on3m@n@rmy said:
In this weeks divsional games:
- most likely to lose in the NFC = Baltimore (@ Denver)
- most likely to lose in the AFC = Houston (@ New England)
I will bet you $100,000 that Baltimore does not lose to Denver in the NFC. Please PM me immediately. I am serious.
i expect a major decline in RG3´s efficiency stats nxt season (if he ever comes back)
Indeed. Can’t believe some people in this forum are buying the analysts’ BS that it was the right move to keep a guy who was noticeably limping at the end of the 1st quarter in the game. How can anyone seriously say, “awful to see that happen”, and then in the next breath, “right move to keep him in.” You don’t see the obvious contradiction? Not only was he clearly less effective (4/10 for 16 yards after the 1st quarter; and one reason why Morris’ production went down after that was because when teams don’t fear RG3’s running, they can key on the RB), but more to the point, his reduced mobility made him less able to avoid the major hits that cause major injuries. He was being set up for what eventually happened.
But since these analysts still don’t get it after four thousand lawsuits (and counting), I wouldn’t expect another injury to make any difference to them. And yes, of course former NFL players are going to say, let the guy stay in. In the Clinic, several people have noted an old poll that showed many Olympic athletes would take a drug that killed them in five years if it helped them win a gold medal. It’s basically the same mentality in the NFL. If RG3 had managed to lead the Skins to a SB victory on a gimpy leg, then suffered a career-ending injury late in the 4th quarter, a lot of people who might not admit it out loud would think it was worth it.
Very gutsy picks, Foxxy. I think Houston will make the game far more competitive than their meeting a few weeks ago—and yeah, that writer is the most (in)famous man in Houston now--but still expect NE to win. OTOH, I think the Baltimore-Denver game will turn out pretty much the way it did a few weeks ago. Manning is 2-0 vs. the Ravens in the postseason, he knows that defense pretty well.
The NFC games seem to me far harder to pick. How healthy is Justin Smith? No one knows. He started practice Friday, but he didn't put much pressure on his arm, and even he said he probably wouldn't know how good it is until he actually plays in the game. All I'll say is if he turns out to be capable of playing anywhere near 100%, the Niners should win and suddenly be SB favorites. And even if he isn't, at least GB doesn't have a strong running game. He really shines at stopping the run, though he's also key to the other Smith getting to A-Rod.
I'm sticking with Atlanta, though if someone asks me to justify that decision, I really can't. Atlanta has a better pocket passer and better WRs, but that's about all. Michael Turner used to be one of the better RBs in the NFL, but hasn't done much recently, and has been AWOL in their recent playoff losses. And the Seahawks defense is obviously scary. But the Seahawks aren't the same team on the road they are at home. I'm not convinced the Wash. game proved otherwise. If RG3 had been 100% the whole game, would Seattle have won? Not at all clear. Maintain that two TD early advantage into the second half, and suddenly the Hawks have to change their game plan a little, Wilson has to do more passing than he was asked to do this year.
I wish Oregon had played Bama, too, but I still think Bama would have won, say 50-30. We can get some rough idea from the fact that in the beginning of last year, the Ducks lost to LSU 41-27. That LSU team beat Bama later that year, but didn’t fare all that much better than ND in the championship game. And if you think Bama’s rout of ND says the worst possible thing about the current system, you’re wrong, it’s the second worst thing. The worst thing: if Oregon and/or KSU had not suffered upset losses near the end of the season, Bama wouldn’t even have played in the championship game. Think about that: ND would have been in (or maybe OR vs. KSU; that game didn't turn out very well-matched, either), but not Bama.
How much will a playoff system help? If it had been in place this year, I think Oregon might still have missed out, to teams like Florida, which stunk up the Sugar Bowl, Stanford, which had a good season and upset OR but struggled to beat 8-5 Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, and of course ND. Any playoff system still depends on a reasonable ranking of teams. That the system had ND no. 1 says there are big problems with that system. You can expand the number of teams, but then you get a situation like in the NFL, where teams like the Giants play mediocre in the regular season, barely qualify for the postseason, then get hot or lucky at the right time. We discussed this last year.