Now Alberto is out, who will win the 2012 Tour de France?

[Woody22]

I predict an Evans collapse with someone else on his team finishing on the podium. Most likely Tejay Van Garderen.

I predict you will be wrong.

 

[Fetisoff]

We are talking about a guy who responded to every single Di Luca's attack in Giro 2009. Also if you look at Giro 2008, he was the only one to respond to Ricco's attack on Fedaia, also climbed better than race winner Contador on Alpe di Pampeago. Responded to every attack in Vuelta 2007...

Meh.. I can even tell you how they will reply to you.

They will say that doped up DiLuca and Ricco are no match for Andy in TDF form, and Vuelta? Vuelta's got **** climbers anyway.

Edit: and of course top it off saying that Menchov will have no support now, unlike he had the support back then, blah blah blah blah

 

[The Hitch]

I predict you will be wrong.

I think most people expect that to be wrong

 

[movingtarget]

We are still waiting for the predicted collapse from Evans in last year's TDF. As for Menchov is he the rider he was ? If he can regain his 2010 form he is right in the race for victory. Sastre won the 2008 TDF and seemed to go backwards fairly rapidly. I think there is doubts about Menchov but there is also doubts about most of the other contenders as well.

 

[theyoungest]

I think otherwise. Any shift of rhythm is fraught with big difficulties for Menchov. Only Wiggins suffers more seriously if someone spurts or just slightly increases tempo . 5-6 years ago Evans used to be the same, but then he became a remarkable classic rider, having greatly expanded his range of skills. Evans didn't learn to fly on the climbs, but now he's far more confident and doesn't look at the rivals, fearing to miss any cadence. Menchov remained the same.

You're only basing this on last year's Tour, regarding Evans. Before that he hadn't been impressive on long climbs for a long time. Menchov wasn't great last year, but in the final weeks of the Giro and Vuelta you could see that his climbing and explosiveness was as good as anyone (except Contador, obviously).

 

[airstream]

We are talking about a guy who responded to every single Di Luca's attack in Giro 2009. Also if you look at Giro 2008, he was the only one to respond to Ricco's attack on Fedaia, also climbed better than race winner Contador on Alpe di Pampeago. Responded to every attack in Vuelta 2007...

Di Luca is not a Tour level climber. Sure, he can respond in a good day, otherwise he wouldn't have won 3 GTs. Were there any serious attacks in 2007 Vuelta? 2009 Vuelta was more entertaining in the mountains that 07.

You're only basing this on last year's Tour, regarding Evans. Before that he hadn't been impressive on long climbs for a long time. Menchov wasn't great last year, but in the final weeks of the Giro and Vuelta you could see that his climbing and explosiveness was as good as anyone (except Contador, obviously).

Evans' 2007 Tour was superb too, climbing in particular. Nobody is arguing about his strength, but we are reasoning about Menchov's victory. Its going to be very very difficult.

 

[42x16ss]

Sure, he can respond in a good day, otherwise he wouldn't have won 3 GTs. Were there any serious attacks in 2007 Vuelta?

Menchov had to beat Sastre, Evans, Samu and a fresh Mosquera and he did it pretty comfortably too, beating Sastre by 3 and a half minutes and winning a road stage too IIRC.

Samu in particular threw everything but the kitchen sink at him, I remember him winning 2 or 3 stages in the second half of the race.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Evans' 2007 Tour was superb too, climbing in particular. Nobody is arguing about his strength, but we are reasoning about Menchov's victory. Its going to be very very difficult.

Evans didn't climb like that in last year's Tour, though. The average level wasn't as high for one reason or another.

 

[Oliver]

I voted Evans but Menchov has also a got shot when he's in a superb shape!

 

[Ulle Relaxes]

Cadel, Andy and Menchov.

 

[frandy]

Quite hard to say really i would have to pick Andrea Noe

 

[blaxland]

Im a bit surprised with alot of peoples love for menchov,yes he has won two tours(GIRO,Vuelta)but i really cant see him on the podium in this years tour.The win will be fought out between Andy and Cadel"

 

[greenedge]

Other teams had their chance to do that in 2011 but rode pretty conservatively except for the Galibier stage and Contador's break on the Alpe stage. There is no team at the moment that can compare to CSC in 2008. A team of super domestiques and great climbers. R/Shack aren't in the same class. On paper BMC are still one of the strongest teams. Evans will be quietly confident. Saxo are overrated, Astana and Rabo and Sky are so so. Liquigas do better in the Giro. Katusha re nothing special. Who is left to dominate. No team that I can see. Movistar are not standouts. Europcar are okay but not better than the others. I think all the teams are pretty similar.

I think Movistar could be better than expected if Guiterrez, Kiryienka, Madrazo, Moreno and Quintana ride it along with Valv/ Cobo and Rojas/ Ventoso.
Astana will have a strong team ( Kessiakoff, Silin and a few others to help their leaders ), Sky would have a great TDF GC line up if only they did not have Cav in it. Rabo and Europcar will be able to send riders like Kruisjwijk and Mollema/ Voeckler and Kern up the road. Katusha would be stronger if they sent Moreno or a few others. Don't underestimate RSNT either.

 

[greenedge]

I am surprised at the lack of love for Samu and Brajkovic/ Rolland ( others ). If Rolland can climb as well as he did last year and improve by 20 or so seconds in each ITT he could get into the top 7. Brajkovic was ill last year/ crashed out of the TDF but the ITTs' suit him.

Samu has been a perennial aggressor for the last 2 years and would have gone better if not for the crash ( 2010 ) and lost time in the TTT ( last year ).

 

[Fetisoff]

I think Movistar could be better than expected if Guiterrez, Kiryienka, Madrazo, Moreno and Quintana ride it along with Valv/ Cobo and Rojas/ Ventoso.
Astana will have a strong team ( Kessiakoff, Silin and a few others to help their leaders ), Sky would have a great TDF GC line up if only they did not have Cav in it. Rabo and Europcar will be able to send riders like Kruisjwijk and Mollema/ Voeckler and Kern up the road. Katusha would be stronger if they sent Moreno or a few others. Don't underestimate RSNT either.

Problem for Katusha/Menchov is that Moreno/Losada/Horrach will most likely be riding Giro/Vuelta with J-Rod. In addition to that, they'll have Galimzyanov (lead out by Isaichev) and Freire, also probably Kristoff for sprints. So only people to support Menchov will probably be Gusev and either Vicioso/Florencio. That being said Menchov doesn't need a big train in the mountains, he just has to try and stick with the climbers

 

[movingtarget]

I think Movistar could be better than expected if Guiterrez, Kiryienka, Madrazo, Moreno and Quintana ride it along with Valv/ Cobo and Rojas/ Ventoso.
Astana will have a strong team ( Kessiakoff, Silin and a few others to help their leaders ), Sky would have a great TDF GC line up if only they did not have Cav in it. Rabo and Europcar will be able to send riders like Kruisjwijk and Mollema/ Voeckler and Kern up the road. Katusha would be stronger if they sent Moreno or a few others. Don't underestimate RSNT either.

Sure there are good teams but not a dominant team. R/Shack have to be aggressive to counter the time lost in the TTs but I am not sure it will still be enough to shake off riders like Evans, Menchov etc...I had another look at the route and still think that the TTs will decide it. Andy Schleck will have to be dominant in the mountains but after last year it's hard to see it happening. I agree with what others have said. He rides better when Contador is there, where he can just react to Contador and does not have to be aggressive himself. It will be interesting to see how Bruyneel uses Frank Schleck. If he does not sacrifice Frank, I don't think Andy has a chance.

 

[SiAp1984]

Sure there are good teams but not a dominant team. R/Shack have to be aggressive to counter the time lost in the TTs but I am not sure it will still be enough to shake off riders like Evans, Menchov etc...I had another look at the route and still think that the TTs will decide it. Andy Schleck will have to be dominant in the mountains but after last year it's hard to see it happening. I agree with what others have said. He rides better when Contador is there, where he can just react to Contador and does not have to be aggressive himself. It will be interesting to see how Bruyneel uses Frank Schleck. If he does not sacrifice Frank, I don't think Andy has a chance.

I agree. The double-sword-strategy rarely works out (except for 2009 with Astana when everybody watched Armstrong and eventually Contador went for it - just kidding). But for The Shack, it might be tempting to send guys like Klöden or Horner in groups to provoke reactions. But those groups won't work possibly... As to guys like Rolland, I am not sure how strong his time-trialling will be. I do not know any of his results. I'd love to see Cadel winning another one. Actually, he is one of my favorte riders nowadays. But I would also like Menchov to win it as he then would enter the "Won every GT out there"-club.

 

[movingtarget]

I agree. The double-sword-strategy rarely works out (except for 2009 with Astana when everybody watched Armstrong and eventually Contador went for it - just kidding). But for The Shack, it might be tempting to send guys like Klöden or Horner in groups to provoke reactions. But those groups won't work possibly... As to guys like Rolland, I am not sure how strong his time-trialling will be. I do not know any of his results. I'd love to see Cadel winning another one. Actually, he is one of my favorte riders nowadays. But I would also like Menchov to win it as he then would enter the "Won every GT out there"-club.

Menchov and Evans are similar riders in grand tours while Evans is a more versatile and can also do well in one day races. I am an Evans fan but I also like Menchov. Rolland has a pretty good TT but not as good as the best GC riders. I would not be surprised to see Rolland finish ahead of Voeckler this year. I am in two minds about R/Shack. Even if Bruyneel uses clever tactics, I have doubts about how effective Kloeden and Horner will be. Both are very strong in races of about one week or so but they have seen better days I think as far as grand tours go. Andy and Frank will both have to be in great form and will have to be very aggressive for more than periods of thirty seconds. The trouble with the epic break like Galibier last year is that they pay for it the next day and the day after.

 

[FreeWheelin]

Im a bit surprised with alot of peoples love for menchov,yes he has won two tours(GIRO,Vuelta)but i really cant see him on the podium in this years tour.The win will be fought out between Andy and Cadel"

Its not there in the early pages of this thread, but The Hitch made such a case that he went from no mention to #1 contender... I wonder if it because The Hitch got pretty long odds for him, but does not want to share... Just kidding

 

[DenisMenchov]

Problem for Katusha/Menchov is that Moreno/Losada/Horrach will most likely be riding Giro/Vuelta with J-Rod. In addition to that, they'll have Galimzyanov (lead out by Isaichev) and Freire, also probably Kristoff for sprints. So only people to support Menchov will probably be Gusev and either Vicioso/Florencio. That being said Menchov doesn't need a big train in the mountains, he just has to try and stick with the climbers

Menchov just needs 2 riders to keep him safe in the peloton. Kozontchuk and Ardilla did that in last couple of years. This year Gusev and Trofimov.

 

[trevim]

Menchov just needs 2 riders to keep him safe in the peloton. Kozontchuk and Ardilla did that in last couple of years. This year Gusev and Trofimov.

And both can climb a bit too

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

This time last year, after several years of watching him find a way to lose, not many would give Cadel a chance.

Now after 1 year of finding a way to win he's become a pretty hot favourite.

I don't expect him to collapse very poorly - but I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

 

[palmerq]

This time last year, after several years of watching him find a way to lose, not many would give Cadel a chance.

Now after 1 year of finding a way to win he's become a pretty hot favourite.

I don't expect him to collapse very poorly - but I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

I concur, it is hard to predict with cadel, remember in 2009 he was one of the favourites and ended up nowhere, missed the podium in the giro in 2010 and a great performance to win the tour last year... It's a very good route for him and if he has the same form as last year he has a brilliant chance but you are right he could easily fall away again..


I am sticking with andy for the win though

 

[El Pistolero]

This time last year, after several years of watching him find a way to lose, not many would give Cadel a chance.

Now after 1 year of finding a way to win he's become a pretty hot favourite.

I don't expect him to collapse very poorly - but I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

I agree. He's no Lance Armstrong, that's for sure.

 

[martyfulu]

jc peraud did well last year and is a good time triallist and had to help roche last year so could go better . He wont win it though but worth a mention i suppose.