp) can be difficult at best. It is absolutely critical that he has 100% bone repair, THEN soft tissue rebuilding. My assumption is that they have been working on range of motion and stability, but nothing more. Honestly, I'd be surprised if he plays this season...that doesn't mean that someone won't draft him to watch and learn though. Also, IMO he should have returned to AL to prove that his body is good. If he drops a few rounds, I'm correct, if he still goes in the first round, I might be wrong, if he goes in the first round and has a great rookie season, I'm really wrong. :D
I agree with pretty much everything here, but I don't agree with that highlighted bit. He may slip down but someone's going to take a punt on him in the first round, current prediction is Miami trading away a bunch of picks to move up and snag him. I actually think they will be able to get him at 5th anyway. For Tua I think it's a no brainer. You either take another season at AL to prove yourself and maybe be the number one pick next year, but possibly risk showing your injuries are too much and never making the draft. Or, you throw your lot in, get picked up in the first round and take your signing bonus, any guaranteed money and get a payday. It might be a bit less than you'd get next year if it goes to plan, but it's a lot more than nothing which is what you risk if it goes wrong.

I think Herbert and Tagovailoa might shift in the order though. Unless Miami think they can fix that defence, taking a possibly fragile QB instead of a 6' 6", 235+ lb QB like Herbert might seem like too much of a gamble.
 
I agree with pretty much everything here, but I don't agree with that highlighted bit. He may slip down but someone's going to take a punt on him in the first round, current prediction is Miami trading away a bunch of picks to move up and snag him. I actually think they will be able to get him at 5th anyway. For Tua I think it's a no brainer. You either take another season at AL to prove yourself and maybe be the number one pick next year, but possibly risk showing your injuries are too much and never making the draft. Or, you throw your lot in, get picked up in the first round and take your signing bonus, any guaranteed money and get a payday. It might be a bit less than you'd get next year if it goes to plan, but it's a lot more than nothing which is what you risk if it goes wrong.

I think Herbert and Tagovailoa might shift in the order though. Unless Miami think they can fix that defence, taking a possibly fragile QB instead of a 6' 6", 235+ lb QB like Herbert might seem like too much of a gamble.
Who knows how the QBs will actually go in the draft but I've read that both LAC and MIA want Herbert. The rumor with Tua is WADC or DET. I actually like the DET idea because he could learn from Stafford for a year. There are several potential free agent things that can happen and that would really change the QB draft.
 
Yeah, the QB situation is really interesting. I'm not sure what next years draft looks like, but I think if you're inline for a top 3-4 QB this year you'd be better taking them and leaving the free agents alone. People are even taking about teams picking up Cam Newton which seems like a massive gamble.

I'd read Tua to MIA and Justin to LAC.
 
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According to some of the latest draft forecasts Tua is still slated to go in the top 10. Washington and Miami have interest which means Washington have doubts about Haskins who plummeted down the draft order during the last draft and seemed a bit miffed when Jones was selected much earlier than him. Hysteria still, about where Brady is going if anywhere and also talk of the Bears being interested in Andy Dalton. Dallas looking uncertain about Dak as a long term proposition. Sounds like they might franchise him. As for Newton, it's looking harder and harder for him. Chargers also need a QB and the Raiders seem to want a new one. Rivers has been linked to Tampa, another rumor, and Mariota it seems could end up at many teams ! The silly season in full swing.
 
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I think Herbert and Tagovailoa might shift in the order though. Unless Miami think they can fix that defense, taking a possibly fragile QB instead of a 6' 6", 235+ lb QB like Herbert might seem like too much of a gamble.
Both guys to me are a similar gamble. With Tua it's the injury, as noted, he may not even throw much at his pro day, meaning it's going to be a real roll of the dice for any team picking him expecting him to start in week 1 next year.

As to Herbert, even he's said he's not entirely sure he's ready to start right away in the NFL. He's big and looks like an NFL QB, but he's also prone to mistakes and is going to have to get used to the speed of the NFL. This could take just a couple weeks, or an entire season or more. It all depends on how desperate a team is. I can easily see him being the next Josh Rosen if he's asked to save a bad team.

Yes, Lawrence is going to be eligible next year, as he was still a true sophomore this year. He definitely has to be considered the biggest prize coming out of college since John Elway. Maybe bigger. This means bigger than Peyton Manning, bigger than Andrew Luck. Expect teams to tank, and get ready for a potential trade frenzy if the worst team has a QB already (like, Cincinnati, or whoever takes Tua, if they stink and Tua doesn't play much, but looks great when he does.)
 
As I listen to (read about) these guys 'demanding' atrocious amounts of money, it makes me appreciate TB12 even more. Even though it gets mentioned frequently as a passing comment, his willingness to make less/restructure is a big part of his and their success over the years. Many/most wouldn't be willing to do it. Obviously it helps him when they can bring in more support and he understood that, but a lot of the guys are more worried about having the biggest $$ number.

IMO its lame when people say: "well he could make less because his wife makes more than him)." If anything, that would make most guys want to make more.
 
As I listen to (read about) these guys 'demanding' atrocious amounts of money, it makes me appreciate TB12 even more. Even though it gets mentioned frequently as a passing comment, his willingness to make less/restructure is a big part of his and their success over the years. Many/most wouldn't be willing to do it. Obviously it helps him when they can bring in more support and he understood that, but a lot of the guys are more worried about having the biggest $$ number.

IMO its lame when people say: "well he could make less because his wife makes more than him)." If anything, that would make most guys want to make more.
And if he wanted he could make even more from endorsements/commercials. He's constantly shown he just wants "it" more than you. I would love to have his work ethic and drive the older I get in my career.
 
Brady deserves his pay day but has left it a bit late to start making demands. Learning a new system at his age to complete his last contract of probably two seasons will scare off many teams as they know they will soon have to replace him anyway. The only teams that should be interested are the few teams that need to win now and have questions about their current QB. Obviously he will be a quick study you would think. I think this is more about Brady feeling unappreciated at the Patriots whether it is actually true or not. The coach has never played favourites it seems. There are a few intriguing prospects for him but many seem to think it's too late to happen now and Kraft will probably override Bill again as he did in the Jimmy G situation which begs the question : If Brady is kept will Bill possibly move on or will he just ride out the remaining Brady years ? He was miffed enough to give Jimmy G away when the Browns offered more which is very unlike Bill but Kraft didn't seem too concerned about that as he got what he wanted with another SB win. The 49ers knew at the time that Jimmy was their best option at QB as Cousins was going to be even more expensive and obviously keeping Hoyer for longer made no sense.

If the 49ers were going to change their QB, now would be the ideal time and if Brady really wants to play for another franchise and coach it has to happen now or never. Something tells me that Jimmy could be out at the 49ers if they don't have a similar season to last year. It all depends on how Lynch and Shanahan view Jimmy's room for improvement but he was 10 minutes away from winning a SB in his first full season and was the better QB for three quarters of the game. The right QB change would be crucial to the 49ers while with the Patriots, they look as though they need more team tinkering to get back to the SB and if Brady leaves, that means even more changes. Something tells me that both QBs are staying put for the moment but Kraft will have a tougher job this time in convincing Brady to stay.
 
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I think the 49ers would be nuts to dump Jimmy G for Brady (who is from NorCal, and apparently would love to play for SF). Even peak Brady couldn't guarantee a SB win in two years (it was about one in three at NE, and that was with the best coach in the business), and Brady is far from his peak. Suppose they have him for two years, no SB, and they're stuck with no QB for the future. The odds of them finding a new QB as good as JG are pretty low. The 49ers have already shown they can get to the SB with JG. it wasn't his fault they blew a ten point lead midway through the fourth quarter.

In fact, JG had better passing stats this past season than Brady had. You can argue that he had a better supporting cast, but even giving Brady every benefit of the doubt, there's no reason to think that past 40 he's so much superior to JG that he would be worth throwing away the future for a two year gamble. Even dominant regular season teams aren't assured of winning a SB (the Ravens are just the latest example). All you can do is field a team that gets you to the playoffs, and has a realistic chance to go all the way. The 49ers are one of those teams right now, I don't see the point in messing with that.

On the contrary, the win-while-the-window-is-open philosophy ignores the fact that the best chance a team in any sport has of winning. championship is not getting loaded for a short period of time, but having consistently good teams over a long period of time. Your chances are much better then. The Pats didn't win all those SB by being the best team in each of those years. They won by being a very good team over a long period of time, putting themselves in position to take advantage of breaks in some years. They weren't the best team when they won their first SB,. They were good enough to make the postseason, then they got lucky. Conversely, they were the better team when they lost two SB to the Giants.
 
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I think the 49ers would be nuts to dump Jimmy G for Brady (who is from NorCal, and apparently would love to play for SF). Even peak Brady couldn't guarantee a SB win in two years (it was about one in three at NE, and that was with the best coach in the business), and Brady is far from his peak. Suppose they have him for two years, no SB, and they're stuck with no QB for the future. The odds of them finding a new QB as good as JG are pretty low. The 49ers have already shown they can get to the SB with JG. it wasn't his fault they blew a ten point lead midway through the fourth quarter.

In fact, JG had better passing stats this past season than Brady had. You can argue that he had a better supporting cast, but even giving Brady every benefit of the doubt, there's no reason to think that past 40 he's so much superior to JG that he would be worth throwing away the future for a two year gamble. Even dominant regular season teams aren't assured of winning a SB (the Ravens are just the latest example). All you can do is field a team that gets you to the playoffs, and has a realistic chance to go all the way. The 49ers are one of those teams right now, I don't see the point in messing with that.
Yeah I agree, I don't see it happening. If Bill hadn't made the trade the 49ers would have chased Cousins, they already were. Don't see Jimmy leaving at the moment and as you said, he had a good season. The 49ers just played a bad final quarter including the coach. Didn't make the plays they needed to and that included the defense and you can't keep giving the ball back to Mahomes with that offense. The Patriots are the ones who need to find a new QB before long.
 
The whole Brady / Jimmy G swap talk sounds exactly like what I heard on Cowherd, who works for Fox Sports. I can almost guarantee Fox tells Cowherd to talk about certain teams (Pats, Boys, Pack, etc). Not that Fox tells Cow to say good things about those teams or players on those teams, just to include those teams in topics for discussion at some regular frequency. At least, that is what it seems like. But I also do not see that swap as likely, even if JG is not that great of a QB.

Well, the Boys just offered Dak $105M guaranteed at $33M/year. At only $2M/year less than Wilson and far much lesser talent he'd be nuts to not take it. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2879718-cowboys-rumors-dak-prescott-offered-105m-guaranteed-on-new-contract
 
The whole Brady / Jimmy G swap talk sounds exactly like what I heard on Cowherd, who works for Fox Sports. I can almost guarantee Fox tells Cowherd to talk about certain teams (Pats, Boys, Pack, etc). Not that Fox tells Cow to say good things about those teams or players on those teams, just to include those teams in topics for discussion at some regular frequency. At least, that is what it seems like. But I also do not see that swap as likely, even if JG is not that great of a QB.

Well, the Boys just offered Dak $105M guaranteed at $33M/year. At only $2M/year less than Wilson and far much lesser talent he'd be nuts to not take it. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2879718-cowboys-rumors-dak-prescott-offered-105m-guaranteed-on-new-contract
I posted this a few weeks back it might help you 'understand' the silly monster: :D

So "sources" have linked TB12 to every team but SEA, GB, AZ, TX, NOLA, KC, and BUF (JAX too a bit because the story there was "MIA, TB or other FL team" so they weren't 'specifically' named but...). It takes silly season to an entirely new level! :)

Of the list above, BUF is the only that could be potentially added to the list I guess because RW, AR, KM, DB, PM are pretty set so we've reached the end of the story...time to start back around!
 
It would be funny if TB12 went to Buffalo to increase his New Era Field win amount.

Again I don't think he's moving but it'll be cool if he went to Mia, Ten, Dal (though Skip would never stop talking), LAC, or Det. Three of those he worked with quite a bit and if AB follows it'll be crazy and baring a huge drop, Super Bowl bound favorites. I think McDaniels staying causes TB12 to stay.
 
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I posted this a few weeks back it might help you 'understand' the silly monster: :D

So "sources" have linked TB12 to every team but SEA, GB, AZ, TX, NOLA, KC, and BUF (JAX too a bit because the story there was "MIA, TB or other FL team" so they weren't 'specifically' named but...). It takes silly season to an entirely new level! :)

Of the list above, BUF is the only that could be potentially added to the list I guess because RW, AR, KM, DB, PM are pretty set so we've reached the end of the story...time to start back around!
Don't think that is far off what they originally offered Dak. Think Wilson is on 36. As you say more than fair but it wouldn't surprise me if Dak turned it down. Mahomes next contract will reset the QB market again and it will be interesting to see how it effects the Chiefs.
 
Brady tweeted something supportive about AB. I'm wondering that if TB were in discussion with another team, one of his conditions was that the team had to sign AB. He really seems to want to play with him.

No discussion about the new CBA proposal? There will no suspensions--fines only--for testing positive for "substances of abuse"? That apparently includes any drug the NFL tests for, legal or not, as long as it's not classified as performance enhancing. It makes me wonder, though, what happens when the drug use brings in the law. If a player is busted for cocaine possession, does he nevertheless escape suspension? What about DUI?

It only takes a simple majority vote of the players to go into effect. Would any player vote against it? Why?
 
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Brady tweeted something supportive about AB. I'm wondering that if TB were in discussion with another team, one of his conditions was that the team had to sign AB. He really seems to want to play with him.

No discussion about the new CBA proposal? There will no suspensions--fines only--for testing positive for "substances of abuse"? That apparently includes any drug the NFL tests for, legal or not, as long as it's not classified as performance enhancing. It makes me wonder, though, what happens when the drug use brings in the law. If a player is busted for cocaine possession, does he nevertheless escape suspension? What about DUI?

It only takes a simple majority vote of the players to go into effect. Would any player vote against it? Why?
Sounds pretty odd to me. As clear as mud. And how large will the fines be ? And what sort of message does it send to potential NFL players ? Sounds like another way of convincing the players to go with all of the proposed changes. The owners really want to get that 17 game, 7 team playoff change through it seems.
 
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Brady deserves his pay day but has left it a bit late to start making demands.
He's made over $200m in his career...
On the contrary, the win-while-the-window-is-open philosophy ignores the fact that the best chance a team in any sport has of winning. championship is not getting loaded for a short period of time, but having consistently good teams over a long period of time.
I agree with all you wrote. Take a look at the Steelers. Not only the most SB wins, but also the long history of winning seasons and playoff runs. Even in their down seasons, even when they have a string of games where they look terrible, they still manage to at least make a run at the playoffs every year.
No discussion about the new CBA proposal? There will no suspensions--fines only--for testing positive for "substances of abuse"? ...It only takes a simple majority vote of the players to go into effect. Would any player vote against it?
My gut is as it was before, this is all about money. The owners want more games, a longer season, and longer playoffs, so they can make more money. That's all that matters to them, so they're willing to sacrifice this. They're also, as I said before, doing all they can to pit the top (earning) players against the rank and file players (who outnumber them, by far).
 
My gut is as it was before, this is all about money. The owners want more games, a longer season, and longer playoffs, so they can make more money. That's all that matters to them, so they're willing to sacrifice this. They're also, as I said before, doing all they can to pit the top (earning) players against the rank and file players (who outnumber them, by far).
Going back to what MERCKXI said, players don't care about fines cuz they make so much. They only care about suspensions. So I agree, Alpe, with you that this is all about money (more games, more playoffs - so owners can make more money). So the proposal is tit for tat, I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine. Or more bluntly, the proposal smells like bribery to get players to agree to more games. Who knows, maybe owners will sacrifice all their principles to seduce players to agree to more games.

For me, this latest proposal, if it goes into effect, is an abomination that will end my interest in the NFL. As for the proposal itself, what a disappointment!
 
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Brady tweeted something supportive about AB. I'm wondering that if TB were in discussion with another team, one of his conditions was that the team had to sign AB. He really seems to want to play with him.

No discussion about the new CBA proposal? There will no suspensions--fines only--for testing positive for "substances of abuse"? That apparently includes any drug the NFL tests for, legal or not, as long as it's not classified as performance enhancing. It makes me wonder, though, what happens when the drug use brings in the law. If a player is busted for cocaine possession, does he nevertheless escape suspension? What about DUI?

It only takes a simple majority vote of the players to go into effect. Would any player vote against it? Why?
CBA: I looked at the edges/main points a bit, but haven't taken the time to dig deeper. I'm waiting to see what happens before I spend too much time on it. If the players vote it in, I might be up for a closer look and discussion (or I might just shrug and go "OK" :))

EDIT:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28851848/aaron-rodgers-unsure-players-really-looking-cba
 
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USA Today has an article saying it's certain Brady is going to the Raiders. While NFL.com is saying Derek Carr is trade bait, with the Raiders ready to dump him.

This caused me to do some looking, let's compare Derek Carr, 2019, to Tom Brady, 2019.

• In QBR, Carr was 62.2 (10th), while Brady was 53.7 (17th).

• In Passer Rating, Carr was 100.8 (9th), while Brady was 88.0 (18th).

• In completion %, Carr was 70.4 (2nd in league!), while Brady was 60.8 (27th).

• That last stat may make you think Carr was throwing a lot shorter passes, but that's not true either. Carr was throwing passes an average of 7.9 yards, versus just 6.6 for Brady.

• Tom threw 3 more TD's, but had a lower TD % (3.9 to 4.1 for Carr).

• The only other stat I can find of Tom's that was better was he threw for 4057 yards, versus 4054, a measly three yards, but threw the ball 100 more times to get those three yards.

Derek Carr is also 28 years old, arguably coming off his best year on a team with a poor defense, while Tom is 42 coming off a year on a team with one of the best defenses in NFL history.

I'm not saying Carr is going to have a hall of fame career, or that Tom won't be good next year, maybe the year after, but it seems to me the notion of dumping Carr to get Brady can only be rooted in selling tickets, or memorabilia and could put the Raiders in a hole for years and years to come.
 
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