I am not 100% certain that Ustiugov will just fly by Klaebo, although he is favored to win. Bolshunov will have a harder time, even though he is right behind Klaebo. Two of the three danger men, Krüger and Holund lost ground, in Holund's case, a lot of ground. He is now 2:34 behind Klaebo and Bolshunov and 2:19 behind Ustiugov. He's really going to have to ski the race of his life to catch the leaders. Krüger is 3:17 behind the leaders. He, too, will have to ski out of his skin. I don't think either of those guys will get on the podium. Roethe (IMO, a bit fortunate to make it as far as he did today) is 2:01 behind the two leaders and 1:46 behind Ustiugov. If we take last year's results into consideration, then He will have a chance and could very well pass both Bolshunov and Klaebo, but will be short of Ustiugov. This year being a mass start we may not see the leaders leak that much time to the best climbers, but they will lose time, there is no doubt about that.
A couple days ago, I saw some clips of the flat trail between the stadium and the foot of the climb and predictably there's very little snow. There's not a lot of room and it'll likely be single file. Anyone that dares pass in that section may cause havoc in the field. With 62 (assuming everyone that raced today starts tomorrow) skiers on course, going fast on tired legs, it could get dangerous. Pål Golberg was interviewed by Norwegian media and said that it could be very dangerous and criticized FIS and the organizers for having the stage be a mass start. Jacobsen was among those that agreed. Golberg said that with asphalt right next to the trail it could cause injuries if someone were to fall and go off course.
It doesn't make sense from a risk/health perspective, it makes no sense from a lack of snow perspective, it makes no sense from a GC perspective and it will be hard for some to figure out the timing/who is where in the standings, etc. I guess having that uncertainty may add to the drama...if Mignerey really wanted that. What's funny (well, kind of funny, but definitely mind boggling) is that Mignerey himself didn't check out the course, some of the other FIS technical delegates did, but he thinks it's the right decision to go ahead with the mass start.
In any case, it's FIS being FIS in terms of making head scratching decisions to erase all traces of traditional cross country skiing.
Will there be teamwork involved tomorrow? I think there will be, certainly up to the start of the climb. The Norwegians and Russians will have men up front to shepherd their leaders safely. Once the climb starts, it may be every man for himself. I could see a scenario where someone that's outside of the top 10, like Jan Thomas Jenssen, sacrifices himself for Klaebo. Or the top climbers that I mentioned above tow Klaebo for the first minute or two of the climb and then go for it. Same thing could be done by the Russians. Melnichenko and Spitsov won't challenge for the podium (ok, Melnichenko could maybe possibly do something, as he's in 11th and had the third fastest time last year). But I am thinking Larkov and Yakimushkin may be the main helpers. Finding a good spot before the narrow trail could be very important, for both the leaders and their 'helpers.' There are going to be two bonus points sprints, one at the end of the stadium lap and the second at the finish line. I read Retyvikh decided that he will stay and race tomorrow, to try and get the maximum points in the first sprint point. That may be a good place to spread the field out a bit.
The women's race is going to be, for once, a fascinating battle up the Alpe. Johaug is the big favorite, obviously, and having the leader's bib and not having to work to catch anyone will take away a lot of pressure. After that it's unclear what will happen. You'd think that Oestberg at number 4 will overtake Jacobsen and Nepryaeva, as she is the better climber of those three. Andersson is a really good climber, but she may be too far back to challenge for the podium. There is also Weng, who likewise climbs very well, usually, and she's 47 seconds behind Johaug, but could end up on the podium. That said, last year she was only 19 seconds faster than Nepryaeva on the climb, but was overall 10 seconds behind the Russian on the fastest time of the day for the whole stage. There may still be hope for Nepryaeva to stay on the podium. What was very disappointing for her was the fall and the broken pole at the start of today's final. She would have fought for the stage win, no doubt, but she lost out and she also lost out on important bonus seconds. Her skis weren't the best yesterday and she was strong there as well, so unfortunately two missed opportunities to gain on the overall lead (likely snatch the bib had she won today) and keep her sprinters jersey. Now she lost out on all of those possibilities, which is a real pity because she's been the most consistent skier of the tour, woman or man. She's been no lower than 6th at the tour. That's great consistency. I hope she hangs on to finish on the podium, she deserves it.
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