Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[Libertine Seguros]

I disagree with some of them, like Stupak that BullsFan mentioned and Nilsson which also had a lot of good results from distance races.

I think neither Valnes or Pellegrino will end up in the top 6 and maybe even not top 8 (Klæbo, Vermeulen, Lapalus, Moseby, Fjorden Ree, Jenssen, Moch and Desloges) and that’s with Amundsen getting sick and Krüger crashing out of the GC today.

Both Valnes and Pellegrino are decent enough distance skiers, there isn’t anything wrong in them being in and around the top 10 in the GC, they are not close to win or actually podiuming. Pretending Pellegrino is a pure sprinter is living in the past. Since Cramer came in he’s changed his training and his big goal is a medal at the 50km in the Olympics next year.

The course today was hard. A lot of meters climbing. The climbers (Vermeulen, Ree, Lapalus, Moch etc) failed to make it hard enough, meaning that they are either stupid or not strong enough. Pellegrino being second today is a legit distance result.

Sure, Pellegrino is not a pure sprinter anymore, but he fills the same niche on the men's side as Svahn does on the women's, or that Nilsson did for much of her career, where he is largely somebody who relies on his sprint and hangs on while the pack thins out for his distance results, responding to moves but seldom ever making them. It's not their fault that trends in the calendar and the way the race is planned suit them, of course, but it does favour that skillset heavily.

And we're one day from the finish of the race with Valnes in 2nd on GC; Idunno, for me it feels like, if you're in 2nd place on the penultimate day, then either you are GC relevant, or the rest of the race is rendered utterly meaningless by the fact that you can be lying in 2nd place with a day to go and still be considered irrelevant. I think of this like a cycling stage race, since it's what it was intended to replicate. What we have here is essentially the thing I've been very critical of a lot of races on the women's World Tour for being: a few flat to rolling stages, and then a single big mountain stage that essentially sets the GC and renders the rest of the race all jockeying for position. Except in the TDS' case, they've tried to counter that by adding disproportionate time bonuses, meaning the mountaintop finish still sets the result, but the rest of it is manufactured drama.

This is how I perceive this year's Tour de Ski as it would appear in cycling:
1: mass start, 1 loop of a World Championships type circuit, circa 15km. Time bonuses for the whole top 30, up to three minutes for the winner.
2: flat stage, bunch sprint expected
3: 40km flat ITT
4: flat stage, but staggered start based on ITT. Wave start for those more than 5 minutes down. Good chance the péloton catches.
5: mass start, 1 loop of a World Championships type circuit, circa 15km. Time bonuses for the whole top 30, up to three minutes for the winner.
6: circuit race somewhere hilly enough that you COULD do something but not so hilly that action is guaranteed. Something like Plouay or my much-hated 2012 Valkenburg circuit (but not with the finish at the Cauberg).
7: mountaintop finish on that Turkish climb that broke APM's record for hardest ascent in racing.

Sure, there's more time likely to be won and lost on the last day than the rest of the race put together, but it doesn't change that the rest of the race has deep flaws that seem to neutralise the only gaps that the race would create naturally, and place by far the highest value on the short stages thanks to the bonuses available.

The Toblach mass start course didn't help, pursuit stages that quickly bunch back up exacerbate that by neutralising a lot of the only on-the-snow gaps that we have had created which has only increased the impact of time bonuses in setting the GC, and today's timid racing didn't help either, of course.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

I think you are completely wrong to compared so directly to cycling. Cross country skiing is a very different sport and the fact that the races are much shorter and all efforts are much shorter which makes it just natural that the successful athletes have a bit different skill set in skiing compared to cycling. Vingegaard would not be anywhere close to the best rider if cycling also only had two or three climbs per race of 3-4 minutes and the rest of the hills mostly being 20-40sec intense efforts.

And it’s nothing new that the courses are easy. Parts of legendary 2x 25 km loop in Holmenkollen are being used in Holmenkollmarsjen, a local race lately been won by Ski Classics guys double poling. The old 50km in Lahti was know to be a brutal race, that course would’ve for sure been double poled today.

I know you like Laukli and her skill set, but i think skiers like her would never be successful in any period of skiing history. A girl like Johaug would, because she’s also good at the flat.

Valnes is 11 seconds ahead of Vermeulen and Moseby. Those three athletes are three completely different types. Valnes is a great sprinter that is decent in distance races. Vermeulen is a good (but not great) distance skier that is bad in sprints. Moseby is a solid allrounder, better in distance but not useless in sprint. The fact that those 3 are close together before the finals stage that heavily favors the latter two shows in my eyes that the Tour de Ski this year is pretty balanced and that it is more skewered towards the guys that are strong distance skiers.

It’s strengthened by sprinters that sometimes can do good distance races like Anger and Ogden being unable to keep performing at a stable level in the distance races and dropping out of the GC.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Well, tech also plays into things becoming easier or harder. Some of the climbs that were monsters in cycling in the past are fairly straightforward tempo grinders today, and of course there's also the balance of the different techniques and the weather to factor in in skiing.

I am seeing a distinct increase in the prominence of the durable-sprinter archetype in the stage races and across the calendar, and a reduction in the disparity between the pure sprinter types and the pure distance types. I've been bewailing for a decade the fact that the calendar makes it far more attractive to a prospect to try to be Kikkan Randall than to try to be Kristin Størmer Steira. The progressive sprintification and mass-startification of the calendar continues to exacerbate and exaggerate this tendency.

And yes, I agree that somebody that's relatively one dimensional and needs a super hard race, like a Sophia Laukli, isn't somebody that would naturally succeed here, because you need to either be insanely outlying talent-wise or increase your all-round capabilities to be able to succeed - but it's a spectrum of talents from sprint to distance. Sophia is at one extreme, but it seems like she has to go a lot further towards the centre before she'll be able to compete for the podium than somebody who is at the other extreme, and I think it ought to be the other way round, at least at the Tour de Ski, seeing as the rest of the calendar is so heavily biased the other way.

After all, the calendar already gives over 1/3 of all World Cup races - sometimes more - to races that an athlete like Kristine Stavås Skistad can podium. How many races are there on the calendar that an athlete at the other end of the spectrum, like indeed Sophia Laukli, can podium?

 

[BigCoward]

It's a shame Klaebo exists, because the mens race would be set up great without him, 9 within a minute.
Even better if it was the traditional final stage pursuit.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I am really Looking forward to the olympics on these whack as loops......Not.

At least the teamperatures will be higher and the conditions slower and deeper.

Still the same stupid 180 degree corner before the meh Zorzi hill and the skating track was on the narrower side, turning Klaebo's (totally valid) tactic of slowing the pace down into borderline moveblocking at some point.

If Valnes is 7th in a Skiathlon then the course isn't that hard. He's a respectable classic distance skier, but not a factor in a hard skating race.

Don't underestimate Pellegrino tomorrow, he has skied himself into great shape and he was already 8th on the climb 2 years ago. He's a light sprinter and not pack fodder on Alpe Cermis.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Missed the race, what happened to Krueger today?

Ree, Lapalus and Vermeulen look set to battle for the 2 places on the podium.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Barp broke/damaged the binding on his right ski during the skating race and had problem on the final lap because of that. If you consider that it was a good performance.

 

[BullsFan22]

Asthmaboy's competition (that's actually there) is falling by the wayside, literally.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Missed the race, what happened to Krueger today?

Ree, Lapalus and Vermeulen look set to battle for the 2 places on the podium.

Krüger crashed early on.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Asthmaboy's competition (that's actually there) is falling by the wayside, literally.

He's the king of a pretty small Island...

 

[BullsFan22]

LOL. Julia Kern is all of a sudden in the top 10-12. She is such a mystery to me, one race she's nowhere near the top 30 the next she's competing with distance skiers.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

I hope Johaug gets beaten every single race, but atleast she’s showing that it’s possivle to break the race up on this course if one actually goes for it.

Weng seems to be paying for yesterday’s effort. Racing a full sprint is a big load on the body, especially for a skier like her that hasn’t done that the last couple of seasons.

 

[BullsFan22]

The level in this men's Tour de Ski has been absolutely dreadful, the only guy that could give Klaebo a fight in the overall got sick and the one that could give him a fight today crashed out of contention. Pellegrino did great by finishing second but with the Russians around, he wouldn't even have been in the top10.

Golberg not in form, Krüger crashed and is out of the GC, any enter out, Amundsen out, no Niskanen, no Russians. Now we have….Mika Vermeulen…lmfao

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

If Valnes is 7th in a Skiathlon then the course isn't that hard. He's a respectable classic distance skier, but not a factor in a hard skating race.

Partly because he never is selected to do these sort of races (and therefore probably doesn’t do much specific training for these kind of efforts), but he’s got potential to be decent. He was 11th in Alpe Cermis last year for example.

When we see the gaps in the women’s class I would put more blame on the athletes than on the course. Of course, when Krueger, Amundsen, Nyenget isnt there on the skate part and Klæbo can slow the field down in many climbs it will be easier for guys like Valnes to keep up. Guys like Vermeulen, Ree, Lapalus and Moch didn’t go full gas from the bottom to the top on neither of the three laps. Then I think they only have themself (and potentially their skis) to blame.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Partly because he never is selected to do these sort of races (and therefore probably doesn’t do much specific training for these kind of efforts), but he’s got potential to be decent. He was 11th in Alpe Cermis last year for example.

When we see the gaps in the women’s class I would put more blame on the athletes than on the course. Of course, when Krueger, Amundsen, Nyenget isnt there on the skate part and Klæbo can slow the field down in many climbs it will be easier for guys like Valnes to keep up. Guys like Vermeulen, Ree, Lapalus and Moch didn’t go full gas from the bottom to the top on neither of the three laps. Then I think they only have themself (and potentially their skis) to blame.

Tbf, this is the skating lap if the Olympic skiathlon, so by using it for both styles it became hard to pass Klaebo (who played it smart) once he slowed the pace down into the climb. Vermeulen had good skis, but Pellegrino being 2nd in a Skiathlon is another indicator that it wasn't the hardest, since he's clearly a better classic distance skier.

And of course Andersson gets dropped right after pulling with Johaug, when will she learn?

Those short, steep and V1 heavy climbs are bad news for Slind, who is a better V2 skater.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

After all, the calendar already gives over 1/3 of all World Cup races - sometimes more - to races that an athlete like Kristine Stavås Skistad can podium. How many races are there on the calendar that an athlete at the other end of the spectrum, like indeed Sophia Laukli, can podium?

I don’t think it’s even fair to compare Laukli to Skistad, because Skistad can win both Classic and Skate and Laukli can only get top 10s in skating. It would probably be more fair to compare her with a pure sprinter that only can do either classic or skate, for example like idk Nilo Moilanen or someone.

Lauklis main problem isn’t that she’s the wrong type of skier, her main problem is that she’s not a good enough skier for her type. Johaug, Andersson and Stadlober are more or less the same type of skier as her, but they are competitive because they are much better.

A lightweight distance skier should be competitive in both distance races in Lillehammer, 20km in Davos, and really also in both distance races in Ruka tbf.

Then of course today and tomorrow. And the 20 and 50 km in World Champs. Probably also the distance races in Les Rousses and the 20k in Falun. And definitively in both distance races in Oslo. The 20k in Engadin i don’t know the course, I fear that one will be too flat. But still there are plenty of races also for the light weight distance skiers without any chance in the sprint races. If they are good enough.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

, but Pellegrino being 2nd in a Skiathlon is another indicator that it wasn't the hardest, since he's clearly a better classic distance skier.

and here I stand by my opinion that it = mostly the race (the athletes) and not the course.

Without the classic tracks in the way it should be better at the Olympics. Do you know how the classic loop looks like?

 

[Mayomaniac]

and here I stand by my opinion that it = mostly the race (the athletes) and not the course.

Without the classic tracks in the way it should be better at the Olympics. Do you know how the classic loop looks like?

No, sadly I don't know the loop. It should be in another direction, ouwards of the valley first and then back to the stadium during the 2nd half.

 

[BigCoward]

How many golds is TJ going to win at WC? 4?

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

How many golds is TJ going to win at WC? 4?

I don’t think it’s given at all that she wins the 10 km classic.
It’s also not given that Norway wins the relay. Svahn-Karlsson-Andersson-Sundling is on paper extremely strong.
The skiathlon course in Trondheim is not as hard as this one or the one in Lillehammer, so it’s not given that she is avle to create a gap there.

The 50k she should win, but it can possibly be the only race she wins.

No, sadly I don't know the loop. It should be in another direction, ouwards of the valley first and then back to the stadium during the 2nd half.

I hope they go all the way up to the highest point where the laps went in 2013. Coming down where Cologna fell in the 50km.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I don’t think it’s even fair to compare Laukli to Skistad, because Skistad can win both Classic and Skate and Laukli can only get top 10s in skating. It would probably be more fair to compare her with a pure sprinter that only can do either classic or skate, for example like idk Nilo Moilanen or someone.

Lauklis main problem isn’t that she’s the wrong type of skier, her main problem is that she’s not a good enough skier for her type. Johaug, Andersson and Stadlober are more or less the same type of skier as her, but they are competitive because they are much better.

A lightweight distance skier should be competitive in both distance races in Lillehammer, 20km in Davos, and really also in both distance races in Ruka tbf.

Then of course today and tomorrow. And the 20 and 50 km in World Champs. Probably also the distance races in Les Rousses and the 20k in Falun. And definitively in both distance races in Oslo. The 20k in Engadin i don’t know the course, I fear that one will be too flat. But still there are plenty of races also for the light weight distance skiers without any chance in the sprint races. If they are good enough.

I don't think all of those races are suited to a pure distance skier because we have so many of these nothing races like the 15k in Toblach that are basically sprints after distance rather than either sprint or distance races. If 1/3 the calendar is for pure sprinters, then 1/3 of the calendar should be for pure distance skiers too. I think we can write Johaug out as an outlier from the distance archetype in the same way as writing Klæbo out as an outlier from those that fulfil the durable sprinter archetype.

Even if you double the events Laukli could be up at the front in to allow for classic, it's still a long way below the amounts Skistad can, because FIS love the sprints because they're a TV format, regular gaps for ad breaks and some kind of guarantee of a burst of action every few minutes. And given the nature of sprints, integrating them into a stage race is always going to be fraught with difficulties because doing well in a sprint necessitates doing more rounds, but when a wrecking ball like a modern-day Strandvall could take out half the field in one heat and cost you almost a minute on the GC, or where you can lose time to a guy you went faster than because they were in a slower heat than you, it's never going to create a solution that pleases everybody. I don't really value the sprints very highly and think that the heavy impact of luck as a factor far more than in any other discipline means that in stage races we should minimise their impact.

As I say, to use my olden times comparisons, I'd look at, if they were around now, how many races could Randall win vs. how many Steira could. We saw people like von Siebenthal retire young because it's just not worth it on the calendar with their skillset, especially during an era when Johaug just ran away from the field in anything that wasn't a sprint at the end of 10k that would allow somebody like Nilsson to hang on. And that's before we get to the tragedy that the relays have become and that the Team Sprint is now more common. While some skiers you might consider to be more distance-oriented have strong roles to play in the Team Sprint, that's still more for the all-rounder types than a pure distance skier, not that of course the relay legs are especially long either now.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I don’t think it’s given at all that she wins the 10 km classic.
It’s also not given that Norway wins the relay. Svahn-Karlsson-Andersson-Sundling is on paper extremely strong.
The skiathlon course in Trondheim is not as hard as this one or the one in Lillehammer, so it’s not given that she is avle to create a gap there.

The 50k she should win, but it can possibly be the only race she wins.

Plus Karlsson might show up with an Olsson-style WC monster peak...

 

[meat puppet]

What happened to Niskanen? I think she should have been able to stick with the trio, or minimally with diggins.

 

[Bavarianrider]

At least the teamperatures will be higher and the conditions slower and deeper.

Still the same stupid 180 degree corner before the meh Zorzi hill and the skating track was on the narrower side, turning Klaebo's (totally valid) tactic of slowing the pace down into borderline moveblocking at some point.

If Valnes is 7th in a Skiathlon then the course isn't that hard. He's a respectable classic distance skier, but not a factor in a hard skating race.

Don't underestimate Pellegrino tomorrow, he has skied himself into great shape and he was already 8th on the climb 2 years ago. He's a light sprinter and not pack fodder on Alpe Cermis.

I dont think one can know what temperatures will be like in Februar 2006. I also dont think warmer means better racing. I think racing is best when it is Cold but not icy. Just think of Bejing. Those loops and conditions were as good as it gets for modern standards. Also, today when it is warm they use salt which means that conditions are fast.
I am absolutely appalled when I think of next years olympics. I absoluely hate the Val di Fiemme venue. 98/100 Times this venue with its loops an weather Doesn't allow anything but bunch sprint snoozefests.

 

[search]

What happened to Niskanen? I think she should have been able to stick with the trio, or minimally with diggins.

Niskanen said that she didn't recover from the previous Tour stages, where she had to invest more than others.