Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[DenisMenchov]

I fully expect Johaug to win 4 golds. 10km C, skiathlon, relay and 30km F mass start.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Great day for in the men relay. Their depth is really impressing. Still, beating Norway in Seefeld will be tall order, maybe an impossible one.

In Lahti Russia was just a handful of seconds behind Norway. In Pyeongchang Russia was 10 seconds behind, despite missing Ustiugov. Now they are stronger than before.

In both Lahti and Pyeongchang Chervotkin was a very weak link. In South Korea last year, Larkov and Bolshu did an amazing job, but he fell so far behind that Spitsov never had a chance against Klaebo.

 

[search]

Re:

Thinking of how the rest would be distributed, I assume 1-2 to Sweden in female skiing, Niskanen in classic, about 2 golds to Russia and a wild-card if someone, i.e Harvey or Cologna, is in great form.

There's probably a chance in the two sprint competitions, yeah, even without Nilsson. Maybe also in the relay if Kalla can manage to get back into her normal shape.

 

[Singer01]

Re:

I fully expect Johaug to win 4 golds. 10km C, skiathlon, relay and 30km F mass start.

And with no Nilsson at least 1 of the 2 sprint races. Then Klaebo wins same 3 events he won at the Olympics and the men win at least 1 other event. Maybe 9 if things go really well/bad depending how you look at it.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Retyvikh and Ustiugov vs Klaebo and probably Skar will be really entertaining in the Team Sprint though.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re: Re:

I fully expect Johaug to win 4 golds. 10km C, skiathlon, relay and 30km F mass start.

And with no Nilsson at least 1 of the 2 sprint races. Then Klaebo wins same 3 events he won at the Olympics and the men win at least 1 other event. Maybe 9 if things go really well/bad depending how you look at it.

I don't think it's going to be one way traffic for the Norwegians. The Russians have a much deeper team this year then they had in either Lahti or Pyeongchang. Ustiugov didn't race, Bessmertnykh, didn't race, Belov didn't race, Melnichenko is healthier and is a different skier this year, Retyvikh is a darkhorse for the sprint and could be a pick to ski in the team sprint...Now they have Maltsev who surprised in the relay and actually got on the podium in Dresden in the team sprint...

The French have a deep team as well, but there hope is in the skate races and sprint.

The Finns surprised me in Ulricehamn. I knew Niskanen would have a good leg, but Hyvarinen had a great leg and Lehtonen and Heikkinen kept them relatively close to the podium.

The Swedes battled the French and one figures that all things being equal, or close to it, the fight for bronze should be between those three teams.

Individually it's again Russia vs Norway and then individuals like Niskanen, Cologna, Harvey, Halfvarsson, Manificat that can fight for medals.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

Retyvikh and Ustiugov vs Klaebo and probably Skar will be really entertaining in the Team Sprint though.

I think it's highly unlikely that Retyvikh and especially Skar race the team sprint. Likely that Bolshunov and Ustiugov race for Russia and Klaebo and Iversen race for Norway.

 

[search]

Re: Re:

I fully expect Johaug to win 4 golds. 10km C, skiathlon, relay and 30km F mass start.

And with no Nilsson at least 1 of the 2 sprint races.

I haven't had a look at the courses so far, but no matter what it looks like, Falla would need to improve massively to stand a chance to win a freestyle sprint. Norway clearly won't be the favorite in that one.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Re: Re:

Retyvikh and Ustiugov vs Klaebo and probably Skar will be really entertaining in the Team Sprint though.

I think it's highly unlikely that Retyvikh and especially Skar race the team sprint. Likely that Bolshunov and Ustiugov race for Russia and Klaebo and Iversen race for Norway.

Oh, yeah. It's classics sprint, nonetheless, I expect Bolshu to miss the Team Sprint, and Sergey to miss 15km C. Others need to get opportunities in such a big team. And Retyvikh is an obvious choice for the second leg.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re: Re:

Retyvikh and Ustiugov vs Klaebo and probably Skar will be really entertaining in the Team Sprint though.

I think it's highly unlikely that Retyvikh and especially Skar race the team sprint. Likely that Bolshunov and Ustiugov race for Russia and Klaebo and Iversen race for Norway.

Oh, yeah. It's classics sprint, nonetheless, I expect Bolshu to miss the Team Sprint, and Sergey to miss 15km C. Others need to get opportunities in such a big team. And Retyvikh is an obvious choice for the second leg.

Bolshunov will likely miss the skiathlon and race the team sprint. The team sprint is the day after the skiathlon, plus Bolshunov has higher chances to win a medal in the team sprint then in a skiathlon. Ustiugov raced everything but the individual 15km in Lahti, and if he's fit, he'll likely do the same in Seefeld. He can recover quicker than Bolshunov, so my guess is that he's doing the first three races. Since he's the defending champion in the skiathlon, the Russians get an extra spot. My guess would be Ustiugov, Belov, Melnichenko, Spitsov and Larkov for that one. For Bolshunov, who knows, maybe they'll sit him for the skiathlon AND the sprint (which is the first race on the program) so he's very fresh for the team sprint, 15km classic and the relay.

Last time it was easy for them to pick skiers because seemingly half of their medal hopefuls were missing, and obviously the youngsters like Spitsov were not even on the team.

Skar is notably better in skating so unless a number of the other guys are below par or are sick, he won't pair with Klaebo. Iversen, Brandsdal, Fossli, maybe even Toenseth could do that one. The course in Seefeld isn't as hard as Lahti so perhaps a sprinter+sprinter pairing may not be bad.

 

[zarnack]

If Nilsson goes missing for Sweden, that would be a bit tricky for them. Obviously they can still win the sprints, but it would be a close call. Missing Nilsson in the final leg of 4x5 would be too much of a handicap though, as Sweden would have two potential weak links in relay instead of one. Still probably good enough for silver though.

Johaug is a shoe-in for women distances, but obviously anything can happen and you can have a bad day. Remember, what happened to Norwegian skis in 2015 Falun 10 km freestyle. But by far the strongest discipline for Johaug is 30 km. The only question there is by how many minutes she is going to win, lol.

As for men. I think team sprint would be very interesting between Norway and Russia, and actually I see Niskanen-Hakola (I guess?) as a bit of wildcard there. Remember how Finland almost won 2017 Lahti classic team sprint.

 

[zarnack]

Re: Re:

I fully expect Johaug to win 4 golds. 10km C, skiathlon, relay and 30km F mass start.

And with no Nilsson at least 1 of the 2 sprint races. Then Klaebo wins same 3 events he won at the Olympics and the men win at least 1 other event. Maybe 9 if things go really well/bad depending how you look at it.

Well, Norway won 9 in 2015 Falun. And 8 in 2011 Oslo. They have totally dominated the 2010's, more than in any previous decade. Certainly not good in my view. :razz: And it doesn't look like this overall trend is going to change. Russia in men and Sweden in women can offer a bit of a challenge in depth, but nothing like an overall turnaround.

However, to touch a related subject - what I find interesting is that this hasn't always been the case. If you count gold medals won in cross-country skiing in the olympics and world championships until 1990 - USSR, Sweden and Finland all won more than Norway. I'm not entirely sure, what changed after 1990. Of course, USSR collapsed, but this doesn't explain the other two Nordic countries. By the way, 1990+ coincides also with Norway emerging strongly in alpine skiing, while they were just a minor player there before.

One reason I can find is that oil was discovered in Norway in 1969. And until 1980's they were slightly lagging behind Sweden in living standards. But since then Norway has been top 3 country in the world in GDP per capita. So in terms of resources they are in a more advantageous position they used to be.

But it's a fascinating topic on which I would like to hear more explanations and views.

 

[Singer01]

Re:

If Nilsson goes missing for Sweden, that would be a bit tricky for them. Obviously they can still win the sprints, but it would be a close call. Missing Nilsson in the final leg of 4x5 would be too much of a handicap though, as Sweden would have two potential weak links in relay instead of one. Still probably good enough for silver though.

Johaug is a shoe-in for women distances, but obviously anything can happen and you can have a bad day. Remember, what happened to Norwegian skis in 2015 Falun 10 km freestyle. But by far the strongest discipline for Johaug is 30 km. The only question there is by how many minutes she is going to win, lol.

As for men. I think team sprint would be very interesting between Norway and Russia, and actually I see Niskanen-Hakola (I guess?) as a bit of wildcard there. Remember how Finland almost won 2017 Lahti classic team sprint.

In my memory that was a snow issue not a ski issue, the big ski problem was the olympics 4x5 relay.

With regard to why they have been so dominant, avoiding the clinic, sometimes a golden generation does emerge. The women i think haven't won fewer than 5 golds out of 6 since about 2009, coinciding with the emergence of 2 otherworldly talented athletes coming to the forefront (possibly the 2 greatest female XC skiiers of all time). The rest of the team have been successful and deep, but not really head and shoulders above the competition.

 

[bambino]

Re:

If Nilsson goes missing for Sweden, that would be a bit tricky for them. Obviously they can still win the sprints, but it would be a close call. Missing Nilsson in the final leg of 4x5 would be too much of a handicap though, as Sweden would have two potential weak links in relay instead of one. Still probably good enough for silver though.

Johaug is a shoe-in for women distances, but obviously anything can happen and you can have a bad day. Remember, what happened to Norwegian skis in 2015 Falun 10 km freestyle. But by far the strongest discipline for Johaug is 30 km. The only question there is by how many minutes she is going to win, lol.

As for men. I think team sprint would be very interesting between Norway and Russia, and actually I see Niskanen-Hakola (I guess?) as a bit of wildcard there. Remember how Finland almost won 2017 Lahti classic team sprint.

In case Hakola is in his best shape (even better than Otepaa), I see him and Niskanen even better team for classic team sprint than Jauhojarvi-Niskanen. And the latter duo won OG and was indeed very close winning in Lahti without the bad luck.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re: Re:

If Nilsson goes missing for Sweden, that would be a bit tricky for them. Obviously they can still win the sprints, but it would be a close call. Missing Nilsson in the final leg of 4x5 would be too much of a handicap though, as Sweden would have two potential weak links in relay instead of one. Still probably good enough for silver though.

Johaug is a shoe-in for women distances, but obviously anything can happen and you can have a bad day. Remember, what happened to Norwegian skis in 2015 Falun 10 km freestyle. But by far the strongest discipline for Johaug is 30 km. The only question there is by how many minutes she is going to win, lol.

As for men. I think team sprint would be very interesting between Norway and Russia, and actually I see Niskanen-Hakola (I guess?) as a bit of wildcard there. Remember how Finland almost won 2017 Lahti classic team sprint.

In case Hakola is in his best shape (even better than Otepaa), I see him and Niskanen even better team for classic team sprint than Jauhojarvi-Niskanen. And the latter duo won OG and was indeed very close winning in Lahti without the bad luck.

It was precisely because of luck that they won in Sochi. It was simply karma in Lahti.

Hakola I am not sure has the stamina to last the whole race. It's the main reason why he hasn't gotten on a WC podium yet, at almost 28 years of age. He often qualifies in the top 10, but then loses steam in the heats.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Just pick Strandvall and let him loose in the changeover area, if you want it to be about luck. It'll be sheer randomness who stays upright.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

If Nilsson goes missing for Sweden, that would be a bit tricky for them. Obviously they can still win the sprints, but it would be a close call. Missing Nilsson in the final leg of 4x5 would be too much of a handicap though, as Sweden would have two potential weak links in relay instead of one. Still probably good enough for silver though.

Johaug is a shoe-in for women distances, but obviously anything can happen and you can have a bad day. Remember, what happened to Norwegian skis in 2015 Falun 10 km freestyle. But by far the strongest discipline for Johaug is 30 km. The only question there is by how many minutes she is going to win, lol.

As for men. I think team sprint would be very interesting between Norway and Russia, and actually I see Niskanen-Hakola (I guess?) as a bit of wildcard there. Remember how Finland almost won 2017 Lahti classic team sprint.

In case Hakola is in his best shape (even better than Otepaa), I see him and Niskanen even better team for classic team sprint than Jauhojarvi-Niskanen. And the latter duo won OG and was indeed very close winning in Lahti without the bad luck.

It was precisely because of luck that they won in Sochi. It was simply karma in Lahti.

Hakola I am not sure has the stamina to last the whole race. It's the main reason why he hasn't gotten on a WC podium yet, at almost 28 years of age. He often qualifies in the top 10, but then loses steam in the heats.

Hakola was just 9th in Otepaa 15km classic in one of the most demanding courses in the World Cup. Lost to the 3rd place less than 15s and won i.e. Larkov. He is definitely not pure sprinter anymore thus can still be in final in good day and top 12 in normal day. He has slowly became almost Jauhojarvi level distance classic skier with sprint ability.

 

[DenisMenchov]

To be honest, his 9th place has a lot to do with the fact that he was Bib 51, while Niskanen was Bib 53. That's also the reason he was almost exactly one minute behind him.

 

[zarnack]

Johaug won Norwegian championships in 10 km with a gap of 1:10.

I don't know. I can understand that she is a great talent and all that, but some things are just too abnormal. Like Mühlegg's performance was too good to be true.

The only way excitement would return to female skiing would be if she got caught again... Until then she keeps making others look like amateurs. It kind of devalues female skiing in its entirety. Like in 2016 World Cup races, where she basically ran away from others from the start.

 

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well, that is a smaller margin than in Otepää at least . Jacobsen seems to be getting in decent shape right for the Worlds.

I agree though, in classic technique she's on a different level at the moment. In skating there's a small chance of beating her.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

well, that is a smaller margin than in Otepää at least . Jacobsen seems to be getting in decent shape right for the Worlds.

I agree though, in classic technique she's on a different level at the moment. In skating there's a small chance of beating her.

The tracks in Seefeld are not as tough as Ruka or Otepaa or Lillehammer or even Ulricehamn (the additional hill really made it tougher!) so hopefully the gaps won't be big. I also think that if the conditions aren't soft, it'll help the others. In the Lahti 30km, the women's front pack was unusually 'large.' This was mostly due to the hard-packed, fast conditions. Nobody was able to breakaway. If the conditions are like that in Seefeld, we may see a similar story.

The women's relay will not be easy for Norway, I don't think. The Swedes, even without Nilsson could challenge. If Andersson skis the way she has been this season, and Kalla is able to get to the level she is capable of reaching for major races, plus solid legs from Settlin/Ingemarsdotter (Karlsson is a good bet as well), they can certainly stick with the Norwegians. The Russians could as well. Belorukova was just coming back from illness last weekend, so I don't think we saw the best of her, yet she was able to break it up a bit in the opening leg. Nepryeava did as well as one probably could against Johaug on those hills and those softer conditions. They didn't have Sedova, a big part of their team the last couple seasons, especially this year. Instead they had to put in Soboleva, and she was the weakest link in Ulricehamn. They have U23 skiers like Zherebyateva, Durkina (excellent classic skiers) and Istomina (excellent skate skier) that have had good relay legs this season and a number of top 10's in individual races, plus obvious success at U23's last week. They could very well have the exact lineup as last year's Olympics, where they were fighting for gold until the anchor leg. All four have improved, so there is a fighting chance of beating the Norwegians. The Americans have two great skiers and a number of skiers that are just inside or just outside of World Cup points in the races they've taken part in, so it'll be tough for them to get a medal. The Finns have skied well with what they have and they'll need Parmakoski to motor in Seefeld. Everyone else will be fighting for minor positions.

What I am seeing is that Oestberg's form is on a downward trend again, and Weng still hasn't fully recovered from her efforts in the TDS last season. Jacobsen is improving, but everyone else on that A distance/allround team apart from Johaug is either the same level or declining. If that continues, it should make for a much harder to call relay.

 

[zarnack]

Re: Re:

plus solid legs from Settlin/Ingemarsdotter (Karlsson is a good bet as well), they can certainly stick with the Norwegians.

---

What I am seeing is that Oestberg's form is on a downward trend again, and Weng still hasn't fully recovered from her efforts in the TDS last season. Jacobsen is improving, but everyone else on that A distance/allround team apart from Johaug is either the same level or declining. If that continues, it should make for a much harder to call relay.

Karlsson in Sweden's relay team is an interesting thought. In 2017 Lahti Andersson, similarly aged 19 then, was put into relay team and actually didn't do badly at all. By the way, any insight information - will Karlsson take part of the senior World Champs? Or will she join senior cup only from next season onwards?

What concerns Norwegians, what is happening with Haga? Won impressively the freestyle gold in the olympics, but has been nowhere this season?! Can she bounce back?

 

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yeah, she aims to take one of the classic parts in the relay, according to this article

http://www.fondoitalia.it/2019/01/30/notizie/argomenti/sci-di-fondo/articolo/frida-karlsson-la-ragazza-che-a-seefeld-vuole-gia-sfidare-le-grandi.html

(no idea what's the original source)

 

[Singer01]

Norway have to decide if they put Johaug on the 2nd C leg as normal, or put her last. Conventional wisdom says she goes last. Weng, Oestberg +1 other should be able to hand her over in the lead or at least equal with any of the other teams.

 

[bambino]

Re:

To be honest, his 9th place has a lot to do with the fact that he was Bib 51, while Niskanen was Bib 53. That's also the reason he was almost exactly one minute behind him.

About Hakola and Otepaa. He skied last around 3km together with Niskanen. Hakola was i.e. 10th in half way on his own.

Today Hakola won 15km classic finnish championship by almost 30s on Hyvarinen (who did OK on relay last weekend) and more than minute to Heikkinen. Niskanen wasn't competing. Still quite sure Hakola-Niskanen will be formidable duo in Seefeld pair-sprint.

Parmakoski completed the Nordic strike started by Johaug and Andersson by winning close to a minute compared to next.