Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[BullsFan22]

If Shipulin treated the individual races like they were relays or mixed relays, he would already be a legend. Ok, maybe I am being too harsh on him, but look at his record in Hochfilzen 2017: mixed relay bronze (less tactics from him and Fourcade in the final lap could have caught Schempp and then Fourcade cut him off, taking the silver from him), then he finished 21st in the sprint, 4th in the pursuit (an excellent race, but one less miss and he is in the medals, or more), 7th in the individual with two misses (one less and he wins the race), the Russkies win the relay, and he finished 4th in the mass start (two misses again, and he skis a dynamite final lap to again outlast Fourcade and come close to the medals.) Despite a bronze and gold here, with a bit of luck he could have won 3 or 4 gold medals. I know that these types of clichés are a big part of biathlon and I could say similar of a number of athletes (a great example is the Italian team-great form, just no fortune-except for Runggaldier in the individual, they should have won at least 3 medals...) My point was that Shipulin is a team player and he always rises to the occasion in the team events and head to head racing. Just a pity he couldn't snatch another gold or two.

Apart from JT Boe and OEB, the Norwegian biathletes were very, very poor. Quite a contrast to last year in Oslo, where they were the only ones challenging Fourcade and their women were all in form. It's like a totally different team this year. Eckhoff skied well, but couldn't hit the ocean. Svendsen and Tarjei Boe have had issues all season. It could be the asthma gate that has cast a shadow on the xc team, it could be something else...

The Austrians, good on them, a bronze in the relay and mass start (Eder) this weekend was a nice way to end a rather poor championships for them. I expected more from Landertinger, Hauser and even Eberhard, but I think he did ok, considering his inconsistency on the shooting range.

Makarainen and Wierer were disappointing. Unfortunately Wierer's ski form was not that great. Kaisa snagged a medal yesterday, but I think she was hoping for more. Having said that, when Dahlmeier sweeps the way she did, it's hard for anyone to do much.

Bailey and Dunklee's performances were a breakthrough for the Americans. Bailey said that before the season started this would be his last, but he'll go for the Olympics next year. Great shooting from him. He's had a career year in terms of consistency and peaking for the world's, at the age of 35, what's more.

The Germans dominated. Not only Dahlmeier won, though winning 5 golds in one championships tends to overshadow anyone else on that team. Doll and Schempp winning was just icing on the cake.

Huh . . Shipulin was in good shape, but he was never close to 3 or 4 gold medals. It would have been more likely that Johannes had ended up with 3 gold and 1 silver instead of "just" 3 silvers.

I also partly disagree with your assesment of the Norwegian men. I don't think you could have expected anything more from Tarjei, coming into this championship with only two IBU-cup races in his legs. He did quite well. Problem was that Emil just didn't hit the great shape he showed during early January and that the whole team underperformed terribly in the relay.
Norway's biggest problem is still on the women's side. The fact that Eckhoff's decent ski-speed is the most positive thing to say about the performance of the Norwegian women tells the whole story.

Shipulin was 4th in the pursuit after finishing 21st in the sprint, 33 seconds out of the win, a handful seconds out of 2nd. In the sprint, he had three misses, one less and he would have been more in the thick of it and that much closer in the pursuit. In the mixed relay, the first race, the Russians finished third, with him skiing an excellent final leg, matching Fourcade stride for stride and Fourcade needed some rather dirty racing to hold him off at the finish. Plus, had Fourcade not played the nonsense tactics, they would have had a real shot catching Schempp and if that happened, Schempp wouldn't have had a chance in the final drag to the line. In the individual, Shipulin missed two shots in the first shooting. Then he cleaned the next three rounds. One less miss and he would have been world champion. Then the Russians won the relay. He finished fourth, again, not far off and with two misses. 1 gold, 1 bronze, 2 fourth place finishes, and a seventh. It's not far fetched to think that he could have won more than one gold.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re: Re:

After all the concerns about fourcade dominating, the men's races victories were spread out. And it was the women's that turned into a procession. Expect marit and mjs to ruin the spectacle next week.

I think the incident with the Russians may have played a role, despite getting some medals, Fourcade didn't do as well as he probably wanted.

Bjoergen and Sundby look like they will dominate Lahti. The only race the Bjoergen will have a hard time is the sprint, where it looks like it will be another one on one between Nilsson and Falla. Bjoergen is a better classic skier and the sprint being skate this year will not help her. I expect the Norwegians to win the relay and with no Johaug, the 30km and 15km skiathlon will be interesting. I hope Kalla is in form. The 30km should be good for her, even though I think a 15km or 10km skate is where she is at her best.

Sundby will have a tougher time no doubt.

Cologna DNS because of lower back/glutes pain, I hope that he'll be fine for the WC, but he traveled home to Switzerland and could skip all the classic races (yes, even the skiathlon).
Many teams had bad skis and problems with the conditions, the Finnish team should be stronger, Bessmertnykh could always get a medal in the classic races and Poltoranin also seems to be back on track, he looked smooth.
No idea what to expect from Krogh in the non-sprint races, maybe someone like Sedov could surpise people in the skating races and in the skiathlon.
No idea what to expect from De Fabiani he was pretty strong durning the 2nd half of the TdS, even if he had a bit of a meltdown on the final Alpe Cermis stage, maybe he can surprise us.

Cologna has had injury concerns since that ankle injury in Fall of 2013, where he missed the first month and half of the season to heal and recover. Last season he dropped out of a couple races (including the Holmenkollen 50). His sprinting has noticeably worsened the last few years and he hasn't been to his old self since Sochi, exactly three years ago. I too hope he'll be fine but I just don't see him winning races.

You are right, skis were a major issue. People were slipping and sliding all over the course, anytime the course went even slightly uphill. Those that had decent kick would do well. Bessmertnykh will be a contender for the 15km and I am certain the Russians will put him in the relay. Poltoranin is slowly getting his form back, after losing a lot of time due to sickness earlier in the season. The 15km classic is where he'll excel. The course is tough and there is a lot of striding and Poltoranin is one of the very best in that business. Krogh's form has been up and down this year. He dropped out of the tour de ski but then had ok results, but he was better earlier in the season. Northug is saying that the two races he'll likely do in Lahti are the ones where he is the defending champion and one's where Norway will have an extra spot, the sprint and the 50km. Krogh will certainly do the sprint, and I am guessing the anchor leg in the relay (maybe Klaebo will have something to say about that). Northug has ruled himself out. The other starters are Dyrhaug (probably the skiathlon, 50km and/or the 15km classic). Sundby will race everything but the sprint events. Sjur Roethe the 50km and maybe the skiathlon and/or the third leg of the relay. Toenseth the 15km, probably one of the classic legs of the relay (like Sundby), and potentially the skiathlon. Iversen the 15km, and after that I am not sure where he'll figure. Gloeersen will do the 50km and maybe one of the skate legs of the relay. By virtue of his third place in Otepaa, perhaps Holund will get a place in Lahti, though it seems unlikely.

De Fabiani is an excellent classic skier, so the 15km is what he'll be aiming for. Then it's the skiathlon, the relay and even the team sprint (this year held in classic style) could suit him. He hasn't had form he had last season, but he'll do ok.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

If Shipulin treated the individual races like they were relays or mixed relays, he would already be a legend. Ok, maybe I am being too harsh on him, but look at his record in Hochfilzen 2017: mixed relay bronze (less tactics from him and Fourcade in the final lap could have caught Schempp and then Fourcade cut him off, taking the silver from him), then he finished 21st in the sprint, 4th in the pursuit (an excellent race, but one less miss and he is in the medals, or more), 7th in the individual with two misses (one less and he wins the race), the Russkies win the relay, and he finished 4th in the mass start (two misses again, and he skis a dynamite final lap to again outlast Fourcade and come close to the medals.) Despite a bronze and gold here, with a bit of luck he could have won 3 or 4 gold medals. I know that these types of clichés are a big part of biathlon and I could say similar of a number of athletes (a great example is the Italian team-great form, just no fortune-except for Runggaldier in the individual, they should have won at least 3 medals...) My point was that Shipulin is a team player and he always rises to the occasion in the team events and head to head racing. Just a pity he couldn't snatch another gold or two.

Apart from JT Boe and OEB, the Norwegian biathletes were very, very poor. Quite a contrast to last year in Oslo, where they were the only ones challenging Fourcade and their women were all in form. It's like a totally different team this year. Eckhoff skied well, but couldn't hit the ocean. Svendsen and Tarjei Boe have had issues all season. It could be the asthma gate that has cast a shadow on the xc team, it could be something else...

The Austrians, good on them, a bronze in the relay and mass start (Eder) this weekend was a nice way to end a rather poor championships for them. I expected more from Landertinger, Hauser and even Eberhard, but I think he did ok, considering his inconsistency on the shooting range.

Makarainen and Wierer were disappointing. Unfortunately Wierer's ski form was not that great. Kaisa snagged a medal yesterday, but I think she was hoping for more. Having said that, when Dahlmeier sweeps the way she did, it's hard for anyone to do much.

Bailey and Dunklee's performances were a breakthrough for the Americans. Bailey said that before the season started this would be his last, but he'll go for the Olympics next year. Great shooting from him. He's had a career year in terms of consistency and peaking for the world's, at the age of 35, what's more.

The Germans dominated. Not only Dahlmeier won, though winning 5 golds in one championships tends to overshadow anyone else on that team. Doll and Schempp winning was just icing on the cake.

Huh . . Shipulin was in good shape, but he was never close to 3 or 4 gold medals. It would have been more likely that Johannes had ended up with 3 gold and 1 silver instead of "just" 3 silvers.

I also partly disagree with your assesment of the Norwegian men. I don't think you could have expected anything more from Tarjei, coming into this championship with only two IBU-cup races in his legs. He did quite well. Problem was that Emil just didn't hit the great shape he showed during early January and that the whole team underperformed terribly in the relay.
Norway's biggest problem is still on the women's side. The fact that Eckhoff's decent ski-speed is the most positive thing to say about the performance of the Norwegian women tells the whole story.

Shipulin was 4th in the pursuit after finishing 21st in the sprint, 33 seconds out of the win, a handful seconds out of 2nd. In the sprint, he had three misses, one less and he would have been more in the thick of it and that much closer in the pursuit. In the mixed relay, the first race, the Russians finished third, with him skiing an excellent final leg, matching Fourcade stride for stride and Fourcade needed some rather dirty racing to hold him off at the finish. Plus, had Fourcade not played the nonsense tactics, they would have had a real shot catching Schempp and if that happened, Schempp wouldn't have had a chance in the final drag to the line. In the individual, Shipulin missed two shots in the first shooting. Then he cleaned the next three rounds. One less miss and he would have been world champion. Then the Russians won the relay. He finished fourth, again, not far off and with two misses. 1 gold, 1 bronze, 2 fourth place finishes, and a seventh. It's not far fetched to think that he could have won more than one gold.

You are right about the mixed relay. It could also be argued, that had Landertinger shot clean on the last shooting in the relay, Austria would have taken relay gold instead of Russia.

 

[Singer01]

How dominant does everyone expect Norway to be at the XC? Over the last 3 World Championships they have won 8,7,9 out of 12 Gold medals, I can't see them falling much below that at this championship, even without Johaug, and Northug being off form.

 

[python]

since the norge dominance imo is not good for the sport's future, i would rephrase the question above as who is likely to podium in all disciplines including the norwegian competitors...

clearly several skiers have demonstrated such form, that them NOT winning at least 1-2 medals would be a sensation. among them stina (individual sprint, perhaps skiathlon), bjoergen ( skiathlon, 10k indiv., relay, 30K), kalla (10k, relay...), ustiougov (sprint, skiathlon, relay), sundby (15k ind, relay, 50K), klaebo (sprint, team sprint), hellner (if he's up to his potential: relay, 50k) etc etc.

i did not mention several finns, norges, swedes and russians who are quite capable to end up with a medal. niskanen, bessmertyck, iversen, krogh, halfvarsson are quite capable to take a podium. too many unknowns to sort out to bet on them more odds than those above.... but i hope the fewer norges among them, the better for the sports future.

the russians are clearly undermined by the absence of petu, vyleg, belov and legkov, but they are replacing them with some very promising youth...one of them, chervotkin, imo can podium in the 50k.

 

[ToreBear]

Re:

How dominant does everyone expect Norway to be at the XC? Over the last 3 World Championships they have won 8,7,9 out of 12 Gold medals, I can't see them falling much below that at this championship, even without Johaug, and Northug being off form.

On the Womens side I would say they have the favorite in everything but the sprint. They also have several who can win if a presumed favorite(I.E. Bjørgen) has a bad day.

On the menns side it's much more difficult to predict. In my thinking there is a list about who might win this or that event. But the list is long. Buuut, there are a lot of Norwegians on that list. So you can say they have more lottery tickets because of their depth.

One unknown in my mind is Sundby. On the one hand he has struggled in championships(form, health, skiis, always something), but on the other hand his whole season has been about getting a championship gold(I.E. not being at his best at the TDS). So if he hits his form, he could be a lead favorite.

Buut, the thing to remember is that the "smaller" nations tend to focus more on championships than the regular world cup. So their elevation should make the Norwegians look less dominant.

Of course, the Norwegians always seem to screw up big time waxing wise on one or more events. But hopefully not as badly as they messed up in Sochi.

I'm kind of wondering if the Germans will leave a spot for another nation on the podium in Nordic combined. They have been outstanding this season.

 

[Singer01]

Re:

since the norge dominance imo is not good for the sport's future, i would rephrase the question above as who is likely to podium in all disciplines including the norwegian competitors...

clearly several skiers have demonstrated such form, that them NOT winning at least 1-2 medals would be a sensation. among them stina (individual sprint, perhaps skiathlon), bjoergen ( skiathlon, 10k indiv., relay, 30K), kalla (10k, relay...), ustiougov (sprint, skiathlon, relay), sundby (15k ind, relay, 50K), klaebo (sprint, team sprint), hellner (if he's up to his potential: relay, 50k) etc etc.

i did not mention several finns, norges, swedes and russians who are quite capable to end up with a medal. niskanen, bessmertyck, iversen, krogh, halfvarsson are quite capable to take a podium. too many unknowns to sort out to bet on them more odds than those above.... but i hope the fewer norges among them, the better for the sports future.

the russians are clearly undermined by the absence of petu, vyleg, belov and legkov, but they are replacing them with some very promising youth...one of them, chervotkin, imo can podium in the 50k.

Odd that you didn't name the women's overall tour leader, but I totally agree. I could see Weng finishing top 4 or 5 in every event she competes in, but not medalling in any (other than the relay).

 

[python]

Re: Re:

since the norge dominance imo is not good for the sport's future, i would rephrase the question above as who is likely to podium in all disciplines including the norwegian competitors...

clearly several skiers have demonstrated such form, that them NOT winning at least 1-2 medals would be a sensation. among them stina (individual sprint, perhaps skiathlon), bjoergen ( skiathlon, 10k indiv., relay, 30K), kalla (10k, relay...), ustiougov (sprint, skiathlon, relay), sundby (15k ind, relay, 50K), klaebo (sprint, team sprint), hellner (if he's up to his potential: relay, 50k) etc etc.

i did not mention several finns, norges, swedes and russians who are quite capable to end up with a medal. niskanen, bessmertyck, iversen, krogh, halfvarsson are quite capable to take a podium. too many unknowns to sort out to bet on them more odds than those above.... but i hope the fewer norges among them, the better for the sports future.

the russians are clearly undermined by the absence of petu, vyleg, belov and legkov, but they are replacing them with some very promising youth...one of them, chervotkin, imo can podium in the 50k.

Odd that you didn't name the women's overall tour leader, but I totally agree. I could see Weng finishing top 4 or 5 in every event she competes in, but not medalling in any (other than the relay).

you have a point. i probably should have mentioned heidi. but when thinking about the post i was primarily having in mind those who have impressed in the last 2 weeks, as opposed to the season-long results. it's a more reliable indication of what they were likely to bring to lahti. weng will likely medal in team sprint and (almost guaranteed) in relay. both could very well be golds. but she is very emotional, sometimes uneven and i would not overestimate her odds in the non-team events.

i also should have given more credit to the finns as the host nation should know something about the course and the snow structure that other teams may not.

 

[May0maniac]

Cologna wil only race the relay and the 50km, he'll skip all the racces that include classic sking because of his muscle problems (lower back, glutes and calf muscle, but apparently the old calf muscle problem is the main reason).
Source: https://www.srf.ch/sport/mehr-sport/langlauf/cologna-an-der-wm-nur-mit-2-einsaetzen

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

since the norge dominance imo is not good for the sport's future, i would rephrase the question above as who is likely to podium in all disciplines including the norwegian competitors...

clearly several skiers have demonstrated such form, that them NOT winning at least 1-2 medals would be a sensation. among them stina (individual sprint, perhaps skiathlon), bjoergen ( skiathlon, 10k indiv., relay, 30K), kalla (10k, relay...), ustiougov (sprint, skiathlon, relay), sundby (15k ind, relay, 50K), klaebo (sprint, team sprint), hellner (if he's up to his potential: relay, 50k) etc etc.

i did not mention several finns, norges, swedes and russians who are quite capable to end up with a medal. niskanen, bessmertyck, iversen, krogh, halfvarsson are quite capable to take a podium. too many unknowns to sort out to bet on them more odds than those above.... but i hope the fewer norges among them, the better for the sports future.

the russians are clearly undermined by the absence of petu, vyleg, belov and legkov, but they are replacing them with some very promising youth...one of them, chervotkin, imo can podium in the 50k.

The Russians are weakened without Legkov and co, but they still have a strong team. For the current form the skiers have shown this season, it's probably as well a group as they could have picked without the suspended skiers. Ustiugov is obviously their main hope. If he is in good form and skis well tactically, he could pick up multiple medals, even multiple gold medals. Bessmertnykh is one of many that can fight for the podium in the 15km, Retivykh and Parfenov have had good seasons and can be dangerous in the sprint (though as outsiders), Sedov has had a long road back to the top, and if hopefully the bad race in Otepaa was only a small blimp on his radar. He could be a player in the skiathlon and the Russians could put him in the third leg of the relay. Turyshev is a solid, consistent racer, but I don't see him medaling. Volzhentsev could surprise in the 15km (as he did in 2011 Oslo, where he finished 4th, and has made the World Cup podium before) and if he skis well enough, could be there alongside Bessmertnykh. The youngsters on the team, Chervotkin (21) and Bolshunov (barely 20), are real talents. Chervotkin is very good at skating and Bolshunov is a real all rounder that can develop into a Ustiugov/Northug/Cologna-someone that can deal with sprints AND distance. I think they still have chances to win multiple medals.

The women I am not sure about, it's a young team. Matveeva has a chance in the sprint and team sprint (probably will ski that with Belorukova). Sedova and Chekaleva had good races in Otepaa. Actually Sedova had the best WC race of her young career. I expect a lot from her. They have a decent shot at a medal in the relay, but all four will have to ski well. I think if the Russians were to pin their hopes on anyone it would be Matveeva in the sprint and team sprint and the relay, with Chekaleva possibly doing something in the distance races, though the Norwegians and Kalla will, I think, be very tough for everyone to beat. The rest of the team is built for the future.

 

[python]

^^we are going to see in the morning...the start lists have been published for several hours now....the conditions tomorrow are also confidant - winterly.

i an going to hope for a great spectacle.

i am confident that ustiougov will podium. i'd like him to win but can't be sure due to a very serious competion... i'd like to see stina winning more than anything. i think a 90% chance she will. i'd like the russians to deliver a 'fork everyone' performance, but doubt anyone besides ustiuogov can...

the hard, cold conditions tomorow favour ustiuogov, stina, claebo, falla....or anyone heavier than average.

 

[Gracey]

Re:

^^i'd like to see stina winning more than anything. i think a 90% chance she will.

A Nilsson victory is such a yawn.

Agree with the odds, but hoping its not her, Kikkan Randall or Jessica Diggins.

 

[Põhja Konn]

For the best part of the last 20 years, any day Norwegians get beaten at XC-skiing is a good day. In that regard, nothing has changed this winter. Unfortunately, the races at Otepää showed that there might not be too many of those good days coming in Lahti. Hopefully today Nilsson and Ustjugov do their thing and give us all a reason to celebrate.

Just to clarify, I have nothing against Norway or Norwegians in general. Only in the narrow context of the sport of XC skiing their own actions and attitude have long time ago eroded any sort of good will there once was.

 

[ToreBear]

For the best part of the last 20 years, any day Norwegians get beaten at XC-skiing is a good day. In that regard, nothing has changed this winter. Unfortunately, the races at Otepää showed that there might not be too many of those good days coming in Lahti. Hopefully today Nilsson and Ustjugov do their thing and give us all a reason to celebrate.

Just to clarify, I have nothing against Norway or Norwegians in general. Only in the narrow context of the sport of XC skiing their own actions and attitude have long time ago eroded any sort of good will there once was.

Could you elaborate on your feelings towards the Norwegians in XC skiing? I have heard some similar sentiments before, but when asked to elaborate, the answers are not rooted in what I see as reality.

 

[ToreBear]

I kind off hope Stina wins. The Swedes get real pissy if they don't start out well, and that usually means a lot of moaning about the Norwegians(more than normal that is).

The snow conditions seem to be a bit loose, and that might not benefit Stina. I hope she doesn't fall and most of all if she does, I hope there is no Norwegian involved.

Hopefully there are no big falls or crashes. Looking at the profile with the long downhill at the end, that means good downhillers like Diggins and Bjørgen might benefit.
http://www.lahti2017.fi/en/course-maps-and-profiles

 

[python]

...ustiougov is killing everyone so far in the quals....only 1/3 finished, but he beheaded all the norge brass with the best krogh in 2nd almost 3 seconds back. northug just finishedd 10 sec back.

fun so far. falla won the quals with stina firmly in and no big worries

 

[python]

...men just finished the quals. the 1st thing that jumps at you in the top 30 is that the finns performed splendidly !! all 4 are in with good times. the 2nd immediate impression is the swedes did not do so good, with calle the highest placed in 12th. still 3 made and westberg didn't...the 3d surprise, and i am not afraid to overstress it, was that a youngster brought over in the last minute - bolshunov- was very high, the 8th. i just watched him at the youth worlds, where he won a skiathlon. looks like the rus is getting another all-rounder with the sprinting streak into the worlds elite. the kid is barely 20, like klaebo...

 

[Kokoso]

I fear this isn't Stina's (victorious) day.

 

[kingjr]

Northug is in Ustiugov's heat. He knows he can't win himself, so I'm interested to see whether he'll try and get into Ustiugov's way to clear a path for the other Norwegians.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

Northug is in Ustiugov's heat. He knows he can't win himself, so I'm interested to see whether he'll try and get into Ustiugov's way to clear a path for the other Norwegians.

That's what Arild Monsen was saying, try to put in two Norwegians in one or two heats and cause havoc.

 

[Põhja Konn]

For the best part of the last 20 years, any day Norwegians get beaten at XC-skiing is a good day. In that regard, nothing has changed this winter. Unfortunately, the races at Otepää showed that there might not be too many of those good days coming in Lahti. Hopefully today Nilsson and Ustjugov do their thing and give us all a reason to celebrate.

Just to clarify, I have nothing against Norway or Norwegians in general. Only in the narrow context of the sport of XC skiing their own actions and attitude have long time ago eroded any sort of good will there once was.

Could you elaborate on your feelings towards the Norwegians in XC skiing? I have heard some similar sentiments before, but when asked to elaborate, the answers are not rooted in what I see as reality.

Simply put, it is a perception of Norwegian skiers getting preferential treatment to an extent where effectively a different set of rules are applied to them compared to their rivals. Asthma-gate is a perfect illustration for this.

The same impression of one athlete or team dominating with a help of powers that be, was the thing that mostly influenced my opinion about Armstrong and also does now with Sky and Froome.

 

[kingjr]

That finish looks great for Pellegrino. I may have to retract my statement, maybe Northug can in fact win, because he is one of the few who is not dumb as a brick.

 

[Põhja Konn]

I'm afraid Ustjugov wasted too much energy in that heat, but you never know with him. Northug is evidently back in form, long time since he showed such kick in the end.

 

[kingjr]

How about this, Krogh, Klaebo or Northug win the M sprint, Falla W, the rest is for Sundby, Björgen and Weng.

 

[ToreBear]

Arg, thats not good.