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- Apr 7, 2011
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Does anyone know what tomorrows track looks like? More flatish easy type of sprint or rather difficult?
- Aug 9, 2012
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python said:
He, perhaps this is a new Swedish hit in the making. Anyway, the singer isn't a real Swede so any peace doesn't count, he is from Skåne.
jsem94 said:
Agreed.
python said:
Nah it was all the skies, and the weather and the turf, and the luck etc.
Still, they were both impressive. Today I salute my Swedish overlords.
- Sep 25, 2009
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a couple of late thoughts on the late developments...
1. at torebear:
did you ever come across sundby's physio, like his weight and height ? it may eventually matter...i dont seem to find any. i am now convinced he's the main contender for the overall besides legkov. he'll stand his ground in the 2 remaining classic legs (his favourite) all right, but i am not sure if he can climb cermis well. the 2 times he did (2009 and 2010) he was not impressive. looking at pictures, he should be 180-182 cm and about 75-80 kg. not as big as northug but roughly the size of legkov.
2. i am irritated by randall, the athlete's rep at fis, by her political, hore-like rhetoric towards justyna's decision to withdraw. she clearly protects the authorities in stead of the athletes she supposed to.
granted, the changes to the tds programme (another skating sprint instead of a classic pursuit) were due to weather. but she talks bs here:
i respect kikkan but when she acts likes a political hore i start recalling some of her strange blood values never acted upon.
1. at torebear:
did you ever come across sundby's physio, like his weight and height ? it may eventually matter...i dont seem to find any. i am now convinced he's the main contender for the overall besides legkov. he'll stand his ground in the 2 remaining classic legs (his favourite) all right, but i am not sure if he can climb cermis well. the 2 times he did (2009 and 2010) he was not impressive. looking at pictures, he should be 180-182 cm and about 75-80 kg. not as big as northug but roughly the size of legkov.
2. i am irritated by randall, the athlete's rep at fis, by her political, hore-like rhetoric towards justyna's decision to withdraw. she clearly protects the authorities in stead of the athletes she supposed to.
granted, the changes to the tds programme (another skating sprint instead of a classic pursuit) were due to weather. but she talks bs here:
what process ? she herself is not at the tour and can babble freely as it has no impact on her, but she knows too well that the athletes were NOT consulted. she even said:
. the facts are on justyna's side - a heavily skewed towards skating programme was decided upon and NO athlete, including the athlete rep, was part of the decision.
i respect kikkan but when she acts likes a political hore i start recalling some of her strange blood values never acted upon.
- Apr 17, 2013
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Impressed by Norttug to reach the final, even if he faded then. Is he finally starting to reach any kind of decent form?
Still sees Bjørgen as favourite for overall win in womens race.
Still sees Bjørgen as favourite for overall win in womens race.
- Apr 7, 2011
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Cance > TheRest said:
Northug simply is one of the best sprinters among distance racers.
There were hardly any sprint specialists, too.
Besides i still think his focus is on short distances this season.
He knows he has no chance for a medal in Sotchi in the 15km, 30km and 50km races, therefore he focuses on sprint, teamsprint and relay.
- Aug 9, 2012
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python said:a couple of late thoughts on the late developments...
1. at torebear:
did you ever come across sundby's physio, like his weight and height ? it may eventually matter...i dont seem to find any. i am now convinced he's the main contender for the overall besides legkov. he'll stand his ground in the 2 remaining classic legs (his favourite) all right, but i am not sure if he can climb cermis well. the 2 times he did (2009 and 2010) he was not impressive. looking at pictures, he should be 180-182 cm and about 75-80 kg. not as big as northug but roughly the size of legkov.
2. i am irritated by randall, the athlete's rep at fis, by her political, hore-like rhetoric towards justyna's decision to withdraw. she clearly protects the authorities in stead of the athletes she supposed to.
granted, the changes to the tds programme (another skating sprint instead of a classic pursuit) were due to weather. but she talks bs here:
what process ? she herself is not at the tour and can babble freely as it has no impact on her, but she knows too well that the athletes were NOT consulted. she even said:
. the facts are on justyna's side - a heavily skewed towards skating programme was decided upon and NO athlete, including the athlete rep, was part of the decision.
i respect kikkan but when she acts likes a political hore i start recalling some of her strange blood values never acted upon.
1. Your guess is probably almost as good as mine, though I have probably seen him a few more times. I think he is smaller than Northug, but I'm not sure.
But I don't believe the power to weight ratio is that important in xc as in cycling. Reasons are:
- Less dead weight, since you use your upper body in xc.
- More anaerobic.
- The general form is important.
- The good or bad day is very important.
- Technique is important, even up alpe de cermis.
- The skies are essential.
So power to weight would only be one of those factors in my mind that determines who wins up the alpe.
For Sundby, the thing about him is that in his previous climbs he did not have a good freestyle technique. Now his freestyle technique is excellent, though probably there are still a lot of things to work on. The climb on cermis requires it's own style(skate 1 I think it's called), the question is how much he has worked on that? I don't think it's been a top priority for him, like increasing his finishing ability has.
So I guess we will just have to wait and see.
2. On Randall, I haven't heard what she said, and as always there is a question of reporting(how questions were asked, context, etc).
Also remember she is one of the two xc athlete reps, and she was not shy about organizing a revolt against the track in Falun last year. So she has not shied away from saying unpopular things in the past.
On the issue itself, I'm not sure what FIS could have done in the situation they found themselves in. The options were either cancel or have a race. Ironically had Justyna showed up, her chances might not have been as bad as she previously thought due to the course and conditions.
One can argue that FIS should have had an alternative venue available especially with Oberhof having a long history of problems. Then again why not ditch Oberhof in the first place, since they have previously showed lack of ability/will to deliver good conditions. I remember last year(or the year before), there was talk of them saving snow for the Biathlon. And this seems to be the same, so FIS should perhaps have ditched them as an organizer already.
But they didn't, and in the situation they found themselves in, this was the least worse option. I can see arguments for and against withdrawing in the case of Justyna. Perhaps this will give the impetus FIS needs to dump Oberhof, or perhaps they didn't need any impetus and Oberhof would be dumped anyway. Who knows? I think she should have stayed. But thats just my opinion.
As for Randalls 2006 blood, I'm willing to give her a huge benefit of doubt, due to all the circumstances at the time.
- It was acted upon, she was not allowed to start for 48hrs after a new test, which she passed.
- The event was at high altitude which complicates the procedure of finding the real blood values.
- We don't know how big a deviation there was.
- We don't know if somebody botched something in the test(testing standards were probably not as high then as now).
- I have grown suspicious of the man in charge at the time's understanding of how natural variability, testing methods, high altitude, etc. effect the measured blood values.
Anyway, if there was something fishy, we might find out about it since the IOC is currently in or about to begin the process of retesting the samples since the SOL is about to end.
And what was undetectable then, might light up like a christmas tree now.
- Sep 25, 2009
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this is generally correct.ToreBear said:
but if you recall, about a year ago i went through the trouble of researching the fastest skiers weight up mn cermis, and generally (i estimate a correlation at about 70%) the lightest fellas were the fastest. this should hardly be a surprise when slopes are 15-20% and the resistance is predominately weight. plus the skate 1 technique at such slopes is more dependent of upper body power...
anyway, i am watching the man's qualifier tt, sundby again is magnificent, currently 4th fastest, with only 2 more norges in top 30, they have about 10 more starters left.
- Apr 7, 2011
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Alpe Cermis is a gimmick anyway. There's actually an extra sport for going up ski slopes with skies. No need to do it in cross country skiing. Doing 1 final climb of 10km with 8% or something would be much cooler and more fitting.
Nice Wenzl in the semis again
Nice Wenzl in the semis again
- Aug 9, 2012
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python said:
Wow, Sundby is both impressive and really lucky. Two times through on Lucky Loser and then ends up number 3!
. These sprints are really quite entertaining with most of the top sprinters out.I remember the post, it was very interesting. I didn't remember that you calculated the correlation, that is very interesting. But I think you only based your calculations on one year. I listed some other years that I think would weaken the correlation quite significantly.
The correlation was strong last year but was it the year before as well? That would give us a few more data points.
Also remember there is a long stretch that has to be skied before the start of the hill. One could ski this part real fast, and then take it easier uphill, or vice versa.
So there would be even more variables.
Bavarianrider said:Alpe Cermis is a gimmick anyway. There's actually an extra sport for going up ski slopes with skies. No need to do it in cross country skiing. Doing 1 final climb of 10km with 8% or something would be much cooler and more fitting.
Nice Wenzl in the semis again
There is? What sport?
10 km at 8% would be interesting too. I want it all.
Yep he was good. In fact the Germans seem to have some talent on the way up, especially for the girls.
Obviously Hermann, but the others don't seem to be that far behind either.
Interesting with an american win on the sprint. And it wasn't Newell, it was Hamilton.
- Aug 9, 2012
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jsem94 said:
Yep, he was someone I hoped would qualify for the quarter finals, not land on the podium.
I hope Marit is better tomorrow, she sounded pretty sure she would be, but that could be just optimism speaking.
Marit should beat Johaug on all the mass start finishes, and for most of the bonus seconds on the course, so she has time to increase the gap.
- Apr 7, 2011
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ToreBear said:Wow, Sundby is both impressive and really lucky. Two times through on Lucky Loser and then ends up number 3!
I remember the post, it was very interesting. I didn't remember that you calculated the correlation, that is very interesting. But I think you only based your calculations on one year. I listed some other years that I think would weaken the correlation quite significantly.
The correlation was strong last year but was it the year before as well? That would give us a few more data points.
Also remember there is a long stretch that has to be skied before the start of the hill. One could ski this part real fast, and then take it easier uphill, or vice versa.
So there would be even more variables.
There is? What sport?
10 km at 8% would be interesting too. I want it all.
Yep he was good. In fact the Germans seem to have some talent on the way up, especially for the girls.
Obviously Hermann, but the others don't seem to be that far behind either.
Mountaineering or whatever it is called in English
Well compared to the situation of 2000-2007 the state of german xc skiing is really sad. But i fear we'd have to discuss this one in a different sector of this forum.
- Oct 5, 2010
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I want to see the Tour with different types of stages instead. The Cortina-Toblach stage and Alpe Cermis are the only two that are actually special to me.
Maybe something like:
-One or two very flat long stages, simulating long-distance races, but making them 20-25km long. Preferably classic style. Mass start. (Such that doing only double poling might be a winning strategy).
-Climb ITT. Something less steep. 4-5km @ 6-7%.
Or more Cortina-Toblach stages. That is one my favorite moments of the winter. Every time. Such amazing scenery.
Maybe something like:
-One or two very flat long stages, simulating long-distance races, but making them 20-25km long. Preferably classic style. Mass start. (Such that doing only double poling might be a winning strategy).
-Climb ITT. Something less steep. 4-5km @ 6-7%.
Or more Cortina-Toblach stages. That is one my favorite moments of the winter. Every time. Such amazing scenery.
- Sep 25, 2009
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this was not a particularly exciting sprint, but few things seem worth the note...
- a chinese suddenly bursting into the top 4 qualifiers being the last starter ! what the heck was that not that he is a complete unknown, he's been in top wc 30 before, surely, once the heats started he was gone as it was supposed to happen.
- sundby continues to amaze me with a second final in a row both times outbidding northug. at one point in a semifinal after he passed almost everyone in a free glide, i thought THAT was his secret, but he seemed to also play well tactically with some good positioning for a final burst at the finish. he lucky loser spot was well deserved. it all looks good but in a multi-stage race it may cost him the valuable recovery time. legkov was stretched back in a hotel while martin kept busting his **** for 2 more supra max efforts...anyway, he is now almost half-a-minute ahead of legkov and, iirc, he said yesterday he'll feel comfortable with 45 seconds lead before the cermis climb.
hamilton really surprised me today with both the straight out fastest time and the final win. good skis for sure, he normally generously comments post races, so we'll found out.
- a chinese suddenly bursting into the top 4 qualifiers being the last starter ! what the heck was that
not that he is a complete unknown, he's been in top wc 30 before, surely, once the heats started he was gone as it was supposed to happen.- sundby continues to amaze me with a second final in a row both times outbidding northug. at one point in a semifinal after he passed almost everyone in a free glide, i thought THAT was his secret, but he seemed to also play well tactically with some good positioning for a final burst at the finish. he lucky loser spot was well deserved. it all looks good but in a multi-stage race it may cost him the valuable recovery time. legkov was stretched back in a hotel while martin kept busting his **** for 2 more supra max efforts...anyway, he is now almost half-a-minute ahead of legkov and, iirc, he said yesterday he'll feel comfortable with 45 seconds lead before the cermis climb.
hamilton really surprised me today with both the straight out fastest time and the final win. good skis for sure, he normally generously comments post races, so we'll found out.
- Apr 7, 2011
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Hopefully the men will tackle the 15km mass start really hard now. I mean there should be plenty of guys who aren't interested in tactical games and simply have to try to gain back some time.
- Aug 9, 2012
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jsem94 said:
Yep I love that stage. Perhaps in the future FIS can see possibilities in some of what you mention. There is a lot of potential for exciting and different races.
python said:this was not a particularly exciting sprint, but few things seem worth the note...
- a chinese suddenly bursting into the top 4 qualifiers being the last starter ! what the heck was that
- sundby continues to amaze me with a second final in a row both times outbidding northug. at one point in a semifinal after he passed almost everyone in a free glide, i thought THAT was his secret, but he seemed to also play well tactically with some good positioning for a final burst at the finish. he lucky loser spot was well deserved. it all looks good but in a multi-stage race it may cost him the valuable recovery time. legkov was stretched back in a hotel while martin kept busting his **** for 2 more supra max efforts...anyway, he is now almost half-a-minute ahead of legkov and, iirc, he said yesterday he'll feel comfortable with 45 seconds lead before the cermis climb.
hamilton really surprised me today with both the straight out fastest time and the final win. good skis for sure, he normally generously comments post races, so we'll found out.
I liked this sprint better than the last one. The course was great, the snow was good, and it was still possible for the not so good distance skiers to gain some bonus seconds.
- The NRK dudes commented on that, they were very impressed with his skate 3 technique. Not so much with everything else though, so it's not that strange that he should perform well in the qualifer and struggle in the heats. He could likely use his skills to maximum effect in the prologue. But when the heats start with maneuvering, stress, style changes, and more stamina required, he struggled.
- Yep Sundby is really shining. But as you say, there might be a cost. But since tomorrow is classic, Legkov might loose even more time. Remember, Sundby likes to play down expectations, he might have done that this time as well.
- Thats whats cool about the americans, they talk and are open, and it's in a language I understand.
Bavarianrider said:
Ah I didn't know about mountaneering, I will have to do some googling when I have the time.
I think I know what you are thinking about regarding 2000-2007. There looks to be some smoke there, but it could also just be steam, and not fire.
If I'm thats not in the direction you were thinking, I would appreciate your thoughts in the other thread.
As for tomorrow, it should be interesting, most of the distance guys have had easy days until now, and are likely really keen to get the real racing going. The guys who made it to the final(s) might not feel quite as keen on a hard tempo.
- Sep 25, 2009
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after 3 days of show-biz (as it was planned by the local tv and fis, no doubt), the tour de ski is finally staring TODAY.
before looking at the odds down the road I wanted to settle (in my own mind of course) the nagging questions following the 2 days of sprints.
1. how come hamilton who was a ‘nobody’ in oberhof just a day prior, suddenly sprung to destroy the field ?
2. why sundby was so special in both the oberhof and the lenzerheide sprints
3. is legkov after being relatively successful in oberhof still an overall contender after he failed to even qualify in lenzerheide ?
the best answer to the first question was given by Hamilton himself. i felt he was not being playfull or deflective (like northug often is) when he attributed his success to the difference in the oberhof vs. lenzerheide course layuout, elevation, difficulty and the weather. this, he believed, allowed him to max his strong sides of an 80kg sprinter - superior v2 technique (skier’s speed gear ) in firm snow conditions, generally preferring elevation, and the perfect glide. indeed, comparing qualifying times on the identical distances (1500 m), oberhof’s slush was fully 10% slower than lenzerheide’s perfectly packed, less complicated (in terms of difficulty of turns and elevation difference) trails. the long downhill and flat finish in Lenzerheide is any sprinter’s dream. thus a good skating technician like Hamilton, thrived..
the answer to the 2nd question is shorter, but partly is in the first answer - sundby, in addition to being already impressive in v1, has improved remarkably his v2. he is a pleasure to watch. plus he was a tenacious fighter with some luck and a solid aerobic base.
to answer the 3d question, i had the most fun. i replayed this year’s video of 4x7.5 team relay. legkov and. sundby skated in the 3d leg. it seemed a pertinent video as it was comparing a much improved, this-year sundby vs. this year legkov.
one gets to match the strength and lack of subtlety of a russian battering ram against the fitness and smooth power of a norwegian train running on schedule... at about 4km legkov floored the pedal with the furious v1 up a hill... only roethe and sundby could hang on. Legkov kept burying himself, but i could not see any apparent sign of weakness in roethe or sundby styles. It was hard to see their faces and breathing, but legkov was hunching over and furiously punching snow in the most ungraceful manner while the 2 norges were gracefully ‘whistling’ behind. with 500 m to go, roethe, unhappy wih legkov's and sundby’s pace, is trying to pass them uphill on the left…legkov adds a notch. Soon the 2 of them open a small gap (3-5 m) on sundby who was visibly unlatched with 300 m to a last turnover. this was truly insignificant in terms of the race dynamics or making any predictions. northug took 3 swings to close the gap, but the raw v1 power of legkov was hard to ignore. btw, v1 is what they will use up the steepest parts of cermis.
so, legkov is still very much a contender. As for today’s classic mass start, it should be about sprint bonuses. sundby said he will be glued to legkov’s ’wheel’ . if legkob will be his usual, i expect a battering ram trying to red line everyone. doubt it will work today. But it may work in a 30k skating pursuit. and up cermis. in a skating pursuit, legkov and his buds have enough time to team up and close a 30 seconds gap to sundby, particularly if northug drops out before the pursuit (this is why i dont believe he will - too selfish looking)
Let the race finally begin.
before looking at the odds down the road I wanted to settle (in my own mind of course) the nagging questions following the 2 days of sprints.
1. how come hamilton who was a ‘nobody’ in oberhof just a day prior, suddenly sprung to destroy the field ?
2. why sundby was so special in both the oberhof and the lenzerheide sprints
3. is legkov after being relatively successful in oberhof still an overall contender after he failed to even qualify in lenzerheide ?
the best answer to the first question was given by Hamilton himself. i felt he was not being playfull or deflective (like northug often is) when he attributed his success to the difference in the oberhof vs. lenzerheide course layuout, elevation, difficulty and the weather. this, he believed, allowed him to max his strong sides of an 80kg sprinter - superior v2 technique (skier’s speed gear ) in firm snow conditions, generally preferring elevation, and the perfect glide. indeed, comparing qualifying times on the identical distances (1500 m), oberhof’s slush was fully 10% slower than lenzerheide’s perfectly packed, less complicated (in terms of difficulty of turns and elevation difference) trails. the long downhill and flat finish in Lenzerheide is any sprinter’s dream. thus a good skating technician like Hamilton, thrived..
the answer to the 2nd question is shorter, but partly is in the first answer - sundby, in addition to being already impressive in v1, has improved remarkably his v2. he is a pleasure to watch. plus he was a tenacious fighter with some luck and a solid aerobic base.
to answer the 3d question, i had the most fun. i replayed this year’s video of 4x7.5 team relay. legkov and. sundby skated in the 3d leg. it seemed a pertinent video as it was comparing a much improved, this-year sundby vs. this year legkov.
one gets to match the strength and lack of subtlety of a russian battering ram against the fitness and smooth power of a norwegian train running on schedule... at about 4km legkov floored the pedal with the furious v1 up a hill... only roethe and sundby could hang on. Legkov kept burying himself, but i could not see any apparent sign of weakness in roethe or sundby styles. It was hard to see their faces and breathing, but legkov was hunching over and furiously punching snow in the most ungraceful manner while the 2 norges were gracefully ‘whistling’ behind. with 500 m to go, roethe, unhappy wih legkov's and sundby’s pace, is trying to pass them uphill on the left…legkov adds a notch. Soon the 2 of them open a small gap (3-5 m) on sundby who was visibly unlatched with 300 m to a last turnover. this was truly insignificant in terms of the race dynamics or making any predictions. northug took 3 swings to close the gap, but the raw v1 power of legkov was hard to ignore. btw, v1 is what they will use up the steepest parts of cermis.
so, legkov is still very much a contender. As for today’s classic mass start, it should be about sprint bonuses. sundby said he will be glued to legkov’s ’wheel’ . if legkob will be his usual, i expect a battering ram trying to red line everyone. doubt it will work today. But it may work in a 30k skating pursuit. and up cermis. in a skating pursuit, legkov and his buds have enough time to team up and close a 30 seconds gap to sundby, particularly if northug drops out before the pursuit (this is why i dont believe he will - too selfish looking)
Let the race finally begin.
- Aug 9, 2012
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Good questions and answers Python! I remember from the relay, that Sundby was good, but Røthe really skied good. While Martin seemed to be working more, Røthe looked like he was dancing.
Anyway some bad news. Marits optimism was not realistic. Apparently she has a tummy virus. When she came back to the hotel, she developed a fever and had signs of "omgangs syke". I don't know the English or Swedish(Krak sjuka?) term. So she is out of the race.
She and TDS seem destined not to be this year either. Lucky Justyna chickened out, that means Johaug is the favorite.
But others could also compete, since anything can happen. I have high hopes for Weng, but, I would have expected more from her in the sprints. She had bad luck with her starting position on the first sprint, and on the second sprint, she looked like she was empty in the semi. She still has a way to go form wise, but if she comes into top form, she has the potential to match Johaug in Alpe de Cermis in my opinion. Or rather, only need a 15-30 second head start.
But she is still young so time is on her side.
Ps. Happy new year!
Anyway some bad news. Marits optimism was not realistic. Apparently she has a tummy virus. When she came back to the hotel, she developed a fever and had signs of "omgangs syke". I don't know the English or Swedish(Krak sjuka?) term. So she is out of the race.
She and TDS seem destined not to be this year either. Lucky Justyna chickened out, that means Johaug is the favorite.
But others could also compete, since anything can happen. I have high hopes for Weng, but, I would have expected more from her in the sprints. She had bad luck with her starting position on the first sprint, and on the second sprint, she looked like she was empty in the semi. She still has a way to go form wise, but if she comes into top form, she has the potential to match Johaug in Alpe de Cermis in my opinion. Or rather, only need a 15-30 second head start.
But she is still young so time is on her side.
Ps. Happy new year!
- Sep 8, 2009
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- May 5, 2011
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Poltoranin!
To bad about Legkov, but I like Sundby, and it looks like it will be between them for the gc so I am happy about today
To bad about Legkov, but I like Sundby, and it looks like it will be between them for the gc so I am happy about today
- Sep 25, 2009
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happy new year too !ToreBear said:Good questions and answers Python! I remember from the relay, that Sundby was good, but Røthe really skied good. While Martin seemed to be working more, Røthe looked like he was dancing.
Anyway some bad news. Marits optimism was not realistic. Apparently she has a tummy virus. When she came back to the hotel, she developed a fever and had signs of "omgangs syke". I don't know the English or Swedish(Krak sjuka?) term. So she is out of the race.
She and TDS seem destined not to be this year either. Lucky Justyna chickened out, that means Johaug is the favorite.
But others could also compete, since anything can happen. I have high hopes for Weng, but, I would have expected more from her in the sprints. She had bad luck with her starting position on the first sprint, and on the second sprint, she looked like she was empty in the semi. She still has a way to go form wise, but if she comes into top form, she has the potential to match Johaug in Alpe de Cermis in my opinion. Or rather, only need a 15-30 second head start.
But she is still young so time is on her side.
Ps. Happy new year!
the long story short, legkov lost another 20 + seconds to sundby today and imo almost certain to lose the overall, spared some miracle.
poltoranin is a man and half ! (i think THATs how his surname is translated.)
marit exit is surprising. ironically, justyna, i hear decided to enter the last race up the mountain
good race today.
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