Agree completely. Also with what Merckx said, echoing what I said about Wentz (and Goff) being untested. Wentz may look great in drills and some film against sub-par competition, but people are talking that he's the next Andrew Luck. And even Luck's had some tough times in the NFL.
I wrote a few times about this mental phenomenon. Teams become enamored with players and remove much objectivity in their emotional hope that the player will pan out. They see these young, physically gifted QB's as players who have never failed in the NFL, where as a player who may have similar talent, plus experience, but has "failed" in attempts in the NFL, is out of consideration. Some teams understand this, but many don't.
For example. Are Wentz and Goff likely equal to, or better than: Ryan Fitzpatrick? Sam Bradford? Mike Glennon? Zach Mettenberger? Drew Stanton? Mark Sanchez? Landry Jones? People forget Derek Anderson actually made it to the Pro Bowl, playing for Cleveland! All of these QBs have started, and won games for NFL teams. Often sub-par NFL teams. Teams that had about as good of a roster as the Rams, who will likely decline overall after trading away the future here.
Let's look at another player. AJ McCarron. He's played well when been in games, some of them big games. He's made some mistakes too, but shown a lot of promise as well. The Bengals say he's not for sale, but I wonder if they would have changed their tune if the Rams threw most of the same picks they did at them, that they did to get Wentz (or Goff)?
The Rams will be selling Wentz as the face of the franchise, the new. But they could also easily sell McCarron. He's an all-American kid, and well known already. They could even sell Landry Jones, if you ask me. Son of a minister, Jones is about as clean cut as it gets, and very well spoken.
NFL teams and managers see those guys as marginal, not new. With draft picks, they see hope. But they do so with a lot of blind faith, and like bad gamblers, or people who chase bad stocks, they get emotionally caught up in these decisions. History has shown that plenty of smart "experts" have made poor decisions.
movingtarget said:
Paxton Lynch and few others seem to have fallen off the radar but the 49ers are still talking about Connor Cooke who seems to be another problem child and will be picked by a team who does not mind taking risks based on his past behavior.
This illustrates my point entirely. Physically, there's not much difference between Cook and Wentz, though Wentz is maybe a little more accurate with deeper throws, though Cook has plenty of arm strength. But Cook has way more experience in big games. He played his worst in his final game against NCAA champs Alabama, but their whole team was overmatched, and spent. And word is he's a bit of a hot head and needs to grow up. People said the same thing about Cam Newton. I'd say taking Cook even late in the first round is a risk in the draft. Even the second round may be iffy. But you could easily grab him without making a trade, or a big trade.
If you look at the big picture, I'd say the risk between taking Cook with a late 1st round pick, or an early 2nd round pick, is a safer risk than trading away a heap of top draft picks in this and future years to get Wentz. I'd say this even if I needed an NFL QB, like the Rams do.
Lynch is even easier to justify than Cook. But the Rams made an emotional decision. And as I said before, this will help sell tickets.