Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[python]

as much as i dont like saying it, klaebo will not lose anything to either bolshu nor ustiougov on the hill tomorrow.

looking at his classic distance performances, he was not supposed to win today. he did. grandpa holds the secret ?

 

[BullsFan22]

Looking at the stats from last year, Sundby had the fastest climb. Bolshunov had the 34th, 1:42 behind Sundby. Tomorrow Sundby will start 1:44 behind Bolshunov.

Ustiugov didn't start the last stage because of back problems. Two seasons ago when he won, he easily held off Sundby. Sundby finished the overall tour 1:02 behind Ustiugov, but only gained 12 seconds on the Russian on the climb. Manificat had the fastest hill climb, 44 seconds faster than Sundby, 56 over Ustiugov. Krüger, a danger man for tomorrow, had the 11th fastest hill climb, 24 seconds faster than Ustiugov. That could be an indicator, though again, Ustiugov isn't as strong as he was in 2017, while Krüger is better than two years ago. Having said that, the second fastest hill climb in 2017 was skied by Bessmertnykh, only two seconds behind Manificat!! Make of that as you wish.

Klaebo will not be caught. Ustiugov will likely not relinquish his 2nd place, but if Bolshunov blows up as he did last year on the final climb, then anyone from 4th (De Fabiani) to I think 10th (Spitsov) could challenge for the 3rd spot. De Fabiani is 57 seconds behind Bolshunov. Spitsov is 1:45 behind his teammate. 6-10 are separated by 4 seconds and Krüeger is 22 ahead of Spitsov. All of them are excellent skate skiers and can climb. De Fabiani may, may hold on to his 4th position if he doesn't lose any time before the climb starts. I think it'll be a fascinating race for the the third spot. If Bolshunov skis ok, he could hold on, but as I mentioned earlier, he could blow up again and lose several spots, maybe drop all the way to 10th.

After that, Halfvarsson is also a big guy and I don't see him making up too much ground. Cologna will likely catch the Swede, but he isn't in the same form as he's been at every other tour. I also wonder who will do the work in the group behind De Fabiani. Spitsov may not, simply because he has two teammates fighting for a podium, though he himself has an outside shot. The Norwegians will definitely work to catch those in front.

 

[Vroome.exe]

Re:

as much as i dont like saying it, klaebo will not lose anything to either bolshu nor ustiougov on the hill tomorrow.

looking at his classic distance performances, he was not supposed to win today. he did. grandpa holds the secret ?

Did you really look at anything? When in good form, Klaebo is one of the best classic skiers over 15km. He showed that last year by winning a few of them, including interval start.

 

[python]

Re: Re:

as much as i dont like saying it, klaebo will not lose anything to either bolshu nor ustiougov on the hill tomorrow.

looking at his classic distance performances, he was not supposed to win today. he did. grandpa holds the secret ?

Did you really look at anything? When in good form, Klaebo is one of the best classic skiers over 15km. He showed that last year by winning a few of them, including interval start.

did you really examine his classic records 10 years ago, genious ? he won plenty then. as relevant as your ignorance of his THIS YEAR distance record. 'when is good shape' is a red hearing applicable to ANY skier, genius...

 

[kingjr]

Oh well, he said a while ago that his best shape was stils some way off, he's apparently getting there now. He didn't have to do all that much either, it's not like he blew the race apart.

 

[python]

and what would you say IF he did blow the race apart ?

and why the banal ready-to-use phrase used by every single athlete in preparation for a major even some month away, would suddennly become anything more than a standard catchphrase when uttered by klaebo ?

i read that just about every skier is aiming for the worlds to have their shape in peak. klaebo included. and most are 'getting there'.

but when he wins almost all wc sprints last and this year, it is expected he won them at the tour. very natural and expected.

but when the same guy wins only ONE classic distance race in 2 years (prior to today) and mostly placing way outside podium in distance races, it is fair to call it his win today unexpected.

absolutely does not mean he's a mediocre distance racer or did not deserve his win. but he does NOT have the record to be called 'one of the best classics skiers' like, say, poltoranin.

i dont want to say more or less.

 

[kingjr]

If it was unexpected for you, that's certainly fair enough.

 

[DenisMenchov]

So, is there any discipline that will substitute Skiathlon at Worlds?

 

[Vroome.exe]

He won more than one, I can remember at least three off my head. And that's from last season, more than anybody on this tour since then. He started slowly this year but how can you say he's on bad form right now when he's won 3 out of 5 races in this tour before today.

 

[DenisMenchov]

You can't seriously count the pursuit stage as a win. He only beat Usiugov and wheelsucked him the whole time. His time was nowhere close to being the fastest.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

You can't seriously count the pursuit stage as a win. He only beat Usiugov and wheelsucked him the whole time. His time was nowhere close to being the fastest.

If that is your reasoning, then I suppose you have no reservations about awarding the pursuit stage win to the inseparable duo consisting of Sundby and 'Majka-jam' ?

 

[DenisMenchov]

Re: Re:

You can't seriously count the pursuit stage as a win. He only beat Usiugov and wheelsucked him the whole time. His time was nowhere close to being the fastest.

If that is your reasoning, then I suppose you have no reservations about awarding the pursuit stage win to the inseparable duo consisting of Sundby and 'Majka-jam' ?

Yes, they'll do it tomorrow.

 

[python]

it's staring in 2 minutes. we all know who would have won today, had she been there...

we kind of know who is likely to take 1-2 based on the standings and gaps, but that's far from certain. giving to my habit of playing with numbers, for the 1st time, i googled the contender girls weight/height. here goes....take it for wha's internet is or may be, though, on a sanity check all numbers jive with the tv proportions, imo.

Oestberg: 165 cm, 56 kg
Nepryeyeva170 cm, 63kg
parmakoski: 160 cm, 56 kg
beloroukova 168 cm, 55 kg
diggins: 162 cm, 58kg

i was skeptical of beloroukova until i saw her feather weight.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Well as expected Klaebo suffered big time today.
2 Sprints, one 15km race on a fast and easy track, two pointless races in Oberstdorf. Klaebo won the Tour that was tailor made for him.
Krüger was flying today

 

[John de Savage]

60 bonus seconds per sprint race and 45 per mass start is way excessive. Especially when there isn't a single race above 15k. What are FIS thinking with the gazillion bonus secs? It aint conducive to an exciting race.

 

[bambino]

Today was brutal in all aspects, let's see who made it too hard in regards the rest of the season.

The conditions didn't make it any easier, i.e. Östberg's time was +3m slower than Weng last year and Röthe's almost 2m compared to Sundby year earlier. The wind made it extra hard and you could see that in some skiers.

Edit. Not sure though if the track was exactly the same as previous years.

 

[BullsFan22]

I agree with the distances. I've said a number of times that they need to go back to the 'roots' and have the short prologue, a classic sprint (though I think they rarely had them in the tour to begin with, the last one being three years ago and before that in 2012. The first year (2007) I think was a good mixture. Sprinting in the Münich Olympic Stadium, then a 20km skiathlon in Oberstdorf, followed by a 15km individual classic, then sprint in Asiago, with the final two races in Val Di Fiemme, a 30km (!!!) classic mass start and the final climb on the last day. That's a healthy mixture of distances and basically 3 classic and 3 skate races.

2010 was the first year they used the 30-35 km point to point Cortina to Toblach handicap race. I think they need to bring that back next year, especially if the snow conditions are good. If they have two sprints, one of them needs to be classic. They can have the individual race after the sprint be classic.

The bonuses, well, that's been around for a while. I don't think they'll change that.

 

[python]

a couple of parting afterthoughts...

btw, agree with john, it was my beef for a long time that sprinting bonuses are disproportionately high compared to distance bonuses. really, a multi-day tour should even out the cost of daring.

1. that klaebo did not hold back today is a fair conclusion. would he be a tad faster if he did not have 1:20 to fall back onto ? perhaps, but his suffering was for everyone to see which leads to my 2nd point...
2. Ustiougov would have won today if the russians had organized even a half-azzed team work yesterday. why is it so ? my guess is b/c unlike most teams, they dont have a head national coach on site to tell everyone what to do. technically, vialbe is the head coach but she sits in russia and onsite you have competing groups of 3-4 national team coaches: kramer, borodavko, perevozikov etc. such mess, was NOT possible in the old times, but that's the way it was...in both classic races btw.
3. why klaebo suffered so much on the hill ? his grandpa probably knows, but i am allowed to speculate..for one, he lacks experience. it is very important indeed. Yet i'd guess equally important was perhaps that he's built is as pure a sprinter as the sport probably had seen. northug was of the same mold and despite tonnes of experience he NEVER did anything remarkable. the proportion of fast twitch muscles during an extended high intensity effort probably causes acidosis in such types quicker than those endowned with slow twitches. sort of cavendish parallel to cycling ?
4. i am very happy for oestberg. she was plain superior despite the valiant efforts of the young russians. she's also a nice, humble young lady i can greatly respect unlike some other norwegian girls. a finnish coach in a swedish paper opined today, that her distance successes are due to ...reduction in the size of her thighs :idea: may be. which bring me to my last point
5. watch out for nepryaeva ! she showed incredible aerobic fitness and plenty of sprint skills. imagine, if like oestberg, she reduced her thighs just a tad ?

 

[Bavarianrider]

I agree with the distances. I've said a number of times that they need to go back to the 'roots' and have the short prologue, a classic sprint (though I think they rarely had them in the tour to begin with, the last one being three years ago and before that in 2012. The first year (2007) I think was a good mixture. Sprinting in the Münich Olympic Stadium, then a 20km skiathlon in Oberstdorf, followed by a 15km individual classic, then sprint in Asiago, with the final two races in Val Di Fiemme, a 30km (!!!) classic mass start and the final climb on the last day. That's a healthy mixture of distances and basically 3 classic and 3 skate races.

2010 was the first year they used the 30-35 km point to point Cortina to Toblach handicap race. I think they need to bring that back next year, especially if the snow conditions are good. If they have two sprints, one of them needs to be classic. They can have the individual race after the sprint be classic.

The bonuses, well, that's been around for a while. I don't think they'll change that.

Honestly I fear that they will make distances even shorter in the future. Although distances were short the gapswere still pretty huge and apart for place 3 in the mens race there were hardly any interesting Position battles on the last day. Hence I fear that in the logic of FIS this will only mean even shorter distance in the race.

Personally I would design it like this: 6 stages, 2rest days

1. sprint (classic)
2. 15km individual start (freestyle)
rest day
3. sprint (freestyle)
4. 30km individual start (classic)
rest day
5. 15km mass start (classic))
6. 35km handicap start (Freestyle)

World Cup Points for individual stages are only awarded if you finish the last stage.

I think this would be a good compromise between different interests. Pleasing both "old School" and "new School" fans, as well as attracting the skiers to actually compete and finish the race.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

2019/2020 will look like this:
Lenzerheide Sprint C
Lenzerheide 15k F mass start
Vaduz Sprint F
Toblach 15k F
Toblach 15k C pursuit
Val di Fiemme 15k mass start
Val di Fiemme 9k Alpe Cermis

Ski Tour 2020 will be a bit different:

Östersund 15k F
Östersund 15k C
Are Sprint F
Storlien-Meraker 38k F mass start
Trondheim Sprint C
Trondheim Skiathlon pursuit

 

[Bavarianrider]

Re:

2019/2020 will look like this:
Lenzerheide Sprint C
Lenzerheide 15k F mass start
Vaduz Sprint F
Toblach 15k F
Toblach 15k C pursuit
Val di Fiemme 15k mass start
Val di Fiemme 9k Alpe Cermis

Ski Tour 2020 will be a bit different:

Östersund 15k F
Östersund 15k C
Are Sprint F
Storlien-Meraker 38k F mass start
Trondheim Sprint C
Trondheim Skiathlon pursuit

Well so Tour de Ski is very similar to This year.

I like that Tour 2020 program a lot more! Looks solid! Well designed.
Do you know if this will be a full 30km skiathlon?
There's no big Event next year so this Ski Tour in February will be the Peak of the season more or less. I excpect that at Norwegians, Sweds, Finns, Russians will consider this the main Event of the season. Not TDS. This could start an interesting development in my opinion. It might very well be possible that TDS might die in the Long run and be replaced by some sort of a scnadinavian Tour.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

a couple of parting afterthoughts...

btw, agree with john, it was my beef for a long time that sprinting bonuses are disproportionately high compared to distance bonuses. really, a multi-day tour should even out the cost of daring.

1. that klaebo did not hold back today is a fair conclusion. would he be a tad faster if he did not have 1:20 to fall back onto ? perhaps, but his suffering was for everyone to see which leads to my 2nd point...
2. Ustiougov would have won today if the russians had organized even a half-azzed team work yesterday. why is it so ? my guess is b/c unlike most teams, they dont have a head national coach on site to tell everyone what to do. technically, vialbe is the head coach but she sits in russia and onsite you have competing groups of 3-4 national team coaches: kramer, borodavko, perevozikov etc. such mess, was NOT possible in the old times, but that's the way it was...in both classic races btw.
3. why klaebo suffered so much on the hill ? his grandpa probably knows, but i am allowed to speculate..for one, he lacks experience. it is very important indeed. Yet i'd guess equally important was perhaps that he's built is as pure a sprinter as the sport probably had seen. northug was of the same mold and despite tonnes of experience he NEVER did anything remarkable. the proportion of fast twitch muscles during an extended high intensity effort probably causes acidosis in such types quicker than those endowned with slow twitches. sort of cavendish parallel to cycling ?
4. i am very happy for oestberg. she was plain superior despite the valiant efforts of the young russians. she's also a nice, humble young lady i can greatly respect unlike some other norwegian girls. a finnish coach in a swedish paper opined today, that her distance successes are due to ...reduction in the size of her thighs :idea: may be. which bring me to my last point
5. watch out for nepryaeva ! she showed incredible aerobic fitness and plenty of sprint skills. imagine, if like oestberg, she reduced her thighs just a tad ?

Yes, well the problem for the Russians is that, as you said, they have three distinct, well, four distinct training groups, the three that you mentioned and the fourth is coached by Egor Sorin, an assistant to Cramer for the past few years but now he's the coach of another group. So you have potentially four different philosophies and tactics. They had 10 men to start this tour, effectively only one man was a pure sprinter: Retivykh. Everyone else was either an allrounder or distance specialist.

I read that they worked for Bolshunov yesterday, because he was feeling better than Ustiugov and he needed to try and cut down into Klaebo, but more importantly, create a bigger buffer between himself and climbers like Krüger, Roethe, Spitsov, Sundby, Melnichenko...He did that quite well. The issue today was that he simply cannot climb as well as them. He is too big and strong for such a climb, a lot like Northug and guys like Teichmann or Rickardsson. I think he will get on the podium and may even win it in the future, but right now the final climb isn't his thing. The Norwegian guys that passed him weigh half as much as he does. I still thought he'd hold on for third, but the two that passed him were going fast. Oh well, the focus has been on the world's, so he's more or less on the right path. Bottom line is, Ustiugov lost the tour yesterday. Not sure how Klaebo would have skied had the deficit at the start would have been say, 30-40 seconds less, but Ustiugov lost 1:05 (including bonus seconds) yesterday. Today he beat Klaebo by 1:04. No, not saying that it would have been a sprint to the line today, but Ustiugov had one bad day and that cost him. What cost Bolshunov were the two Oberstdorf races. Minimal bonus seconds in the mass start and lost about 30 seconds (including bonuses) to Klaebo in the handicap pursuit. Those seconds would have been very useful today. Hopefully he learns for the future.

The relays will be between these two countries. Nobody has four strong skiers except Russia and Norway. Italy has basically one distance skier and one sprinter. The Finns have Niskanen and maybe Heikkinen, but he shows up maybe once or twice every two years. The Swedes have had only Halfvarsson and that's about it. The Germans these days are happy to have someone break into the top 20 on a given day. The French have a nice team that on paper, has a strong chance for a podium.

The women's relay could be more competitive, surprisingly. Russia, Norway, Sweden, Finland if Parmakoski is on and Niskanen and Kylloenen are healthy. The US has Diggins and Bjornsen. Caldwell is hit or miss in relays. Brennan and Patterson maaaybe.

 

[python]

Re: Re:

a couple of parting afterthoughts...

btw, agree with john, it was my beef for a long time that sprinting bonuses are disproportionately high compared to distance bonuses. really, a multi-day tour should even out the cost of daring.

1. that klaebo did not hold back today is a fair conclusion. would he be a tad faster if he did not have 1:20 to fall back onto ? perhaps, but his suffering was for everyone to see which leads to my 2nd point...
2. Ustiougov would have won today if the russians had organized even a half-azzed team work yesterday. why is it so ? my guess is b/c unlike most teams, they dont have a head national coach on site to tell everyone what to do. technically, vialbe is the head coach but she sits in russia and onsite you have competing groups of 3-4 national team coaches: kramer, borodavko, perevozikov etc. such mess, was NOT possible in the old times, but that's the way it was...in both classic races btw.
3. why klaebo suffered so much on the hill ? his grandpa probably knows, but i am allowed to speculate..for one, he lacks experience. it is very important indeed. Yet i'd guess equally important was perhaps that he's built is as pure a sprinter as the sport probably had seen. northug was of the same mold and despite tonnes of experience he NEVER did anything remarkable. the proportion of fast twitch muscles during an extended high intensity effort probably causes acidosis in such types quicker than those endowned with slow twitches. sort of cavendish parallel to cycling ?
4. i am very happy for oestberg. she was plain superior despite the valiant efforts of the young russians. she's also a nice, humble young lady i can greatly respect unlike some other norwegian girls. a finnish coach in a swedish paper opined today, that her distance successes are due to ...reduction in the size of her thighs :idea: may be. which bring me to my last point
5. watch out for nepryaeva ! she showed incredible aerobic fitness and plenty of sprint skills. imagine, if like oestberg, she reduced her thighs just a tad ?

Yes, well the problem for the Russians is that, as you said, they have three distinct, well, four distinct training groups, the three that you mentioned and the fourth is coached by Egor Sorin, an assistant to Cramer for the past few years but now he's the coach of another group. So you have potentially four different philosophies and tactics. They had 10 men to start this tour, effectively only one man was a pure sprinter: Retivykh. Everyone else was either an allrounder or distance specialist.

I read that they worked for Bolshunov yesterday, because he was feeling better than Ustiugov and he needed to try and cut down into Klaebo, but more importantly, create a bigger buffer between himself and climbers like Krüger, Roethe, Spitsov, Sundby, Melnichenko...He did that quite well. The issue today was that he simply cannot climb as well as them. He is too big and strong for such a climb, a lot like Northug and guys like Teichmann or Rickardsson. I think he will get on the podium and may even win it in the future, but right now the final climb isn't his thing. The Norwegian guys that passed him weigh half as much as he does. I still thought he'd hold on for third, but the two that passed him were going fast. Oh well, the focus has been on the world's, so he's more or less on the right path. Bottom line is, Ustiugov lost the tour yesterday. Not sure how Klaebo would have skied had the deficit at the start would have been say, 30-40 seconds less, but Ustiugov lost 1:05 (including bonus seconds) yesterday. Today he beat Klaebo by 1:04. No, not saying that it would have been a sprint to the line today, but Ustiugov had one bad day and that cost him. What cost Bolshunov were the two Oberstdorf races. Minimal bonus seconds in the mass start and lost about 30 seconds (including bonuses) to Klaebo in the handicap pursuit. Those seconds would have been very useful today. Hopefully he learns for the future.

The relays will be between these two countries. Nobody has four strong skiers except Russia and Norway. Italy has basically one distance skier and one sprinter. The Finns have Niskanen and maybe Heikkinen, but he shows up maybe once or twice every two years. The Swedes have had only Halfvarsson and that's about it. The Germans these days are happy to have someone break into the top 20 on a given day. The French have a nice team that on paper, has a strong chance for a podium.

The women's relay could be more competitive, surprisingly. Russia, Norway, Sweden, Finland if Parmakoski is on and Niskanen and Kylloenen are healthy. The US has Diggins and Bjornsen. Caldwell is hit or miss in relays. Brennan and Patterson maaaybe.

many valid points ! also, essentially having 2 leaders from 2 different and competing coaching groups creates objective difficulties when forced to choose the team tactic in a given race.

yet, i find the russian system, formerly known for its authoritativeness, rather strange. they should settle on one head coach while at races. imo, it should be kramer. unequivocally qualified to make the decisions, experienced with stupid journos, speaking english, and above all, he seems personally loyal to vialbe and her russian fed. but that is russia, bullsfan. they cant easily hand over the power to a foreigner who, i hear is a german jew to boot. my source is a former master of sports who is connected to many current actors.

 

[Singer01]

Again the women's biathlon far less predictable than the men's, pursuit set up very nicely.

 

[Laplaz]

Re:

Again the women's biathlon far less predictable than the men's, pursuit set up very nicely.

Indeed. Congrats to Lisa Vittozzi for her first victory