Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[ToreBear]

happy new year too !

the long story short, legkov lost another 20 + seconds to sundby today and imo almost certain to lose the overall, spared some miracle.

poltoranin is a man and half ! (i think THATs how his surname is translated.)

marit exit is surprising. ironically, justyna, i hear decided to enter the last race up the mountain

good race today.

Northug said everything went as he thought: Legkov would go for all the bonification and then have nothing left in the end. Sunby actually managed it better, being able to take time off Legkov at the end.

Legkov has improved in classic. 2 years ago one could have counted on him bonking in classic due to his lack of technique and tactical sense. Now it's only the lack of tactical sense holding him back.

But nothing is decided yet, a bad day, bad skies or sickness could change everything.

Poltaranin followed the right tactics in order to win: Don't go for the bonus seconds.

There is an amateur race up the hill before the race. Justyna is apparently entering that.

 

[ToreBear]

Kräksjuk, magsjuka, maginfluensa...... Bad stomach maybe in English.

Gratzie!

 

[ToreBear]

Poltoranin is always great in classic style, that was a brilliant display.

Biggest loser today is clearly Harvey. I wonder if Sundby will solo the Cortina-Toblach course.

I think he will solo up it, the question is how it will go on the downhill and his glide.

He is best in v3 which is the technique best suited on the way up.

 

[python]

He is best in v3 which is the technique best suited on the way up.

you could have meant something else, but i am not sure this sounds right given the common terminology.

v3 (of course there are other equivalent terms) would normally be use for fast cruising on flats or false downhills. almost never going up (unless you have hurricane tailwind and a sale )
it refers to double poling every second time. yes, sundby is very good at it and may survive solo, but the strong chasers bunched together are likely take a major bite off his margin. he'll have to get it back in a tt classic, which is more than plausible.

 

[jsem94]

He means gear 3 as it's referred to in Swedish/Norwegian.

It's the one-skate.

 

[ToreBear]

you could have meant something else, but i am not sure this sounds right given the common terminology.

v3 (of course there are other equivalent terms) would normally be use for fast cruising on flats or false downhills. almost never going up (unless you have hurricane tailwind and a sale )
it refers to double poling every second time. yes, sundby is very good at it and may survive solo, but the strong chasers bunched together are likely take a major bite off his margin. he'll have to get it back in a tt classic, which is more than plausible.

You're right I got my terminology mixed up. I was thinking gear 3.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-country_skiing#Skate_skiing


I don't think his gear 4 is that good, hence I'm not sure how good he will be downhill were being in a bunch is a big benefit. Then again, I never thought he would podium in 2 sprints either.

Uphill in v2(skate3) he is very good, and since he can focus on is own tempo it could go well. The first one of those behind I think can match him on friday is Legkov and he is +1:01.

 

[ToreBear]

He means gear 3 as it's referred to in Swedish/Norwegian.

It's the one-skate.

Yep, gear 3 in Sweden and double dance in Norway.

 

[jsem94]

I thought Johaug would explode today, but she couldn't hold it together. She's still the overwhelming favorite, because of the exit of Bjørgen. Great win for Niskanen though.

Looking good for Jacobsen too, she might finish on the overall podium.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Hope Jacobsen beats Johaug. Johaug is anoying

 

[ToreBear]

I thought Johaug would explode today, but she couldn't hold it together. She's still the overwhelming favorite, because of the exit of Bjørgen. Great win for Niskanen though.

Looking good for Jacobsen too, she might finish on the overall podium.

Johaug said it was a lot easier to ski behind someone. I think she started stressing about not getting a gap, and then her "wheels started spinning". When she is stressed she tends to regress a bit in her technique and her style becomes more "frantic". Also due to her being so light she needs to gain a big gap uphill in order to keep it going downhill.

Niskanen was impressive. Jacobsen is not that good on the alpe. I'm hoping Weng can somehow get a little head start on the final climb. Then it could be interesting.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Suprising results by the young German guys. Hopefully it weren't only the skies.

I fear Angerer is done, though

 

[python]

just for fun, i am going to try predicting the race tactics and the outcome tomorrow. this is half-serious, so if someone disagrees, consider yourself the winner

Starting order, top 15
(the characterizations in the parenthesis are my impressions from fis-sponsored races)

SUNDBY (universal, formerly better at classic, much improved at skating)
HALFVARSSON +31.7 (universal, fair skater)
HARVEY +35.3 (universal, better at skating)
NORTHUG +37.3 ‘a nobody’
CHERNOUSOV +43.2 (universal, slightly better at skating)
POLTORANIN +53.4 (classic preferred, fair skater)
LEGKOV +1:01.0 (top level skater)
JESPERSEN +1:12.4 (universal)
TSCHARNKE +1:18.9 (universal, slightly better at classic)
KROGH +1:21.2 (universal, better skater)
BING +1:21.5 (universal, seems better at classic)
BELOV +1:23.8 (universal, classic preferred)
VOLZHENTSEV +1:25.2 (universal, classic preferred)
JAKS +1:25.2 (universal, better skater)
JAUHOJAERVI +1:31.1 (universal, seems better at classic)

Course profile
(http://www.worldcup-dobbiaco.it/en/the-event/ski-tracks/cortina-toblach/19-129.html, click ‘downloads’)

it is up-up-up at 2.5-3% for 15 k with almost the same gradient down for 20k)

Expected Tactics…

in general, tactics in xc skiing can’t account for too much. a super strong skater on his day can out ski the field. there are many examples. but a smart tactic can help much if calculated and implemented properly. it is dictated by:
- the starting order,
- course profile,
- snow/ski conditions,
- skating proficiency,
- and, not the least, accurate feedback on competitors

Since there are no race radios, live tv or the officials intercom can become a racing weapon. for a pursuit racer, it makes sense to join in with strong skiers in front asap and, depending on the racing goals, conditioning and the feedback, to draft off or work together. For THIS course specifically, the benefit of drafting should be the highest after km 15. The downhill speeds will exceed 30kph vs. about 15 kph uphill. Thus, a strong skater could benefit more from catching on the way up and waiting for the downhill, in stead of dropping the slower group. even pulling up a slightly slower group uphill in order to share at full throttle descent. this is in theory. of course, it depends on many things before it can be put to practice, such as individual uphill speed differences, distance from the summit, current gaps etc). most importantly, it depends on a skier’s tactical acuity (with, for ex., northug =10, poltoranin=9 and legkov...=3).

My projection:

Sundby starts hard and settles into his optimum, threshold pace being constantly fed the gaps behind. half a minute behind, northug quickly catches up to harvey and HALFVARSSON and just sits on them (the canadian and the finn may or may not cooperate, it is utterly irrelevant) . the key to this race, imo, will be the interaction (if not the agreed -before plan) between chernousov, poltOraNin and legkov. the 3 have plenty of reasons to cooperate: polto having an outside crack at being 3d overall and the 2 russians besides being the best pals sharing the refugee status on their national team. plus, the 3 can communicate in the same language.

Cherno is NOT trying to get the trio in front, rather, he settles into his own hard enough pace, knowing that legkov should be able to reach up and bring polto with him. On paper, polto is not as good skating up as legkov and cherno. but the uphill being only 2.5% with enough pain should be fine for the powerful fella to survive to the top, particularly, knowing that the 2 russians let him sit on. Will the legkov co. catch up to the northug co. before the summit ? they may, but i recon if they do, they will have to shed polto. it may be to their disadvantage, as polto is one the best v3-ers in the business. either way, they may calculate he will catch up going down anyways and will push on. if things work as i expect, at most, they may take 15-20 seconds off sundby before the top. I doubt it could be more than that because legkov, visibly, is NOT in the same shape as a year before and sundby is in the shape of his life. the next 20 km is joy ride down. being in the pack and rotating is big advantage. northug may snatch silver in a sprint but i doubt anyone will catch sundby. he should have at least 30 seconds before next race. any other action means little for the real food fight. Krogh and possible belov could move up. several, like harvey last yer may dnf.
---
edit: apologies to HALFVARSSON for calling him a finn. he's a swede !, though, either way, he'd almost certainly understand swedish anyway

 

[Bavarianrider]

just for fun, i am going to try predicting the race tactics and the outcome tomorrow. this is half-serious, so if someone disagrees, consider yourself the winner

Starting order, top 15
(the characterizations in the parenthesis are my impressions from fis-sponsored races)

SUNDBY (universal, formerly better at classic, much improved at skating)
HALFVARSSON +31.7 (universal, fair skater)
HARVEY +35.3 (universal, better at skating)
NORTHUG +37.3 ‘a nobody’
CHERNOUSOV +43.2 (universal, slightly better at skating)
POLTORANIN +53.4 (classic preferred, fair skater)
LEGKOV +1:01.0 (top level skater)
JESPERSEN +1:12.4 (universal)
TSCHARNKE +1:18.9 (universal, slightly better at classic)
KROGH +1:21.2 (universal, better skater)
BING +1:21.5 (universal, seems better at classic)
BELOV +1:23.8 (universal, classic preferred)
VOLZHENTSEV +1:25.2 (universal, classic preferred)
JAKS +1:25.2 (universal, better skater)
JAUHOJAERVI +1:31.1 (universal, seems better at classic)

Course profile
(http://www.worldcup-dobbiaco.it/en/the-event/ski-tracks/cortina-toblach/19-129.html, click ‘downloads’)

it is up-up-up at 2.5-3% for 15 k with almost the same gradient down for 20k)

Expected Tactics…

in general, tactics in xc skiing can’t account for too much. a super strong skater on his day can out ski the field. there are many examples. but a smart tactic can help much if calculated and implemented properly. it is dictated by:
- the starting order,
- course profile,
- snow/ski conditions,
- skating proficiency,
- and, not the least, accurate feedback on competitors

Since there are no race radios, live tv or the officials intercom can become a racing weapon. for a pursuit racer, it makes sense to join in with strong skiers in front asap and, depending on the racing goals, conditioning and the feedback, to draft off or work together. For THIS course specifically, the benefit of drafting should be the highest after km 15. The downhill speeds will exceed 30kph vs. about 15 kph uphill. Thus, a strong skater could benefit more from catching on the way up and waiting for the downhill, in stead of dropping the slower group. even pulling up a slightly slower group uphill in order to share at full throttle descent. this is in theory. of course, it depends on many things before it can be put to practice, such as individual uphill speed differences, distance from the summit, current gaps etc). most importantly, it depends on a skier’s tactical acuity (with, for ex., northug =10, poltoranin=9 and legkov...=3).

My projection:

Sundby starts hard and settles into his optimum, threshold pace being constantly fed the gaps behind. half a minute behind, northug quickly catches up to harvey and HALFVARSSON and just sits on them (the canadian and the finn may or may not cooperate, it is utterly irrelevant) . the key to this race, imo, will be the interaction (if not the agreed -before plan) between chernousov, poltOraNin and legkov. the 3 have plenty of reasons to cooperate: polto having an outside crack at being 3d overall and the 2 russians besides being the best pals sharing the refugee status on their national team. plus, the 3 can communicate in the same language.

Cherno is NOT trying to get the trio in front, rather, he settles into his own hard enough pace, knowing that legkov should be able to reach up and bring polto with him. On paper, polto is not as good skating up as legkov and cherno. but the uphill being only 2.5% with enough pain should be fine for the powerful fella to survive to the top, particularly, knowing that the 2 russians let him sit on. Will the legkov co. catch up to the northug co. before the summit ? they may, but i recon if they do, they will have to shed polto. it may be to their disadvantage, as polto is one the best v3-ers in the business. either way, they may calculate he will catch up going down anyways and will push on. if things work as i expect, at most, they may take 15-20 seconds off sundby before the top. I doubt it could be more than that because legkov, visibly, is NOT in the same shape as a year before and sundby is in the shape of his life. the next 20 km is joy ride down. being in the pack and rotating is big advantage. northug may snatch silver in a sprint but i doubt anyone will catch sundby. he should have at least 30 seconds before next race. any other action means little for the real food fight. Krogh and possible belov could move up. several, like harvey last yer may dnf.

Wow, nice preview.
Gotta be honest, Sundbys performance is getting a bit fishy considering his history. So i am really curious what will happen tommorrow. Normally he should need at least a 45 seconds advantage on the top of the climb. A group of 4-5 guys should have a tremandous advanatge on him on the downhill part.
Given his current condition he'll be in front by more than 1 minute or so on top of the climb which will be enough for him.
My prediction:
1. Sundby
2. Legkov + 40 seconds
3. Harvey +41 seconds
4. Halverson + 42 seconds
5. Poltorranin +45 seconds
6. Chernousov + 60 seconds
7.

 

[python]

Wow, nice preview.
Gotta be honest, Sundbys performance is getting a bit fishy considering his history. So i am really curious what will happen tommorrow. Normally he should need at least a 45 seconds advantage on the top of the climb. A group of 4-5 guys should have a tremandous advanatge on him on the downhill part.
Given his current condition he'll be in front by more than 1 minute or so on top of the climb which will be enough for him.
My prediction:
1. Sundby
2. Legkov + 40 seconds
3. Harvey +41 seconds
4. Halverson + 42 seconds
5. Poltorranin +45 seconds
6. Chernousov + 60 seconds
7.

i understand your concern, and frankly i still have questions about the 90s, but i would not rush prejudging sundby.

i played back several times his skating performances this season. it is visible that his v2 style got smother, he glides longer and his overall statue seems more upright and stable. this is quite consistent with the training he said he did to improve. also, many years ago when he was a rookie, he had the body and the inclination of a promising sprinter. to be later adjusted by a training programme that excelled him in striding. talented, young skiers can make meaningful adjustments to their bodies, particularly to the upper body. . if sundby is one of those thick muscular types, as i suspect he is, he may have just found the right training for his natural built. this, btw may undercut his long distance endurance but it remains to be shown. also, norges have an army of top scientists working with their athletes and they often keep quiet (or deflect) when others are snooping .

either way, it is fun to finally watch the real racing.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Sundby has been said to have worked alot on his top speed into this season hasn't he?
Atleast it shows

 

[ToreBear]

Nice writeup Python! I especially liked your tactical acuity rankings. It gives me something to think about. I have never thought of Polto as tactical, then again, I haven't thought of any ranking either. I've just thought, good vs bad.

I agree about most of what you said, but you neglected to mention one rather important factor: the skies and their glide. I have checked the weather, and it looks like the sun might be shining on the way down with the temperature reaching the difficult 0 degrees area. Skies that are good on the way up might be bad on the way down, so there are potentially difficult choices to be made.

The Norwegians have in the past had variable success with their glide on this stage, so I really hope they have a good ski prep day.

Now to projections.
- I expect chernusov to try to hook on to the group ahead, but will take no turns on the front. When Legkov arrives, he will work depending on Legkov and his own form.

- I suspect Legkov will go full out early(I know, I'm a genius), and will eventually catch up with the group ahead before the downhill starts.

- I doubt polto can hang onto legkov, and if he tries, and bonks we should get an indication that you are overrating his tactical acuity. If he is smart he should save himself for the next group.

I really hope Jespersen doesn't try to hook up with Legkov, since Legkov's early tempo will be very high, and those ten seconds he is behind would be foolish to attempt to bridge. I hope he settles into the big chasing group I see forming with some of those that are up to +1:55(Manificat) give or take a few seconds.

Manificat is magnifique in freestyle and usually excels in this stage. I see him being the rear guard of the last group to gain major time on Sundby.

There are guys behind who might be able to get up if they have a good day, but I doubt it. Perhaps Gjerdalen if he can get up early and glue himself to Manificat.

The 15 skiers from Jahu down to Duviliard contains som excelent freestyle skiers, who I think can take time on Sundby.

I think some of these guys will form the second chase group.

So I see Sundby having about 15 seconds on the chase group and with 15 bonus seconds he should as Python says have about 30 seconds.

At the Finish I see a relaxed Northug, not having done any work, easily outsprint a tired Halvarsson who ends up third.

Cherno and Legkov 4 and 5. If Halvarsson works too much on the stage, he might be beaten by Cherno for 3 and the 5 bonus seconds.

I see the second chasing group with Manificat coming in about 45 seconds behind Sunby.


Let the games begin!




@Bavariander If you are concerned by what Sundby is showing, you might still be more concerned when he performs even better in the weeks ahead.

According to this article:
http://www.nrk.no/sport/varsler-medaljerush-for-sundby-i-ol-1.11446096

Sundby trained heavily in December(90 hours) meaning he has some relaxing to do before he reaches his top form.

I have no concerns over Sundby performances, having seen him develop over the years.

As for the 90s, I have done a lot of resarch, and one of these days I will try to post my arguments in the right thread. I just haven't felt like doing it the last six months.

Ps. Here are the Current TDS standings:
http://data.fis-ski.com/pdf/2014/CC/3180/2014CC3180TDS.pdf

 

[ToreBear]

Sundby has been said to have worked alot on his top speed into this season hasn't he?
Atleast it shows

Yep it does, but he should be given the title Luckiest Looser with the way he advanced in the sprint races. I think he was the Lucky Looser in all of his sprint heats.

 

[Bavarianrider]

I hope Dotzler, Bing, Tscharnke and Filbrich show a solid performance and proof that yesterday wasn't only a result thanks to good skies. After all they'll be the relay for Sochi as it stands.

 

[python]

.....

I agree about most of what you said, but you neglected to mention one rather important factor: the skies and their glide.

i considered in the 3d bullet under the heading 'expected tactics'

- snow/ski conditions,

i hate typing in english, so when i see a post may get too long, and yet i need to catch some important issues, i compress them and separate by a forward slash (/)

I have checked the weather, and it looks like the sun might be shining on the way down with the temperature reaching the difficult 0 degrees area. Skies that are good on the way up might be bad on the way down, so there are potentially difficult choices to be made.

absolutely! a good example, recall, was the last year's world championship when the entire russian team (everyone !) got screwed on the 1st uphill in the time trial won by northug. i researched their problem (i believe i posted it at the time) it was the risk they took by waxing glide wax too thin surely it was worn out quickly and they raced the rest of the race on the bare plastic bases.

regarding polto's tactical acuity, i was mostly having in mind that he wins a lot but seldom from the front outright, even in sprints - usually, like in the classic 15 yesterday, from some tactical positioning in the back. he for example left bonuses to others yesterday and sprung up only when it was needed. he also seldon pushed his limits when he knew it was not his game. he is certainly cagy, like a good farmer, to say the least.

the rest of your post is very thoughtful.

 

[python]

this is just in ...(source: http://www.nrk.no/sport/russer-i-strupen-pa-johnsrud-sundby-1.11446859 )

question: do you think it will be difficult to catch him [sundby], can he stay away ?
chernusov: 'i don't think it will be very difficult. he's alone and we are only a half a minute behind. we'll catch him and he knows that. (then cherno, according to nrk, made the 'kaputt' gesture by passing his fingers across his throat several times, while smiling broadly). note: the kaputt was not in the article- my interpretation- but any european knows exactly the meaning of cherno's jesture.

this was highly unusual of cherno specifically and the russian team in general during THIS tds. i happened to be able to monitor the media re. the tds in most european languages - this was the the absolute first public comment from the russian racers, domestic or foreign, aside from it being so so rude and flagrant...i dont get it.

 

[ToreBear]

this is just in ...(source: http://www.nrk.no/sport/russer-i-strupen-pa-johnsrud-sundby-1.11446859 )

question: do you think it will be difficult to catch him [sundby], can he stay away ?
chernusov: 'i don't think it will be very difficult. he's alone and we are only a half a minute behind. we'll catch him and he knows that. (then cherno, according to nrk, made the 'kaputt' gesture by passing his fingers across his throat several times, while smiling broadly). note: the kaputt was not in the article- my interpretation- but any european knows exactly the meaning of cherno's jesture.

this was highly unusual of cherno specifically and the russian team in general during THIS tds. i happened to be able to monitor the media re. the tds in most european languages - this was the the absolute first public comment from the russian racers, domestic or foreign, aside from it being so so rude and flagrant...i dont get it.

What is it you don't get? They were told they were going hunting for Sundby and played along. All good fun.

 

[ToreBear]

I hope Dotzler, Bing, Tscharnke and Filbrich show a solid performance and proof that yesterday wasn't only a result thanks to good skies. After all they'll be the relay for Sochi as it stands.

Remember that it's freestyle and that everyone will be focused on getting to the end the quickest. There are no bonus seconds to fight for.

The Germans seem to be on the way up, but remember the bonus seconds meant some guys weren't in it. Also missing are guys like Olsson and Rønning. The Germans are progressing nicely, just enjoy their progress.

 

[Ferminal]

Just catching up, already saw the result but was great watching it play out for Poltoranin. Had a lean on Chernousov for the overall before the start and he's looked impressive so far.

IMO a chase group of 5/6 will form fairly quickly with there being no real incentive to force the pace on Northug and Chernousov (who will be waiting for Legkov). Sundby can gain vital time over this period. Whether or not he stays away may depend on how strong the Russians are, but I think they have every incentive to chase. 30+ seconds for Sundby is far more dangerous than 15 on a vulnerable Northug. Not that I'd rule out the possibility of Northug being dropped or at least cooked before the sprint.

I will go Harvey, Northug, Chernousov with it breaking up over the lap of the circuit.

 

[python]

fermi, cherno would have a realistic chance to win overall ONLY if the tds ended right where the steep part of alp cermis begins. according to split analysis by woldofXC.com, cherno lost more that a minute to his pal last year in just those 3 kms. he is a fine climber, and actually much shorter and lighter than legkov, but he simply lacks the huge engine of his pal.

as to anyone having a chance to drop northug today, which i doubt will happen, though id be very entertained to watch, there is a proven formula. it was done by cologna just when the steepest part begun. it is only 3% and starts at km 4. one has to wind up pace to about 22km there and stay there for about 2-3 minutes. only manificat, legkov helner, cologna and perhaps bauer can do it of today's crop of huge engines.

 

[maltiv]

To me, this stage is the best skiing race of the season. Beautiful sceneries, a decent distance and they actually go from A to B instead of going in circles. Hopefully the racing will be good as well

I believe Sundby will stay away, but only just.