Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[Mayomaniac]

Sundling made it close by leading for nearly and entire lap and only accelerating late on the sprint climb.
Fosnaes actually looked good in the end, but she probably should have tried to up the pace once she was caught to not let Sundling recover.
I do have to say that the other Norwegian women cheering for her after the finish line and running towards her was classy, the media will already try to portrait her as the scapegoat.
Team Disneyland out of the top 5 and for Italy Gismondi actually did a good race, dropping Laukli and the younger Kälin. 50km skating with soft conditions and she can surprise like Franchi at the last WC...

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Have you ever done a cross country ski race?

No, but I know Fosnaes can not beat Sundling if she doesn‘t make it really hard on her to close the gap (or just stays ahead). The way she raced she couldn‘t win unless Sundling fell.

 

[BullsFan22]

Sundling made it close by leading for nearly and entire lap and only accelerating late on the sprint climb.
Fosnaes actually looked good in the end, but she probably should have tried to up the pace once she was caught to not let Sundling recover.
I do have to say that the other Norwegian women cheering for her after the finish line and running towards her was classy, the media will already try to portrait her as the scapegoat.
Team Disneyland out of the top 5 and for Italy Gismondi actually did a good race, dropping Laukli and the younger Kälin. 50km skating with soft conditions and she can surprise like Franchi at the last WC...

The women tend to wait for their anchor skiers, medals or not. Usually much different from the men.

Sundling is the best skier in the world right now. Fosnæs shouldn’t be criticized too much. Maybe should have tried a dig to see how Sundling was feeling once she was caught, but that’s all she could do. Actually did reasonably well in the final sprint.

Swiss have had phenomenal skis all championship.

 

[Mayomaniac]

The women tend to wait for their anchor skiers, medals or not. Usually much different from the men.

Sundling is the best skier in the world right now. Fosnæs shouldn’t be criticized too much. Maybe should have tried a dig to see how Sundling was feeling once she was caught, but that’s all she could do. Actually did reasonably well in the final sprint.

Swiss have had phenomenal skis all championship.

Swiss Ski invested a lot of money to get great alternatives to fluor products, mainly for Alpine Skiing. All the other variants of skiing were also involved in that project and so the Swiss have had consistently great skis since last year.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Amazing week by Sundling. Her every race was incredible, that crash was the only thing that could stop her.

 

[BullsFan22]

No, but I know Fosnaes can not beat Sundling if she doesn‘t make it really hard on her to close the gap (or just stays ahead). The way she raced she couldn‘t win unless Sundling fell.

That’s what I am saying. She should have either upped the ante as soon as she was caught or tried to ski a tougher pace to begin with. And what I also meant, was that 30 seconds or more in such a short period can really tire you out, especially in softer snow, that’s why it’s not a given that the more fancied skier will just burn off the less experienced one.

 

[Mayomaniac]

That’s what I am saying. She should have either upped the ante as soon as she was caught or tried to ski a tougher pace to begin with. And what I also meant, was that 30 seconds or more in such a short period can really tire you out, especially in softer snow, that’s why it’s not a given that the more fancied skier will just burn off the less experienced one.

Yeah, pretty much this.
More details about the Swiss Skis, it's mainly the no-fluor products from FZero, that were developed together with the Zürcher Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaft, Swiss Ski helped them out with money.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Sundling 28 seconds faster than Joensu over 7.5k. Fosnaes just had to go hard on lap one no matter what. She chose the worst tactics by far going out slowly.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

That’s what I am saying. She should have either upped the ante as soon as she was caught or tried to ski a tougher pace to begin with. And what I also meant, was that 30 seconds or more in such a short period can really tire you out, especially in softer snow, that’s why it’s not a given that the more fancied skier will just burn off the less experienced one.

But the sooner Sundling caught Fosnæs, the longer she had to recuperate before needing to use her sprint. The way this started was simply because the suggestion was about Sundling needing to drop Fosnæs, but given Sundling has every reason to trust her sprint in the head to head, questioning why exactly Sundling would attack Fosnæs rather than just ski along with her and conserve energy for the finish once she'd caught her far enough out that she would have some recovery time.

Ideally for Fosnæs since she clearly didn't have the legs to hold Sundling off entirely, she would have had to make it so that Sundling had to slowly claw back the time so that she caught Fosnæs close enough to the finish that it cost her her ability to sprint. With the caveat that obviously none of us know how Fosnæs' body was feeling mid-race to know what other options would have played out like, allowing Jonna to catch up so swiftly that she would have time to recover if required just made it so Sundling held all the cards.

 

[Mayomaniac]

But the sooner Sundling caught Fosnæs, the longer she had to recuperate before needing to use her sprint. The way this started was simply because the suggestion was about Sundling needing to drop Fosnæs, but given Sundling has every reason to trust her sprint in the head to head, questioning why exactly Sundling would attack Fosnæs rather than just ski along with her and conserve energy for the finish once she'd caught her far enough out that she would have some recovery time.

Ideally for Fosnæs since she clearly didn't have the legs to hold Sundling off entirely, she would have had to make it so that Sundling had to slowly claw back the time so that she caught Fosnæs close enough to the finish that it cost her her ability to sprint. With the caveat that obviously none of us know how Fosnæs' body was feeling mid-race to know what other options would have played out like, allowing Jonna to catch up so swiftly that she would have time to recover if required just made it so Sundling held all the cards.

Nerves were probably also a big factor, being in the final leg for Norway is a lot of pressure for a younger skier.

 

[Silhouette]

Sundling was pretty cooked on the second lap. I really don't like the Norwegian tradition of putting relatively inexperienced skiers on the last leg, thankfully the team supported Fosnæs but the (social) media will be brutal.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Sundling 28 seconds faster than Joensu over 7.5k. Fosnaes just had to go hard on lap one no matter what. She chose the worst tactics by far going out slowly.

Carl went pretty hard the whole way to tire out Joensuu, which worked out well as Joensuu was to tired to challenge in the sprint finish, so I think it’s fair to say Joensuu were close to fulfill her potential, while Sundling was chilling pretty much from 3 to 6,5 km.

Sundling lost 8 seconds to Johaug, but with the finish stretch the last leg is about 10 seconds longer than 3rd leg. That says a lot about how insanely good Sundling was.

I don’t necessarily the problem for Fosnæs was the weak opening the first kilometer. The Norwegians have invester a sh*tload of time and resources with a lot of gps-analysis and tests to find optimal pacing strategies and a fast start is almost never optimal. The problem was that after the first hilltop she failed to really accelerate and do the easy section until the small hill behind the ski jump arena fast. Losing 15 seconds in this flat part was the issue, not losing 20 seconds in the first long uphill.

 

[Cousin Orson]

Nora Sanness and Kristin Fosnaes have done two freestyle races in the WC after the TdS.

20k F Engadin

1. Slind
2. Sanness +3.6
3. Sundling +20.2

14. Fosnaes +1.11.8

20k F Falun

1. Diggins
2. Weng +0.7
3. Andersson +0.8
4. Sanness +5.9

12. Fosnaes +53.2

Sanness has matched the strongest freestyle skiers in the world. Fosnaes has been mediocre - outside the top-10 and around a minute behind. What was the norwegian head coach thinking picking Fosnaes over Sanness? His team selection suggests that the imagined path to victory was to open up a gap early and then try to maintain it (obviously the correct tactics since no one can drop Sundling on this easy skate course nor beat her in a sprint). Did he really think that Fosnaes was more likely to hold on to a lead than Sanness? Is Nora ill? I just don't get it.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

What was the norwegian head coach thinking picking Fosnaes over Sanness? His team selection suggests that the imagined path to victory was to open up a gap early and then try to maintain it (obviously the correct tactics since no one can drop Sundling on this easy skate course nor beat her in a sprint). Did he really think that Fosnaes was more likely to hold on to a lead than Sanness? Is Nora ill? I just don't get it.

I'm not saying it is the right way to select, but this is often how things are done in Norwegian selections:
- Performances before and up to Tour de Ski are often prioritized because the idea is that the skiers should show top form here, then use january and february to prepare for WC, meaning that results in this period often are valued lower.
- Skiers that have not raced individually in the Championship before the relay has become a bit of a no-go after some bad experiences on the mens side with Tonseth in 2018 and Iversen in 2022. I think that is a bit of a dumb way to think, but it is obvious that it's something they are thinking about.

When comparing Fosnäs and Sanness the difference in profiles are quite clear, where Fosnäs is better in the shorter races and Sanness is better on the longer races. I think that is partly why Sanness beating Fosnäs in the 20ks leading up to this World Champs has not been deemed enough to make her the first choice.

Looking at the 10k skating interval start, which is the most relevant format for the wanted situation (starting alone):
Fosnäs was 30 seconds faster than Sanness at 10k in Beito and 5 seconds faster at 10k in Lillehammer. With the assumption that shorter is better for Fosnäs it makes sense in one way to believe Fosnäs in general is a better skier over 7,5 km. And when Fosnäs showed good form in the skiathlon I can understand why (even if I would've probably seen it the other way) they landed on her.

 

[DonAragona]

Foesnaes needed to do one of two things.

1. Go hard the moment Sundling caught up as Sundling clearly didn't have much left at that point.

2. Go up the hill first and ideally come down the hill first.

Fosnaes did about as well as i expected. I thought Heidi would get more like 45 seconds over Ribom, those extra seconds would make all the difference.

 

[BullsFan22]

But the sooner Sundling caught Fosnæs, the longer she had to recuperate before needing to use her sprint. The way this started was simply because the suggestion was about Sundling needing to drop Fosnæs, but given Sundling has every reason to trust her sprint in the head to head, questioning why exactly Sundling would attack Fosnæs rather than just ski along with her and conserve energy for the finish once she'd caught her far enough out that she would have some recovery time.

Ideally for Fosnæs since she clearly didn't have the legs to hold Sundling off entirely, she would have had to make it so that Sundling had to slowly claw back the time so that she caught Fosnæs close enough to the finish that it cost her her ability to sprint. With the caveat that obviously none of us know how Fosnæs' body was feeling mid-race to know what other options would have played out like, allowing Jonna to catch up so swiftly that she would have time to recover if required just made it so Sundling held all the cards.

Of course we don’t know what she was feeling. A hard, but steady pace likely would have been the preferred tactic. Even with Sundling being in form, she already has a lot of racing in her legs already, whereas Fosnæs doesn’t.

 

[BullsFan22]

Foesnaes needed to do one of two things.

1. Go hard the moment Sundling caught up as Sundling clearly didn't have much left at that point.

2. Go up the hill first and ideally come down the hill first.

Fosnaes did about as well as i expected. I thought Heidi would get more like 45 seconds over Ribom, those extra seconds would make all the difference.

Weng slowed down just a bit in the last km or so. The chasing two behind her made quite a bit of ground.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

well, yes and no. Last year the rules only allowed 3 athletes per nation in every start group, so guys like Stroemsheim or maybe even Jacquelin would have missed out.

But yeah, it's not the new rule in general which cost Nelin the win, but the provision.

Well, it's been applied again today so we're likely to see the same. There are a few interesting names a bit lower down the startlist this time but all the big name French, Preuß and the best of the young Germans, Kirkeeide, Halvarsson, Wierer, Minkkinen and Hauser all going in the first 25.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Weng slowed down just a bit in the last km or so. The chasing two behind her made quite a bit of ground.

Pia Fink was also really strong towards the end.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Well, it's been applied again today so we're likely to see the same. There are a few interesting names a bit lower down the startlist this time but all the big name French, Preuß and the best of the young Germans, Kirkeeide, Halvarsson, Wierer, Minkkinen and Hauser all going in the first 25.

Looks like I'm proven wrong, as it definitely seems like the conditions are getting faster. Although that is rather exacerbated by the fact the French appear to have rockets strapped to their skis tonight and if there's one team that doesn't need a ski speed advantage in women's competitions it's the French one.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Ingridemption.

 

[Mayomaniac]

So Vemtura gets to ski the 50km skating, but Davide Graz (who was good in the relay and is a skating specialist) doesn't? Italian internal politics...

 

[BigCoward]

Can someone explain how Graabak could possibly use an illegal binding? Is there not a list of pre approved items? It blows my mind.

 

[BigCoward]

Ingridemption.

And thoroughly deserved as well. Not just because of clean shooting. She'd have been close even if her competition was clean, where's that come from?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

And thoroughly deserved as well. Not just because of clean shooting. She'd have been close even if her competition was clean, where's that come from?

Well we'll see if she can keep that up for the rest of the weekend. Preuß will be happy to see someone deny Jeanmonnot the big points at the moment.