National Football League

[ChrisE]

Wow what a thumping by the Pats. If the season ended today... But it doesn't end today. New England has a history of being great in December. Two years ago they demolished the Jets in December on way to a 14-2 season, only to lose to the same Jets, at home in the playoffs. So, let's see what the playoffs bring. But on this night, sheer precision.

Agree with the ESPN guys. Brady for MVP.

Houston has a chance to bounce back, but right now look like Atlanta of the AFC. Take that for what you may.

Houston has big problems that have been exposed. The last 4 or 5 games have shown their weaknesses if anybody was paying attention.

The D backfield is a sieve, there is hardly any pass rush. Teams have figured out if they stop Watt, it is a field day. Any team with a decent passing game will exploit that defense. Joseph still is not well IMO. Losing Cushing was a very big blow, and Barwin is worthless. Doubt he gets resigned next year unless he gets a big pay cut. The guru Wade Phillips has had the curtain opened on him.

Schaub has played in 5 prime time games this year, and they are the 5 worse performances of the year for him. No rating over 80 in any of those games. He is a choker.

Kubiak plays not to lose, and is no motivator. It is a total embarrassment to not only get whacked once on prime time this year, but twice. Inexcusable.

They very easily could have lost to Jax, Det, and they held on with Denver and looked like **** against Chicago. They could easily be 9-4 or 8-5 right now. I would take Atl over Houston because Ryan, White, and Jones would have a field day.

So, add up conservative non-motivating coach, beaten up defense with poor coverage, and a QB that doesn't show up for big games and it does not equal superbowl, even if they get home field throughout.

Would anybody with any brains pick Houston over either Denver or NE, no matter where they played in the playoffs?

Texans are getting raped on Houston sports talk all week.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Good post Chris. Losing Cushing was obviously a big blow. ESPN was showing stats since he got hurt and it showed what a big loss he was. Agree Kubiak is too conservative. Sean Payton he's not.

I like Nick Foles, maybe for Philly's future, and think tonight may be close. But I'm going with Cincy. Other picks hopefully later tonight.

 

[ChrisE]

Good post Chris. Losing Cushing was obviously a big blow. ESPN was showing stats since he got hurt and it showed what a big loss he was. Agree Kubiak is too conservative. Sean Payton he's not.

I like Nick Foles, maybe for Philly's future, and think tonight may be close. But I'm going with Cincy. Other picks hopefully later tonight.

Nah, Foles will fold. He is not the one. Philly has major problems. I wonder if Gruden can be talked out of the box to coach them next year, though that would surely **** ESPN off big time after their recent changes for his benefit.

I will take Philly tonight.

It is unfortunate the Texans are good enough to let Kubiak keep his job. A team with that talent getting whacked like that is all on the coach. Plus, McNair is a wingnut with the good old boy network in place and Kubiak is his boy, and the group is rounded out with hometown boy of the simple legend for DC. They've got a template on "what type of players they want there", wink wink. Funny that Smith is there, the token one. The shield. He is doing a good job though obviously. He laps it up in that suite with Mcnair.

They just gave Schaub $62 million for 5 years. He aint going anywhere. The rubes in Houston gotta believe. You know there is a church just about on every corner down here, don't you?

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

RG3, thank God, will be playing!

Just heard a few moments ago on NFL Radio with John Madden that RG3 playing will be a game day decision. One can hope RG3 can go! Below is why I say HOPE... my final NFC East Projections (based on a healthy enough RG3):

NFC EAST FINAL PROJECTIONS
Team (Current record) Current Divisional record
Giants (8-5) Div 2-3
NYG at ATL
NYG at BAL .............. BAL is reeling
NYG vs PHI (div) ...... Foles may help reeling PHI, but not enough
Final Overall & Divisional Records: 10-6, Div 3-3

Redskins (7-6) Div 3-1
WAS at CLE ............. this will not be easy at CLE
WAS at PHI (div)
WAS vs DAL (div)
Final Overall & Divisional Records: 10-6, Div 5-1

Cowboys (7-6) Div 3-2
DAL vs PIT
DAL vs NO
DAL at WAS (div)
Final Overall & Divisional Records: 9-7, Div 3-3

Dallas will be out of it. But I figure the Giants and Skins will end up with the same overall record, but (with RG3 playing) the Skins should be division champs by virtue of their better division record compared to the Giants. Skins do need to win out though. They can do it.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Houston has big problems that have been exposed. The last 4 or 5 games have shown their weaknesses if anybody was paying attention.

The D backfield is a sieve, there is hardly any pass rush. Teams have figured out if they stop Watt, it is a field day. Any team with a decent passing game will exploit that defense. Joseph still is not well IMO. Losing Cushing was a very big blow, and Barwin is worthless. Doubt he gets resigned next year unless he gets a big pay cut. The guru Wade Phillips has had the curtain opened on him.

Schaub has played in 5 prime time games this year, and they are the 5 worse performances of the year for him. No rating over 80 in any of those games. He is a choker.

Kubiak plays not to lose, and is no motivator. It is a total embarrassment to not only get whacked once on prime time this year, but twice. Inexcusable.

They very easily could have lost to Jax, Det, and they held on with Denver and looked like **** against Chicago. They could easily be 9-4 or 8-5 right now. I would take Atl over Houston because Ryan, White, and Jones would have a field day.

So, add up conservative non-motivating coach, beaten up defense with poor coverage, and a QB that doesn't show up for big games and it does not equal superbowl, even if they get home field throughout.

Would anybody with any brains pick Houston over either Denver or NE, no matter where they played in the playoffs?

Texans are getting raped on Houston sports talk all week.

Agree with that. Apparently so does John Madden. Few moments ago on NFL Radio, Madden was saying behind the elite QBs of the NFL (e.g. P Manning & Brady) that the 4 QBs in the on-deck circle (so to speak, meaning they are not quite elite yet) are 1) Matt Ryan, 2) Joe Flacco 3) Matt Schaub, and 4) ... I forgot who they said 4 was... I think Rogers, but that is beside the point here. The reason Madden named those 4 was their inability to bring their team back from behind when down by 2 or more scores. Houston's defensive inability to stop great teams also makes it tough on Schaub and the Houston offense to come back. Houston's D needs more stops (prevent scores).

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Madden is right. This is also why Alex Smith got benched in SF. Aaron Rodgers has the tools to come back like that, but statistically he hasn't often. He has about a third the 4th quarter comebacks that Eli Manning does for example, and I still don't put Eli in the same category as Brady, PM, or Brees.

When I last talked to Brock, his inside line was that Gruden wasn't going to come back to the NFL for a while, maybe ever. Tony Dungee was completely retired. But Bill Cowher was quietly in the wings waiting for the right team to pick up. There were rumors of him at San Diego last year if Jeff Fisher didn't end up there. But now that Norv has to be fired, he could go there, or maybe Philadelphia next year? We'll see. Imagine Ken Wisenhunt being fired in AZ, and both he and Cowher ending up together again...

Foles threw some nice passes, but he did somewhat fold. Actually, the Eagles just stink. Terrible on defense, just terrible. Foles has the size and pocket passer style to make it in the NFL. He was a beast in the Pac-12 on an average Arizona team, but in the NFL he needs to be quicker on decisions, and learn to move in the pocket to keep plays alive. The fact he's 6'6" and 245 means he could make that happen, similar to how Big Ben plays, but we'll see.

If I were a betting man, I'd say RGIII will start this Sunday. I think this is a risky game though. People look at the Browns and think of them as one of the weak teams in the NFL. But they are playing much better of late, winning 3 of 4 and 4 of 6. Richardson has been uneven, but the team has learned to use him more effectively, Weeden isn't making nearly as many mistakes as he did early in the season, and the once porous defense has stepped up.

I like your predictions on the NFC East, on3m@an@rmy (why not 1ManArmy? It's certainly easier to type!). The thing is, whoever loses this weekend is going to be on the outside looking in. I happen to think though that all three teams will win. Something in my gut tells me the Giants will have an easier time beating the Falcons than they will the struggling Ravens. The final in Washington vs, Dallas could be the decider.

 

[Potomac]

Now the NFL is thinking expanding the playoffs. That's a big mistake in my opinion because I think there's already too many teams in the playoffs as it is.


Meanwhile I'm not convinced RG III will be starting Sunday against the Browns. Vegas oddsmakers don't have a line, and the only thing for sure coming out of Redskins Park is that they will keep the Browns guessing.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Some excellent games this week. If you were ever to get NFL Rewind or Red Zone (no, not free, sorry, but not expensive) this is the week.

NYG @ ATL - Giants play up for big games, Falcons overrated. But they could be extra motivated here, having been repeatedly beaten by the Giants. I still pick NY.
DEN @ BAL - Denver keeps winning, Baltimore in trouble. Lewis may suit up, but not likely play. Suggs to suit up, and probably play (though still hurt). Broncos defense enough to slow Ravens, and passing offense enough to light up Ravens depleted secondary.
GB @ CHI - Packers win, even if Matthews and Woodson don't play. They are gelling, and the Bears too hurt and on a slide.
WAS @ CLE - If RG3 plays and can play 100%. Otherwise, Browns. This is a very risky game. Browns not the same team in the first half of the season. They could actually be good next year.
IND @ HOU - After being blown out by GB, Houston bounced back and whipped Baltimore. After being blown out by NE... Plus, Indy not good on the road, and has squeaked by some wins.
JAC @ MIA - Home team, Jax in trouble.
TB @ NO - Both teams with problems, but Saints at home, barely. Their defense against the pass is awful, but Freeman a mistake prone QB. So who knows?
MIN @ STL - Went with home team, but this could go either way. StL may have enough D to slow Peterson, and Ponder can't win the game.
DET @ ARI - Lions have lost too many close games, not here. Their mistake prone defense won't be an issue against Cards anemic offense.
SEA @ BUF - Seattle iffy on road, but Buffalo the weaker team, no doubt. I don't see Buffalo putting up many points against this defense. This is going to be a test for Wilson though, especially if the game is close late. The weather calls for it to be wet and windy. Lynch may rush for 150 yards.
CAR @ SD - Went with home team, but Chargers capable of losing any game. They have more good players, but that means nothing.
PIT @ DAL - Dallas too unpredictable, but at home. Steelers still too banged up, inconsistent. It's an issue of which team shows up? Steelers better coached, but Cowboys more healthy, more tools.
KC @ OAK - Both teams have so many problems. Went with the Raiders at home, as I don't see the Chiefs scoring much.
SF @ NE - Game of the week? Brady MVP, Kaep back to earth. If this is a double digit win, look for a lot of talk about Alex Smith unless Kaep plays very well. Out of all the ESPN NFL experts, only Wickersham picks SF. But he's also the guy with the best overall record. SF front four MUST put pressure on Brady, or 49ers give up 30+ points.
NYJ @ TEN - Jets have eeked out some wins of late, but Titans have an equal amount of problems.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Hi...

Was in Africa almost two months. Was great sometimes (you guys know ), OTOH i just survived. So happy to be back in the 1st world.

So what? Only 10 pages since my last post. You guys got lazy

Nothing changed: I stand by my SB-Pick HOU-SF (only because NE is jinxed in the playoffs since the cheating scandal happened in 2007. You guys know, i think the NFL don´t let it happen for the Pats to prevail at least once more. Even tough i love their passing ways. That´s my style. Explosive offenses, big leads, and then running down the clock.)

Alpe you won (Luck isn´t a bust). But i won too. What the hell is going on? RG3 the super human. I can´t remember any player like him. Maybe Bo Jackson, Carl Lewis, Babe Ruth. This young man is awesome beyond all i expected...
I knew he is great when i saw only 15 mins of him throwing darts in the Saints game in week one, when even Brees looked like a school boy compared to him.
But i didn´t expect him to shatter the (effieciency) rookie records of Marino and McMahon. I am stunned...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

The true Power-Rankings by Advanced Stats (i can´t praise them enough, even tough Y/PP, like i do, would be enough )
No need to mention they picked CAR by a good margin over ATL last week, but i do it anyway.

1 DEN
2 SF
3 CAR
4 SEA
5 HOU
6 NE
7 NYG
8 ATL
9 WAS
10 GB
11 CIN
12 DET
13 STL
14 CHI
15 PIT
16 DAL
17 TB
18 MIA
19 NYJ
20 NO
21 BAL
22 BUF
23 CLE
24 SD
25 IND
26 MIN
27 TEN
28 PHI
29 OAK
30 KC
31 ARI
32 JAC

Also not to mention, they called for ATL to bust (as they did) in the playoffs early in 2010 and 2011. And i have to admit, they had the NYG on 4th last year (before the playoffs). Chapeau! As i said, can´t praise them enough...

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

When I last talked to Brock, his inside line was that Gruden wasn't going to come back to the NFL for a while, maybe ever. Tony Dungee was completely retired. But Bill Cowher was quietly in the wings waiting for the right team to pick up. There were rumors of him at San Diego last year if Jeff Fisher didn't end up there. But now that Norv has to be fired, he could go there, or maybe Philadelphia next year? We'll see. Imagine Ken Wisenhunt being fired in AZ, and both he and Cowher ending up together again...

Foles threw some nice passes, but he did somewhat fold. Actually, the Eagles just stink...

I like your predictions on the NFC East, on3m@an@rmy (why not 1ManArmy? It's certainly easier to type!)...

Always nice to hear a vets take. Thanks for that. On Gruden... I actually like him in the booth and would miss him. He seems to be enjoying broadcasting, so why not stay put? Certainly a lot less stressful.

U got that right about the Eagles. Don't think I've witnessed a team self destruct like that. Ever. Foles could be their QB of the future though.

My handle? It was Call-Of-Duty inspired, which I used to play a lot, but not much anymore. My job in real life involves computers and I have more username/passwords than you can shake a stick at. So when I was signing up to this forum I just thought of something that would be easy to remember and in my head I could hear "I'm a blank blank blank" going through my head from the COD play. But 3man works, as Amster often uses. I don't mind.

Now the NFL is thinking expanding the playoffs. That's a big mistake in my opinion because I think there's already too many teams in the playoffs as it is.

I don't think there are too many in playoffs as is, but I definately agree we don't need more playoff games.

I've heard about the league expanding the number of teams as well. I'm not in favor of more teams because I think it would dilute the talent across the league and teams would not be as good. You'd still have some great teams, but most teams would be hurt and the level of play would deteriorate. I think the biggest hit if the league expanded the number of teams would be depth. The kind of depth that allows a team to plug in a second or third guy without losing too much in performance. Weakening the depth would require teams to stay healthy, and in this day that's just not going to happen often.

So what? Only 10 pages since my last post. You guys got lazy

Alpe you won (Luck isn´t a bust). But i won too. What the hell is going on? ...

Better to be lazy than kissin camels!

Hey, you all lost! 2 words. Russell Wilson. But you are in good company since even Madden said "Nobody saw that (Wilson) coming".

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Better to be lazy than kissin camels!

There was no camels (i smoked cigaretts called "sportsman" LOL).

BTW, I wasn´t in the north of africa, where camels are famous.

Hey, you all lost! 2 words. Russell Wilson. But you are in good company since even Madden said "Nobody saw that (Wilson) coming".

That´s true. Even Wilson is up there in posting amazing rookie effieciency numbers. OTOH, nobody is close to RG3...

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

The true Power-Rankings by Advanced Stats (i can´t praise them enough, even tough Y/PP, like i do, would be enough )
No need to mention they picked CAR by a good margin over ATL last week, but i do it anyway.

1 DEN
2 SF
3 CAR
4 SEA
5 HOU
6 NE
7 NYG
8 ATL
9 WAS
10 GB ...

Oooh! I'm turnin into a rappah! Seattle ahead of that bunch? Like HOU, NE, ATL (well ok, maybe NY, WAS, & GB). That's quite a surprise, while I like it, because Seattle has NOT proven themselves to be consistent on the road yet. But I like!

Carolina #3? Are you being sarcastic? What dope are they on? "Playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs! You kiddin me? Playoffs?"

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

There was no camels (i smoked cigaretts called "sportsman" LOL).

BTW, I wasn´t in the north of africa, where camels are famous.

Ok, I give. I lost that last one about the kissin camels.

But don't tell me you do cancer sticks? A cyclist? Well, would not be the first time I saw someone riding while puffing at the same time.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

It´s not my numbers. It´s those of Advanced Stats.
But they are more right than wrong. CAR is pretty good in Y/PP, but not at play-calling. Not that i watched the games, i wasn´t there, had better things to do, but i heared they lost all the close games thanks to moronic and timid play calling in the 4th Qtr.! Add in bad luck (remember that plays a big part in NFL games) and there you have teams under or overperforming relative to their talent.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

You gotta point there.

BTW: welcome back & nice chatting with ya.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Ok, I give. I lost that last one about the kissin camels.

But don't tell me you do cancer sticks? A cyclist? Well, would not be the first time I saw someone riding while puffing at the same time.

So i have more in common with Cipollini and Alex Higgins... Anyway everybody has its weaknesses. I am not proud of it.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

You gotta point there.

BTW: welcome back & nice chatting with ya.

Thank you. Will be intersting playoffs. I will be there in full mood. After that i´ve got to go back to the beach.
BTW, my daily food was this :

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

My picks:

NY Giants at Atlanta: NYG, but not b/c of Eli, but the talent around him...
Minnesota at St. Louis: SL, running means nothing, passing efficiency everything (not that SL is any good there, but MIN is simply terrible)
Jacksonville at Miami: obvious pick (they fail most of time )
Green Bay at Chicago: I pick GB since CHI is really bad at Pass-Efficieny (as expected by me after all the Martz haters got their wish; an even worse offense)
Washington at Cleveland; obvious, but only if RG3 survived the cheap shot
Denver at Baltimore; natural pick
Indianapolis at Houston ; no doubt
Tampa Bay at New Orleans; another road tipp, hope i don´t have to pick more...
Detroit at Arizona; OMG, another road pick
Carolina at San Diego; and just another one
Seattle at Buffalo; and yet another one, is there no quality home team this week?
Pittsburgh at Dallas; here we go
Kansas City at Oakland; KC drafted QB´s havn´t won a start in 25 years!
San Francisco at New England; NE b/c of Beli-Cheat. He´s the only HC whose teams outperform their talent. He´s the (RS-)master
NY Jets at Tennesse Homefield-Advantage

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Hey, you all lost! 2 words. Russell Wilson. But you are in good company since even Madden said "Nobody saw that (Wilson) coming".

Uh, you must have forgotten that the first and maybe only person to see him was none other than Gruden. He was impressed with him at the Gruden rookie camp, and on draft day when asked about the plethora of talented QB's and the focus on Luck and RGIII (and Tannehill and Weeden), Gruden's exact words were "I like Russell Wilson." Gruden may be a little goofy at times, but he really knows the game and has a crystal ball when it comes to talent.

Speaking of, I can't embed or save it, but watch this little clip on Wilson's Unexpected Journey.Very amusing, and I fear Russell may end up with a new nickname!

Welcome back Foxxy. Let's see, Carolina at 4-9 ranks 3rd, while Indy and their bust QB at 9-4 ranks 23rd. But hey, Carolina has a better YPP! Riiight. Anyone want to make a bet as to who is going to actually win more games this season? And since I'm poking fun at you, what do you think about Michael Vick bouncing back with all that talent he has? Sorry, you've been gone so long, I had to slap you on the back right while you were sipping your grog.

Agree with most of your picks though! If you've read a few of my posts I too was one of the first to see through Atlanta, and I also see the Giants as a real threat, though not because of Eli. They have great receivers, excellent pass protection, and can defend the pass fairly well. That's a good recipe in this league for winning big games. I don't know about SF though. Well see, and we'll know more this weekend. And I don't see Houston getting to the big game. Two bad blowout losses to key teams, and the loss of Cushing was huge. I'll still be surprised though if Denver is the team from the AFC. Something just doesn't seem right to me about them winning big games. Or playoff games. I still like NE in the AFC, and if the Steelers can magically heal in two weeks. I like NYG, SF or even GB in the NFC if they can get healthy. Seattle looks dangerous. Would not want to play them.

Excellent analysis on NFC/AFC Playbook on the NFL channel of SF vs. NE. They talked about some of the positives and negatives of Kaep, and what SF's pass rush and LB's need to do to not get sliced and diced by Brady. Also that NE's key is going to not just be Brady, but in their linebackers who are stepping up to stop the run, and pass cover well of late. This is the game where we'll know if pulling Smith for Kaep was a good idea, or not.

Interesting take on the conspiracy (for lack of a better term) against the Belicheck Pats, that some way, some how, they won't win another SB. I've felt for some time that the Raiders would never win another SB with Al Davis as owner. They "cheated" to win too many games in the 70's, and Davis rubbing the law in the league's face in the 80's moving the team to LA and back irked too many people. This is also why Ray Guy, Stabler, Branch, Plunket and a few other Raiders aren't in the HOF. I always wondered if the Tuck Play game was revenge for the Ben Dreith Game. Call it karma, or a fix, I still believe it happened for a reason. It would be interesting to examine the Pats playoff losses over the last several years. Some of them were surprising, to say the least.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Welcome back Foxxy. Let's see, Carolina at 4-9 ranks 3rd, while Indy and their bust QB at 9-4 ranks 23rd. But hey, Carolina has a better YPP! Riiight. Anyone want to make a bet as to who is going to actually win more games this season? And since I'm poking fun at you, what do you think about Michael Vick bouncing back with all that talent he has? Sorry, you've been gone so long, I had to slap you on the back right while you were sipping your grog.

Agree with most of your picks though! If you've read a few of my posts I too was one of the first to see through Atlanta, and I also see the Giants as a real threat, though not because of Eli. They have great receivers, excellent pass protection, and can defend the pass fairly well. That's a good recipe in this league for winning big games. I don't know about SF though. Well see, and we'll know more this weekend. And I don't see Houston getting to the big game. Two bad blowout losses to key teams, and the loss of Cushing was huge. I'll still be surprised though if Denver is the team from the AFC. Something just doesn't seem right to me about them winning big games. Or playoff games. I still like NE in the AFC, and if the Steelers can magically heal in two weeks. I like NYG, SF or even GB in the NFC if they can get healthy. Seattle looks dangerous. Would not want to play them.

Interesting take on the conspiracy (for lack of a better term) against the Belicheck Pats, that some way, some how, they won't win another SB. I've felt for some time that the Raiders would never win another SB with Al Davis as owner. They "cheated" to win too many games in the 70's, and Davis rubbing the law in the league's face in the 80's moving the team to LA and back irked too many people. This is also why Ray Guy, Stabler, Branch, Plunket and a few other Raiders aren't in the HOF. I always wondered if the Tuck Play game was revenge for the Ben Dreith Game. Call it karma, or a fix, I still believe it happened for a reason. It would be interesting to examine the Pats playoff losses over the last several years. Some of them were surprising, to say the least.

Here is a good article about CAR:
http://www.footballperspective.com/...ll-parcells-could-be-lured-out-of-retirement/

So if Gruden ever want to comeback, this team is ripe for Success (regression to the mean). This team is where he should go. He could take all the pride for the very possible turnaround of this team next year. Even tough i think Kelly would be the better choice. He´d have the players and QB for his attacking style. It would be fun to watch, while Gruden (when around the last time) was the only stubborn coach who didn´t use the Shotgun...

Luck is like Tebow: A Comeback kid. That doesn´t translate into possible future success as we know. Even Skelton had a high number of comebacks (relative to his pro starts). I still don´t buy into the Luck-Story, only that he plays to his name.
But you are right, he certainly isn´t a bust.
I wasn´t around, but didn´t Vick got injured? And didn´t i say Foles won´t have better numbers?
Here are the effieciency lines;
Vick 5,9 Y/PP, 79 Rate (3-6 in starts)
Foles 5,4 Y/PP, 78 Rate (1-4 in starts)
You are right that Vick didn´t comeback. Your point. But the world is grey, not black or white: I said Foles would make no difference since the called plays are the same, the players around are, the coach is. And as you see nothing changed for the better as i predicted.
The QB is only as good as the talent around him, even though he´s the biggest impact of all players on a team (contrary to overpaid RB´s). We can see that in WAS. When a QB is above everybody else he can turn a team around (same happened in DEN, even though i hate to admit it), a RB like AP, Sanders or Bo Jackson can´t/couldn´t, never will.

Same here: I don´t see DEN going far in the playoffs. And it all has to do with Peyton being Nervous-Playoff-Peyton. He´ll have one of his massive meltdowns in a playoff shutout or something. NE is not allowed*, that leaves me with my old pick: HOU is going to the SB.
GB i can´t see going far. All their mega pass effieciency of the past two years is gone. I think the league figured "Rodgers & gang" out after the NYG showed them how to do it.
NYG luck will even out (hopefully), so that leaves SF as logical SB-Pick.Very effiecient balanced offense. It seems it doesn´t matter who plays QB there. Maybe even Dilf Dilfer could win his 2nd SB with such a team.
The Defense (especially pass) is the cream of the NFL. If no turnover misfortune (like last year) in the playoffs, they go to the SB.

*Yep, just look at the loss to NYJ two years ago. Master Belicheat played a obscure slow game in the 4th when two scores down. Belicheat wouldn´t do that. He´s too good for that. He was hold back. I am convinced.
OAK leads the league in penalties since at least the mid eighties. No one can tell me there isn´t a payback by the league/other owners. It´s just not possible that any NFL team with changing coaches and players completley every 4 years can have the penalty sickness forever. That is impossible by all means.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Uh, you must have forgotten that the first and maybe only person to see him was none other than Gruden. He was impressed with him at the Gruden rookie camp, and on draft day when asked about the plethora of talented QB's and the focus on Luck and RGIII (and Tannehill and Weeden), Gruden's exact words were "I like Russell Wilson." Gruden may be a little goofy at times, but he really knows the game and has a crystal ball when it comes to talent.

No, I did not forget. I saw the Gruden camp showing of Wilson before the draft. At that moment I thought Russell was for real and because of his height would be a steal. But, I just quoted Madden saying "Nobody...". You know Madden, he says stuff like that without being completely accurate (sometimes like me) but gets his point across.

edit 1: cute video of Russell the Hobbit. Had not seen that.
edit 2: interesting take on the cheat squads, karma and all that. I also agree the SF linebackers will be interesting to watch b/c as I said here before they have had problems stuffing the gaps in some games. Will also be interesting to see what kind of game plan Belichick comes up with. Will they try to exploit that? I would, until the 9ers find a way to stop it! And Pats have just the kind of offense to make the LBs nuts freeze.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Here is a good article about CAR:
http://www.footballperspective.com/...ll-parcells-could-be-lured-out-of-retirement/

So if Gruden ever want to comeback, this team is ripe for Success (regression to the mean). This team is where he should go...

That is a good, interesting article on the Panthers. I agree this team does appear ripe for success. But it may take more than just a coach. Maybe Gruden could turn it around there with the personnel the Pathers have. I don't know though. I'm not sure about that. I have to ask why has Carolina lost so may close games. Maybe the personnel is part of the problem. In order for a team to win those close games it often takes someone to will them to win. There are QBs in the league we know have that mentality (e.g. Brady, Manning), but some don't have that mentality (e.g. Romo for the most part of his career). The right coach may be able to turn it around with the talent Carolina has, but any new coach may have to come in and retool the roster. Every player on the field has to have confidence in all the other players around them.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

The so called "clutch players" were examined a lot. While there are players who perform good under pressure, they tend to regress to the mean. In the long run, their play under pressure isn´t better than their normal play. Speak: If Montana or Warner had an effiecient passing game for 58 mins, they had it too in the last 2 mins. OTOH, there are indeed players who "choke" under pressure, even in the long run. But there are very few, since those "chokers" are sorted out well before they reach the top level of pro sports.
I think Peyton Manning is one of the few examples. He is so good, that he made it to the top even tough he often has his worst games under the biggest pressure (speak playoffs).
But Romo certainly isn´t a "choker". People just have the "feeling" he is, because his meltdowns looked really ugly. Things that people do never forget. OTOH look at this stat:
"This is the second year in a row Romo has led four game-winning drives and comebacks, and his total of eight comebacks since 2011 ranks second only to Eli Manning (10) in that time span.
Most 4th Quarter Comeback Wins, 2011-12
Eli Manning 10
Tony Romo 8
Matt Ryan 7
Alex Smith 6
Matthew Stafford 6
Not bad for a supposed choker. But that’s why we have facts."
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.co...-2012-nfl-rookie-qbs-make-more-history/20034/

That brings us to CAR. It´s the coaching/play calling, not the players. There is no reason for me to not think that Cam Newton will lead his team to many wins the next year, if the HC isn´t named Rivera, Crennel or Turner.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Eli fans love that stat. That plus the 2 SB MVPs (on iffy stats). But as I've said before, Eli is not Peyton, and hes not Brady, Brees or Ryan either. If Eli were traded for someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick, or Sam Bradford, each team would likely have the same record. He's not bad, but he's not as great as his wins would indicate.

Carolina is definitely a team for 2014-2016 or so. Washington, Seattle, Indianapolis, probably still Atlanta and SF. Maybe Miami, St. Louis or Cleveland even. But it depends on a few key players, coaches, other intangibles. KC has one of the best teams on paper, and yet...

I do not favor expanding the NFL playoffs. It would do little more than dilute the cream. We would certainly see 7-9 teams in there. It's little more than a gimmick to generate revenue. The NFL could expand teams. That would result in dilution, but not as bad. LA, San Antonio, Portland, London even. Bleacher Report article.

I questioned how good Foles would be too, but while many kept insisting how much talent Vick had and his potential. I scoffed at that and questioned what he had ever done in his NFL career? No one can answer, because it's nothing. He isn't any better than a 3rd round rookie thrown into games mid season.