National Football League

[on3m@n@rmy]

Mel Kiper, Jr., in his mock draft has the 49ers drafting Mitch Trubisky (UNC) with their 2nd OA pick. He thinks Shanahan would want to start fresh with a new QB, as he's demonstrated success with Cousins. Trubisky has really jumped lately in draft status and is now projected by many as the #1 QB prospect. I never saw him play at UNC as most of the attention last year seem to be on Watson & Kizer. The reports say Trubisky has great size, a canon for an arm and good accuracy. We'll have see how he looks at the Combine next month and what his evaluation will be.

Interestingly, Kiper has Watson going to the Bills with the 10th OA pick. If that's the case, IMO, Taylor's gone. I don't think either one of these guys would want to sit the bench, and I doubt Watson coming off a National Championship season is going to want to sit and "wait his time" behind Taylor. Taylor is also coming off of groin surgery.

Just some interesting preliminary stuff with Kiper, who historically is pretty accurate with his insight on draft predictions:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2017/2/15/14598642/mel-kiper-nfl-mock-draft-2017-mitch-trubisky-deshaun-watson-quarterbacks-49ers-pick

I really don't hate to say it, but Kiper is an idiot. While he might speak truth and have insight sometimes, never believe anything he says. Especially when it comes to QBs. Kiper is the one who said publicly on TV during the 2012 draft that Russ Wilson would never play in the NFL because of his height. Those words brought on an immediate, furious criticism by Jon Gruden on the broadcast. It's because Kiper does not know who to evaluate talent. He overlooks film (how a player plays). He's just not a good evaluator of talent.

As for the 49ers, they'd be fools to draft a QB at #5 overall. And Kiper is nuts for projecting that. The 9ers have too many holes, and this is not a draft to go selecting a QB in the top-5 or even top-10 overall. This IS a good draft, if the team has a top-5 OA pick and are in need of draft picks (like most teams with a bad record do), of trading down to get more picks. Some big boards have the highest rated QB (Kiser) down in the upper 20's, and the next highest rated QB (Trubisky) in the upper 30's. All the QBs in this draft are reaches if drafted in the top-10 overall.

49ers new GM John Lynch lately has apparently smoothed things over with Kaep, such that Kaep came out of his meeting with Lynch excited, indicating the team wants to keep him around at least for now (being patient, waiting until better QB prospects are available). Lynch is on a steep learning curve with the business side of the GM job, but he is a smart football guy and I guarantee knows this draft landscape. He knows where the talent is and, I think, how to build a winning roster. He can do a lot of things with this draft, like trade down to get more picks and/or start by drafting defensive players (which is where the bulk of the talent is in this draft). If the 49ers are smart, their focus in this draft will be on non-QB positions in the higher rounds (1, 2, and maybe 3rd - and plan to stay with Kaep or one of their other QBs for day 1 of the regular season), but then maybe draft a QB in later rounds (3rd through 7th). Heck, if they are REALLY good in the draft, they will pick up an undrafted free agent QB that becomes a hit, like Seattle did last year with Boyton, who is Seattle's #2 now.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2694947-nick-mangold-released-by-new-york-jets
With 1 year and 9 million left on his contract, in a cap space move, the Jets release 11 year veteran and 7 Time pro bowler Nick Mangold. The 33-year old will probably land somewhere as he still has ball in him.

Several tackles will likely be available in free agency. The Jets Clady, the Jags Beachum, some kid from Miami who I think they will resign or trade, the Broncos Okung, maybe the Jets Giacomini, & maybe the Vikes Matt Kalil. Because of age or injury history, Most yeams won't likely touch them for a starting role. Teams would be more likely to bring one in for depth or insurance policy, like Seattle did last year with J'Marcus Webb, who was cut by mid-season.

The NFL combine starts Tuesday. Anyone interested?

I've usually watched bits & pieces of the combine over the years. The QB drills are always interesting to watch, but I realize they're not throwing with mean & nasty defensive players in their face. What looks nice & impressive with their throws doesn't always translate into success when the preseason starts and players are trying to take their head off.

What blows me away at the combine is some of the 40 yd times being run with big players. Seeing "Megatron" type receivers (e.g., 6-3, 225 lb guys) running 4.4's is unbelievable. Thirty years ago the average TE was about that size and might on a good day run 4.6's. Now TEs go 6-6, 250, and can easily run 4.6's with some getting into the 4.5 range...simply amazing.

Also, some scouts are saying that RB Leonard Fournette of LSU (potentially the first RB to be chosen) could challenge Chris Johnson's 40 yd record time of 4.24. Some reports say that Fournette has gone 4.35 on a hand-held timer. This coming from a 6-1, 235 lb powerhouse (imagine the impact trying to tackle him head on when he's at full-speed. Lol).

Even some of the big 300 lb defensive lineman are going under 5.0 these days. No wonder the collision forces have gone up exponentially...speed x mass = destruction.

I like your physics, D = vm ("v" being velocity or speed), better than F = ma. Offseason focus is always on "bigger, stronger, faster", so wait 20 years, look back, and see how the players have changed. I predict, "WOW" expressions then too. So, "go Safety" (my head trauma prevention focus).

As to Fournette, he's a good kid, really like his attitude, has amazing attributes, and he is #2 overall on some folks' big board. I'm sure he's responsible for many a headache of defenders. But yes, I pity the fool who has to tackle him head on.

But, sorry I'm going to change the direction of that discussion of forces. Fournette, he's not an ankle breaker like Dallas' Zeke Elliot. He is at his best when the gaps are gaping and he can run standing straight up, even though he's had success dropping his shoulder when needed. But he has been injury prone, and many defenses in the NFL play with really good gap responsibility, not allowing much of a running lane. His situation will be an interesting watch. I really would not criticize a team for drafting him high like I would one that drafted a QB high. But the final question each team should ask themselves before drafting a player is, "How durable can we expect this guy to be based on prior injury history?" With Fournette, I'm not sure.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2694947-nick-mangold-released-by-new-york-jets
With 1 year and 9 million left on his contract, in a cap space move, the Jets release 11 year veteran and 7 Time pro bowler Nick Mangold. The 33-year old will probably land somewhere as he still has ball in him.

Several tackles will likely be available in free agency. The Jets Clady, the Jags Beachum, some kid from Miami who I think they will resign or trade, the Broncos Okung, maybe the Jets Giacomini, & maybe the Vikes Matt Kalil. Because of age or injury history, Most yeams won't likely touch them for a starting role. Teams would be more likely to bring one in for depth or insurance policy, like Seattle did last year with J'Marcus Webb, who was cut by mid-season.

The NFL combine starts Tuesday. Anyone interested?

Can't say I get very interested in the combine. As for the Jets I think there will be a QB on the way to them.

Are you thinking the Jets try to pick up a free agent QB (e.g. maybe Romo, or Cousins if Wash is nuts enough to let him escape), or draft one?

I think they might pick up a free agent and may even draft one as well, like the 49ers it's a position that always seems to be a problem. I thought Romo might end up in Houston but I now think their is more chance he ends up at Denver and Houston persevere with Ostweiler for the moment. If Kaep lands anywhere if the 49ers are not interested I think he has some chance of going to the Jets. Chicago is supposedly chasing Jimmy G so it sounds like Cutler will be on the move. If Cousins does not get the deal he is after at the Redskins I think the 49ers will be the obvious team to chase him with the Shanahan connection. Tyrod Taylor is another one that won't get paid what he wants so his days at the Bills seem numbered. So there will be a few decent QBs as free agents but the majority it seems will be back ups and there doesn't seem to be a lot of enthusiasm about the draft QBs either except for one or two. Doesn't look quite as good as the previous draft. There is some talk of Cutler at the 49ers possibly if Cousins stays as most people expect him to. I don't really think that Washington have a choice but to keep him. Chicago and Cutler is in a similar situation to the 49ers with Kaep, both players have talent but they don't produce good performances often enough. Kaep also got rid of his agent which probably means that he isn't getting the interest he thinks he deserves and the 49ers will want to restructure his contract to keep him even for a short term deal which Kaep won't want. I would be surprised if he remains at the 49ers, now is the obvious time for the 49ers to look elsewhere with all new coaches, a new GM and roster that will probably be taken apart.

The Jets roster situation on the OL has just gotten much worse, and worse for any QB. The Jets will cut 3 offensive linemen, all starters:
- center Nick Mangold (11 year vet, 7-time pro bowler) in a cap space move
- LT Ryan Clady
- RT Breno Giacomini
And the thing about available free agent offensive tackles is, there are not many good ones worth spending much on. The best one (ex-Fin Brandon Albert) just signed with the Jags who released tackle Beachum. So the Jets almost have to draft OLmen high in the draft, and maybe pick up a free agent OLman as an insurance policy. Overall, I think the Jets situation on offense is worse than the 49ers. If the 49ers selecting a QB in the draft at a top-5 overall spot is dumb, the Jets doing the same would be "Dumb, Dumber, and Dumberer". Now if the Jets or 49ers could deal for Cousins, then they would have something. Otherwise, no, I think they should be patient, fill other non-QB holes this offseason/draft, and wait to get a QB in the next year or two. The PATS Garoppolo is also a possibility, but does not have the starting resume of Cousins.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Top ranked offensive tackles for the 2017 NFL draft:
1. Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama. 6’-6”, 326 lbs, 40 time ~5.20. Projected Round: Top-20.
2. Ryan Ramcyzk, OT, Wisconsin. 6’-6”, 297 lbs, 40 time ~5.00. Projected Round: 1.
3. Garett Bolles, OT, Utah. 6’-5”, 300 lbs, 40 time ~5.05. Projected Round: 1-3.
After that the talent level drops off to 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders.

So the Jets needing to pick up at OT may need to do so early in the draft and not wait for later rounds. I have not watched video of all 3 of those players, Only Robinson because 1) he has received so many accolades, and 2) he played in the NCAA NC finals vs Clemson. Honestly, I was not that impressed with what I saw. But it was not a highlight video. It was just one game (not the NC finals game) where he may have had an off day.

I said last year "gas-mask" Tunsil was a risk. Due to that label, he fell from a top-5 pick to Miami at #16 overall in last year's draft. Miami just cut high-priced, yet good, LT Brandon Albert, and who are they trusting the LT position to now? Tunsil, who has apparently learned quickly from playing mistakes. So, LOL, I could be all wrong. But unlike Mel Kiper, I don't get paid to be wrong.

 

[movingtarget]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2694947-nick-mangold-released-by-new-york-jets
With 1 year and 9 million left on his contract, in a cap space move, the Jets release 11 year veteran and 7 Time pro bowler Nick Mangold. The 33-year old will probably land somewhere as he still has ball in him.

Several tackles will likely be available in free agency. The Jets Clady, the Jags Beachum, some kid from Miami who I think they will resign or trade, the Broncos Okung, maybe the Jets Giacomini, & maybe the Vikes Matt Kalil. Because of age or injury history, Most yeams won't likely touch them for a starting role. Teams would be more likely to bring one in for depth or insurance policy, like Seattle did last year with J'Marcus Webb, who was cut by mid-season.

The NFL combine starts Tuesday. Anyone interested?

Can't say I get very interested in the combine. As for the Jets I think there will be a QB on the way to them.

Are you thinking the Jets try to pick up a free agent QB (e.g. maybe Romo, or Cousins if Wash is nuts enough to let him escape), or draft one?

I think they might pick up a free agent and may even draft one as well, like the 49ers it's a position that always seems to be a problem. I thought Romo might end up in Houston but I now think their is more chance he ends up at Denver and Houston persevere with Ostweiler for the moment. If Kaep lands anywhere if the 49ers are not interested I think he has some chance of going to the Jets. Chicago is supposedly chasing Jimmy G so it sounds like Cutler will be on the move. If Cousins does not get the deal he is after at the Redskins I think the 49ers will be the obvious team to chase him with the Shanahan connection. Tyrod Taylor is another one that won't get paid what he wants so his days at the Bills seem numbered. So there will be a few decent QBs as free agents but the majority it seems will be back ups and there doesn't seem to be a lot of enthusiasm about the draft QBs either except for one or two. Doesn't look quite as good as the previous draft. There is some talk of Cutler at the 49ers possibly if Cousins stays as most people expect him to. I don't really think that Washington have a choice but to keep him. Chicago and Cutler is in a similar situation to the 49ers with Kaep, both players have talent but they don't produce good performances often enough. Kaep also got rid of his agent which probably means that he isn't getting the interest he thinks he deserves and the 49ers will want to restructure his contract to keep him even for a short term deal which Kaep won't want. I would be surprised if he remains at the 49ers, now is the obvious time for the 49ers to look elsewhere with all new coaches, a new GM and roster that will probably be taken apart.

The Jets roster situation on the OL has just gotten much worse, and worse for any QB. The Jets will cut 3 offensive linemen, all starters:
- center Nick Mangold (11 year vet, 7-time pro bowler) in a cap space move
- LT Ryan Clady
- RT Breno Giacomini
And the thing about available free agent offensive tackles is, there are not many good ones worth spending much on. The best one (ex-Fin Brandon Albert) just signed with the Jags who released tackle Beachum. So the Jets almost have to draft OLmen high in the draft, and maybe pick up a free agent OLman as an insurance policy. Overall, I think the Jets situation on offense is worse than the 49ers. If the 49ers selecting a QB in the draft at a top-5 overall spot is dumb, the Jets doing the same would be "Dumb, Dumber, and Dumberer". Now if the Jets or 49ers could deal for Cousins, then they would have something. Otherwise, no, I think they should be patient, fill other non-QB holes this offseason/draft, and wait to get a QB in the next year or two. The PATS Garoppolo is also a possibility, but does not have the starting resume of Cousins.

Depending on who you believe many of the pundits don't think the 49ers will draft a QB in the early rounds or at all. Some think Kaep will stay for the short term or they will pick up a free agent for a year or two. Either way has some dangers for Lynch and Shanahan in a results driven league. Even though they have both been signed to long term contracts if the 49ers are not making headway after two or three seasons the judgements will come thick and fast and the owners will be questioned as many already have about taking both an untried head coach and GM in the one year. Lots of coaches fail at their first attempt, some really good ones but the 49ers have showed they are not sentimental about holding onto people because of what they have done before. If they keep Kaep it will only be because they think it will be worth a shot to see if he improves while they build other positions like WR and defense. The problem is that they also need a reasonable alternate if he fails which is possible after the past few seasons. I still think they will be very interested in Cousins and possibly Cutler but Kaep also needs to have a contract he thinks is worthwhile and he many not get that so there is plenty of thinking for Shanahan to do. I agree that the Jets offense is a big problem also and so is the Rams. The Rams best RB Gurley went backwards last year and they have had huge issues for the past two seasons. The only games they tend to win is low scoring games. The two young coaches at the Rams and 49ers are going to find out pretty quickly about the pressures of a head coach and they both know that the owners took a leap of faith in signing them both so they will get a certain amount of time to restructure but results will be expected sooner rather than later.

 

[Nomad]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2694947-nick-mangold-released-by-new-york-jets
With 1 year and 9 million left on his contract, in a cap space move, the Jets release 11 year veteran and 7 Time pro bowler Nick Mangold. The 33-year old will probably land somewhere as he still has ball in him.

Several tackles will likely be available in free agency. The Jets Clady, the Jags Beachum, some kid from Miami who I think they will resign or trade, the Broncos Okung, maybe the Jets Giacomini, & maybe the Vikes Matt Kalil. Because of age or injury history, Most yeams won't likely touch them for a starting role. Teams would be more likely to bring one in for depth or insurance policy, like Seattle did last year with J'Marcus Webb, who was cut by mid-season.

The NFL combine starts Tuesday. Anyone interested?

I've usually watched bits & pieces of the combine over the years. The QB drills are always interesting to watch, but I realize they're not throwing with mean & nasty defensive players in their face. What looks nice & impressive with their throws doesn't always translate into success when the preseason starts and players are trying to take their head off.

What blows me away at the combine is some of the 40 yd times being run with big players. Seeing "Megatron" type receivers (e.g., 6-3, 225 lb guys) running 4.4's is unbelievable. Thirty years ago the average TE was about that size and might on a good day run 4.6's. Now TEs go 6-6, 250, and can easily run 4.6's with some getting into the 4.5 range...simply amazing.

Also, some scouts are saying that RB Leonard Fournette of LSU (potentially the first RB to be chosen) could challenge Chris Johnson's 40 yd record time of 4.24. Some reports say that Fournette has gone 4.35 on a hand-held timer. This coming from a 6-1, 235 lb powerhouse (imagine the impact trying to tackle him head on when he's at full-speed. Lol).

Even some of the big 300 lb defensive lineman are going under 5.0 these days. No wonder the collision forces have gone up exponentially...speed x mass = destruction.

I like your physics, D = vm ("v" being velocity or speed), better than F = ma. Offseason focus is always on "bigger, stronger, faster", so wait 20 years, look back, and see how the players have changed. I predict, "WOW" expressions then too. So, "go Safety" (my head trauma prevention focus).

As to Fournette, he's a good kid, really like his attitude, has amazing attributes, and he is #2 overall on some folks' big board. I'm sure he's responsible for many a headache of defenders. But yes, I pity the fool who has to tackle him head on.

But, sorry I'm going to change the direction of that discussion of forces. Fournette, he's not an ankle breaker like Dallas' Zeke Elliot. He is at his best when the gaps are gaping and he can run standing straight up, even though he's had success dropping his shoulder when needed. But he has been injury prone, and many defenses in the NFL play with really good gap responsibility, not allowing much of a running lane. His situation will be an interesting watch. I really would not criticize a team for drafting him high like I would one that drafted a QB high. But the final question each team should ask themselves before drafting a player is, "How durable can we expect this guy to be based on prior injury history?" With Fournette, I'm not sure.

What are you talking about? Most RBs look for gaps and try to get positive yardage - it's called hitting the hole. Fournette hits the holes with amazing acceleration and can dish out some violent hits on LBs & DBs if the situation arises. You need to watch more highlights of him...here he is putting the wood on an Ole Miss DB (I don't think the DB knew if was foot or horseback after that, Lol):

https://youtu.be/D-km8oFX1CE

And here's a short highlight segment of him "ankle breaking" defenders:

https://youtu.be/GsN19V9Ki4k

He's also not injury prone - last year he was bothered by an ankle injury that cost him some games...big deal. Look at his freshman & sophomore seasons - almost 2000 yards rushing in 2015! He also can catch the ball out of the backfield...a trait badly diminishing with RBs these days. He didn't need surgery on the ankle after the season, so I'm assuming he's good to go at the combine. And just missing some games last year due to the ankle injury isn't a significant prior injury history (a guy like Romo is one with a significant injury history & durability issues, Lol). You better sit back and watch this 235 lb monster run some 40s...he could go low 4.3's.

If that ankle injury looks fully healed up & he shines at the combine - look out he's going to go very high in the first rd. A 235 pounder going 4.3 is a gem with that blazing speed! And I remember my old H.S. coach from way back in the 70s telling us that "speed never has a bad day."

 

[Nomad]

Mel Kiper, Jr., in his mock draft has the 49ers drafting Mitch Trubisky (UNC) with their 2nd OA pick. He thinks Shanahan would want to start fresh with a new QB, as he's demonstrated success with Cousins. Trubisky has really jumped lately in draft status and is now projected by many as the #1 QB prospect. I never saw him play at UNC as most of the attention last year seem to be on Watson & Kizer. The reports say Trubisky has great size, a canon for an arm and good accuracy. We'll have see how he looks at the Combine next month and what his evaluation will be.

Interestingly, Kiper has Watson going to the Bills with the 10th OA pick. If that's the case, IMO, Taylor's gone. I don't think either one of these guys would want to sit the bench, and I doubt Watson coming off a National Championship season is going to want to sit and "wait his time" behind Taylor. Taylor is also coming off of groin surgery.

Just some interesting preliminary stuff with Kiper, who historically is pretty accurate with his insight on draft predictions:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2017/2/15/14598642/mel-kiper-nfl-mock-draft-2017-mitch-trubisky-deshaun-watson-quarterbacks-49ers-pick

I really don't hate to say it, but Kiper is an idiot. While he might speak truth and have insight sometimes, never believe anything he says. Especially when it comes to QBs. Kiper is the one who said publicly on TV during the 2012 draft that Russ Wilson would never play in the NFL because of his height. Those words brought on an immediate, furious criticism by Jon Gruden on the broadcast. It's because Kiper does not know who to evaluate talent. He overlooks film (how a player plays). He's just not a good evaluator of talent.

As for the 49ers, they'd be fools to draft a QB at #5 overall. And Kiper is nuts for projecting that. The 9ers have too many holes, and this is not a draft to go selecting a QB in the top-5 or even top-10 overall. This IS a good draft, if the team has a top-5 OA pick and are in need of draft picks (like most teams with a bad record do), of trading down to get more picks. Some big boards have the highest rated QB (Kiser) down in the upper 20's, and the next highest rated QB (Trubisky) in the upper 30's. All the QBs in this draft are reaches if drafted in the top-10 overall.

49ers new GM John Lynch lately has apparently smoothed things over with Kaep, such that Kaep came out of his meeting with Lynch excited, indicating the team wants to keep him around at least for now (being patient, waiting until better QB prospects are available). Lynch is on a steep learning curve with the business side of the GM job, but he is a smart football guy and I guarantee knows this draft landscape. He knows where the talent is and, I think, how to build a winning roster. He can do a lot of things with this draft, like trade down to get more picks and/or start by drafting defensive players (which is where the bulk of the talent is in this draft). If the 49ers are smart, their focus in this draft will be on non-QB positions in the higher rounds (1, 2, and maybe 3rd - and plan to stay with Kaep or one of their other QBs for day 1 of the regular season), but then maybe draft a QB in later rounds (3rd through 7th). Heck, if they are REALLY good in the draft, they will pick up an undrafted free agent QB that becomes a hit, like Seattle did last year with Boyton, who is Seattle's #2 now.

So Kiper is an "idiot" because he completely misjudged one QB? He's gotten many more right than wrong. And just how many GM's passed on Wilson because of his height? Even Elway passed on him and took the 6-7 Osweiler in the 2nd rd, well ahead of the available Wilson, who Seattle didn't even take until the mid-3rd (he was drafted to be a backup...remember Seattle put all their eggs in the basket with Matt Flynn). Wilson is an anomaly - how many QBs under 6 ft are currently starting in the NFL? How many have started and succeeded in the last 20 years?

Btw, the 49ers have the 2nd overall pick, not the 5th. And the majority of the mock drafts from NFL draft experts have them taking Trubisky. One has them even taking Kizer. So, I guess they're also "nuts" for making this prediction?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2695008-2017-nfl-mock-draft-pre-scouting-combine-predictions-for-1st-round-prospects

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-drafts

https://www.landof10.com/big-ten/2017-nfl-mock-draft-order-first-round-picks


I think it's uncertainty here whether or not Shanahan could aquire a Jimmy Garoppolo (he may not want to play for a lousy ballclub like the 49ers, Lol) or take a risk on an aging, beat up, injury prone guy like Romo. Other than that, who's out there in QB free agency that would be worthwhile and affordable? That's why I'm thinking the 49ers will draft either Trubisky or Kizer, depending on how they look at in some combine action. I don't think Kaep is the answer other than a backup - a one year wonder who's faded badly that last several years. And there's Gabbert, lol, another one of many 1st rd QB busts in the last several years (rd 1/pick #10 in 2011).

And Lynch a "smart football guy?" He hasn't even had one year under his belt and you're already giving him accolades for GM of the year. If you want to see a successful former player turned GM who lit it up big-time...think John Elway. With 6 yrs on the job, he's taken the Broncos to the playoffs 5 out of those 6, with a SB title and two appearances. That's getting the job done...Elway da man!

 

[movingtarget]

Mel Kiper, Jr., in his mock draft has the 49ers drafting Mitch Trubisky (UNC) with their 2nd OA pick. He thinks Shanahan would want to start fresh with a new QB, as he's demonstrated success with Cousins. Trubisky has really jumped lately in draft status and is now projected by many as the #1 QB prospect. I never saw him play at UNC as most of the attention last year seem to be on Watson & Kizer. The reports say Trubisky has great size, a canon for an arm and good accuracy. We'll have see how he looks at the Combine next month and what his evaluation will be.

Interestingly, Kiper has Watson going to the Bills with the 10th OA pick. If that's the case, IMO, Taylor's gone. I don't think either one of these guys would want to sit the bench, and I doubt Watson coming off a National Championship season is going to want to sit and "wait his time" behind Taylor. Taylor is also coming off of groin surgery.

Just some interesting preliminary stuff with Kiper, who historically is pretty accurate with his insight on draft predictions:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2017/2/15/14598642/mel-kiper-nfl-mock-draft-2017-mitch-trubisky-deshaun-watson-quarterbacks-49ers-pick

I really don't hate to say it, but Kiper is an idiot. While he might speak truth and have insight sometimes, never believe anything he says. Especially when it comes to QBs. Kiper is the one who said publicly on TV during the 2012 draft that Russ Wilson would never play in the NFL because of his height. Those words brought on an immediate, furious criticism by Jon Gruden on the broadcast. It's because Kiper does not know who to evaluate talent. He overlooks film (how a player plays). He's just not a good evaluator of talent.

As for the 49ers, they'd be fools to draft a QB at #5 overall. And Kiper is nuts for projecting that. The 9ers have too many holes, and this is not a draft to go selecting a QB in the top-5 or even top-10 overall. This IS a good draft, if the team has a top-5 OA pick and are in need of draft picks (like most teams with a bad record do), of trading down to get more picks. Some big boards have the highest rated QB (Kiser) down in the upper 20's, and the next highest rated QB (Trubisky) in the upper 30's. All the QBs in this draft are reaches if drafted in the top-10 overall.

49ers new GM John Lynch lately has apparently smoothed things over with Kaep, such that Kaep came out of his meeting with Lynch excited, indicating the team wants to keep him around at least for now (being patient, waiting until better QB prospects are available). Lynch is on a steep learning curve with the business side of the GM job, but he is a smart football guy and I guarantee knows this draft landscape. He knows where the talent is and, I think, how to build a winning roster. He can do a lot of things with this draft, like trade down to get more picks and/or start by drafting defensive players (which is where the bulk of the talent is in this draft). If the 49ers are smart, their focus in this draft will be on non-QB positions in the higher rounds (1, 2, and maybe 3rd - and plan to stay with Kaep or one of their other QBs for day 1 of the regular season), but then maybe draft a QB in later rounds (3rd through 7th). Heck, if they are REALLY good in the draft, they will pick up an undrafted free agent QB that becomes a hit, like Seattle did last year with Boyton, who is Seattle's #2 now.

So Kiper is an "idiot" because he completely misjudged one QB? He's gotten many more right than wrong. And just how many GM's passed on Wilson because of his height? Even Elway passed on him and took the 6-7 Osweiler in the 2nd rd, well ahead of the available Wilson, who Seattle didn't even take until the mid-3rd (he was drafted to be a backup...remember Seattle put all their eggs in the basket with Matt Flynn). Wilson is an anomaly - how many QBs under 6 ft are currently starting in the NFL? How many have started and succeeded in the last 20 years?

Btw, the 49ers have the 2nd overall pick, not the 5th. And the majority of the mock drafts from NFL draft experts have them taking Trubisky. One has them even taking Kizer. So, I guess they're also "nuts" for making this prediction?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2695008-2017-nfl-mock-draft-pre-scouting-combine-predictions-for-1st-round-prospects

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-drafts

https://www.landof10.com/big-ten/2017-nfl-mock-draft-order-first-round-picks


I think it's uncertainty here whether or not Shanahan could aquire a Jimmy Garoppolo (he may not want to play for a lousy ballclub like the 49ers, Lol) or take a risk on an aging, beat up, injury prone guy like Romo. Other than that, who's out there in QB free agency that would be worthwhile and affordable? That's why I'm thinking the 49ers will draft either Trubisky or Kizer, depending on how they look at in some combine action. I don't think Kaep is the answer other than a backup - a one year wonder who's faded badly that last several years. And there's Gabbert, lol, another one of many 1st rd QB busts in the last several years (rd 1/pick #10 in 2011).

And Lynch a "smart football guy?" He hasn't even had one year under his belt and you're already giving him accolades for GM of the year. If you want to see a successful former player turned GM who lit it up big-time...think John Elway. With 6 yrs on the job, he's taken the Broncos to the playoffs 5 out of those 6, with a SB title and two appearances. That's getting the job done...Elway da man!

i think the 49ers will be forced to take a QB if they are serious about the rebuild, and the timing is right. I think Kaep is yesterday's man. Even if they pick up a free agent they should still draft a QB, they have the second pick and plenty of money to play with. The 49ers have four QBs on the books as there is every chance that they are all gone. Ponder hasn't started a game for years, Gabbert and Kaep are not starters and the other guy who came with Kelly and was on IR is only a back up as well. Kaep is being paid too much to be kept as a back up and he isn't the guy for Shanahan's fast paced offense anyway. If they keep anyone it could be Gabbert as a number three or four who they won't have to pay much anyway. It wouldn't surprise me if they picked up a free agent while they developed a rookie, I think the worst case scenario is keeping Kaep. Wherever he plays next year could be his last contract unless he can regain his old form which looks to be very doubtful. Cutler, Jimmy G, Cousins and a few others are ahead of Kaep, he is just too inconsistent and the wide receivers don't see enough of the ball when he is playing. When he can run he looks good but when the defense is good and he has to throw and move the ball downfield, he often looks lost, he takes too long to throw and can't find the receivers, he's not a good game manager.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

No time to post today, but wanted to say I agree on two things.

Kiper is a stopped clock idiot. A self-congratulating one at that.

I can't imagine the 49ers will keep Kaep, or Gabbert for that matter. I don't see either starting anywhere in the NFL, even in a QB starved league. I imagine Shanahan views both as yesterday's leftovers. Even if they draft someone not ready to start game 1 (which is rare anyway) it makes more sense to have a new vet QB starting for the team. A Case Keenum to take snaps while Goff studies and doesn't get hurt, or his ego bruised too badly by being thrown to the wolves for all 16 games. Look at David Carr for example. And no QB in this draft enters the NFL as ready as Carr was.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

No time to post today, but wanted to say I agree on two things.

Kiper is a stopped clock idiot. A self-congratulating one at that.

I can't imagine the 49ers will keep Kaep, or Gabbert for that matter. I don't see either starting anywhere in the NFL, even in a QB starved league. I imagine Shanahan views both as yesterday's leftovers. Even if they draft someone not ready to start game 1 (which is rare anyway) it makes more sense to have a new vet QB starting for the team. A Case Keenum to take snaps while Goff studies and doesn't get hurt, or his ego bruised too badly by being thrown to the wolves for all 16 games. Look at David Carr for example. And no QB in this draft enters the NFL as ready as Carr was.

Somehow I think Cutler might be a chance to go to the 49ers even though he will probably be paid too much. He has a connection with the Shanahans and Chicago want him gone and are supposedly wanting Garropolo but will probably settle for someone else. Cutler for all of his critics is still better than Kaep or Gabbert. Be also interesting to see where Tyrod Taylor ends up. What Washington will want for Cousins will be too much but it seems that Cousins wants his big pay day and if he doesn't get it and someone else is willing to offer more Washington could be the losers in a pretty tight QB market.

 

[Nomad]

Mel Kiper, Jr., in his mock draft has the 49ers drafting Mitch Trubisky (UNC) with their 2nd OA pick. He thinks Shanahan would want to start fresh with a new QB, as he's demonstrated success with Cousins. Trubisky has really jumped lately in draft status and is now projected by many as the #1 QB prospect. I never saw him play at UNC as most of the attention last year seem to be on Watson & Kizer. The reports say Trubisky has great size, a canon for an arm and good accuracy. We'll have see how he looks at the Combine next month and what his evaluation will be.

Interestingly, Kiper has Watson going to the Bills with the 10th OA pick. If that's the case, IMO, Taylor's gone. I don't think either one of these guys would want to sit the bench, and I doubt Watson coming off a National Championship season is going to want to sit and "wait his time" behind Taylor. Taylor is also coming off of groin surgery.

Just some interesting preliminary stuff with Kiper, who historically is pretty accurate with his insight on draft predictions:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2017/2/15/14598642/mel-kiper-nfl-mock-draft-2017-mitch-trubisky-deshaun-watson-quarterbacks-49ers-pick

I really don't hate to say it, but Kiper is an idiot. While he might speak truth and have insight sometimes, never believe anything he says. Especially when it comes to QBs. Kiper is the one who said publicly on TV during the 2012 draft that Russ Wilson would never play in the NFL because of his height. Those words brought on an immediate, furious criticism by Jon Gruden on the broadcast. It's because Kiper does not know who to evaluate talent. He overlooks film (how a player plays). He's just not a good evaluator of talent.

As for the 49ers, they'd be fools to draft a QB at #5 overall. And Kiper is nuts for projecting that. The 9ers have too many holes, and this is not a draft to go selecting a QB in the top-5 or even top-10 overall. This IS a good draft, if the team has a top-5 OA pick and are in need of draft picks (like most teams with a bad record do), of trading down to get more picks. Some big boards have the highest rated QB (Kiser) down in the upper 20's, and the next highest rated QB (Trubisky) in the upper 30's. All the QBs in this draft are reaches if drafted in the top-10 overall.

49ers new GM John Lynch lately has apparently smoothed things over with Kaep, such that Kaep came out of his meeting with Lynch excited, indicating the team wants to keep him around at least for now (being patient, waiting until better QB prospects are available). Lynch is on a steep learning curve with the business side of the GM job, but he is a smart football guy and I guarantee knows this draft landscape. He knows where the talent is and, I think, how to build a winning roster. He can do a lot of things with this draft, like trade down to get more picks and/or start by drafting defensive players (which is where the bulk of the talent is in this draft). If the 49ers are smart, their focus in this draft will be on non-QB positions in the higher rounds (1, 2, and maybe 3rd - and plan to stay with Kaep or one of their other QBs for day 1 of the regular season), but then maybe draft a QB in later rounds (3rd through 7th). Heck, if they are REALLY good in the draft, they will pick up an undrafted free agent QB that becomes a hit, like Seattle did last year with Boyton, who is Seattle's #2 now.

So Kiper is an "idiot" because he completely misjudged one QB? He's gotten many more right than wrong. And just how many GM's passed on Wilson because of his height? Even Elway passed on him and took the 6-7 Osweiler in the 2nd rd, well ahead of the available Wilson, who Seattle didn't even take until the mid-3rd (he was drafted to be a backup...remember Seattle put all their eggs in the basket with Matt Flynn). Wilson is an anomaly - how many QBs under 6 ft are currently starting in the NFL? How many have started and succeeded in the last 20 years?

Btw, the 49ers have the 2nd overall pick, not the 5th. And the majority of the mock drafts from NFL draft experts have them taking Trubisky. One has them even taking Kizer. So, I guess they're also "nuts" for making this prediction?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2695008-2017-nfl-mock-draft-pre-scouting-combine-predictions-for-1st-round-prospects

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-drafts

https://www.landof10.com/big-ten/2017-nfl-mock-draft-order-first-round-picks


I think it's uncertainty here whether or not Shanahan could aquire a Jimmy Garoppolo (he may not want to play for a lousy ballclub like the 49ers, Lol) or take a risk on an aging, beat up, injury prone guy like Romo. Other than that, who's out there in QB free agency that would be worthwhile and affordable? That's why I'm thinking the 49ers will draft either Trubisky or Kizer, depending on how they look at in some combine action. I don't think Kaep is the answer other than a backup - a one year wonder who's faded badly that last several years. And there's Gabbert, lol, another one of many 1st rd QB busts in the last several years (rd 1/pick #10 in 2011).

And Lynch a "smart football guy?" He hasn't even had one year under his belt and you're already giving him accolades for GM of the year. If you want to see a successful former player turned GM who lit it up big-time...think John Elway. With 6 yrs on the job, he's taken the Broncos to the playoffs 5 out of those 6, with a SB title and two appearances. That's getting the job done...Elway da man!

i think the 49ers will be forced to take a QB if they are serious about the rebuild, and the timing is right. I think Kaep is yesterday's man. Even if they pick up a free agent they should still draft a QB, they have the second pick and plenty of money to play with. The 49ers have four QBs on the books as there is every chance that they are all gone. Ponder hasn't started a game for years, Gabbert and Kaep are not starters and the other guy who came with Kelly and was on IR is only a back up as well. Kaep is being paid too much to be kept as a back up and he isn't the guy for Shanahan's fast paced offense anyway. If they keep anyone it could be Gabbert as a number three or four who they won't have to pay much anyway. It wouldn't surprise me if they picked up a free agent while they developed a rookie, I think the worst case scenario is keeping Kaep. Wherever he plays next year could be his last contract unless he can regain his old form which looks to be very doubtful. Cutler, Jimmy G, Cousins and a few others are ahead of Kaep, he is just too inconsistent and the wide receivers don't see enough of the ball when he is playing. When he can run he looks good but when the defense is good and he has to throw and move the ball downfield, he often looks lost, he takes too long to throw and can't find the receivers, he's not a good game manager.

Good points. I think Kaep & Gabbert are both gone and are probably ultimately destined as backups in the league (though I'm sure Kaep thinks he could start somewhere in the league). Remember the comedy last year when Gabbert beat out Keap in the preseason for the starting job? He lasts 5 games (1-4) before he's replaced by Keap, who goes 1-10 the rest of the season. Maybe Ponder will be the man to stick around and hold the clipboard for Shanahan? Ponder's another 1st rd QB bust (rd 1/pick 12 in 2011), right behind Gabbert that year who was #10 overall. When Manning went down with the plantar injury in 2015, Elway signed Ponder to a 1 year/minimum salary contract...but he was waived just two weeks later. Lol.

Any idea what's up with Kirk "you like that!" Cousins? The lastest reports say he wants out of Washington. If he balks at whatever offer the Skins present, would the 49ers be willing to pay huge dough for him? Would he even want to go play for a lousy team with no hope of any playoffs in the immediate future? One report says the Jets might come calling...and I hear the nightlife is pretty good in the Big Apple.

 

[movingtarget]

Mel Kiper, Jr., in his mock draft has the 49ers drafting Mitch Trubisky (UNC) with their 2nd OA pick. He thinks Shanahan would want to start fresh with a new QB, as he's demonstrated success with Cousins. Trubisky has really jumped lately in draft status and is now projected by many as the #1 QB prospect. I never saw him play at UNC as most of the attention last year seem to be on Watson & Kizer. The reports say Trubisky has great size, a canon for an arm and good accuracy. We'll have see how he looks at the Combine next month and what his evaluation will be.

Interestingly, Kiper has Watson going to the Bills with the 10th OA pick. If that's the case, IMO, Taylor's gone. I don't think either one of these guys would want to sit the bench, and I doubt Watson coming off a National Championship season is going to want to sit and "wait his time" behind Taylor. Taylor is also coming off of groin surgery.

Just some interesting preliminary stuff with Kiper, who historically is pretty accurate with his insight on draft predictions:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2017/2/15/14598642/mel-kiper-nfl-mock-draft-2017-mitch-trubisky-deshaun-watson-quarterbacks-49ers-pick

I really don't hate to say it, but Kiper is an idiot. While he might speak truth and have insight sometimes, never believe anything he says. Especially when it comes to QBs. Kiper is the one who said publicly on TV during the 2012 draft that Russ Wilson would never play in the NFL because of his height. Those words brought on an immediate, furious criticism by Jon Gruden on the broadcast. It's because Kiper does not know who to evaluate talent. He overlooks film (how a player plays). He's just not a good evaluator of talent.

As for the 49ers, they'd be fools to draft a QB at #5 overall. And Kiper is nuts for projecting that. The 9ers have too many holes, and this is not a draft to go selecting a QB in the top-5 or even top-10 overall. This IS a good draft, if the team has a top-5 OA pick and are in need of draft picks (like most teams with a bad record do), of trading down to get more picks. Some big boards have the highest rated QB (Kiser) down in the upper 20's, and the next highest rated QB (Trubisky) in the upper 30's. All the QBs in this draft are reaches if drafted in the top-10 overall.

49ers new GM John Lynch lately has apparently smoothed things over with Kaep, such that Kaep came out of his meeting with Lynch excited, indicating the team wants to keep him around at least for now (being patient, waiting until better QB prospects are available). Lynch is on a steep learning curve with the business side of the GM job, but he is a smart football guy and I guarantee knows this draft landscape. He knows where the talent is and, I think, how to build a winning roster. He can do a lot of things with this draft, like trade down to get more picks and/or start by drafting defensive players (which is where the bulk of the talent is in this draft). If the 49ers are smart, their focus in this draft will be on non-QB positions in the higher rounds (1, 2, and maybe 3rd - and plan to stay with Kaep or one of their other QBs for day 1 of the regular season), but then maybe draft a QB in later rounds (3rd through 7th). Heck, if they are REALLY good in the draft, they will pick up an undrafted free agent QB that becomes a hit, like Seattle did last year with Boyton, who is Seattle's #2 now.

So Kiper is an "idiot" because he completely misjudged one QB? He's gotten many more right than wrong. And just how many GM's passed on Wilson because of his height? Even Elway passed on him and took the 6-7 Osweiler in the 2nd rd, well ahead of the available Wilson, who Seattle didn't even take until the mid-3rd (he was drafted to be a backup...remember Seattle put all their eggs in the basket with Matt Flynn). Wilson is an anomaly - how many QBs under 6 ft are currently starting in the NFL? How many have started and succeeded in the last 20 years?

Btw, the 49ers have the 2nd overall pick, not the 5th. And the majority of the mock drafts from NFL draft experts have them taking Trubisky. One has them even taking Kizer. So, I guess they're also "nuts" for making this prediction?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2695008-2017-nfl-mock-draft-pre-scouting-combine-predictions-for-1st-round-prospects

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-drafts

https://www.landof10.com/big-ten/2017-nfl-mock-draft-order-first-round-picks


I think it's uncertainty here whether or not Shanahan could aquire a Jimmy Garoppolo (he may not want to play for a lousy ballclub like the 49ers, Lol) or take a risk on an aging, beat up, injury prone guy like Romo. Other than that, who's out there in QB free agency that would be worthwhile and affordable? That's why I'm thinking the 49ers will draft either Trubisky or Kizer, depending on how they look at in some combine action. I don't think Kaep is the answer other than a backup - a one year wonder who's faded badly that last several years. And there's Gabbert, lol, another one of many 1st rd QB busts in the last several years (rd 1/pick #10 in 2011).

And Lynch a "smart football guy?" He hasn't even had one year under his belt and you're already giving him accolades for GM of the year. If you want to see a successful former player turned GM who lit it up big-time...think John Elway. With 6 yrs on the job, he's taken the Broncos to the playoffs 5 out of those 6, with a SB title and two appearances. That's getting the job done...Elway da man!

i think the 49ers will be forced to take a QB if they are serious about the rebuild, and the timing is right. I think Kaep is yesterday's man. Even if they pick up a free agent they should still draft a QB, they have the second pick and plenty of money to play with. The 49ers have four QBs on the books as there is every chance that they are all gone. Ponder hasn't started a game for years, Gabbert and Kaep are not starters and the other guy who came with Kelly and was on IR is only a back up as well. Kaep is being paid too much to be kept as a back up and he isn't the guy for Shanahan's fast paced offense anyway. If they keep anyone it could be Gabbert as a number three or four who they won't have to pay much anyway. It wouldn't surprise me if they picked up a free agent while they developed a rookie, I think the worst case scenario is keeping Kaep. Wherever he plays next year could be his last contract unless he can regain his old form which looks to be very doubtful. Cutler, Jimmy G, Cousins and a few others are ahead of Kaep, he is just too inconsistent and the wide receivers don't see enough of the ball when he is playing. When he can run he looks good but when the defense is good and he has to throw and move the ball downfield, he often looks lost, he takes too long to throw and can't find the receivers, he's not a good game manager.

Good points. I think Kaep & Gabbert are both gone and are probably ultimately destined as backups in the league (though I'm sure Kaep thinks he could start somewhere in the league). Remember the comedy last year when Gabbert beat out Keap in the preseason for the starting job? He lasts 5 games (1-4) before he's replaced by Keap, who goes 1-10 the rest of the season. Maybe Ponder will be the man to stick around and hold the clipboard for Shanahan? Ponder's another 1st rd QB bust (rd 1/pick 12 in 2011), right behind Gabbert that year who was #10 overall. When Manning went down with the plantar injury in 2015, Elway signed Ponder to a 1 year/minimum salary contract...but he was waived just two weeks later. Lol.

Any idea what's up with Kirk "you like that!" Cousins? The lastest reports say he wants out of Washington. If he balks at whatever offer the Skins present, would the 49ers be willing to pay huge dough for him? Would he even want to go play for a lousy team with no hope of any playoffs in the immediate future? One report says the Jets might come calling...and I hear the nightlife is pretty good in the Big Apple.

I have heard many rumors about Cousins, one is that the 49ers want Garcon and Cousins as a package another is that the 49ers will have to give up two first round picks for Cousins ! Something new every week but it seems that Taylor and Cousins are in the same boat, the Bills would be interested in keeping Taylor as Washington would be in keeping Cousins but they don't want to pay them top dollar. Cousins thinks he deserves a big payday while Taylor has had some injury issues. There is some chance that both of them end up leaving. Washington say they want Cousins but they are not saying what they are willing to pay which seems to be all that Cousins is interested in. He has a connection with Shanahan as well but I get the feeling that Cousins would only go to the 49ers if he got a long term deal, Cutler is older and will definitely be cheaper, from what I heard Chicago was paying him a fortune but he will be lucky to get another deal like that just like Kaep won't get a deal to match what he is getting at the moment. I think it would be ridiculous for the 49ers to keep Kaep any longer. I think the Jets and maybe the Browns will also be looking and if Cousins does leave Washington, there will be plenty of interest in Jimmy G. Does Romo retire or sign a two year deal with another team ? Ponder might find he is back in retirement again, Gabbert would probably only get a call up if a team had injury issues. Ostweiler also probably has to improve this year or Houston could be looking elsewhere, he plays well in patches. Hoyer is another one whose name has been doing the rounds.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Taking a look at the names being tossed around...

Kirk, Cousins is maybe a top 10 QB in the NFL, with a very strong arm that can push the ball down the field in chunks, and been fairly durable. He can be pretty accurate, and attempt to (and sometimes succeed) at putting up big numbers carrying his team. But he's also had some bad games, mistakes that cost his team. They were worse early in his career, but still happen. Is he worth $25m a year? Well, no player is, really. And the owners aren't worth billions either. But as costs go, and QB rankings go, he can easily pull in $20m next season, no matter where he goes. It's just a matter of how long the deal is. If I were Washington, I'd roll the dice and try to sign him to less than a 5 year deal. Keep this in mind, in 2016 a full $19m out of his $19m contract was guaranteed. 100%. The only other QB in the league who got that kind of contract was Drew Brees, who throws more than anyone else and is like having a coach on the field, plus headed to the HOF, first ballot. Even Brady and Rodgers didn't get that kind of contract. Almost any long term contract will thus be better than franchising him again and paying $24m, and most if not all of that guaranteed. By the way, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler aren't worth $20m either. Guess what? That's what the market demands.

As to Tyrod Taylor. I posted on him before, he's at an option year, and the Bills are in a bind. The odds of them finding a better QB in the draft are zero. The odds of them getting a better QB through FA, unless Cousins is available, are zero. They have rookie Cardale Jones learning, but he's a project for certain and needs to learn way more about about passing from the pocket. He could be the next Big Ben, or the next Vince Young. It's way too early to tell. I just can't see him starting next season.

As to Jay Cutler, he still has maybe the strongest arm in the NFL, sans maybe Aaron Rodgers. He can make throws other QB's cannot, and doesn't overthrow on short passes. But he also doesn't see the field of play well enough, doesn't move great in the pocket, and makes too many mistakes. He was grossly overpaid in Chicago. If the 49ers for example can sign him to a 2 year deal, or 1 year with options, and it costs them over $15m, I'd do that, thinking he's your transition player, and if he plays more than 2 years and has an amazing late career comeback, great.

I still content the Bears should, and will keep and try to work with Matt Barkley. He had his best season going back to his junior year in college. He made some costly mistakes this season, but his head seems into the game, and his arm better than he ever showed in the NFL. There's a lot of potential upside with him.

Mike Glennon is another wild card here. He could be the next Alex Smith. Mike seems to see the field well and go through transitions very quickly. Not Tom Brady quickly, but very well. He also has a pretty accurate arm short, just like Smith. Alex gets dinged for not having a great arm. I think his arm is average strength, he just lacks deep field accuracy, which is peculiar because he's amazingly accurate short. Brady for example has an average arm, so did Peyton Manning, but both could put the ball 20+ yards down the field on the button when needed. Smith is iffy at this, and I'm not sure Glennon can do it. Smith moves better than I've seen from Glennon though. Still, like Barkley perhaps, I think there's upside with Glennon, on the right team, and right system, to be a starting QB.

I still contend Tony Romo should retire. Carry a clipboard for the Cowboys. But I can also see him easily getting paid another $20m or close to it this year, as the league is starved for quality QBs. He is excellent, when healthy. And would need a top flight OL to protect him to get him through the season. Where's that going to happen? Dallas? Oakland? New England? Those teams already have QB's.

I don't see any way the Vikings let Sam Bradford go. It's unlikely Bridgewater will be ready to go by the start of the season, and Sam's played better than anyone (but Hitch!) expected in the last few years.

Again, on Garrapollo, we have barely seen enough of him. He played all but two games for the best team and coach in the NFL. He played well, not as well as Brady, but well. That's better than any rookie you're going to find. Better than Kaepernick, but worth taking a flyer on? I'm not so sure.

I would not sign Brian Hoyer to start for any team, unless he's strictly a stop gap temp, like Cutler would be in SF. His arm is stronger than Glennon, probably Taylor and Garappollo too, but he makes way too many mistakes. More than Cutler.

Kaep will find a home in the NFL, but he has so many problems as a QB, I can't see him starting, or even playing. He would make a better WR I think. But I don't think he has the discipline and humility that Terrell Pryor did.

Gabbert is a career backup. I posted a link before about him. He's average in almost everything, though he is somewhat mobile. But that also makes him skittish to escape the pocket. Not as bad as Kaep in this regard, but he's a career backup. Ponder? Why are we talking about that guy at all. I can't believe he's still in the league. Noodle armed version of Gabbert, without the ability to move.

Geno Smith has talent, but may be damaged goods. EJ Manual came out of that same draft, but will only end up a back-up somewhere. Ryan Fitzpatrick should retire. I think he's going to sign somewhere as a BU though, for the cash. Nick Foles had some talent, and size, but he's a BU too.

Curious if the Browns stick with RGIII, and see if Kessler or Hogan develop, or actually take yet another QB high in the draft. They won't at #1, that's for sure. But they have a very fat draft coming up, and are flush with cash, so we'll see what they do.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Taking a look at the names being tossed around...

Kirk, Cousins is maybe a top 10 QB in the NFL, with a very strong arm that can push the ball down the field in chunks, and been fairly durable. He can be pretty accurate, and attempt to (and sometimes succeed) at putting up big numbers carrying his team. But he's also had some bad games, mistakes that cost his team. They were worse early in his career, but still happen. Is he worth $25m a year? Well, no player is, really. And the owners aren't worth billions either. But as costs go, and QB rankings go, he can easily pull in $20m next season, no matter where he goes. It's just a matter of how long the deal is. If I were Washington, I'd roll the dice and try to sign him to less than a 5 year deal. Keep this in mind, in 2016 a full $19m out of his $19m contract was guaranteed. 100%. The only other QB in the league who got that kind of contract was Drew Brees, who throws more than anyone else and is like having a coach on the field, plus headed to the HOF, first ballot. Even Brady and Rodgers didn't get that kind of contract. Almost any long term contract will thus be better than franchising him again and paying $24m, and most if not all of that guaranteed. By the way, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler aren't worth $20m either. Guess what? That's what the market demands.

As to Tyrod Taylor. I posted on him before, he's at an option year, and the Bills are in a bind. The odds of them finding a better QB in the draft are zero. The odds of them getting a better QB through FA, unless Cousins is available, are zero. They have rookie Cardale Jones learning, but he's a project for certain and needs to learn way more about about passing from the pocket. He could be the next Big Ben, or the next Vince Young. It's way too early to tell. I just can't see him starting next season.

As to Jay Cutler, he still has maybe the strongest arm in the NFL, sans maybe Aaron Rodgers. He can make throws other QB's cannot, and doesn't overthrow on short passes. But he also doesn't see the field of play well enough, doesn't move great in the pocket, and makes too many mistakes. He was grossly overpaid in Chicago. If the 49ers for example can sign him to a 2 year deal, or 1 year with options, and it costs them over $15m, I'd do that, thinking he's your transition player, and if he plays more than 2 years and has an amazing late career comeback, great.

I still content the Bears should, and will keep and try to work with Matt Barkley. He had his best season going back to his junior year in college. He made some costly mistakes this season, but his head seems into the game, and his arm better than he ever showed in the NFL. There's a lot of potential upside with him.

Mike Glennon is another wild card here. He could be the next Alex Smith. Mike seems to see the field well and go through transitions very quickly. Not Tom Brady quickly, but very well. He also has a pretty accurate arm short, just like Smith. Alex gets dinged for not having a great arm. I think his arm is average strength, he just lacks deep field accuracy, which is peculiar because he's amazingly accurate short. Brady for example has an average arm, so did Peyton Manning, but both could put the ball 20+ yards down the field on the button when needed. Smith is iffy at this, and I'm not sure Glennon can do it. Smith moves better than I've seen from Glennon though. Still, like Barkley perhaps, I think there's upside with Glennon, on the right team, and right system, to be a starting QB.

I still contend Tony Romo should retire. Carry a clipboard for the Cowboys. But I can also see him easily getting paid another $20m or close to it this year, as the league is starved for quality QBs. He is excellent, when healthy. And would need a top flight OL to protect him to get him through the season. Where's that going to happen? Dallas? Oakland? New England? Those teams already have QB's.

I don't see any way the Vikings let Sam Bradford go. It's unlikely Bridgewater will be ready to go by the start of the season, and Sam's played better than anyone (but Hitch!) expected in the last few years.

Again, on Garrapollo, we have barely seen enough of him. He played all but two games for the best team and coach in the NFL. He played well, not as well as Brady, but well. That's better than any rookie you're going to find. Better than Kaepernick, but worth taking a flyer on? I'm not so sure.

I would not sign Brian Hoyer to start for any team, unless he's strictly a stop gap temp, like Cutler would be in SF. His arm is stronger than Glennon, probably Taylor and Garappollo too, but he makes way too many mistakes. More than Cutler.

Kaep will find a home in the NFL, but he has so many problems as a QB, I can't see him starting, or even playing. He would make a better WR I think. But I don't think he has the discipline and humility that Terrell Pryor did.

Gabbert is a career backup. I posted a link before about him. He's average in almost everything, though he is somewhat mobile. But that also makes him skittish to escape the pocket. Not as bad as Kaep in this regard, but he's a career backup. Ponder? Why are we talking about that guy at all. I can't believe he's still in the league. Noodle armed version of Gabbert, without the ability to move.

Geno Smith has talent, but may be damaged goods. EJ Manual came out of that same draft, but will only end up a back-up somewhere. Ryan Fitzpatrick should retire. I think he's going to sign somewhere as a BU though, for the cash. Nick Foles had some talent, and size, but he's a BU too.

Curious if the Browns stick with RGIII, and see if Kessler or Hogan develop, or actually take yet another QB high in the draft. They won't at #1, that's for sure. But they have a very fat draft coming up, and are flush with cash, so we'll see what they do.

Good summary, agree about Barkley. I guess with the Cousins situation when you see the deals that Ostweiler and Luck received, it puts things in perspective. Luck just needs a team around him and according to some he is getting a raw deal as the Colts are not signing people or building the team around Luck the way they should be. Ostweiler showed glimpses in the playoffs but was let down by his receivers and then his game just fell apart. Brees has an amazing record and continues to do it behind a bad defensive team. Wonder what he would do at Denver or a team where he had much better protection. The Browns always seem to take QBs but like the 49ers they don't want to waste picks on the wrong player but of course the draft is a minefield at the best of times. Glennon is another one that could improve in the right team and system.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I like your physics, D = vm ("v" being velocity or speed), better than F = ma. Offseason focus is always on "bigger, stronger, faster", so wait 20 years, look back, and see how the players have changed. I predict, "WOW" expressions then too. So, "go Safety" (my head trauma prevention focus).

As to Fournette, he's a good kid, really like his attitude, has amazing attributes, and he is #2 overall on some folks' big board. I'm sure he's responsible for many a headache of defenders. But yes, I pity the fool who has to tackle him head on.

But, sorry I'm going to change the direction of that discussion of forces. Fournette, he's not an ankle breaker like Dallas' Zeke Elliot. He is at his best when the gaps are gaping and he can run standing straight up, even though he's had success dropping his shoulder when needed. But he has been injury prone, and many defenses in the NFL play with really good gap responsibility, not allowing much of a running lane. His situation will be an interesting watch. I really would not criticize a team for drafting him high like I would one that drafted a QB high. But the final question each team should ask themselves before drafting a player is, "How durable can we expect this guy to be based on prior injury history?" With Fournette, I'm not sure.

What are you talking about? Most RBs look for gaps and try to get positive yardage - it's called hitting the hole. Fournette hits the holes with amazing acceleration and can dish out some violent hits on LBs & DBs if the situation arises. You need to watch more highlights of him...here he is putting the wood on an Ole Miss DB (I don't think the DB knew if was foot or horseback after that, Lol):

https://youtu.be/D-km8oFX1CE

And here's a short highlight segment of him "ankle breaking" defenders:

https://youtu.be/GsN19V9Ki4k

He's also not injury prone - last year he was bothered by an ankle injury that cost him some games...big deal. Look at his freshman & sophomore seasons - almost 2000 yards rushing in 2015! He also can catch the ball out of the backfield...a trait badly diminishing with RBs these days. He didn't need surgery on the ankle after the season, so I'm assuming he's good to go at the combine. And just missing some games last year due to the ankle injury isn't a significant prior injury history (a guy like Romo is one with a significant injury history & durability issues, Lol). You better sit back and watch this 235 lb monster run some 40s...he could go low 4.3's.

If that ankle injury looks fully healed up & he shines at the combine - look out he's going to go very high in the first rd. A 235 pounder going 4.3 is a gem with that blazing speed! And I remember my old H.S. coach from way back in the 70s telling us that "speed never has a bad day."

3 things I wanted to clear up: 1) what I'm talking about when it comes to gaps and his running style, 2) what I mean by ankle-breaking, and 3) his injuries.

The gap thought
Yes he hits holes hard. Yes he looks for holes in the line and has good vision downfield. I never said he did not. But him seeing and hitting the holes is not what I was talking about. I was referring to the running lanes (or gaps) that his offensive line created, which made it possible for his running style to be lethal if the defense did not get him down before he hit the second level. He had such wide holes he did not have to do much east-west (sideways) running between the tackles. He just ran downhill. Ankle-breaking not required. Look at his highlights in video like the ones you provided. The holes his linemen created were either huge gaping holes or at least wide enough that he got through the hole often untouched. Those are pure, straight downhill runs. That will not be the kind of running lanes he will see in the NFL on a consistent basis because NFL defenses play much more disciplined, gap-responsible defense. The point is, most of his college highlight runs did not require any sideways movement that involves ankle-breaking skill. He was mostly just running downhill. He cuts, yes, but not the ankle-breaking type. The video you provided of him is really cool to watch, but those runs are just downhill running with a cut here or there, causing a defender to miss often times because the defender literally took a bad angle that he took advantage of.
Ankle-Breaking
Let me define what ankle-breaking looks like, to me. RBs running forward who can nearly stop on a dime and then go sideways quickly and with speed are what I call ankle-breakers. They just leave defenders grasping for air. Players who come to mind who have/had that ability: Barry Sanders, Walter Peyton, Marshaun Lynch, Zeke Elliot, even Seattle's undrafted free agent RB Tom Rawls (who can and has literally changed directions by going full ahead, stop and hop sideways through a hole).
Injury bug?
My statement he's injury prone was not the best wording. True there. And, I'll give you that ankle injuries are not normally as bad as knee injuries, but they can be. All I am going off is this article (link below), and the fact an early season ankle injury of little consequence should have been cleared up by the time his team played their bowl game, which he skipped to give his ankle "rest". I presume he skipped the bowl game so he would not injury it worse before the NFL combine currently in progress.
link - https://www.seccountry.com/lsu/source-lsu-rb-leonard-fournettes-ankle-injury-a-chronic-problem.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re: Re:

Taking a look at the names being tossed around...

Kirk, Cousins is maybe a top 10 QB in the NFL, with a very strong arm that can push the ball down the field in chunks, and been fairly durable. He can be pretty accurate, and attempt to (and sometimes succeed) at putting up big numbers carrying his team. But he's also had some bad games, mistakes that cost his team. They were worse early in his career, but still happen. Is he worth $25m a year? Well, no player is, really. And the owners aren't worth billions either. But as costs go, and QB rankings go, he can easily pull in $20m next season, no matter where he goes. It's just a matter of how long the deal is. If I were Washington, I'd roll the dice and try to sign him to less than a 5 year deal. Keep this in mind, in 2016 a full $19m out of his $19m contract was guaranteed. 100%. The only other QB in the league who got that kind of contract was Drew Brees, who throws more than anyone else and is like having a coach on the field, plus headed to the HOF, first ballot. Even Brady and Rodgers didn't get that kind of contract. Almost any long term contract will thus be better than franchising him again and paying $24m, and most if not all of that guaranteed. By the way, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler aren't worth $20m either. Guess what? That's what the market demands.

As to Tyrod Taylor. I posted on him before, he's at an option year, and the Bills are in a bind. The odds of them finding a better QB in the draft are zero. The odds of them getting a better QB through FA, unless Cousins is available, are zero. They have rookie Cardale Jones learning, but he's a project for certain and needs to learn way more about about passing from the pocket. He could be the next Big Ben, or the next Vince Young. It's way too early to tell. I just can't see him starting next season.

As to Jay Cutler, he still has maybe the strongest arm in the NFL, sans maybe Aaron Rodgers. He can make throws other QB's cannot, and doesn't overthrow on short passes. But he also doesn't see the field of play well enough, doesn't move great in the pocket, and makes too many mistakes. He was grossly overpaid in Chicago. If the 49ers for example can sign him to a 2 year deal, or 1 year with options, and it costs them over $15m, I'd do that, thinking he's your transition player, and if he plays more than 2 years and has an amazing late career comeback, great.

I still content the Bears should, and will keep and try to work with Matt Barkley. He had his best season going back to his junior year in college. He made some costly mistakes this season, but his head seems into the game, and his arm better than he ever showed in the NFL. There's a lot of potential upside with him.

Mike Glennon is another wild card here. He could be the next Alex Smith. Mike seems to see the field well and go through transitions very quickly. Not Tom Brady quickly, but very well. He also has a pretty accurate arm short, just like Smith. Alex gets dinged for not having a great arm. I think his arm is average strength, he just lacks deep field accuracy, which is peculiar because he's amazingly accurate short. Brady for example has an average arm, so did Peyton Manning, but both could put the ball 20+ yards down the field on the button when needed. Smith is iffy at this, and I'm not sure Glennon can do it. Smith moves better than I've seen from Glennon though. Still, like Barkley perhaps, I think there's upside with Glennon, on the right team, and right system, to be a starting QB.

I still contend Tony Romo should retire. Carry a clipboard for the Cowboys. But I can also see him easily getting paid another $20m or close to it this year, as the league is starved for quality QBs. He is excellent, when healthy. And would need a top flight OL to protect him to get him through the season. Where's that going to happen? Dallas? Oakland? New England? Those teams already have QB's.

I don't see any way the Vikings let Sam Bradford go. It's unlikely Bridgewater will be ready to go by the start of the season, and Sam's played better than anyone (but Hitch!) expected in the last few years.

Again, on Garrapollo, we have barely seen enough of him. He played all but two games for the best team and coach in the NFL. He played well, not as well as Brady, but well. That's better than any rookie you're going to find. Better than Kaepernick, but worth taking a flyer on? I'm not so sure.

I would not sign Brian Hoyer to start for any team, unless he's strictly a stop gap temp, like Cutler would be in SF. His arm is stronger than Glennon, probably Taylor and Garappollo too, but he makes way too many mistakes. More than Cutler.

Kaep will find a home in the NFL, but he has so many problems as a QB, I can't see him starting, or even playing. He would make a better WR I think. But I don't think he has the discipline and humility that Terrell Pryor did.

Gabbert is a career backup. I posted a link before about him. He's average in almost everything, though he is somewhat mobile. But that also makes him skittish to escape the pocket. Not as bad as Kaep in this regard, but he's a career backup. Ponder? Why are we talking about that guy at all. I can't believe he's still in the league. Noodle armed version of Gabbert, without the ability to move.

Geno Smith has talent, but may be damaged goods. EJ Manual came out of that same draft, but will only end up a back-up somewhere. Ryan Fitzpatrick should retire. I think he's going to sign somewhere as a BU though, for the cash. Nick Foles had some talent, and size, but he's a BU too.

Curious if the Browns stick with RGIII, and see if Kessler or Hogan develop, or actually take yet another QB high in the draft. They won't at #1, that's for sure. But they have a very fat draft coming up, and are flush with cash, so we'll see what they do.

Good summary, agree about Barkley. I guess with the Cousins situation when you see the deals that Ostweiler and Luck received, it puts things in perspective. Luck just needs a team around him and the according to some he is getting a raw deal as the Colts are not signing people or building the team around Luck the way they should be. Ostweiler showed glimpses in the playoffs but was let down by his receivers and then his game just fell apart. Brees has an amazing record and continues to do it behind a bad defensive team. Wonder what he would do at Denver or a team where he had much better protection. The Browns always seem to take QBs but like the 49ers they don't want to waste picks on the wrong player but of course the draft is a minefield at the best of times. Glennon is another one that could improve in the right team and system.

Good points by both of you. As for the Vikes, if the rumor is true that Teddy Bridgewater will miss the entire 2017 season, Sam Bradford will remain a Viking next year.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Taking a look at the names being tossed around...

Kirk, Cousins is maybe a top 10 QB in the NFL, with a very strong arm that can push the ball down the field in chunks, and been fairly durable. He can be pretty accurate, and attempt to (and sometimes succeed) at putting up big numbers carrying his team. But he's also had some bad games, mistakes that cost his team. They were worse early in his career, but still happen. Is he worth $25m a year? Well, no player is, really. And the owners aren't worth billions either. But as costs go, and QB rankings go, he can easily pull in $20m next season, no matter where he goes. It's just a matter of how long the deal is. If I were Washington, I'd roll the dice and try to sign him to less than a 5 year deal. Keep this in mind, in 2016 a full $19m out of his $19m contract was guaranteed. 100%. The only other QB in the league who got that kind of contract was Drew Brees, who throws more than anyone else and is like having a coach on the field, plus headed to the HOF, first ballot. Even Brady and Rodgers didn't get that kind of contract. Almost any long term contract will thus be better than franchising him again and paying $24m, and most if not all of that guaranteed. By the way, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler aren't worth $20m either. Guess what? That's what the market demands.

As to Tyrod Taylor. I posted on him before, he's at an option year, and the Bills are in a bind. The odds of them finding a better QB in the draft are zero. The odds of them getting a better QB through FA, unless Cousins is available, are zero. They have rookie Cardale Jones learning, but he's a project for certain and needs to learn way more about about passing from the pocket. He could be the next Big Ben, or the next Vince Young. It's way too early to tell. I just can't see him starting next season.

As to Jay Cutler, he still has maybe the strongest arm in the NFL, sans maybe Aaron Rodgers. He can make throws other QB's cannot, and doesn't overthrow on short passes. But he also doesn't see the field of play well enough, doesn't move great in the pocket, and makes too many mistakes. He was grossly overpaid in Chicago. If the 49ers for example can sign him to a 2 year deal, or 1 year with options, and it costs them over $15m, I'd do that, thinking he's your transition player, and if he plays more than 2 years and has an amazing late career comeback, great.

I still content the Bears should, and will keep and try to work with Matt Barkley. He had his best season going back to his junior year in college. He made some costly mistakes this season, but his head seems into the game, and his arm better than he ever showed in the NFL. There's a lot of potential upside with him.

Mike Glennon is another wild card here. He could be the next Alex Smith. Mike seems to see the field well and go through transitions very quickly. Not Tom Brady quickly, but very well. He also has a pretty accurate arm short, just like Smith. Alex gets dinged for not having a great arm. I think his arm is average strength, he just lacks deep field accuracy, which is peculiar because he's amazingly accurate short. Brady for example has an average arm, so did Peyton Manning, but both could put the ball 20+ yards down the field on the button when needed. Smith is iffy at this, and I'm not sure Glennon can do it. Smith moves better than I've seen from Glennon though. Still, like Barkley perhaps, I think there's upside with Glennon, on the right team, and right system, to be a starting QB.

I still contend Tony Romo should retire. Carry a clipboard for the Cowboys. But I can also see him easily getting paid another $20m or close to it this year, as the league is starved for quality QBs. He is excellent, when healthy. And would need a top flight OL to protect him to get him through the season. Where's that going to happen? Dallas? Oakland? New England? Those teams already have QB's.

I don't see any way the Vikings let Sam Bradford go. It's unlikely Bridgewater will be ready to go by the start of the season, and Sam's played better than anyone (but Hitch!) expected in the last few years.

Again, on Garrapollo, we have barely seen enough of him. He played all but two games for the best team and coach in the NFL. He played well, not as well as Brady, but well. That's better than any rookie you're going to find. Better than Kaepernick, but worth taking a flyer on? I'm not so sure.

I would not sign Brian Hoyer to start for any team, unless he's strictly a stop gap temp, like Cutler would be in SF. His arm is stronger than Glennon, probably Taylor and Garappollo too, but he makes way too many mistakes. More than Cutler.

Kaep will find a home in the NFL, but he has so many problems as a QB, I can't see him starting, or even playing. He would make a better WR I think. But I don't think he has the discipline and humility that Terrell Pryor did.

Gabbert is a career backup. I posted a link before about him. He's average in almost everything, though he is somewhat mobile. But that also makes him skittish to escape the pocket. Not as bad as Kaep in this regard, but he's a career backup. Ponder? Why are we talking about that guy at all. I can't believe he's still in the league. Noodle armed version of Gabbert, without the ability to move.

Geno Smith has talent, but may be damaged goods. EJ Manual came out of that same draft, but will only end up a back-up somewhere. Ryan Fitzpatrick should retire. I think he's going to sign somewhere as a BU though, for the cash. Nick Foles had some talent, and size, but he's a BU too.

Curious if the Browns stick with RGIII, and see if Kessler or Hogan develop, or actually take yet another QB high in the draft. They won't at #1, that's for sure. But they have a very fat draft coming up, and are flush with cash, so we'll see what they do.

Good summary, agree about Barkley. I guess with the Cousins situation when you see the deals that Ostweiler and Luck received, it puts things in perspective. Luck just needs a team around him and the according to some he is getting a raw deal as the Colts are not signing people or building the team around Luck the way they should be. Ostweiler showed glimpses in the playoffs but was let down by his receivers and then his game just fell apart. Brees has an amazing record and continues to do it behind a bad defensive team. Wonder what he would do at Denver or a team where he had much better protection. The Browns always seem to take QBs but like the 49ers they don't want to waste picks on the wrong player but of course the draft is a minefield at the best of times. Glennon is another one that could improve in the right team and system.

Good points by both of you. As for the Vikes, if the rumor is true that Teddy Bridgewater will miss the entire 2017 season, Sam Bradford will remain a Viking next year.

The last I heard about Bridgewater the injury is going to take longer than expected to heal. I think the Vikings would be pretty happy with Bradford but they were one of the teams that took a hammering with injuries after a great start to the previous season. Their defense was outstanding but then it went pear shaped plus they had some other controversy with players not following the coach's instructions. If those players were at the Patriots then they would no longer be at the Patriots !

 

[Nomad]

Re:

Taking a look at the names being tossed around...

Kirk, Cousins is maybe a top 10 QB in the NFL, with a very strong arm that can push the ball down the field in chunks, and been fairly durable. He can be pretty accurate, and attempt to (and sometimes succeed) at putting up big numbers carrying his team. But he's also had some bad games, mistakes that cost his team. They were worse early in his career, but still happen. Is he worth $25m a year? Well, no player is, really. And the owners aren't worth billions either. But as costs go, and QB rankings go, he can easily pull in $20m next season, no matter where he goes. It's just a matter of how long the deal is. If I were Washington, I'd roll the dice and try to sign him to less than a 5 year deal. Keep this in mind, in 2016 a full $19m out of his $19m contract was guaranteed. 100%. The only other QB in the league who got that kind of contract was Drew Brees, who throws more than anyone else and is like having a coach on the field, plus headed to the HOF, first ballot. Even Brady and Rodgers didn't get that kind of contract. Almost any long term contract will thus be better than franchising him again and paying $24m, and most if not all of that guaranteed. By the way, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler aren't worth $20m either. Guess what? That's what the market demands.

As to Tyrod Taylor. I posted on him before, he's at an option year, and the Bills are in a bind. The odds of them finding a better QB in the draft are zero. The odds of them getting a better QB through FA, unless Cousins is available, are zero. They have rookie Cardale Jones learning, but he's a project for certain and needs to learn way more about about passing from the pocket. He could be the next Big Ben, or the next Vince Young. It's way too early to tell. I just can't see him starting next season.

As to Jay Cutler, he still has maybe the strongest arm in the NFL, sans maybe Aaron Rodgers. He can make throws other QB's cannot, and doesn't overthrow on short passes. But he also doesn't see the field of play well enough, doesn't move great in the pocket, and makes too many mistakes. He was grossly overpaid in Chicago. If the 49ers for example can sign him to a 2 year deal, or 1 year with options, and it costs them over $15m, I'd do that, thinking he's your transition player, and if he plays more than 2 years and has an amazing late career comeback, great.

I still content the Bears should, and will keep and try to work with Matt Barkley. He had his best season going back to his junior year in college. He made some costly mistakes this season, but his head seems into the game, and his arm better than he ever showed in the NFL. There's a lot of potential upside with him.

Mike Glennon is another wild card here. He could be the next Alex Smith. Mike seems to see the field well and go through transitions very quickly. Not Tom Brady quickly, but very well. He also has a pretty accurate arm short, just like Smith. Alex gets dinged for not having a great arm. I think his arm is average strength, he just lacks deep field accuracy, which is peculiar because he's amazingly accurate short. Brady for example has an average arm, so did Peyton Manning, but both could put the ball 20+ yards down the field on the button when needed. Smith is iffy at this, and I'm not sure Glennon can do it. Smith moves better than I've seen from Glennon though. Still, like Barkley perhaps, I think there's upside with Glennon, on the right team, and right system, to be a starting QB.

I still contend Tony Romo should retire. Carry a clipboard for the Cowboys. But I can also see him easily getting paid another $20m or close to it this year, as the league is starved for quality QBs. He is excellent, when healthy. And would need a top flight OL to protect him to get him through the season. Where's that going to happen? Dallas? Oakland? New England? Those teams already have QB's.

I don't see any way the Vikings let Sam Bradford go. It's unlikely Bridgewater will be ready to go by the start of the season, and Sam's played better than anyone (but Hitch!) expected in the last few years.

Again, on Garrapollo, we have barely seen enough of him. He played all but two games for the best team and coach in the NFL. He played well, not as well as Brady, but well. That's better than any rookie you're going to find. Better than Kaepernick, but worth taking a flyer on? I'm not so sure.

I would not sign Brian Hoyer to start for any team, unless he's strictly a stop gap temp, like Cutler would be in SF. His arm is stronger than Glennon, probably Taylor and Garappollo too, but he makes way too many mistakes. More than Cutler.

Kaep will find a home in the NFL, but he has so many problems as a QB, I can't see him starting, or even playing. He would make a better WR I think. But I don't think he has the discipline and humility that Terrell Pryor did.

Gabbert is a career backup. I posted a link before about him. He's average in almost everything, though he is somewhat mobile. But that also makes him skittish to escape the pocket. Not as bad as Kaep in this regard, but he's a career backup. Ponder? Why are we talking about that guy at all. I can't believe he's still in the league. Noodle armed version of Gabbert, without the ability to move.

Geno Smith has talent, but may be damaged goods. EJ Manual came out of that same draft, but will only end up a back-up somewhere. Ryan Fitzpatrick should retire. I think he's going to sign somewhere as a BU though, for the cash. Nick Foles had some talent, and size, but he's a BU too.

Curious if the Browns stick with RGIII, and see if Kessler or Hogan develop, or actually take yet another QB high in the draft. They won't at #1, that's for sure. But they have a very fat draft coming up, and are flush with cash, so we'll see what they do.

Nice list, but things have changed considerably since you posted this. Forget about Kirk "You like that!" Cousins - he's staying a beloved patriot as the "exclusive" FT was slapped on him:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000788320/article/redskins-put-exclusive-franchise-tag-on-kirk-cousins

And things are buzzing here in Bronco land with VJ wanting to acquire a veteran QB while the development project continues with Lynch. Speculation is that Elway's interested in Romo:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/sports/broncos/broncos-vance-joseph-remains-open-minded-about-veteran-quarterback

Those are the facts, and to some speculation floating around: Garoppolo is staying at NE, Keap wants out of SF (imagine that, Lol) and Cutler's not interested in SF.

I'm predicting SF is going to take a QB with that 2nd overall. They're pretty much going to have first choice with either Trubisky, Kiser or Watson. I'm sure after these guys show their stuff at the combine, they'll have a better idea of who they want.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Taking a look at the names being tossed around...

Kirk, Cousins is maybe a top 10 QB in the NFL, with a very strong arm that can push the ball down the field in chunks, and been fairly durable. He can be pretty accurate, and attempt to (and sometimes succeed) at putting up big numbers carrying his team. But he's also had some bad games, mistakes that cost his team. They were worse early in his career, but still happen. Is he worth $25m a year? Well, no player is, really. And the owners aren't worth billions either. But as costs go, and QB rankings go, he can easily pull in $20m next season, no matter where he goes. It's just a matter of how long the deal is. If I were Washington, I'd roll the dice and try to sign him to less than a 5 year deal. Keep this in mind, in 2016 a full $19m out of his $19m contract was guaranteed. 100%. The only other QB in the league who got that kind of contract was Drew Brees, who throws more than anyone else and is like having a coach on the field, plus headed to the HOF, first ballot. Even Brady and Rodgers didn't get that kind of contract. Almost any long term contract will thus be better than franchising him again and paying $24m, and most if not all of that guaranteed. By the way, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler aren't worth $20m either. Guess what? That's what the market demands.

As to Tyrod Taylor. I posted on him before, he's at an option year, and the Bills are in a bind. The odds of them finding a better QB in the draft are zero. The odds of them getting a better QB through FA, unless Cousins is available, are zero. They have rookie Cardale Jones learning, but he's a project for certain and needs to learn way more about about passing from the pocket. He could be the next Big Ben, or the next Vince Young. It's way too early to tell. I just can't see him starting next season.

As to Jay Cutler, he still has maybe the strongest arm in the NFL, sans maybe Aaron Rodgers. He can make throws other QB's cannot, and doesn't overthrow on short passes. But he also doesn't see the field of play well enough, doesn't move great in the pocket, and makes too many mistakes. He was grossly overpaid in Chicago. If the 49ers for example can sign him to a 2 year deal, or 1 year with options, and it costs them over $15m, I'd do that, thinking he's your transition player, and if he plays more than 2 years and has an amazing late career comeback, great.

I still content the Bears should, and will keep and try to work with Matt Barkley. He had his best season going back to his junior year in college. He made some costly mistakes this season, but his head seems into the game, and his arm better than he ever showed in the NFL. There's a lot of potential upside with him.

Mike Glennon is another wild card here. He could be the next Alex Smith. Mike seems to see the field well and go through transitions very quickly. Not Tom Brady quickly, but very well. He also has a pretty accurate arm short, just like Smith. Alex gets dinged for not having a great arm. I think his arm is average strength, he just lacks deep field accuracy, which is peculiar because he's amazingly accurate short. Brady for example has an average arm, so did Peyton Manning, but both could put the ball 20+ yards down the field on the button when needed. Smith is iffy at this, and I'm not sure Glennon can do it. Smith moves better than I've seen from Glennon though. Still, like Barkley perhaps, I think there's upside with Glennon, on the right team, and right system, to be a starting QB.

I still contend Tony Romo should retire. Carry a clipboard for the Cowboys. But I can also see him easily getting paid another $20m or close to it this year, as the league is starved for quality QBs. He is excellent, when healthy. And would need a top flight OL to protect him to get him through the season. Where's that going to happen? Dallas? Oakland? New England? Those teams already have QB's.

I don't see any way the Vikings let Sam Bradford go. It's unlikely Bridgewater will be ready to go by the start of the season, and Sam's played better than anyone (but Hitch!) expected in the last few years.

Again, on Garrapollo, we have barely seen enough of him. He played all but two games for the best team and coach in the NFL. He played well, not as well as Brady, but well. That's better than any rookie you're going to find. Better than Kaepernick, but worth taking a flyer on? I'm not so sure.

I would not sign Brian Hoyer to start for any team, unless he's strictly a stop gap temp, like Cutler would be in SF. His arm is stronger than Glennon, probably Taylor and Garappollo too, but he makes way too many mistakes. More than Cutler.

Kaep will find a home in the NFL, but he has so many problems as a QB, I can't see him starting, or even playing. He would make a better WR I think. But I don't think he has the discipline and humility that Terrell Pryor did.

Gabbert is a career backup. I posted a link before about him. He's average in almost everything, though he is somewhat mobile. But that also makes him skittish to escape the pocket. Not as bad as Kaep in this regard, but he's a career backup. Ponder? Why are we talking about that guy at all. I can't believe he's still in the league. Noodle armed version of Gabbert, without the ability to move.

Geno Smith has talent, but may be damaged goods. EJ Manual came out of that same draft, but will only end up a back-up somewhere. Ryan Fitzpatrick should retire. I think he's going to sign somewhere as a BU though, for the cash. Nick Foles had some talent, and size, but he's a BU too.

Curious if the Browns stick with RGIII, and see if Kessler or Hogan develop, or actually take yet another QB high in the draft. They won't at #1, that's for sure. But they have a very fat draft coming up, and are flush with cash, so we'll see what they do.

Nice list, but things have changed considerably since you posted this. Forget about Kirk "You like that!" Cousins - he's staying a beloved patriot as the "exclusive" FT was slapped on him:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000788320/article/redskins-put-exclusive-franchise-tag-on-kirk-cousins

And things are buzzing here in Bronco land with VJ wanting to acquire a veteran QB while the development project continues with Lynch. Speculation is that Elway's interested in Romo:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/sports/broncos/broncos-vance-joseph-remains-open-minded-about-veteran-quarterback

Those are the facts, and to some speculation floating around: Garoppolo is staying at NE, Keap wants out of SF (imagine that, Lol) and Cutler's not interested in SF.

I'm predicting SF is going to take a QB with that 2nd overall. They're pretty much going to have first choice with either Trubisky, Kiser or Watson. I'm sure after these guys show their stuff at the combine, they'll have a better idea of who they want.

Yeah I think the odds were in the favor of Cousins staying put. As for Garoppolo some people seem to think that the Patriots are playing games and they will trade him if the right deal comes along. I agree that the 49ers will have to take a QB in the early rounds as their remaining QBs are free agents and back ups at best. I still think Kaep is a chance to go to the Jets where a bunch of mediocre QBs will battle it out. Be interesting to see if Chicago still go after Garoppolo. The Browns will probably stick with RGIII and take a QB in the early rounds of the draft, their only competition will probably be from the 49ers and maybe the Jets if they intend to cut some of their QBs, most other teams will look at other positions. I think if Romo goes anywhere it will be Denver. Really Tyrod Taylor is the only other starting QB there is a question mark about and Cutler. Some of the free agents will miss out but might get picked up later when injuries occur. Hoyer should find a back up spot.

 

[Nomad]

Re: Re:

Taking a look at the names being tossed around...

Kirk, Cousins is maybe a top 10 QB in the NFL, with a very strong arm that can push the ball down the field in chunks, and been fairly durable. He can be pretty accurate, and attempt to (and sometimes succeed) at putting up big numbers carrying his team. But he's also had some bad games, mistakes that cost his team. They were worse early in his career, but still happen. Is he worth $25m a year? Well, no player is, really. And the owners aren't worth billions either. But as costs go, and QB rankings go, he can easily pull in $20m next season, no matter where he goes. It's just a matter of how long the deal is. If I were Washington, I'd roll the dice and try to sign him to less than a 5 year deal. Keep this in mind, in 2016 a full $19m out of his $19m contract was guaranteed. 100%. The only other QB in the league who got that kind of contract was Drew Brees, who throws more than anyone else and is like having a coach on the field, plus headed to the HOF, first ballot. Even Brady and Rodgers didn't get that kind of contract. Almost any long term contract will thus be better than franchising him again and paying $24m, and most if not all of that guaranteed. By the way, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler aren't worth $20m either. Guess what? That's what the market demands.

As to Tyrod Taylor. I posted on him before, he's at an option year, and the Bills are in a bind. The odds of them finding a better QB in the draft are zero. The odds of them getting a better QB through FA, unless Cousins is available, are zero. They have rookie Cardale Jones learning, but he's a project for certain and needs to learn way more about about passing from the pocket. He could be the next Big Ben, or the next Vince Young. It's way too early to tell. I just can't see him starting next season.

As to Jay Cutler, he still has maybe the strongest arm in the NFL, sans maybe Aaron Rodgers. He can make throws other QB's cannot, and doesn't overthrow on short passes. But he also doesn't see the field of play well enough, doesn't move great in the pocket, and makes too many mistakes. He was grossly overpaid in Chicago. If the 49ers for example can sign him to a 2 year deal, or 1 year with options, and it costs them over $15m, I'd do that, thinking he's your transition player, and if he plays more than 2 years and has an amazing late career comeback, great.

I still content the Bears should, and will keep and try to work with Matt Barkley. He had his best season going back to his junior year in college. He made some costly mistakes this season, but his head seems into the game, and his arm better than he ever showed in the NFL. There's a lot of potential upside with him.

Mike Glennon is another wild card here. He could be the next Alex Smith. Mike seems to see the field well and go through transitions very quickly. Not Tom Brady quickly, but very well. He also has a pretty accurate arm short, just like Smith. Alex gets dinged for not having a great arm. I think his arm is average strength, he just lacks deep field accuracy, which is peculiar because he's amazingly accurate short. Brady for example has an average arm, so did Peyton Manning, but both could put the ball 20+ yards down the field on the button when needed. Smith is iffy at this, and I'm not sure Glennon can do it. Smith moves better than I've seen from Glennon though. Still, like Barkley perhaps, I think there's upside with Glennon, on the right team, and right system, to be a starting QB.

I still contend Tony Romo should retire. Carry a clipboard for the Cowboys. But I can also see him easily getting paid another $20m or close to it this year, as the league is starved for quality QBs. He is excellent, when healthy. And would need a top flight OL to protect him to get him through the season. Where's that going to happen? Dallas? Oakland? New England? Those teams already have QB's.

I don't see any way the Vikings let Sam Bradford go. It's unlikely Bridgewater will be ready to go by the start of the season, and Sam's played better than anyone (but Hitch!) expected in the last few years.

Again, on Garrapollo, we have barely seen enough of him. He played all but two games for the best team and coach in the NFL. He played well, not as well as Brady, but well. That's better than any rookie you're going to find. Better than Kaepernick, but worth taking a flyer on? I'm not so sure.

I would not sign Brian Hoyer to start for any team, unless he's strictly a stop gap temp, like Cutler would be in SF. His arm is stronger than Glennon, probably Taylor and Garappollo too, but he makes way too many mistakes. More than Cutler.

Kaep will find a home in the NFL, but he has so many problems as a QB, I can't see him starting, or even playing. He would make a better WR I think. But I don't think he has the discipline and humility that Terrell Pryor did.

Gabbert is a career backup. I posted a link before about him. He's average in almost everything, though he is somewhat mobile. But that also makes him skittish to escape the pocket. Not as bad as Kaep in this regard, but he's a career backup. Ponder? Why are we talking about that guy at all. I can't believe he's still in the league. Noodle armed version of Gabbert, without the ability to move.

Geno Smith has talent, but may be damaged goods. EJ Manual came out of that same draft, but will only end up a back-up somewhere. Ryan Fitzpatrick should retire. I think he's going to sign somewhere as a BU though, for the cash. Nick Foles had some talent, and size, but he's a BU too.

Curious if the Browns stick with RGIII, and see if Kessler or Hogan develop, or actually take yet another QB high in the draft. They won't at #1, that's for sure. But they have a very fat draft coming up, and are flush with cash, so we'll see what they do.

Nice list, but things have changed considerably since you posted this. Forget about Kirk "You like that!" Cousins - he's staying a beloved patriot as the "exclusive" FT was slapped on him:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000788320/article/redskins-put-exclusive-franchise-tag-on-kirk-cousins

And things are buzzing here in Bronco land with VJ wanting to acquire a veteran QB while the development project continues with Lynch. Speculation is that Elway's interested in Romo:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/sports/broncos/broncos-vance-joseph-remains-open-minded-about-veteran-quarterback

Those are the facts, and to some speculation floating around: Garoppolo is staying at NE, Keap wants out of SF (imagine that, Lol) and Cutler's not interested in SF.

I'm predicting SF is going to take a QB with that 2nd overall. They're pretty much going to have first choice with either Trubisky, Kiser or Watson. I'm sure after these guys show their stuff at the combine, they'll have a better idea of who they want.

Yeah I think the odds were in the favor of Cousins staying put. As for Garoppolo some people seem to think that the Patriots are playing games and they will trade him if the right deal comes along. I agree that the 49ers will have to take a QB in the early rounds as their remaining QBs are free agents and back ups at best. I still think Kaep is a chance to go to the Jets where a bunch of mediocre QBs will battle it out. Be interesting to see if Chicago still go after Garoppolo. The Browns will probably stick with RGIII and take a QB in the early rounds of the draft, their only competition will probably be from the 49ers and maybe the Jets if they intend to cut some of their QBs, most other teams will look at other positions. I think if Romo goes anywhere it will be Denver. Really Tyrod Taylor is the only other starting QB there is a question mark about and Cutler. Some of the free agents will miss out but might get picked up later when injuries occur. Hoyer should find a back up spot.

Good information from inside sources that JG is going to stay put in NE:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/buzz-is-building-that-the-patriots-might-not-trade-jimmy-garoppolo-at-all/

I agree that the Browns will probably stick with RGIII, but you gotta wonder how much longer his body can hold up. He played in only 5 games last year with that shoulder injury, and he also has that twice-surgically repaired knee to be concerned with. I watched him a lot at Baylor - he was electrifying. Sadly, he might end up with an injury shortened career when all is said and done. Hard to believe he was the 2nd overall pick right behind Luck.

 

[Nomad]

I like your physics, D = vm ("v" being velocity or speed), better than F = ma. Offseason focus is always on "bigger, stronger, faster", so wait 20 years, look back, and see how the players have changed. I predict, "WOW" expressions then too. So, "go Safety" (my head trauma prevention focus).

As to Fournette, he's a good kid, really like his attitude, has amazing attributes, and he is #2 overall on some folks' big board. I'm sure he's responsible for many a headache of defenders. But yes, I pity the fool who has to tackle him head on.

But, sorry I'm going to change the direction of that discussion of forces. Fournette, he's not an ankle breaker like Dallas' Zeke Elliot. He is at his best when the gaps are gaping and he can run standing straight up, even though he's had success dropping his shoulder when needed. But he has been injury prone, and many defenses in the NFL play with really good gap responsibility, not allowing much of a running lane. His situation will be an interesting watch. I really would not criticize a team for drafting him high like I would one that drafted a QB high. But the final question each team should ask themselves before drafting a player is, "How durable can we expect this guy to be based on prior injury history?" With Fournette, I'm not sure.

What are you talking about? Most RBs look for gaps and try to get positive yardage - it's called hitting the hole. Fournette hits the holes with amazing acceleration and can dish out some violent hits on LBs & DBs if the situation arises. You need to watch more highlights of him...here he is putting the wood on an Ole Miss DB (I don't think the DB knew if was foot or horseback after that, Lol):

https://youtu.be/D-km8oFX1CE

And here's a short highlight segment of him "ankle breaking" defenders:

https://youtu.be/GsN19V9Ki4k

He's also not injury prone - last year he was bothered by an ankle injury that cost him some games...big deal. Look at his freshman & sophomore seasons - almost 2000 yards rushing in 2015! He also can catch the ball out of the backfield...a trait badly diminishing with RBs these days. He didn't need surgery on the ankle after the season, so I'm assuming he's good to go at the combine. And just missing some games last year due to the ankle injury isn't a significant prior injury history (a guy like Romo is one with a significant injury history & durability issues, Lol). You better sit back and watch this 235 lb monster run some 40s...he could go low 4.3's.

If that ankle injury looks fully healed up & he shines at the combine - look out he's going to go very high in the first rd. A 235 pounder going 4.3 is a gem with that blazing speed! And I remember my old H.S. coach from way back in the 70s telling us that "speed never has a bad day."

3 things I wanted to clear up: 1) what I'm talking about when it comes to gaps and his running style, 2) what I mean by ankle-breaking, and 3) his injuries.

The gap thought
Yes he hits holes hard. Yes he looks for holes in the line and has good vision downfield. I never said he did not. But him seeing and hitting the holes is not what I was talking about. I was referring to the running lanes (or gaps) that his offensive line created, which made it possible for his running style to be lethal if the defense did not get him down before he hit the second level. He had such wide holes he did not have to do much east-west (sideways) running between the tackles. He just ran downhill. Ankle-breaking not required. Look at his highlights in video like the ones you provided. The holes his linemen created were either huge gaping holes or at least wide enough that he got through the hole often untouched. Those are pure, straight downhill runs. That will not be the kind of running lanes he will see in the NFL on a consistent basis because NFL defenses play much more disciplined, gap-responsible defense. The point is, most of his college highlight runs did not require any sideways movement that involves ankle-breaking skill. He was mostly just running downhill. He cuts, yes, but not the ankle-breaking type. The video you provided of him is really cool to watch, but those runs are just downhill running with a cut here or there, causing a defender to miss often times because the defender literally took a bad angle that he took advantage of.
Ankle-Breaking
Let me define what ankle-breaking looks like, to me. RBs running forward who can nearly stop on a dime and then go sideways quickly and with speed are what I call ankle-breakers. They just leave defenders grasping for air. Players who come to mind who have/had that ability: Barry Sanders, Walter Peyton, Marshaun Lynch, Zeke Elliot, even Seattle's undrafted free agent RB Tom Rawls (who can and has literally changed directions by going full ahead, stop and hop sideways through a hole).
Injury bug?
My statement he's injury prone was not the best wording. True there. And, I'll give you that ankle injuries are not normally as bad as knee injuries, but they can be. All I am going off is this article (link below), and the fact an early season ankle injury of little consequence should have been cleared up by the time his team played their bowl game, which he skipped to give his ankle "rest". I presume he skipped the bowl game so he would not injury it worse before the NFL combine currently in progress.
link - https://www.seccountry.com/lsu/source-lsu-rb-leonard-fournettes-ankle-injury-a-chronic-problem.

You're wrong on point's #'s 1 & 2. Yes, that was a fun to watch highlight segment of him. However, there's a film study (not highlight reel) of him displaying the traits that you're talking about, i.e., sideways running, creating running lanes, spin moves, shedding tackles behind the line of scrimmage, and so forth. In fact, in this 15 min film study he's being compared to Elliott and Shady McCoy in those attributes of quickness and the ability to change direction. His blocking & pass catching skills are also examined (sit back and be amazed):

https://youtu.be/o-NpUtaSO_I

"Ankle-breaking?" Again, watch the film study and you'll see plenty of ankle breaking. In fact, on one play he jukes a DB so bad - it looks like he broke his ankle. Lol. And again, Fournette's being compared to Elliott in his ability to stop on a dime and leave defenders gasping for air, as you say.

Bottom line: This monster of a RB is diversified; size, strength, blazing speed, agility, quickness...similar traits of the legendary Bo Jackson. The experts have his projected draft status easily at top-5, some as high as top-3. This is higher than Gurley (10) and Peterson (7), and right along the lines of Elliott last year (4). The only negative thing is that the general consensus right now is he's going to be grabbed with the 4th pick by Jacksonville (ugh).

On point #3; the ankle injury. We know he didn't have off-season surgery, so that's a good sign. And like you mentioned, he skipped the bowl game presumably to avoid further aggravation and get it fully rehabbed in time for the combine. And at the combine, I'm sure his ankle will get full attention by the medical personnel as to the status. Running backs are set to show their stuff this Friday.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Taking a look at the names being tossed around...

Kirk, Cousins is maybe a top 10 QB in the NFL, with a very strong arm that can push the ball down the field in chunks, and been fairly durable. He can be pretty accurate, and attempt to (and sometimes succeed) at putting up big numbers carrying his team. But he's also had some bad games, mistakes that cost his team. They were worse early in his career, but still happen. Is he worth $25m a year? Well, no player is, really. And the owners aren't worth billions either. But as costs go, and QB rankings go, he can easily pull in $20m next season, no matter where he goes. It's just a matter of how long the deal is. If I were Washington, I'd roll the dice and try to sign him to less than a 5 year deal. Keep this in mind, in 2016 a full $19m out of his $19m contract was guaranteed. 100%. The only other QB in the league who got that kind of contract was Drew Brees, who throws more than anyone else and is like having a coach on the field, plus headed to the HOF, first ballot. Even Brady and Rodgers didn't get that kind of contract. Almost any long term contract will thus be better than franchising him again and paying $24m, and most if not all of that guaranteed. By the way, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler aren't worth $20m either. Guess what? That's what the market demands.

As to Tyrod Taylor. I posted on him before, he's at an option year, and the Bills are in a bind. The odds of them finding a better QB in the draft are zero. The odds of them getting a better QB through FA, unless Cousins is available, are zero. They have rookie Cardale Jones learning, but he's a project for certain and needs to learn way more about about passing from the pocket. He could be the next Big Ben, or the next Vince Young. It's way too early to tell. I just can't see him starting next season.

As to Jay Cutler, he still has maybe the strongest arm in the NFL, sans maybe Aaron Rodgers. He can make throws other QB's cannot, and doesn't overthrow on short passes. But he also doesn't see the field of play well enough, doesn't move great in the pocket, and makes too many mistakes. He was grossly overpaid in Chicago. If the 49ers for example can sign him to a 2 year deal, or 1 year with options, and it costs them over $15m, I'd do that, thinking he's your transition player, and if he plays more than 2 years and has an amazing late career comeback, great.

I still content the Bears should, and will keep and try to work with Matt Barkley. He had his best season going back to his junior year in college. He made some costly mistakes this season, but his head seems into the game, and his arm better than he ever showed in the NFL. There's a lot of potential upside with him.

Mike Glennon is another wild card here. He could be the next Alex Smith. Mike seems to see the field well and go through transitions very quickly. Not Tom Brady quickly, but very well. He also has a pretty accurate arm short, just like Smith. Alex gets dinged for not having a great arm. I think his arm is average strength, he just lacks deep field accuracy, which is peculiar because he's amazingly accurate short. Brady for example has an average arm, so did Peyton Manning, but both could put the ball 20+ yards down the field on the button when needed. Smith is iffy at this, and I'm not sure Glennon can do it. Smith moves better than I've seen from Glennon though. Still, like Barkley perhaps, I think there's upside with Glennon, on the right team, and right system, to be a starting QB.

I still contend Tony Romo should retire. Carry a clipboard for the Cowboys. But I can also see him easily getting paid another $20m or close to it this year, as the league is starved for quality QBs. He is excellent, when healthy. And would need a top flight OL to protect him to get him through the season. Where's that going to happen? Dallas? Oakland? New England? Those teams already have QB's.

I don't see any way the Vikings let Sam Bradford go. It's unlikely Bridgewater will be ready to go by the start of the season, and Sam's played better than anyone (but Hitch!) expected in the last few years.

Again, on Garrapollo, we have barely seen enough of him. He played all but two games for the best team and coach in the NFL. He played well, not as well as Brady, but well. That's better than any rookie you're going to find. Better than Kaepernick, but worth taking a flyer on? I'm not so sure.

I would not sign Brian Hoyer to start for any team, unless he's strictly a stop gap temp, like Cutler would be in SF. His arm is stronger than Glennon, probably Taylor and Garappollo too, but he makes way too many mistakes. More than Cutler.

Kaep will find a home in the NFL, but he has so many problems as a QB, I can't see him starting, or even playing. He would make a better WR I think. But I don't think he has the discipline and humility that Terrell Pryor did.

Gabbert is a career backup. I posted a link before about him. He's average in almost everything, though he is somewhat mobile. But that also makes him skittish to escape the pocket. Not as bad as Kaep in this regard, but he's a career backup. Ponder? Why are we talking about that guy at all. I can't believe he's still in the league. Noodle armed version of Gabbert, without the ability to move.

Geno Smith has talent, but may be damaged goods. EJ Manual came out of that same draft, but will only end up a back-up somewhere. Ryan Fitzpatrick should retire. I think he's going to sign somewhere as a BU though, for the cash. Nick Foles had some talent, and size, but he's a BU too.

Curious if the Browns stick with RGIII, and see if Kessler or Hogan develop, or actually take yet another QB high in the draft. They won't at #1, that's for sure. But they have a very fat draft coming up, and are flush with cash, so we'll see what they do.

Nice list, but things have changed considerably since you posted this. Forget about Kirk "You like that!" Cousins - he's staying a beloved patriot as the "exclusive" FT was slapped on him:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000788320/article/redskins-put-exclusive-franchise-tag-on-kirk-cousins

And things are buzzing here in Bronco land with VJ wanting to acquire a veteran QB while the development project continues with Lynch. Speculation is that Elway's interested in Romo:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/sports/broncos/broncos-vance-joseph-remains-open-minded-about-veteran-quarterback

Those are the facts, and to some speculation floating around: Garoppolo is staying at NE, Keap wants out of SF (imagine that, Lol) and Cutler's not interested in SF.

I'm predicting SF is going to take a QB with that 2nd overall. They're pretty much going to have first choice with either Trubisky, Kiser or Watson. I'm sure after these guys show their stuff at the combine, they'll have a better idea of who they want.

Yeah I think the odds were in the favor of Cousins staying put. As for Garoppolo some people seem to think that the Patriots are playing games and they will trade him if the right deal comes along. I agree that the 49ers will have to take a QB in the early rounds as their remaining QBs are free agents and back ups at best. I still think Kaep is a chance to go to the Jets where a bunch of mediocre QBs will battle it out. Be interesting to see if Chicago still go after Garoppolo. The Browns will probably stick with RGIII and take a QB in the early rounds of the draft, their only competition will probably be from the 49ers and maybe the Jets if they intend to cut some of their QBs, most other teams will look at other positions. I think if Romo goes anywhere it will be Denver. Really Tyrod Taylor is the only other starting QB there is a question mark about and Cutler. Some of the free agents will miss out but might get picked up later when injuries occur. Hoyer should find a back up spot.

Good information from inside sources that JG is going to stay put in NE:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/buzz-is-building-that-the-patriots-might-not-trade-jimmy-garoppolo-at-all/

I agree that the Browns will probably stick with RGIII, but you gotta wonder how much longer his body can hold up. He played in only 5 games last year with that shoulder injury, and he also has that twice-surgically repaired knee to be concerned with. I watched him a lot at Baylor - he was electrifying. Sadly, he might end up with an injury shortened career when all is said and done. Hard to believe he was the 2nd overall pick right behind Luck.

Yeah RGIII has been knocked around that's for sure and his style of play doesn't help nor does the Browns offensive line. Jimmy G situation could get more interesting, I am sure the Patriots would prefer to keep him. You would think that the Cardinals and Pittsburgh also have to start considering their future QB prospects. Not sure about the Steelers back ups but the Cardinals is not that good from what I have seen. Time is marching on for Palmer and Ben has to be close to retirement. Will he last one more season ?

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Combine news bit: Leonard Fournette weighed in at 240 lbs. Heavier than Hershel Walker. If he runs anywhere near 4.4, Wow!
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...d-fournette-tips-combine-scales-at-240-pounds
Jerome Bettis 40-time was about 4.7.

 

[leftover pie]

I think the Patriots will hang on to Jimmy G, give him a few games next season, a few the season after, smoothly transitioning him into the role of QB for when Brady hits 45 or 50 years old, if Brady can play that long then why can't Jimmy G?

He just needs to get on the same, um, programme as Brady.

But it all means there's no real rush for Jimmy G to head elsewhere.

 

[Nomad]

Combine news bit: Leonard Fournette weighed in at 240 lbs. Heavier than Hershel Walker. If he runs anywhere near 4.4, Wow!
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...d-fournette-tips-combine-scales-at-240-pounds
Jerome Bettis 40-time was about 4.7.

That may not be good - it could drop him some draft spots if it affects his speed & agility (he's saying that it's water weight). He also didn't participate in the bench press:

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2017/3/2/14796202/2017-nfl-combine-results-running-backs-leonard-fournette-dalvin-cook-christian-mccaffrey