Now Alberto is out, who will win the 2012 Tour de France?

[Zoncolan]

With that TT he couldnt have won it. How was it possible? at the expense of what attacks?

Again, he mistimed his peak by a week. ITT with his 3rd week form would have been much better.

 

[Angliru]

With that TT he couldnt have won it. How was it possible? at the expense of what attacks?

With more TT miles in 2010 he could have won the Tour, considering the form he had then.

 

[airstream]

Again, he mistimed his peak by a week. ITT with his 3rd week form would have been much better.

OK. How much better? He would have dropped Juanho and Froome onthe climbs?

With more TT miles in 2010 he could have won the Tour, considering the form he had then.

Agreed. Contador and Schleck could have killed him harder in the Pyrenees, if he had been such a dangerous threat, though.

 

[theyoungest]

OK. How much better? He would have dropped Juanho and Froome onthe climbs?

Who knows? Froome and Cobo are hardly Contador and Schleck.

Agreed. Contador and Schleck could have killed him harder in the Pyrenees, if he had been such a dangerous threat, though.

Could they? Where?

 

[maltiv]

Could they? Where?

All over the place, like on that one stage when Contador and Schleck both stopped pedalling to look each other in the eyes while everyone else got a 20 second headstart on them. Only took them a couple of seconds to close that gap again though, but really, they were on another level that Tour. If Andy ever finds that form again he'll even win on this year's course.

 

[Kvinto]

Could they? Where?

there was at least one stage (i don't remember precisely what a stage it was) when Contador and Schleck looked each other that much to let go anybody who wanted to... it wouldn't have happened if they considered Menchov as the threat

 

[Kvinto]

All over the place, like on that one stage when Contador and Schleck both stopped pedalling to look each other in the eyes while everyone else got a 20 second headstart on them. Only took them a couple of seconds to close that gap again though, but really, they were on another level that Tour. If Andy ever finds that form again he'll even win on this year's course.

I was thinking about the same stage. Don't you remember its number?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I was thinking about the same stage. Don't you remember its number?

It was the Ax 3 Domaines stage.

 

[Kvinto]

It was the Ax 3 Domaines stage.

thank you!

 

[Angliru]

OK. How much better? He would have dropped Juanho and Froome onthe climbs?

Agreed. Contador and Schleck could have killed him harder in the Pyrenees, if he had been such a dangerous threat, though.

Kind of like how Schleck could have/should have killed Evans in the Pyrenees and Alpes last year? It's easier said than done.

 

[airstream]

Who knows? Froome and Cobo are hardly Contador and Schleck.

Menchov is hardly able to drop anyone, given his passive style

It depends on when the second long TTcould have taken place theoretically. If in 2nd week, Contador and Schleck could have fired in a brutal way on Pailhères

 

[Angliru]

All over the place, like on that one stage when Contador and Schleck both stopped pedalling to look each other in the eyes while everyone else got a 20 second headstart on them. Only took them a couple of seconds to close that gap again though, but really, they were on another level that Tour. If Andy ever finds that form again he'll even win on this year's course.

Of course Frank wasn't there so that has a bearing on how much he will commit to an attack. I think he had that form last year but just couldn't bring himself to leave Frank behind. Even on his epic stage winning attack, IIRC after the stage he indicated that his plan was to draw out his opponents' teams to attempt to reel him in, hoping to soften them up so that Frank could attack, and gain the necessary time (in theory) to put Frank in the yellow jersey by stage end. That performance is evidence enough to me that he had the form to put major time into Evans but didn't because Frank wasn't capable of gaining time from it.

If Bruyneel can convince them to abandon this joint effort to get each other on the podium, then Andy could be a real threat. I'll have to see it to believe it though. Bruyneel is a bit too conservative to send Andy on an epic attack like his Galibier adventure and risk that he could blow spectacularly and lose it all at once.

 

[Zoncolan]

Menchov is hardly able to drop anyone, given his passive style

He did drop people at the Tour in '06, and again in '08, as well as the '08 and '09 Giros.

 

[airstream]

Kind of like how Schleck could have/should have killed Evans in the Pyrenees and Alpes last year? It's easier said than done.

No doubt, but the same relates to potential brilliant Menchov's TT.

He did drop people at the Tour in '06, and again in '08, as well as the '08 and '09 Giros.

True, nonetheless the summary result of his attempts is 15-20 sec on Pampeago plus 5 (i dont remember correctly) on alpe di siusi. He just won the stages in the rest cases. Honestly, I don't believe Menchovs able to go solo. He needs a strong companion to get away. He needs an initiator which's more important. He's afraid of going himself.

 

[bikeguy]

Andy will not have his inferiority complex with AC. He will fly.

 

[Zoncolan]

He needs an initiator which's more important. He's afraid of going himself.

He wasn't afraid of going himself in '08:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fl4eCCa1pJQ
He might be after that fall though.
Him or Evans should have won that Tour. They were the 2 strongest riders in the race.
Of course him and Evans are never going to be able to attack successfully A. Schleck and Contador going uphill. They don't have to. They have to limit their losses. If Andy keeps looking over his shoulder like he did last year...

 

[airstream]

He wasn't afraid of going himself in '08:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fl4eCCa1pJQ
He might be after that fall though.
Him or Evans should have won that Tour. They were the 2 strongest riders in the race.
Of course him and Evans are never going to be able to attack successfully A. Schleck and Contador going uphill. They don't have to. They have to limit their losses. If Andy keeps looking over his shoulder like he did last year...

OK. Does anyone believe that pull could have led to putting time into all the opponents? But I agree to admit 1.5 attempts over 7 years. It's so few that legitimate to consider an attack for Menchov is last resort.

They were the 2 strongest riders in the race.

True. And one of them will win, clearly if they're on form of Tour'11 and Giro'09 respectively

 

[Zoncolan]

OK. Does anyone believe that pull could have led to putting time into all the opponents? But I agree to admit 1.5 attempts over 7 years. It's so few that legitimate to consider an attack for Menchov is last resort.

True. And one of them will win, clearly if they're on form of Tour'11 and Giro'09 respectively

Exactly because his attacks are so few and far between is why I think he would've put time into all of them.
Menchov doesn't attack uphill unless he's super strong.
Mind you, that move was some 6.5 km from the finish line. A lot of time to be gained over that distance.
A. Schleck was the strongest climber (but out of GC at that point) that Tour and he was the only one that could respond.
Who will win depends on the manner they race. If Andy grows a pair, he has a real shot. I still rate him as the third favorite behind Evans and Menchov.

 

[airstream]

Exactly because his attacks are so few and far between is why I think he would've put time into all of them.
Menchov doesn't attack uphill unless he's super strong.
Mind you, that move was some 6.5 km from the finish line. A lot of time to be gained over that distance.

A. Schleck was the strongest climber (but out of GC at that point) that Tour and he was the only one that could respond.
Who will win depends on the manner they race. If Andy grows a pair, he has a real shot. I still rate him as the third favorite behind Evans and Menchov.

I think otherwise. Any shift of rhythm is fraught with big difficulties for Menchov. Only Wiggins suffers more seriously if someone spurts or just slightly increases tempo . 5-6 years ago Evans used to be the same, but then he became a remarkable classic rider, having greatly expanded his range of skills. Evans didn't learn to fly on the climbs, but now he's far more confident and doesn't look at the rivals, fearing to miss any cadence. Menchov remained the same. I suppose, people overrate his chances, especially considering his team which will consist of flat riders. There're 0 (or close ) positive responses about Katusha over russian press - mainly jeers and anticipation of another fail. They hope only on Menchov and his experience. The team support will be purely formal.

 

[ferryman]

Andy will not have his inferiority complex with AC. He will fly.

Part 1 of his problem gone but to truly fly free he needs to unleash his brother. Use him as the battering ram he can be and not try to take him with him under his wing.

 

[Havetts]

Disagreeing with Menchov easily being time put into when they wanted in the Tour of 2010:

Avoriaz -> Possibly Denis' weakest day in the mountains of 2010, you noticed he had troubles hanging on and with the accelerations
Madeleine -> They gained time, 2 minutes iirc.
Port de Bales -> Menchov & Samu react easily to Contadors attack after chaingate.
Ax 3 Domaines -> Where Menchov starts to shine, before the sur place, Contador attacks a few times, Andy follows easily but so does Menchov. After the sur place Menchov attacks with only Samu able to follow.
Tourmalet -> Menchov follows the pace of Gesink for 90% of the climb after Schleck & Alberto have disappeared in the distance, loses 1,40 after 10 kilometres.
Timetrial -> Absolutely blasted every single contender, if it weren't for the wind he probably would've won that.

So where would they gain more time, Avoriaz? Contador wasnt strong there. Ax 3 Domaines? Possibly. Tourmalet? Andy went full out.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Disagreeing with Menchov easily being time put into when they wanted in the Tour of 2010:

Avoriaz -> Possibly Denis' weakest day in the mountains of 2010, you noticed he had troubles hanging on and with the accelerations
Madeleine -> They gained time, 2 minutes iirc.
Port de Bales -> Menchov & Samu react easily to Contadors attack after chaingate.
Ax 3 Domaines -> Where Menchov starts to shine, before the sur place, Contador attacks a few times, Andy follows easily but so does Menchov. After the sur place Menchov attacks with only Samu able to follow.
Tourmalet -> Menchov follows the pace of Gesink for 90% of the climb after Schleck & Alberto have disappeared in the distance, loses 1,40 after 10 kilometres.
Timetrial -> Absolutely blasted every single contender, if it weren't for the wind he probably would've won that.

So where would they gain more time, Avoriaz? Contador wasnt strong there. Ax 3 Domaines? Possibly. Tourmalet? Andy went full out.

Nahh airstream just dont't like Denis.

 

[airstream]

Part 1 of his problem gone but to truly fly free he needs to unleash his brother. Use him as the battering ram he can be and not try to take him with him under his wing.

Right. Sometimes I think, if they weren't brothers, Andy's career would be twice as successful as it is so far. Frank owes him a lot.

Nahh airstream just dont't like Denis

Do you like everyone? Is disagreeing on Menchov a trolling? Seems like this forum has invisible rules.
Alright, Zam_OIyas, could you write a plausible scenario of Menchov's victory, please? Very interesting.

Ax 3 Domaines -> Where Menchov starts to shine, before the sur place, Contador attacks a few times, Andy follows easily but so does Menchov. After the sur place Menchov attacks with only Samu able to follow.

The first attack was really powerful, though it wasn't too serious, only about 100meters. When Contador is ok, he attacks not so. The second attempt wasn't attack at all, by the standarts of Contador, just a slight probing. Menchov accelerated a bit on a sloping section of Ax-3 in the end, using the fact Schleck and Contador were standing still...They simply let him go...


Mainly I agree with your mountain analysis, BUT, discussing the probability Menchov's victory in that Tour, me and Angliru made assumption: the parcours could have included more TT km's. Undoubtedly, its very difficult to reason how the things would have unfolded if there would have really been one more TT. But my point is in this case Schleck and Contador would have ridden on the climbs more agressively, including on Avoriaz. Such an assumption itself implies that they would have acted in the mountains other way, but how - well never know

 

[Where's My Sippy Cup?]

Not Evans

I predict an Evans collapse with someone else on his team finishing on the podium. Most likely Tejay Van Garderen.

 

[DenisMenchov]

I think otherwise. Any shift of rhythm is fraught with big difficulties for Menchov. Only Wiggins suffers more seriously if someone spurts or just slightly increases tempo . 5-6 years ago Evans used to be the same, but then he became a remarkable classic rider, having greatly expanded his range of skills. Evans didn't learn to fly on the climbs, but now he's far more confident and doesn't look at the rivals, fearing to miss any cadence. Menchov remained the same. I suppose, people overrate his chances, especially considering his team which will consist of flat riders. There're 0 (or close ) positive responses about Katusha over russian press - mainly jeers and anticipation of another fail. They hope only on Menchov and his experience. The team support will be purely formal.

We are talking about a guy who responded to every single Di Luca's attack in Giro 2009. Also if you look at Giro 2008, he was the only one to respond to Ricco's attack on Fedaia, also climbed better than race winner Contador on Alpe di Pampeago. Responded to every attack in Vuelta 2007...