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Alpe d'Huez

Alpe d'Huez

Mar 11, 2009
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I suppose one could create an over/under in expected wins, or passer rating, QBR, for almost any rookie this year and gauge from that. But I think almost all of them may get some sort of mulligan, except probably Caleb Williams. What I mean is Wash/Daniels, NE/Maye, Minn/JJ, Den/Nix are on teams pretty much rebuilding. They will be measured against one another, but by some metric they may be measured against Bryce Young's disaster of a season. If they play worse than Bryce, then it's a really bad sign. Does this mean Bryce set a new low? Maybe it does, but he was an a disaster of a team. There is however higher expectations for Williams, and the Bears, as they have a better roster.

This makes me wonder what kind of expectations there will be for Bryce Young. I mean, a lot of people have just about tossed him into the "bust" bin already.

One guy I think could have a breakout season is Anthony Richardson. Reps are always good, and injuries always bad, but I think playing some, and sitting a lot, may have helped him in a big way for the future.
jmdirt said:
NFL Chain Gang.
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All one has to do is watch any UFL game to see how officiating should be done. They use modern technology that makes this determination very fast. The game moves much quicker than the NFL. Plus their review system, "super challenge" plus the fact the ref's are all mic'd up, is vastly superior to the NFL's antiquated system stuck in the last century.

Though I think many in the NFL like it that way. Controversy sells to some degree, and it allows them to manipulate games, officiating, more, in order to get teams they want into the playoffs. I'm not saying the entire thing is rigged. Just that there is a bias that happens, whether it's by the direction and decisions of the referees, or the antiquated system allows a higher opportunity, even compelling situations, for bias. All one has to do is look at that Dallas-Detroit game last year.
Unchained said:
Breaking news!! Seattle. Seahawks signed Caitlan Clark to $300 million dollar contract to play quarterback!! She was offered an extra $40 million per year to be the player coach, she called Pete Rose and Pete Carroll and declined the job!!
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Just read a report it was really Pete Rozelle who nixed the deal.
 
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Oldermanish

Jan 31, 2016
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Nomad said:
It's SB or bust for the Jets. Ownership had stated they're one QB away from SB stardom, and they now got their man. But FFS, he couldn't even get out of the blocks last year! Lol. So, anything short of a SB appearance will be considered a failure since there's not a lot left in AR's tank - and arguably this could be his last season.

With the exception of Brady, these situations where ownership brings in an aging elite SB-winning QB near retirement to instantaneously lead them to the promised land is a joke.

Historically, it hasn't work out very well. And the Jets tried this strategy back in 2008 with Favre. He lasted one season with the Jets going 9-7 & playing the 2nd half of the season with a torn biceps tendon! Lol.

And it didn't even work out with Montana at KC in 1993/94 where he was an unimpressive 17-8 in two seasons (missed a lot of games due to injury), and 2-2 in the playoffs & no SB. And what was his final demise - he was knock out with a concussion in the 94 AFC championship game...sad. And of course, Wilson was a colossal failure with Broncos.

What's next? If things go to crap in Pittsburgh - place a call for Big Ben to come out of retirement? Lol.
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There is the possibility that Aaron will also start passing to some imaginary receivers. Not that he's that old :
he just believes alot of imaginary things.
 
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Nomad

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Alpe d'Huez said:
This makes me wonder what kind of expectations there will be for Bryce Young. I mean, a lot of people have just about tossed him into the "bust" bin already.
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I would imagine expectations are very high. Carolina can't afford to have another season like last year - Tepper would probably have a nervous breakdown. Lol. Interestingly, there's a precedent set where a #1 OA had a disastrous rookie season & completely turned it around in his 2nd season.

1998 Colts: Manning's rookie season was a nightmare: 3-13 & last in the division. Manning threw a career high 26 picks & had his lowest QB rating ever. The following year was like presto: 13-3 & a division title. Manning cut the picks down almost in half & his QB rating soared. A star was born in that 2nd season.

Could Young & the Panthers have a breakout season like Manning or will it be more or less the same as last year?
 
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Alpe d'Huez

Alpe d'Huez

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If the Panthers go 13-4, and Young has a truly breakout season matching that of PM, I'll wear a David Tepper mask to my next Super Bowl party.

I thought I'd look that up, #1 OA picks 2nd season vs. 1st. It's a mix, some improved in 3rd year, some go through waves, and some never really improve much.
  • Trevor Lawrence | 2021 - Did show improvement in 2nd year, after a huge coaching change. Not much since.
  • Joe Burrow | 2020 - Definite improvement. 2-7 to 10-6 (3rd year even better).
  • Kyler Murray | 2019 - Team won 3 more games, but his numbers were almost the same. Won Madden bowl.
  • Baker Mayfield | 2018 - Very slight improvement (3rd year better. Again, coaching changes).
  • Jared Goff | 2016 - Vast improvement! 0-7 to 11-4, much better numbers overall across the board!
  • Jamis Winston | 2015 - 2nd season was nearly identical to his first. Rest of his career about the same.
  • Andrew Luck | 2015 - Went 11-5 each of first 3 years. One improvement was he cut down on picks.
  • Cam Newton | 2011 - Very similar numbers in first 2 years, 3rd year more of a breakout. 6th year MVP.
  • Sam Bradford | 2010 - Slightly regressed, before being injured. Never really improved (or healed).
  • Matthew Stafford | 2009 - About the same, then hurt. Did improve in year 3, and steadily after.
  • Jamarcus Russell | 2007 - Just flat out terrible both years. Never played past his 3rd season (bad also).
  • Alex Smith | 2005 - Steady improvement. Hurt in 3rd year, missed 4th year.
I am stopping here. Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, David Carr and Tim Couch are after, and then Peyton Manning.
 
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Nomad

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Alpe d'Huez said:
If the Panthers go 13-4, and Young has a truly breakout season matching that of PM, I'll wear a David Tepper mask to my next Super Bowl party.

I thought I'd look that up, #1 OA picks 2nd season vs. 1st. It's a mix, some improved in 3rd year, some go through waves, and some never really improve much.
  • Trevor Lawrence | 2021 - Did show improvement in 2nd year, after a huge coaching change. Not much since.
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If that were to happen with the Panthers, you definitely would have to post some pics! Lol

Btw, excellent research on the #1 OAs.

I'm going to disagree with you a little on Lawrence. I think his breakout season was his 2nd yr showing definite promise for a bright future. His rookie season was a nightmare: 17 picks & 5 fumbles lost (only 12 TD passes) and a QB Rtg of 71. The team stunk finishing 3-14 & last in the division.

In his second season it was a complete reversal throwing for over 4100 yds, 25 TD passes to only 8 picks & a much improved QB Rtg of 95. Though the team only finished 9-8, they won the division & more importantly he won his first playoff game vs SD. And moving on to the divisional round, they lost in a close one to KC.

Last year they started off as gangbusters going 8-3 & looking good for another division title before things imploded with the injuries to Lawrence (high ankle sprain, A/C joint sprain, concussion). He missed one game & struggled playing hurt in the other 5 as the team spiraled out of control going 1-5. Though they finished 9-8, that wasn't good enough to win the division nor qualify for a WC. Without the injuries to Lawrence they might have had a 11 or 12 win season. So, when you say "not much since," you have to factor in the 2nd half season injuries that unraveled this team after a most impressive start.

I'm going to make a bold prediction that if Lawrence doesn't get injured this year, this team will win the division and have a deep playoff run. They have one of the best TEs in the business & Etienne Jr is a proven workhorse with 1500 scrimmage yards last year. And the addition of Brian Thomas Jr from LSU (4th receiver taken in the draft) has blazing speed (4.33) & good size (6-3, 210). This is the badly needed deep threat for Lawrence. But again, I'll reiterate - Lawrence has got to stay healthy or this team will sink like the Titanic.
 
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SHAD0W93

SHAD0W93

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movingtarget

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SHAD0W93 said:
It’d just be the question on talent getting down the field and catching the ball then oline blocking to help create time. But they can be improved from this year in long sustained drives I would think.
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Even the so called game manager with the weak arm Purdy went downfield more than Mahomes last season ! Mahomes is much more dangerous when he goes deep. But it seemed to be across the league last season that downfield throws happened less and defenses improved. Players like Nacua dominated in the middle of the field.
 
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Alpe d'Huez

Alpe d'Huez

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Of course, one could say that about almost any team, right? As long as our guys get open and catch the ball, and our OL protects...

I don't personally think Purdy has a weak arm. I think it's average. What I think is Purdy is timid about throwing deep. I've posted this a dozen times (stole it from Mike Martz) but deep field accuracy, is really the key to throwing deep. Kurt Warner is the best example. He had a good arm, not a rocket, but he could throw 40+ yards downfield on a dime. That's what you want. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are two modern examples perhaps, maybe Aaron Rodgers too in the last decade or so, but these guys have really strong arms too.

Love Nick Wright, but why didn't anyone question that Rodgers decided he just didn't want to attend minicamp, and the team would suck it up? He is special, you know?

As to Trevor Lawerence, he just signed a massive extension, almost the same as Joe Burrow. So Jacksonville better play good! I agree though, he's hurt, and down goes the ship. Though you could say this about any number of teams, even KC.

www.espn.com

Has Trevor Lawrence earned his new contract? What's next for the Jaguars' offense?

The Jaguars reached an agreement with Lawrence on a five-year, $275 million extension, a source told ESPN.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
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movingtarget

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Purdy definitely isn't timid about making difficult throws which was also one of the signatures of his college game. He would get a bit over confident. He's started for less than two seasons and already been in the mix for MVP last season which was pretty much ruined by the Ravens game. Shanahan always said that confidence is something Purdy never lacked and it showed from the first game against Miami.. In his second start he totally outplayed Brady. The game manager moniker given to Purdy by Nick Wright and Cam Newton has been blown out of proportion. Like Kansas the downhill throws might happen more often this season as the 49ers have added more speed to their offense.

The Lawrence contract will be eclipsed pretty quickly probably by Dak. I'd be surprised if Purdy's extension goes that high but if he makes another SB and has another impressive season who knows ? The QB market like the WR market is on the rise every season.
 
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Alpe d'Huez

Alpe d'Huez

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Didn't say he was timid, period. I said he was timid about throwing deep. Big difference. You can watch A22 film and see he's had several opportunities were he has a receiver 1:1 deep and won't let the ball go. It happened in the Superbowl when I think Aiyuk deep covered by a safety, and decided to look for something else.

I personally think calling him a "game manager" though is absolute total BS. I think rooted in media "experts" who failed to see he could even make it in the NFL, and are worried it makes them look like fools, so they do what they can to put him down.

"But he has a great team around him". Yeah, so did Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly, Terry Bradshaw, and a slew of other HOF quarterbacks. They played together as a team, and made each other great.

Hey, remember that lucky QB who had Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark to throw to? And he could hand the ball off to Edgrin James. What was his name again? I can't recall. Probably just some game manager.
 
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Nomad

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Alpe d'Huez said:
As to Trevor Lawerence, he just signed a massive extension, almost the same as Joe Burrow. So Jacksonville better play good! I agree though, he's hurt, and down goes the ship. Though you could say this about any number of teams, even KC.
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Insane! He now ties Burrow as the highest paid player in league history! I wasn't aware of the new contract he signed when I made that post. This changes everything. From this point onward it's a deep run in the playoffs with a SB appearance over the next 2-3 yrs or the next Payton Manning is a bust. At least Burrow has already taken the team to the SB.
 
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Nomad

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Alpe d'Huez said:
I don't personally think Purdy has a weak arm. I think it's average. What I think is Purdy is timid about throwing deep. I've posted this a dozen times (stole it from Mike Martz) but deep field accuracy, is really the key to throwing deep. Kurt Warner is the best example. He had a good arm, not a rocket, but he could throw 40+ yards downfield on a dime. That's what you want. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are two modern examples perhaps, maybe Aaron Rodgers too in the last decade or so, but these guys have really strong arms too.
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That's nonsense that Purdy has a "weak arm." A QB can't even survive in the league unless he can make  all the NFL throws which includes the deep ball.

There's hundreds of college QBs every year (add up FBS, FCS, D-2, D-3, etc.) that never get a chance to make it the NFL. The #1 reason is they don't have an NFL-caliber arm...simple. And with the passing game such a big emphasis in the league, a prospect has got to have a NFL-caliber arm just to get a foot in the door.

The few QBs that come around every now & then with alien arms (Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, etc) get all the attention & make the other QBs look like their arms are weak. Lol. But these guys are very rare in terms of distance they can throw & velocity.
 
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