I think at worst everyone else catches up to them in terms of wax. I don’t think they’ll have slower skis all of a sudden, perhaps if a front moves in and brings some snow and warmer temperatures. It’s actually warmer than it was for the first couple races. That may actually help the Norwegians going forward, but none of their women have a chance in the 30km, apart from Johaug. Their men will fare better, but they need Klæbo to be in good form in both relays.
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I think at worst everyone else catches up to them in terms of wax. I don’t think they’ll have slower skis all of a sudden, perhaps if a front moves in and brings some snow and warmer temperatures. It’s actually warmer than it was for the first couple races. That may actually help the Norwegians going forward, but none of their women have a chance in the 30km, apart from Johaug. Their men will fare better, but they need Klæbo to be in good form in both relays.
Still, a top 10 result for her today is really good.
She'll be dangerous for the 30km
Really close race today, the Finns are really in an exceptional shape and good to see Stupak back with a good race so I put Russia as favourites for the relay and second favourites for the team sprint only a little behind Sweden. Speaking of which, I really think Norway could be without a medal in any of the team events as both Weng sisters were bad today.
She'd better not. I can't listen to her being discussed for 30km.
Looking at her results she has only ever been on the podium in 1 30km (admittedly it's not a frequent race).
If the Swedes don’t improve, then I can see Brennan and Diggins going 2, 3 behind Johaug. The Finns and Russians are a little bit better in classic, although you never know, the Finns have had excellent skis so far and are in form. Sorina could potentially challenge, Nepryaeva is an outside shot but a long distance skate race is her weakest event. Rygalina is a bit of a joker, she doesn’t have experience, but in long distances she’s dangerous. She finished 8th in the skiathlon and had the third fastest skate time, only 13 seconds behind Diggins. She can certainly finish in the top 10 again, and could be much closer to a medal than most realize. Stadlober could very easily get into the top 3 again. The long hills suit her well.
No other team has serious contenders for that race, so the result sheet will look somewhat similar to the skiathlon with a couple changes.
I forgot to mention the Germans. They have chance in the relay and team sprint. Hennig with another solid classic race and Sauerbrey with back to back top 15 results for her. They will probably put her on the third leg, with Gimmler and Hennig the first two classic legs and likely Carl on the anchor.
Looking at her skating time in the Skiathlon Claudel could also be a dangerous outsider.
Diggins is just really strong when it comes to skating at altitude, she'll be dangerous. The lack odmf gliding because of the sandy snow also means that more economic skiers with smoother technique won't be able to safe much energy compared to her.
I can’t decide whether or not the ski changes will be as important. There’s not a lot of downhills where you can gain massive time, but having a fresh pair of skis on after a while, when you’re getting tired and the snow is slower, it could still make a big impact. It may be a closer race than most of us think.
I just checked, and Niskanen was actually a second quicker in that part (hand stopped, 20s from the first blue bollard, compared to 21s for Johaug). Of course, this doesn't mean that she couldn't have gone quicker off track, but I don't think it was crystal clear.
About the relay, I don't think I'd put Parmakoski in one of the classic legs. 5k is basically the perfect distance for Matintalo, and she's much better in classics than skating, while it doesn't matter too much for Krista.
Maybe Jasmi Joenssu can be put on the third leg. She is a strong sprinter and last year she had a good opening leg for the Finns at the World’s. Niskanen likely in the second. I imagine Stupak will try to push the pace on the opening leg and then Nepryaeva will try to maintain the pace and if those two teams plus the Swedes have a gap on the Norwegians before Johaug’s leg, that’s going to be tough for the Norwegians. The Russians and Finns whether or not they have good individual results, always come through in the team events. I expect fireworks for the two women’s team events. Hopefully Nepryaeva and Niskanen recover quickly from today’s disappointment. They are in great form and they had optimal skis. That shouldn’t change too much, if at all, in 48 hours.
It is not "nothing at all". Fossesholm and the Weng-twins will improve over 2-3 years. But, yes, the clouds are much darker in the horizon for the Norwegian woman's team. It is a result of dropping the ball on developing good recruitment in the era of Bjørgen and Johaug. In a period of great success they have forgotten that the sweeds, Russians and the finns are working hard to develop new talents when there is nothing to be done with the Norwegian dominance at the time.
It is a shame that the Norwegian woman's team hasn´t had a good plan to handle the situation they have ended up in. There are maybe as many as 25 better options than Myrvold in a classical 10k sitting at home in Norway. Svensson, Theodorsen or even one of the Øyre-Slind-sisters could have stepped in. They have both the experience to prepare on their own and have shown decent form. Norway should have a reserve team in altitude training as the situation is.
Sure, it is fine for Myrvold to get the experience and it might do her good in the future. But she was never there in the first place to do a 10k. And it must just feel really unfair to all the Norwegian xc skiers at home who has worked so hard and would give an arm and a leg for a chance to compete in the olympics.
Sure, it is fine for Myrvold to get the experience and it might do her good in the future. But she was never there in the first place to do a 10k. And it must just feel really unfair to all the Norwegian xc skiers at home who has worked so hard and would give an arm and a leg for a chance to compete in the olympics.
Fossesholm may, but the Weng twins are both 25, and between them they have 1 individual podium. If they do develop it isn't going to be into world class at this stage in all likelihood.
Probably not. Although they might develop more stamina it is still a way to go up to some of the best in the same age group. There might be more talented recruits in the tunnel, although it is hard to see any topp world class talent in the junior ranks at the moment. Amongst the recruits Fossesholm seems to be the best we've got. But the podium today consisted of very experienced racers in their 30s. I guess years and years of altitude training has something to do with it and it also could explain why Frida Karlson struggles so much. The altitude, the cold and the profile of the tracks, no doubt, does have a lot to say on who are performing well in these olympics. A competition in the lowlands would be different.
Some are simply in better shape and the Finns are nailing their wax preparation perfectly. Frida also may still be impacted by the disqualification at the TDS. Also more than month without racing is not for everyone.
FIS Live
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Russia going with Semikov instead of Spitsov is a bit disappointing as he is in great shape although Semikov is good in classic distance races. Iversen is not even racing this the Norwegians were so bad picking the team for these games, although losing Krüger was unfortunate.
Thanks, looks like a big showdown between Bolshunov and Niskanen to me, everyone else is probably just fighting for Bronze.FIS Live
Russia going with Semikov instead of Spitsov is a bit disappointing as he is in great shape although Semikov is good in classic distance races. Iversen is not even racing this the Norwegians were so bad picking the team for these games, although losing Krüger was unfortunate.
Yeah, Norway's selection has been really poor, not to mention that they also could have brought a distance skier instead of Taugboel...
if Valnes tomorrow doesn't improve on his result in the sprint, I guess they could still line up Iversen for the relay. It's not like Roethe looked any good either, and Krueger only arrives the day before.
Hard to see Valnes doing a good race on these courses. He was burned off by Maltsev’s pace in the sprint. I can somewhat see why they are having him race tomorrow, to see who will race the classic legs of the relay. Iversen not in the race means that he will likely not get a spot in the relay or team sprint. The likely candidate is Golberg. He looked reasonably good in the skiathlon and sprint. The issue is he maybe doing too many races. Don’t know if Krüger will be put in the relay, he arrives in China the day before. So maybe Holund will ski the third leg? He may need to ski the second classic well if Valnes does poorly, which means that Røthe becomes the next logical leg, but he pulled out of the skiathlon. Is Amundsen there? I think he may be. He can certainly ski one of the skate legs. They may actually need to put Klæbo in one of the classic legs if tomorrow becomes a complete disaster for the Norwegians.
According to the intervals on the live timing, this is the loop for tomorrow. It looks super super hard. I doubt Klaebo has any chance on those 2 loops. Niskanen vs Bolshunov for the gold. I wonder who can take the bronze. Not many great classics skiers in the field.
I think if Klæbo gets a medal but the others are well behind, then that becomes a major issue. I don’t think he will be too upset if he doesn’t medal, he got his gold in the sprint, but what happens in the team sprint and relay? Bolshunov skipped the sprint and will be fresh for the remaining races. Especially as between the relay and team sprint there are 2 or 3 full days off. Klæbo will not have it his own way in that team sprint. Bolshunov will just keep piling on the pressure and Klæbo will likely need to try and make up lost ground. The issue for the Russians is who will race with Bolshunov? Terentjev seems like the logical choice after the sprint, and he’s a better classic skier, but I am still wondering how he will deal with only 3 minutes of rest in between. Ustiugov is the other option but I think he is mentally cooked. He’s been mentioning the lack of races the last two months and that he’s lost motivation. I think he’s in good shape but not sure if he’s ready mentally. Had he made the final he would have been given a spot in the team sprint and maybe even the relay, I am pretty sure of that.
Taugbøl could be a good pick but like Valnes, he was burned off by Maltsev’s pace in the semis.
According to the intervals on the live timing, this is the loop for tomorrow. It looks super super hard. I doubt Klaebo has any chance on those 2 loops. Niskanen vs Bolshunov for the gold. I wonder who can take the bronze. Not many great classics skiers in the field.
Golberg and Holund will be up there. I think Semikov could surprise. Chervotkin would have been a name keep a close eye on, as he’s had two podiums in 15km classic races this season, and a couple more last season. But he had a terrible skiathlon. He was dropped relatively early. I don’t see him figuring in. Yakimushkin is always solid, but just not good enough to get on the podium regularly.
The others? I believe De Fabiani is a strong outsider for the podium. He looked strong in the skiathlon, sure he’s a better mass start racer but he could definitely challenge tomorrow. Poromaa could challenge, and even old man Cologna could fly the coup in his last season. He’s been preparing for this race. The French are looking rather pedestrian so far. I doubt they do anything tomorrow. If one of them gets a top 10 that’ll be good for them. The Germans will probably be somewhere around 15th place.
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