Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[BigCoward]

So we’ve already established who the best and 2nd best are?

Is it even a discussion? Who would you say if it's not Bjoergen and Johaug?

 

[Mayomaniac]

Iivo and Hyva out of the Tour, just like Calle.
Will be up to the French sprinters, Lapalus, Moch, Schumacher and Vermeulen to do anything against the Norge phalanx. Poromaa still needs races to get in shape and I have no idea what to expect from the Italians.

 

[BullsFan22]

Is it even a discussion? Who would you say if it's not Bjoergen and Johaug?

Ski racing didn’t start in 2003.

 

[BigCoward]

Qa

Ski racing didn’t start in 2003.

Really? Insightful.
So who has a better record than those 2? Bjoergen has about 70 wins more than anyone else, Johaug has 35 more wins than anyone else, what are you even talkng about?
When you combine race wins, overall WC, distance/sprint WC, tour de ski, olympics and World golds how are you even disputing this?
The only rationale you could have is 'the board hates norwegians'.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'll look on the bright side: finally the season begins for Patricija Eiduka. Plus, elsewhere, the climber bib should hopefully add some other elements to the other stages, even though it's likely it just becomes a "win the Alpe, win the trophy" kind of job. Laukli sounds like she's targeting it from the FIS article, which should be fun, especially if it means she'll start bringing the chaos on other stages too.

My fear is that unless the climbs are long or steep enough (think Mördarbacken at Falun or Burgstall at Oberstdorf) they won't be able to make enough of a difference to make them a different kind of trophy from the bonus trophy putting some of its sprints on hills like in Lillehammer, which would marginalise the very kind of athletes like a Claudel or a Laukli that the competition is meant to support, but it's nice to see them trying something positive to shake up the Tour and make it more like what it was originally meant to be, which it's been progressively drifting away from year by year even if I'm skeptical of how well it'll work until I've seen it in action.

 

[KZD]

Where did Federica Cassol came from? Big surprise to start the Tour.

I have to say that this is a more interesting route than usual. A 20km individual start should cause some big gaps and because its in skating Krüger should really take advantage of it and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the overall even though Amundsen and Klæbo can't be overlooked.

In the women's side, I think its going to be Diggins vs Johaug also because of the skating individual, the American will probably need to take 1:30 minutes to be safe before the final climb.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Where did Federica Cassol came from? Big surprise to start the Tour.

I have to say that this is a more interesting route than usual. A 20km individual start should cause some big gaps and because its in skating Krüger should really take advantage of it and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the overall even though Amundsen and Klæbo can't be overlooked.

In the women's side, I think its going to be Diggins vs Johaug also because of the skating individual, the American will probably need to take 1:30 minutes to be safe before the final climb.

It's ok, FIS give about 2 hours' worth of bonuses for the sprints as usual in the interest of "balance" so that sprinters can compete for the GC.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Where did Federica Cassol came from? Big surprise to start the Tour.

I have to say that this is a more interesting route than usual. A 20km individual start should cause some big gaps and because its in skating Krüger should really take advantage of it and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the overall even though Amundsen and Klæbo can't be overlooked.

In the women's side, I think its going to be Diggins vs Johaug also because of the skating individual, the American will probably need to take 1:30 minutes to be safe before the final climb.

Cassol was already 10th in the sprint qualifier (15th in the end) in Davos and won the Italian sprints + Fesa Cup sprints before.
Looking at the number of Italians who made it in the men's final they probably had great skis (the junior team did some testing for them earlier this week)

 

[BullsFan22]

I'll look on the bright side: finally the season begins for Patricija Eiduka. Plus, elsewhere, the climber bib should hopefully add some other elements to the other stages, even though it's likely it just becomes a "win the Alpe, win the trophy" kind of job. Laukli sounds like she's targeting it from the FIS article, which should be fun, especially if it means she'll start bringing the chaos on other stages too.

My fear is that unless the climbs are long or steep enough (think Mördarbacken at Falun or Burgstall at Oberstdorf) they won't be able to make enough of a difference to make them a different kind of trophy from the bonus trophy putting some of its sprints on hills like in Lillehammer, which would marginalise the very kind of athletes like a Claudel or a Laukli that the competition is meant to support, but it's nice to see them trying something positive to shake up the Tour and make it more like what it was originally meant to be, which it's been progressively drifting away from year by year even if I'm skeptical of how well it'll work until I've seen it in action.

What ‘chaos’ is Laukli going to bring?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

What ‘chaos’ is Laukli going to bring?

Somebody too dangerous on the Alpe for most anybody not named Therese Johaug to allow to gain enough time or to tempt a group away that could make a difference.

My concern with the climber bib is that the climbs outside of the Alpe are not likely to be decisive enough to allow for the kind of gaps that would allow the actual specialist climbers that we're talking about here - Laukli, Claudel and their likes - to be favoured, but if they are long enough and those athletes are targeting the classification such that they have to be getting to the front and attacking before the climbs in order to win the points for said bib, it could really impact attrition and make the race harder for a lot of those for whom the climbs are about hanging on. Especially as she'll have to do it in Classic too if she's really targeting the classification, which is really not her forte.

Do I think it'll play out like that? Probably not. But at least it's something that is introduced with the intention of making racing harder, instead of simplifying and turning the calendar into 50% sprints and 90% of the distance races suitable for a durable sprinter in the interest of a close finish, as most of FIS' moves over the last 20 years have been.

 

[BullsFan22]

Somebody too dangerous on the Alpe for most anybody not named Therese Johaug to allow to gain enough time or to tempt a group away that could make a difference.

My concern with the climber bib is that the climbs outside of the Alpe are not likely to be decisive enough to allow for the kind of gaps that would allow the actual specialist climbers that we're talking about here - Laukli, Claudel and their likes - to be favoured, but if they are long enough and those athletes are targeting the classification such that they have to be getting to the front and attacking before the climbs in order to win the points for said bib, it could really impact attrition and make the race harder for a lot of those for whom the climbs are about hanging on. Especially as she'll have to do it in Classic too if she's really targeting the classification, which is really not her forte.

Do I think it'll play out like that? Probably not. But at least it's something that is introduced with the intention of making racing harder, instead of simplifying and turning the calendar into 50% sprints and 90% of the distance races suitable for a durable sprinter in the interest of a close finish, as most of FIS' moves over the last 20 years have been.

Laukli will lose too much time before that. She can't sprint and isn't a great classic skier.

 

[BullsFan22]

Cassol was already 10th in the sprint qualifier (15th in the end) in Davos and won the Italian sprints + Fesa Cup sprints before.
Looking at the number of Italians who made it in the men's final they probably had great skis (the junior team did some testing for them earlier this week)

Looks like lack of experience did her in.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Looks like lack of experience did her in.

Yeah, it's also getting way colder and faster right now, so the waxing advantage from the prologue with sunshine and warmer temperatures could be gone.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Diggins still has Toblach locked up.
First podium for Joensuu, of course I wanted her to win.
A day to forget for Sweden.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Laukli will lose too much time before that. She can't sprint and isn't a great classic skier.

Sure, but she might make a useful ally up the road. The likes of Diggins can let her go because she'll gain time with the huge bonuses given for sprints, but the likes of Weng probably can't after last year.

Johaug will back herself to build gaps elsewhere then win on the Alpe.

The fact that you need to be able to sprint to have an impact on the GC of the Tour is completely stupid, pathetic and a complete insult to the concept the race was supposed to embody when it was created (do we see ASO give 20 minutes' bonus down to 1 for the top 20 on sprint stages to try to balance out the mountains?), but it's too ingrained now to go any other way.

 

[BullsFan22]

Weng went from someone that could challenge and actually win sprints to not even making it into the heats.

I expect Cringe to win the tour. Niskanen actually had a good sprint race today, which could mean she’s in good form and will certainly challenge in the distance events. She’s also a good enough climber. She finished top 3 and was within 40 seconds of the win last season. She could go a step higher this year.

I was hoping against hope that Ebba would make the heats but that was wishful thinking. She wasn’t even close.

Swedish women had pretty bad day today. Only one in the semifinal.

 

[BullsFan22]

Sure, but she might make a useful ally up the road. The likes of Diggins can let her go because she'll gain time with the huge bonuses given for sprints, but the likes of Weng probably can't after last year.

Johaug will back herself to build gaps elsewhere then win on the Alpe.

The fact that you need to be able to sprint to have an impact on the GC of the Tour is completely stupid, pathetic and a complete insult to the concept the race was supposed to embody when it was created (do we see ASO give 20 minutes' bonus down to 1 for the top 20 on sprint stages to try to balance out the mountains?), but it's too ingrained now to go any other way.

So many short mass starts is also an insult. Though this tour doesn’t have that.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

The fact that you need to be able to sprint to have an impact on the GC of the Tour is completely stupid, pathetic and a complete insult to the concept the race was supposed to embody when it was created (do we see ASO give 20 minutes' bonus down to 1 for the top 20 on sprint stages to try to balance out the mountains?), but it's too ingrained now to go any other way.

I think it’s wrong to say it’s a fact, or are you saying that Johaug, Weng and Andersson will not even have an impact on the overall? Last year Moch and Lapalus were on the overall podium and they can’t sprint at all. Krueger could definitively podium this year and he can’t sprint either.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think it’s wrong to say it’s a fact, or are you saying that Johaug, Weng and Andersson will not even have an impact on the overall? Last year Moch and Lapalus were on the overall podium and they can’t sprint at all. Krueger could definitively podium this year and he can’t sprint either.

It was maybe a bit of an exaggeration to say it's a "fact", but I still think it's very much a fact that the bonuses available for the sprint lend it a disproportionate impact. Last year was also very much hurt by the snow conditions completely nullifying the Val di Fiemme classic stage before the Alpe on the men's side, turning it into an absolutely awful spectacle with just a sprint at the end, and two pursuits plus a lack of Klæbo meant it became almost a one-stage spectacle on the Alpe for the minor placing. Diggins, on the other hand, beat both Weng and Niskanen by less than the time gift she was given for coming 3rd in the 2nd sprint, and gained almost all of her advantage by coming 9th in the first one.

I don't actually mind some bonuses for coming 3rd, you know, top 3 on the day and all that, like in cycling. But getting 30 seconds' bonus for being knocked out in the semi-final is ridiculous imo. And with so many mass starts this year I just don't feel especially confident that the balance isn't going to continue to make it a bonus second fiesta this season too.

 

[YavorD]

It was maybe a bit of an exaggeration to say it's a "fact", but I still think it's very much a fact that the bonuses available for the sprint lend it a disproportionate impact. Last year was also very much hurt by the snow conditions completely nullifying the Val di Fiemme classic stage before the Alpe on the men's side, turning it into an absolutely awful spectacle with just a sprint at the end, and two pursuits plus a lack of Klæbo meant it became almost a one-stage spectacle on the Alpe for the minor placing. Diggins, on the other hand, beat both Weng and Niskanen by less than the time gift she was given for coming 3rd in the 2nd sprint, and gained almost all of her advantage by coming 9th in the first one.

I don't actually mind some bonuses for coming 3rd, you know, top 3 on the day and all that, like in cycling. But getting 30 seconds' bonus for being knocked out in the semi-final is ridiculous imo. And with so many mass starts this year I just don't feel especially confident that the balance isn't going to continue to make it a bonus second fiesta this season too.

I would say that 30-1 bonuses for the top 30 is okay-ish.
That as a way to force the distance skiers to be more pro-active in the mass starts to prevent them from being boring.
If you put only a fraction of seconds bonuses in the sprint (say 15 for the winner) you can as well nullify the mass starts cuz they'd be able to gain that seconds in the individual races or even at the final climb.

Speaking of bonuses I can't recall are there any kind of bonuses during the mass starts?
If so, sprinters are even more favoured.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Speaking of bonuses I can't recall are there any kind of bonuses during the mass starts?
If so, sprinters are even more favoured.

There have always (in every tour, not necessarily in every mass start race) been that.

It was maybe a bit of an exaggeration to say it's a "fact", but I still think it's very much a fact that the bonuses available for the sprint lend it a disproportionate impact.

I don't actually mind some bonuses for coming 3rd, you know, top 3 on the day and all that, like in cycling. But getting 30 seconds' bonus for being knocked out in the semi-final is ridiculous imo. And with so many mass starts this year I just don't feel especially confident that the balance isn't going to continue to make it a bonus second fiesta this season too.

The problem with sprint in Tour de Ski is that it’s very hard/impossoble to find the tights balance because there is no way to really measure the effect of the extra heats. For example Diggins gained a lot of time today, but she will be at a significant disadvantage compared to Johaug, Weng, Andersson tomorrow because she’s had 3 extra heats (with warm up procedures etc) and that will make a difference when they are racing 7 races in 9 days.

The differences from the sprints from 1st to 10th or from 10th to 35th tends to be smaller than the differences between the same positions in for example 10 km interval start (especially on the women’s side), so I don’t think it’s correct to say that the sprints are way too heavily weighted, especially this year where there are 20 km interval start and a 20 km mass start in Val di Fiemme instead of 10 or 15 km as it’s been previously.

The tour this year is in my eyes better suited to a pure distance skier like Johaug than an allrounder like Diggins. On the men’s side Klæbo is unique and it would be very hard to make a Tour route where he wouldn’t be the favorite unless we suddenly jumped 30 years back in time and added 30/50 km interval starts…

 

[BullsFan22]

There have always (in every tour, not necessarily in every mass start race) been that.

The problem with sprint in Tour de Ski is that it’s very hard/impossoble to find the tights balance because there is no way to really measure the effect of the extra heats. For example Diggins gained a lot of time today, but she will be at a significant disadvantage compared to Johaug, Weng, Andersson tomorrow because she’s had 3 extra heats (with warm up procedures etc) and that will make a difference when they are racing 7 races in 9 days.

The differences from the sprints from 1st to 10th or from 10th to 35th tends to be smaller than the differences between the same positions in for example 10 km interval start (especially on the women’s side), so I don’t think it’s correct to say that the sprints are way too heavily weighted, especially this year where there are 20 km interval start and a 20 km mass start in Val di Fiemme instead of 10 or 15 km as it’s been previously.

The tour this year is in my eyes better suited to a pure distance skier like Johaug than an allrounder like Diggins. On the men’s side Klæbo is unique and it would be very hard to make a Tour route where he wouldn’t be the favorite unless we suddenly jumped 30 years back in time and added 30/50 km interval starts…

We would need the Russians back and we would need to cut down on mass starts and increase interval start races.

Sprints and mass starts won’t cut it.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I don‘t think there are bonus seconds in distance races anymore, I read that there‘s only points.
Link (in German): https://www.xc-ski.de/events/langla...-19-tour-de-ski-erstmals-komplett-in-italien/

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I would say that 30-1 bonuses for the top 30 is okay-ish.
That as a way to force the distance skiers to be more pro-active in the mass starts to prevent them from being boring.
If you put only a fraction of seconds bonuses in the sprint (say 15 for the winner) you can as well nullify the mass starts cuz they'd be able to gain that seconds in the individual races or even at the final climb.

Speaking of bonuses I can't recall are there any kind of bonuses during the mass starts?
If so, sprinters are even more favoured.

The Tour GC shouldn't be a matter of balance between sprinters and distance racers. It's literally on the calendar for the purpose of being the equivalent to a cycling GT, that was what it was created to be. It should be a matter of balance between the different types of distance racers, with the sprints as a sideshow where the GC guys and girls have to decide whether it's worth expending the effort for the time bonuses, rather than be handed a big time bonus for just making the quarter finals.

The intermediate sprints used to give 15 seconds to the winner, and the first 8 or 10 across got them, so it would be possible in a mass start race to gain 30 seconds on the GC for them. As I've said before, these are a problem not just for the stage races but across the whole calendar; I appreciate what they were trying to achieve with them, but they've had the exact opposite effect to that intended, with races with the bonus sprints frequently seeing little action or seeing moves nullified solely for the purposes of contesting the bonus sprint, reducing the action rather than enhancing it.

 

[YavorD]

The Tour GC shouldn't be a matter of balance between sprinters and distance racers. It's literally on the calendar for the purpose of being the equivalent to a cycling GT, that was what it was created to be. It should be a matter of balance between the different types of distance racers, with the sprints as a sideshow where the GC guys and girls have to decide whether it's worth expending the effort for the time bonuses, rather than be handed a big time bonus for just making the quarter finals.

But proper distance skiers (especially the ones like Niskanen) are one trick ponies (in a way). And if you compare it to cycling GT's, they are usually being dominated by all-rounders (such as....say Diggins) and if you're going to win GT GC as a one trick pony you have to be really special (like Pantani in cycling and Johaug in CX).



Think of the sprints like TTs. Not the most exciting way to create gap's but it does it's purpose.
f you're not a decent sprinter and you lose too much time in the sprints, you have to make it up in the mass starts (as individuals for good or for bad are rarety nowadays), thus making the mass starts more exciting. Let's use this year's TdS as a proper example, if the sprints were a sideshow and Diggins was able to get 30 seconds tops (providing he wins both sprints) you essentially gift the GcC to the one-trick pony (Johaug) as she'd be able to close that gap on Alpe Cernis alone thus making the mass starts protocol.
Absolutely the same goes to the men. If anyone wants to beat Klaebo he has to be aggressive.


I do agree that 1 minute is perhaps too OP towards the sprints but something in between 30-45 seconds is optimal to give distance skiers a reason to attack without making the GC so much inclined to the sprints.