National Football League

[Pazuzu]

Just recall the draft where the Jets got Sanchize... Jets fans in attendance were extatic. Now they have to go back to the drawing board.

If I were the Jets' general manager I'd do everything in my power to get Matt Flynn from Seattle. And if that didn't happen I'd try to get Alex Smith. Either one of these guys would be vastly superior to Sanchez.

Regarding Sanchez guaranteed contract, perhaps someone would be willing to take him (Pete Carroll's Seattle perhaps) if the Jets agreed to pay half his salary.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Two things I recall from last night's game that stood out. First, was the return of the fans dressed as Hogs.

The problem with Sanchez is that the Jets gave him that huge contract in the off-season, and with it he's guaranteed $8.5m next season. So they have to find a team that's a sucker who will take that, have him sit for that much, or play him. At this point though if I were the Jets, I'd at least see what Greg McElroy can do. He played okay in pre-season, and last week. The season is all but over, give the kid a shot. Either that, or Tebow (who is gone next year almost for certain)..

Love the Hogs thing. Dawg Pound and Black Hole too. Sanchez's contract... that is a huge one to bite off, a real boat anchor. I can't figure how this will end up. Restructure and take a big pay cut and become attractive and affordable to a team needing a backup? But if not playing, why would he restructure... just sit and take the money. Certainly a team needing a starter would not take him. Time will tell I guess.

Thanks for the draft tidbits.

If I were the Jets' general manager I'd do everything in my power to get Matt Flynn from Seattle. And if that didn't happen I'd try to get Alex Smith. Either one of these guys would be vastly superior to Sanchez.

Regarding Sanchez guaranteed contract, perhaps someone would be willing to take him (Pete Carroll's Seattle perhaps) if the Jets agreed to pay half his salary.

Seattle might be willing to give up Flynn, but maybe not just yet. You know how some rookie QBs (e.g. Mirer) come out and take rookie of the year award and then bomb the next year. Mirer never did recover. So Seattle would be smart to keep Flynn as insurance in case Wilson bombs... although I think the odds of Wilson bombing into a sophomore slump is really low. But Schnieder and Carroll are shrewd enough that if they are confident Wilson won't bomb, then they could deal Flynn away to a pretty sweet deal. Plus, while Seattle only has 2 active QBs on their roster, Seattle still has QB Josh Portis on the practice squad. And Portis is a promising prospect and could be a descent backup. So at worst, Seattle would just need to shore up the backup QB postion if they dealt Flynn.

Alex Smith to the Jets is more likely, since the relationship between Flynn and Seattle coaches is better than Smith to Harbaugh. It's almost like the skids are already greased for Smith to go.

But because of the nasty big contract Sanchez has, as Alpe pointed out, Sanch may not be going anywhere. Then can Jets afford to go out and grab a Flynn? I dunno.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Regarding Sanchez guaranteed contract, perhaps someone would be willing to take him (Pete Carroll's Seattle perhaps) if the Jets agreed to pay half his salary.

That's unlikely, without the contract being restructured completely. The reason why is because of the salary cap and way the CBA is structured in the NFL. This kind of deal works better in MLB and the NBA, where there are various match clauses that allow the cap to be topped, (and no cap in MLB). But they could spread the guarantee out over 3-4 years, and send him off to be a backup somewhere else. Meanwhile, Rex says Mark is the starter this weekend, not McElroy.

Unless Kaepernick tanks, Smith is definitely somewhere else next season, no question. Very likely one of the teams I listed above. Could Smith end up a Jet, and Sanchez the backup to Kaepernick?

Agree the Seahawks may not give up Matt Flynn easily. He's a great insurance policy, and one of the best backup QB's in the NFL (still!).

Those power rankings are I'm guessing Bleacher Report, and not the AP collective ranking? Here's that link.

1. Houston
2. New England
3. Atlanta
4. Denver
5. San Francisco
6. Baltimore
7. Green Bay
8. NY Giants
9. Chicago
10. Indianapolis

I think Baltimore, GB and Indy too high. Seattle is 12, and should be in the top 10. What may be most interesting is that the NFC is considered superior to the AFC and better head to head. And yet, 4 of the top six teams are in the AFC. I also am not completely sold on Atlanta, and maybe not SF, GB or NYG either. Next week's Houston-NE game should be very telling.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

...Meanwhile, Rex says Mark is the starter this weekend, not McElroy.

Those power rankings are I'm guessing Bleacher Report, and not the AP collective ranking? Here's that link.

I think Baltimore, GB and Indy too high. Seattle is 12, and should be in the top 10. What may be most interesting is that the NFC is considered superior to the AFC and better head to head. And yet, 4 of the top six teams are in the AFC. I also am not completely sold on Atlanta, and maybe not SF, GB or NYG either. Next week's Houston-NE game should be very telling.

Rankings I posted were Fox Sports... FOX, and I agree on GB, IND, SEA, and so on.

Yes, Rex says Sanch is the starter. Sal Pal (antonio) on ESPN (LINK) explained the decision came not from above by the owner, but was Rex's. Sal thinks the reason Rex is sticking with Sanch is then he only has to answer the question "who is your starter this week". IF he chose Tebow or McElroy, then he'd have to answer tougher questions like:
1. were you wrong to draft Sanch?
2. were you wrong to give Sanch $20 million garanteed? ($8.2 Mil of that in 2013)
To me, Rex's decision is nuts and is just delaying the inevitable. He's going to have to answer those 2 questions sometime anyway (IF he still has a Jets job). Why not just bite the bullet and find out what McElroy (&/or Tebow, but Mc would be my choice ATM) can do now (e.g. before the draft)? I guess NY media has a way of making ppl want to avoid those kind of questions.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Agree with all you wrote. I think this is especially true with McElroy. We don't know what he can do. But if they're going to find out, these last four games will answer it now. They play Jax, Ten, SD, and Buf. Perfect training ground for a young QB. Why have Sanchez go out there? My guess is that they are hoping to showcase him against weak competition in order to help dump him, NBA style. I can't think of any other reason. Because even if they win out, they'll be 9-7 and still miss the playoffs. So they're sacrificing a glimpse into the future, in order to potentially lighten the load, IF he plays well. But let's pretend they lose to the hapless Jaguars. Then what do they do?

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Why have Sanchez go out there? My guess is that they are hoping to showcase him against weak competition in order to help dump him, NBA style.

Hoho. That's too funny. That's got to be about the sanest, yet deceptive reason of all to play Sanchez. .

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

If the NFL stopped today and we could now pick rookie of the year (ROY), my pick would go to RG3, hands down. Further, I would not even put Luck in any kind of serious discussion for the ROY honor. Luck would be discussed, for sure, but not seriously. I showed Rodgers and Sanchez just for reference. Is Luck a bad QB... NO. Is he great so far... Yes. Does he have a bright future... I think so. But not ROY. Take a look at today's QB stats and decide for yourself.

RK....QB.....COMP... ATT..... PCT..... YDS.... YDS/A...LONG...TD...INT...SACK....RATE.... YDS/G
1....Rodgers... 279..... 414...... 67.4...... 3,124...... 7.55...... 72...... 29...... 8...... 39...... 105.0...... 260
3....RG III…..... 218..... 325...... 67.1...... 2,660...... 8.19...... 88...... 17...... 4...... 25...... 104.4...... 222
7....Wilson...... 201..... 317...... 63.4...... 2,344...... 7.39...... 51...... 19....... 8...... 23....... 95.2...... 195
29...Luck......... 279..... 503...... 55.5...... 3,596...... 7.15...... 60...... 17...... 16..... 28....... 76.1...... 300
32...Sanchez... 204.... 371...... 55.0...... 2,436...... 6.57...... 66...... 12...... 13..... 29....... 71.4...... 203

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I've got the day off, so here's one of those blog like posts for y'all.

Luck has put up some big numbers, and his team is 8-4 (against unquestionably weaker competition), but RGIII has shown better decision making, better accuracy, and the glaring stat is the TD/INT ratio. Props also to Russell Wilson, who won't win this award, but has topped all expectations. Tannehill also deserves praise as everyone said he'd fail. Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris have also changed their teams, and deserve recognition. Trent missed time early and was hurt, but is making a difference now.

I want to give a shout out to Brady Quinn for his gutsy win last week for KC, and putting up the best numbers of his entire career. Gone are the shaggy hair and arrogant smirk on his face. He didn't play well in the preseason, but when forced to step-up, he's played better than Matt Cassell on a very misguided KC team with a lot of talent. Chapeau. Let's see if he can keep it up against the team that drafted him (and he busted on) this week: Cleveland.

With four games to go, I'm wondering if Adrien Peterson can top 2,000 yards. He's at 1,446 and averaging a whopping 6.2 per carry. Those are Jim Brown/Walter Peyton/Eric Dickerson type numbers. He also dispelled any concerns about his knee.

At the start of the season I said Calvin Johnson may top Jerry Rice impossible single season receiving record of 1,848. He's currently at 1,428. Can he do it?

I also thought Tom Brady may throw for 50 TDs. At 25, he's not going to get close. Doesn't even lead the league (Brees with 31). Brady does only have 4 picks though, which is a very impressive stat.

With four weeks go to, looking to teams depth chart, and potential, the teams to watch are:

AFC

• New England, #1 in yards and points on offense. They can put up huge points, and will likely have Gronkoski back on offense, and rookie Chandler Jones back on defense by season's end. They are still 26th on defense in yardage, but 14th in points allowed. If they can heal, and gel, come playoff team they could steamroll some teams. And if in tight games, the defense may hold well in the red zone where they are needed most.

• Pittsburgh. They are still #1 in defense (yards), and if Polamalu can get healthy, Harrison and other key defenders can get close to 100%, Ike Taylor can make it back, and Ben can heal, they could be a force. The only teams with maybe more key injuries are GB and Balt. The Steelers may also be the best coached team in the NFL.

• Houston. They play with a consistency not seen in other teams. They quietly win every week, sans the blowout loss to GB after Cushing was hurt. 6th in yards and 4th in points on defense. But here's the scary stat: 4th on offense in yards, and 2nd in points. Near guaranteed first round bye, and likely HFA in playoffs. But let's see how they do against NE.

• Denver. I still am on the fence about them. Manning isn't a great cold weather QB, and despite his rising to the top again, I question their ability to win the big one. But they may likely get a 1st round bye, or play at home in at least their first game. They also have a solid defense that doesn't get a lot of credit ranked 3rd, (10th in points). But if they get to the playoffs and have to play NE...

• Baltimore. Ray Lewis will return to practice this week, but no contact and won't play. He may play in two weeks against Denver at the very soonest. My guess is that he'll suit up then, and see limited action. The negative news is that Suggs was again hurt, this time with a partial biceps tear. He says he'll play this week, but limited. The other concern is that Flacco, who looked great early, has looked average of late. Team is 19th on offense, a startling 25th on defense.

NFC

• San Francisco. Despite losing to StL. I still think they have the tools and depth to win it all. They are 2nd on defense in yardage, but 1st in points, with a very stingy 14.6. Way ahead of anyone. On offense Kaepernick gives them a dynamic Smith didn't. But is he too green to win big games? The ugly loss to NYG also sticks out to me though. You can blame Smith for caving in that loss when they fell behind early. But I still need to SF as a whole come from behind in a big game before I'm sold. Be that with Kaepernick, or Smith.

• NYG. A Jeckel-Hyde team. Look like they could repeat SB wins after beating SF and GB handily. Then roll over like dogs against the Bengals, and were beaten up by the Steelers, and looked lost and tired late against the Skins. 10th on offense, but 22nd on defense. But defend the pass very well. There is only so long you can flip the switch on when you need it and have the ball bounce your way in this league. Three tough games left, so if Hyde shows up, they'll miss the playoffs...

• Atlanta. While 10-1, and will get a home field bye at the least, I question their ability to win big games. They looked to me like they peaked eary. They've already eeked some out this year already and I just see them playing the Giants again in the playoffs, and losing another one of those 24-9 games that are over at halftime. We'll get a peek at this come week 15.

• GB. Another schitzo team with a rash of injuries. Not the passing team they were two years ago at 15 on offense, but show flashes of it when they can protect Rodgers and run. Defense is still ranked 16th though, even with Clay Matthews out the last three weeks, Charles Woodson and Mike Neal out the last six, CJ Wilson and Sam Shields out the last four. Think about that for a moment. They have also missed Lang, Saturday, Nelson and Starks on offense who have been either out, or playing hurt. They are still however 8-4 and in first. Matthews back likely in two weeks against Chicago, maybe Woodson this week. If the rest of these wounded guys can heal, they could be very good playoff time. Picture the team that demolished the Texans...

• Seattle. Yes, Seattle. That win at Chicago was a breakthrough. Excellent coaching staff, Wilson is coming into his own though they are still 22nd in passing, and they are very tough at home with 3 home games left there (one against SF. Road game is at Buf). Can they win on the road with Wilson's arm come playoff time? DB Browner will miss the last four games on a suspension, but (so far) Sherman will appeal. How much will losing these two star DB's hurt? Team is 4th on defense, but 24th on offense.

• Chicago. The loss to Seattle showed weaknesses beyond Cutler. And with Urlacher out maybe the rest of the regular season they are vulnerable. I also don't favor teams that win on takeaways or turnover percentage, even though the media loves to exploit this stat. While it shows an aggressive defense, it also often comes with other teams are tired, or desperate late in games and is not something a team can rely on to win.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Thanks to both of you for the analysis and blogging, much appreciated as always. Those QB stats are pretty damn impressive for my boy!

My last three weeks are 37-9, which is way better than any of the ESPN picksters. I'm still waiting for a call.

Eyes down for week 14.

DEN @ OAK -- Cannot imagine Peyton having much trouble with these Raiders
STL @ BUF -- Home advantage will probably tell, but the Rams are improving
ATL @ CAR -- Falcons should continue their roll without too much fuss
DAL @ CIN -- I think the Bengals are a better team right now
KC @ CLE -- A KC miracle two weeks running seems unlikely
TEN @ IND -- Should be a lock if Luck can avoid too many picks
NYJ @ JAC -- Pff, a toss up, going with Jets only because Sanchez is playing for his future (according to some blog)
CHI @ MIN -- Have to go with Da Bears again despite AP running amok.
SD @ PIT -- Should be another lock with Ben back
PHI @ TB -- The Eagles might win a game somewhere, but I'm not picking them
BAL @ WAS -- We're on a roll, the hogs are back, and the Ravens have disappointed on the road. Oh, and there's RG3!
MIA @ SF -- Niners at home, looks like another lock
NO @ NYG -- The Giants will hit back after their embarrassment on MNF, though I would love to see Brees turn them over.
ARI @ SEA -- Should be a stroll, another lock
DET @ GB -- Anything's possible, but I expect the Packers to prevail
HOU @ NE -- Another quality MNF game - I expect Brady to step up and take care of business despite the Texans (maybe) having the better team

 

[Pazuzu]

Anyone have an opinion on the idea being floated to do away with kickoffs?
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...oodell-mulls-idea-of-eliminating-nfl-kickoffs

"After a touchdown or field goal, instead of kicking off, a team would get the ball on its own 30-yard line, where it's fourth-and-15," TIME's Sean Gregory writes. "The options are either to go for it and try to retain possession or punt. If you go for it and fall short, of course, the opposing team would take over with good field position. In essence, a punt replaces the kickoffs."

My initial reaction to this proposal was negative. Mainly because it's such a radical change. But upon further reflection, it might be worth trying for a year. Perhaps it wouldn't seem so radical after it's been in place for a while and adding another decision might add some intrigue. And if it it helped cut down on injuries, all the better.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I had not heard of that, but it may be worth trying. It would definitely change the game. One the problems with changing the kickoff is that it's sometimes one of the most exciting plays in the game. But it does lead to injuries. So this "4th and 15" could lead to some exciting plays, depending on the decisions the teams make.

Back at the start of the season we talked about kickoffs and potential changes to the rules. There was talk of simply making the kicker (or punter) punt the ball instead of kicking it off. And/or forcing the kicking team to have all players, and the defense have 8 players within 5 yards of the 35 yard line when the ball is kicked (sort of like they do on a onsides kick). This would prevent some of the players getting up a huge amount of speed before smashing into one another.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

DEN @ OAK -- Easy pickings.
STL @ BUF -- Home team.
ATL @ CAR -- Falcons win another close game.
DAL @ CIN -- Both teams fighting for playoff run, but Bengals better.
KC @ CLE -- As motivated as Quinn may be, Cleveland is a better team, at home.
TEN @ IND -- Luck rolls at home.
NYJ @ JAX -- Henne leads Jags to win.
CHI @ MIN -- Bears vs. Peterson.
SD @ PIT -- Steelers win with, or without Ben. Chargers missing 3 OL, and have worst coaching staff in NFL. Turner (and AJ Smith) are done.
PHI @ TB -- Bucs decent, Philly a mess.
BAL @ WAS -- I like the Skins at home again.
MIA @ SF -- What happens if Kaep doesn't play well, or (gasp) the 49ers lose?
NO @ NYG -- Saints demolished them a year ago, and are desperate for a win. But the Giants must win too.
ARI @ SEA -- At home. Seahwaks roll. May pitch a shutout.
DET @ GB -- Packers keep winning.
HOU @ NE -- I like the Pats too. Something tells me Brady will still put up yards and TDs in a 34-30 type game.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

My last three weeks are 37-9, which is way better than any of the ESPN picksters. I'm still waiting for a call.

CHI @ MIN -- Have to go with Da Bears again despite AP running amok.

When you get the call, put in a good word for the rest of us picksters to join you.

I'm going to stir up Foxxy and say, while CHI is the popular pick, I think MIN will take CHI down. TBH, CHI was not very impressive last week when they were banged up at all the skill positions except QB. So WR & RB were hurting. This week the injury report on CHI is improved at WR and RB, but still they are banged up there. Plus the injury situation on defense is worse than last week. MIN has a few injuries too, but quite not as bad (tho it is debatable). I should point out Adrian Peterson's injury... never mind it. That dude has 1446 yards @ 6.2 yards/carry and is averaging about 120 yards/game. He has a chance to eclipse 2000 yards for the regular season with 4 games remaining. And CHI had a hard time stopping Marshawn Lynch last week in the second half, and AP is Lynch times 2 (or so). CHI & MIN Injuries (O=out, P=probable, Q=questionable):

CHICAGO..........................MINNESOTA
WR:
- Brandon Marshall Q.........Kyle Rudolph Q
- Alshon Jeffery Q..............Percy Harvin O
- Devin Hester Q
TE:
- Kellen Davis P
RB:
- Matt Forte P......................Adrian Peterson P
- Michael Bush Q

LB:
- Brian Urlacher O.............Jasper Brinkley Q
- Lance Briggs P
S:
- none..................................Harrison Smith P
DT/DE:
- none..................................Letroy Guion P
- none..................................Jared Allen Q
CB:
- Tim Jennings Q...............Antoine Winfield P
- Charles Tillman P

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I've got the day off, so here's one of those blog like posts for y'all.

Luck has put up some big numbers, and his team is 8-4 (against unquestionably weaker competition), but RGIII has shown better decision making, better accuracy, and the glaring stat is the TD/INT ratio.

With four games to go, I'm wondering if Adrien Peterson can top 2,000 yards. He's at 1,446 and averaging a whopping 6.2 per carry.

I forgot you noted that about AP. As I was putting my last post together, I was thinking... where have I seen that thought before? DOH. Here it is.

Pretty much agree with all that in that last post of yours, which the above came from.

Just wanted to expand on the QB numbers discussion:
RK....QB.....COMP... ATT..... PCT....... YDS.... YDS/A..... YDS/COMP
1....Rodgers... 279..... 414...... 67.4...... 3,124...... 7.55....... 11.2
3....RG III…..... 218..... 325...... 67.1...... 2,660...... 8.19...... 12.2
7....Wilson...... 201..... 317...... 63.4...... 2,344...... 7.39...... 11.66
29...Luck......... 279..... 503...... 55.5...... 3,596...... 7.15...... 12.89
32...Sanchez... 204.... 371...... 55.0...... 2,436...... 6.57...... 11.94

Luck has 61 more completions that RG3. At 12.89 yds/comp, that's 786 more yards Luck has thrown than RG3 just because he has thrown more passes. Add that 786 yards (that Griffin might have got if he threw 61 more passes) to RG3's current 2660 yards and it adds to 3446 yards that RG could have thrown by now. Over this many games that is essentially the same. So I don't buy an argument for Luck for ROY based on the fact he's thrown 1100 more yards than RG.

Now consider the rushing:
QB.....ATT.....YDS.....AVG.....LNG.....TD
RG.....105......714.......6.8.......76........6
Luck... 44.......216.......4.9.......19........5
In some ways, those are very similar numbers too, except the yards per carry, which shows RG has the edge when it comes to extending plays by using his legs.

Then, as you said, you have to consider the team records and Indy with Luck sure has been impressive, especially considering our assessments of the strength of each team prior to the season. So one could say Luck has brought his team further.

I would favor RG at this point just based on the stats like QBR and ability to extend plays, but it will be interesting to see who wins ROY. A lot depends on what happens from here on out. Even Wilson has a chance to have his name entered into the discussion, which is happening already to some extent. But noone yet seriously considers him for ROY, which so far is understandable. But IF... IF he did something really special in the final 4 games, make it into the playoffs and do well. Who knows? I know he is thinking it's not over till the fat lady sings. That's just Russell.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Anyone have an opinion on the idea being floated to do away with kickoffs?
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...oodell-mulls-idea-of-eliminating-nfl-kickoffs

"After a touchdown or field goal, instead of kicking off, a team would get the ball on its own 30-yard line, where it's fourth-and-15," TIME's Sean Gregory writes. "The options are either to go for it and try to retain possession or punt. If you go for it and fall short, of course, the opposing team would take over with good field position. In essence, a punt replaces the kickoffs."

My initial reaction to this proposal was negative. Mainly because it's such a radical change. But upon further reflection, it might be worth trying for a year. Perhaps it wouldn't seem so radical after it's been in place for a while and adding another decision might add some intrigue. And if it it helped cut down on injuries, all the better.

I knew Goodell wanted to get rid of kickoffs, but had not heard details about what he wanted to replace it with. Someone was thinking outside the box on the 4th and 15 on their 30 idea.

What I like about the idea is it still leaves the idea of onside kicks open... you know, running some kind of ball recovery play out of a punt formation, or running fake punts. Or they could just line up for a normal offensive play. I like that because it still gives teams that are behind on the scoreboard an opportunity to turn the game around.

What I don't like about it is creates opportunites for runaway games, or could make a game so unfair it would not be worth watching. It would be too easy for some teams to get the 15 yards for a first down against some teams with less than average defenses, especially weak pass defenses. They could put some conditions on going for the first down instead of punting, like:
- If attempting the first down from any formation, the offensive team would have to be trailing on the scoreboard.
The problem with that is some really good teams do get jumped on, get behind against weaker teams, and they could take advantage of the new rule. That would not be fun to watch, and the first time it happened there would be a lot of grumbling fans. It would be like giving a team with a QB like Brady EXTRA chances. Nothing against Brady, but that just does not sit right with me.

Don't shoot me in the head, but another idea might be to handicap teams or QBs and defeneses to allow a team who just scored to go for a first down. Examples:
- Any team with a QB who has a QB rating above some number will not be allowed to go for a first down if the other team's defense is ranked less than some number (say 20th) in the league.
OR
- If a team wants to go for the first down, they have to use their 2nd or 3rd string QB, or one QB lower on the depth chart than the starting QB in that game (say if the normal starter was out with injury).

Anyway, it is my day off and have the extra time to think up nutty ideas. If you like any of those ideas, tell Goodell I am available for hire . (I know... don't wait for any calls). But it is a good thing the league is thinking about these kind of changes and that they are thinking outside the box. I have confidence they will not do something terribly foolhardy.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

That is one thing I like about the NFL. They are not afraid of changing the rules if it makes the game better. Both safer, more fair, and more entertaining. I think that's a big problem with MLB (and an even bigger problem with FIFA). Those sports and leagues get so caught up in tradition, their brains atrophy when it comes to making improvements to their sport. As if rules set years ago are sacred, etched in stone and to even test something else is blasphemous.

Goodell is on the cover of Time magazine this week, talking about NFL and making the sport safer.

For all the upsets, for all the "any given Sunday" talk from this season, if the season ended today, all but two of the same teams that went to the playoffs last year, would go this year. ALL of the same division winners as well. NE, Hou, Balt, Den, NYG, GB, SF, Atl. all are in first place now. One could even speculate that if both teams are "on" come playoff time, we'll see a rematch of last year's SB (in which I may go skiing that day).

 

[Amsterhammer]

That is one thing I like about the NFL. They are not afraid of changing the rules if it makes the game better. Both safer, more fair, and more entertaining. I think that's a big problem with MLB (and an even bigger problem with FIFA). Those sports and leagues get so caught up in tradition, their brains atrophy when it comes to making improvements to their sport. As if rules set years ago are sacred, etched in stone and to even test something else is blasphemous.

Your final sentence is exactly how I feel about the Constitution! But I digress...

You are SO right about FIFA. Blatant sporting injustices are shrugged off with a "it's part of the charm of the game that referees can make mistakes". I don't know a single fan who is prepared to stand up and say that FIFA is right to defend tradition despite how the game has changed since the rules were written.

As for this doing away with the kick off business - I understand that it's being considered as a way to reduce injuries. I am not aware of any stats about how many or what kind of injuries can directly be attributed to the kick off return collisions at speed. I'm certainly no traditionalist, but I'm not (yet) convinced that this is a 'good thing', mainly because the options I have heard being mentioned (4th and 15) would introduce a whole new set of artificially created elements to the game, and I think that's going a bit far.

However, I have an open mind on this and am open to persuasion.

 

[Merckx index]

Not taking anything away from RG’s sensational season, but…Of the five rookie QBs, only Luck does not have a RB on pace for a 1000 yd season, or close. That is a huge advantage. It means, e.g., that Washington can throw the ball when they think they will have the most success in completing it, whereas Indy has to throw almost all the time, so the defense can prepare for it. I think that goes a long way to accounting for Luck’s picks.

% of Offense from Passing:

Indy 72.8
Seattle 57.0
Washington 56.4

Indy’s % is one of the highest in the NFL, up there with Denver, NO, and Atlanta, offenses run by great if not elite QBs (and in case no one noticed, Brees has thrown as many picks as Luck, and Ryan almost as many). Seattle and Washington are among the lowest, down there with SF. Alex Smith, before he was replaced, had one of the best QB ratings in the NFL, and consistently throws among the least interceptions, but no one regards him as an elite QB. Why? Because when you have a strong running game, you can throw the ball against a looser defense. The team can pick and choose when and where it throws, rather than being forced to throw, and often long. Moreover, since Griffin and Wilson have a greater YPA than Luck, the % based on passing yards actually underestimates the difference. Luck has actually thrown the ball more than 50% more times than either Griffin or Wilson.

Another point is that sacks and interceptions are somewhat interchangeable. A team can reduce sacks by encouraging the QB to get rid of the ball when under pressure, but that will increase the likelihood of a pick. And conversely, if the QB eats the ball, he will get sacked more but avoid throwing in situations where picks are more likely.

Luck has been sacked 28 times this year, but that is in 531 chances (pass attempts + sacks), or 4.7%. Griffin has been sacked 25 times (for essentially the same number of total yards) in just 350 chances, or 7.14%. So Griffin’s superior interception numbers are partly the result of taking more sacks. If he had as many passing plays as Luck, he would at that rate have 13 more sacks for a loss of 86 yards. Likewise, Wilson has been sacked on 6.76% of passing plays. A sack is not usually considered as bad as an interception, but it can be like a turnover, because it forces a team into a second or third and long situation. Not only do they have to punt, but they have to do so from deeper in their territory than if they hadn’t been sacked.

Btw, this is why Manning would probably get my vote for MVP. He carries the Bronco offense the way Luck carries the Indy offense, but still puts up one of the highest passer ratings in the NFL. He also has one of the lowest sack rates in the NFL, lower than Luck’s. Of course he is surrounded by better players than Luck is, but like Luck, he has had to learn to adapt to new teammates. Remarkable what he has accomplished under the circumstances, IMO.

But he will have much to prove in the postseason. It isn't just cold weather. The weather was fine in the SB vs. NO, or in the Indy dome against Pittsburgh a few years before that. Or in those playoff losses to SD and Norv Turner (how can any team lose to Turner in the postseason?) Manning might go down as the greatest QB in history, but he will never make anyone's list of the top clutch players.

I'd probably still have to give ROY to Griffin, because in addition to his passing, he is like a second RB. I believe he is second in the NFL among rookie rushers, behind the phenomenal Doug Martin (how did everyone miss him and focus on Kellen Moore?). But Luck must be doing something right to take a team that many thought would not much improve over last year's 2-14 to a likely playoff spot. Suppose Manning were still playing for Indy, with the rest of the team the same. How much better than 8-4 would they be? Not much, I'd have to say.

And their schedule has not been that soft. They played the NFC North, one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, and went 3-1 against them. They played NE, and still have to play Houston twice. That is five games against teams that are virtual locks to make the playoffs, teams which in fact are legitimate SB contenders. They've done it the right way--winning almost all of their games against weaker opponents (if you think that's easy, ask the Giants and 49ers), and picking off some of the tougher ones.

My two cents on the proposed 4th and 15 rule, which I had not heard of. I think it would be easier to make a first down on 4th and 15 (overall odds maybe 1/5?) than getting the ball back on an onsides kick, so the rule would benefit a team that needed two scores late to win a game. Comebacks would be a little easier. But I assume in any other situation a team would punt. I really don't think a team would use it to try to run up the score. Even a great team against a weak team faces poor odds on 4th and 15. If team A is considered superior to team B, it will trust its defense and grind out the win, not go for an early KO which could backfire if they give team B position in their territory.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Another wild day in the NFL. Some quick comments.

While the Redskins said they would conduct a full MRI on RGIII on Monday, he had x-rays and MRI Sunday night according to CBS sports, and all came back negative for any tears, and it appears he merely has a bad knee sprain and may miss no games. Props to Robin (Kirk Cousins) for filling in for Batman when the chips were down.

Seattle's demolishion of Arizona was something. Eight ugly turnovers, every ball bounce going Seattle's way, and a general beating by the Seahawks. 58-zip.

Luck didn't play great overall, but enough when it mattered to pull out another win. The Colts are now 9-4.

The Giants "Jeckel" side appeared in a dominant win. NO is done. The only question for them is if Sean Payton returns, or if Jerry Jones fires Jason Garrett and cuts a huge check to Sean next year.

On the flip to that, Atlanta looked like the posers critics (like, yours truely) say they are. They play NYG next week. Either this loss to Carolina will really motivate them to step up, or (more likely) they'll both roll over, and as usual NY will show up for a big game and win easily.

Gritty win for the Cowboys. They are so used to losing these games, to get a win like this was big.

A week after I call the Steelers the best coached team in the NFL they lay a total egg. Big Ben should not have played, and Ike Taylor out was deadly.

GB and their fill in players improve every week. IF Matthews, Woodson and the others I listed above can come back, and stay healthy... I like the way the Packers are also flying under the radar, similar to Denver and Indy.

Solid win for Kaepernick and the 49ers. Next week they get NE and well see how the kid rises to the big game. Of course we may find out how good NE (and/or) Houston really are tomorrow.

Anyone else have RedZone or NFL Rewind? I'm hooked on the condensed games (every play in a game about 30 mins), and being able to see "coaches" films is great for analyzing plays. FastForward and Rewind not so great, and doesn't mirror to Apple TV (yet) are the drawbacks. But for serious football junkies like moi...

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Another wild day in the NFL. Some quick comments.

While the Redskins said they would conduct a full MRI on RGIII on Monday, he had x-rays and MRI Sunday night according to CBS sports, and all came back negative for any tears, and it appears he merely has a bad knee sprain and may miss no games.

Seattle's demolishion of Arizona was ... 58-zip.

Gritty win for the Cowboys. They are so used to losing these games, to get a win like this was big.

Anyone else have RedZone or NFL Rewind?

Nope to RedZone & Rewind. Are these paid subscription or freebees? I'm in if free.

Great win by Skins. But since Ray Lewis absense started, Raves have been mediocre at times, even with that good record. So no surprise to me Skins won, but it was a surprise how they won... with Robin (Cousins) as you said.

Seattle's Wilson did not have to repeat last week's performance. The whole rest of the team did. Special teams TD, defense pick-6, Lynch (128) and Turbin (108) both over 100 yards rushing, 493 yards total for Sea to 154 for Ari... a total... beatdown.

Cowboys showed some resolve today. It looked like they finally learned how to win, & how to finish. This is a win in Cincy against a good, solid Bengals team... not a win against a struggling team like Arizona. This could be a turning point for them if they remember from here on how to win. Too bad it took a terrible tragedy to inspire that performance.

Rex Ryan wisely took the game out of the hands of Sanchez and put it in the hands of the OL and RBs... 19 passes (mostly short) to 43 rushes (hey didle didle, Powell & Greene up the middle) for 166 yards rushing. That, plus Jax, is just what the doctor ordered.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Wow what a thumping by the Pats. If the season ended today... But it doesn't end today. New England has a history of being great in December. Two years ago they demolished the Jets in December on way to a 14-2 season, only to lose to the same Jets, at home in the playoffs. So, let's see what the playoffs bring. But on this night, sheer precision.

Agree with the ESPN guys. Brady for MVP.

Houston has a chance to bounce back, but right now look like Atlanta of the AFC. Take that for what you may.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

And Brady is only 35! He could be doing this another 5 years or more. Then OFC Peyton too, who has brought Denver maybe further than initially expected compared to where we initially thought the Pats would be.

Some really big games this week #15. Maybe more on that later.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

If you're curious about the state of testing for HGH in the NFL, here's a link that explains: LINK

This is an area where the NFLPA provides too much protection for players (maybe that's a bad way of saying it) or is not interested enough in doing the right thing.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

The NFL seems to be in a position of having a system that merely controls the amount of doping to keep it from being excessive so no one falls over dead, or is so jacked up they maim each other. I love the NFL, but really they don't do nearly enough. About the best you could say is that it's likely there are several clean players able to compete, depending on the position. And this of course doesn't include what the team trainers and doctors legally give players. Toradol for example is probably given to a third of the players in the NFL, and it basically replaces cortisone, which may still be allowed anyway. Not a whole lot has changed since North Dallas Forty in some ways. It's just a more refined system. Even with the Toradol, it's as if they saying it's a non-narcotic, NSAID, but it's a very strong drug used in ER's, and for the NFL it's basically controlled and administered by teams so they don't end up with another Kenny Easley.

Twenty years ago Bill Walsh wanted teams to have college sized rosters, with one reason to help players heal from injuries naturally instead of constantly trying to shuffle players, or have them play hurt. He may have been on to something.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Thanks to Alpe, 3man and Merckx for the as ever enlightening input! I was more than pleased to end up on 11-5 in view of some of the very strange results last week - like the Bolts winning and Atlanta and Chicago losing.

RG3, thank God, will be playing!

CIN @ PHI - The Eagles might steal another one but I'm not picking them

NYG @ ATL - Hoping the Falcons can do us a big favor!
DEN @ BAL - Tough call, Ravens need this one more
GB @ CHI - Bears collapse to continue
WAS @ CLE - RG3 plays, Skins roll on!
IND @ HOU - Texans need to recover from their Foxboro embarrassment
JAC @ MIA - Fins too good for Jags at home
TB @ NO - Saints should edge this at home
MIN @ STL - Very tricky, home team edge
DET @ ARI - A lock, surely?
SEA @ BUF - Another lock, surely?
CAR @ SD - Can Bolts shock the world and win two in a row?
PIT @ DAL - Head says Cowgirls, heart wants them to lose
KC @ OAK - Yes, I'm picking the Raiders
SF @ NE - Foxboro in December = only one winner

NYJ @ TEN - Another MNF game nobody's waiting for