Off season. We need some Giro 2011 discussion.

Page 11 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

Who will win the 2011 Giro d Giro d'Italia

  • Other ( Surprise winner)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0
Sep 2, 2010
1,853
0
0
The Hitch said:
But Scarponi was clearly stronger and i find it somewhat unfair that Nibali gets launched above Evans and Scarponi because other people performed better in a team time trial.

I think you have to factor in though that Nibali was working for Basso and even had to wait for Basso on a few occasions. Plus the attack he put in on Grappa which got him a dozen seconds probably did his own chances more harm than good as on Zoncolan the next day he suffered probably as a result.
 
Jun 14, 2010
34,930
60
22,580
whittashau said:
I think you have to factor in though that Nibali was working for Basso and even had to wait for Basso on a few occasions. Plus the attack he put in on Grappa which got him a dozen seconds probably did his own chances more harm than good as on Zoncolan the next day he suffered probably as a result.

I already adressed this by pointing out that Nibali gained a lot by being Bassos companion. They didnt attack him on the Grappa ascent or on Mortirolo because Basso was their concern.

They didnt try to break him at any point.

No way would Scarponi ride hand in hand with Nibali up the Mortirolo if Basso wasnt there.
 
Mar 17, 2009
8,421
959
19,680
Now that AC is aiming the Giro...........................................................
What is he going to do about his spring allergy problem?
 
Jun 9, 2010
2,007
0
0
hfer07 said:
Now that AC is aiming the Giro...........................................................
What is he going to do about his spring allergy problem?

I was thinking the same hours ago... well that didnt stop him in 2008 right?
 
Mar 19, 2009
9,892
1,790
20,680
whittashau said:
I think you have to factor in though that Nibali was working for Basso and even had to wait for Basso on a few occasions. Plus the attack he put in on Grappa which got him a dozen seconds probably did his own chances more harm than good as on Zoncolan the next day he suffered probably as a result.

I absolutely remember him waiting for Basso a couple of times (which of course, was probably the right move).

The Hitch said:
I didnt have eurosport in the early 2000's and while i know roughly who won what back then, i didnt realise Rujano podiumed a Giro. My bad.
That was the first Giro I was able to watch on live television. I was in Brazil at the time and I remember being pleasantly surprised it was on TV...and wondering who the little guy with the ears was.:p
The Hitch said:
But Scarponi was clearly stronger and i find it somewhat unfair that Nibali gets launched above Evans and Scarponi because other people performed better in a team time trial.
Precise reason why I don' t like TTTs in GTs.
The Hitch said:
But the reason i dont believe that will launch him into challenging at the Giro is because the lineup there is clearly stronger.

The lineup is absolutely stronger than last year and I don't think he can win if AC and DM are truly firing, but I'd give him a shot at the podium.

I guess one place we differ is that I think Nibali helped Basso more than the other way around.

Regarding Anton, I'm a fan of his and prefer him to Nibali, but I'm not quite as sold on him as a contender for a GT win just yet. He certainly looked good at last year's Vuelta and I was rooting for him to win, but at this point he's probably shown the least of all the guys we're talking about. His best GT result is an 8th at the Vuelta a few years back. Now he might have won last year if not for his crash, but we just don't know as there were 5 stages left with significant chances for time gaps. As much as I hope he's going to take that next step, I just can't put Anton up there as a podium contender just yet, at least until he can figure out how to stay on his bike.
 
Jun 14, 2010
34,930
60
22,580
jaylew said:
Precise reason why I don' t like TTTs in GTs.

Bizzarely i like them even though i usually support the underdog and they hinder the underdog. It more than anything demonstrates how much it is a team sport. It shows individuals needing to work together. It also highlights the roll of domestiques whereas on other stages usually just the winner gets all the credit. I like something different once in a while as well.

I like that it gives far more riders the spotlight. Usually the starts arent even shown, and in itts only the last 20 or so get shown. In a ttt however each rider gets 2 seconds on the screen in the cool helmets and bikes as the team is presented.

I just prefer them shorter i guess.

Forcing the likes of Androni and BMC to go up against Liquigas in a 32 k up hill tt where the wind turns out to be unkind to the weaker teams to boot, is just too much.

Also punctures particularly suck in ttts. Poor fellows have to then do hard itts to stay in the time limit. Another reason why 32 k is just pushing it. They should be 20k max imo. I like 14 k like in Vuelta.

I guess one place we differ is that I think Nibali helped Basso more than the other way around.
Nibali did help Basso more than the other way round, but that doesnt mean Nibali didnt get a net positive from working with Basso. I think he did.

The lineup is absolutely stronger than last year and I don't think he can win if AC and DM are truly firing, but I'd give him a shot at the podium.

SHot at podium of course. Personaly i favour Scarponi though and hope to see Rujano there too. And i think Purito showed during Vuelta, even after a long season that he had class. If hes on form i think its very possible that hell make enough time to be able to hold out the tt.
I just can't put Anton up there as a podium contender just yet, at least until he can figure out how to stay on his bike.

Im not sure it was Antons fault. As i remember the guy in front of him crashed as well.
 
Oct 16, 2010
379
0
0
if ruyano arrives at the giro n good condition, he will be a very hard client to deal with.
he has a good team, with serpa and monsalve in the mountains, but he will loose time in ttt.
if....that is the keyword in my post...
 
Aug 12, 2009
3,639
0
0
hfer07 said:
Now that AC is aiming the Giro...........................................................
What is he going to do about his spring allergy problem?

Go to a doctor. Get a TUE. It is what I'd do. Yes, it is valid. My allergy tablet is banned under the WADA code. Yes, that is how purile and backward thinking some of these doping rules are and WADA and the ardent dope catchers wonder why things don't always go hand in hand. They need to be straight shooters. AC should go to his doctor if he has problems. The UCI will approve it and WADA I believe would as well. People tend to have documented allergy problems...meaning one can be quite sure he isn't fudging this, it is a legit concern.

Maybe the poll needs to be updated? This thread is from last year. I voted Ricco. He won't be racing. AC is now racing. I want to change my vote. He'll win by a country mile. All this in the space of a week or two. Wonder what will happen come May?
 
Feb 20, 2010
33,064
15,272
28,180
profff said:
if ruyano arrives at the giro n good condition, he will be a very hard client to deal with.
he has a good team, with serpa and monsalve in the mountains, but he will loose time in ttt.
if....that is the keyword in my post...

Don't forget Lelle! Sure there won't be any farcical 2008 fireworks anymore, but he's a more than capable helper (and will get in a lot of breakaways if last year's Volta was anything to go by)...
 
Mar 19, 2009
9,892
1,790
20,680
The Hitch said:
Bizzarely i like them even though i usually support the underdog and they hinder the underdog. It more than anything demonstrates how much it is a team sport. It shows individuals needing to work together. It also highlights the roll of domestiques whereas on other stages usually just the winner gets all the credit. I like something different once in a while as well.
We're pretty much on the same page. If you're going to have one, keep it short. I enjoy watching them, I just don't want someone to win or lose because of one.



The Hitch said:
Im not sure it was Antons fault. As i remember the guy in front of him crashed as well.
Yeah, I'm mostly joking about Anton's crash problems in GTs. He also crashed out of the '08 Vuelta while looking good and I remember him crashing a bunch in the Tour one year as well.
 
Sep 2, 2010
1,853
0
0
jaylew said:
Regarding Anton, I'm a fan of his and prefer him to Nibali, but I'm not quite as sold on him as a contender for a GT win just yet. He certainly looked good at last year's Vuelta and I was rooting for him to win, but at this point he's probably shown the least of all the guys we're talking about. His best GT result is an 8th at the Vuelta a few years back. Now he might have won last year if not for his crash, but we just don't know as there were 5 stages left with significant chances for time gaps. As much as I hope he's going to take that next step, I just can't put Anton up there as a podium contender just yet, at least until he can figure out how to stay on his bike.

Plus even if he does stay on his bike he has to contend with 40kms of ITT and 20kms of TTT with perhaps the worst time trailing pro tour team there is.

He's just purito #2 with less bike handling
 
Mar 12, 2010
878
492
11,080
The Giro is shaping up to be a very exciting Grand Tour with a number of potential contenders-

It will be interesting to see how many of the pure climbers survive the first 10 days. If so and given the parcours we may see some surprises in GT.

Sella
Pozzovivo
Rujano
Serpa
Durate
Dan Martin (??)

Otherwise there are a number of big favourites-

Contador, Nibali, Menchov, Anton, Scarponi and others like Sastre, Kreuziger who could prove contenders.

Throw in some outsiders who want to do well etc Lovkvist and Arroyo and you have the makings of a really exciting Giro.
 
Aug 18, 2009
4,993
1
0
I hope Pozzovivo has a good Giro. The early stages were disatrous for him last time, before he got to any stages that could of suited him. Was a shame.
 
Mar 31, 2010
18,136
6
0
The Hitch said:
Umm Anton, Purito and Scarponi have all shown more in gts than Roman and Rujano, while a wild card is also a superior climber.

They are all better climbers than Nibali as well. I think people hype him up for the Giro because he has the title- gt winner next to his name.

And Nibali may have "come from the beach" (though i dont buy that) but as i have pointed out many times he got 2 minutes 36 on Scarponi in the ttt and ended up beating him by 9 seconds.

It shows clearly who the better rider was in that race. And nibali will lose some of his ttt advantage this year. He wont have
a as strong a team for the ttt
b as much distance to make time in the ttt
and c scarponi wont have such a weak team.

He also wont have Basso protecting him from attacks. Imagine if Basso wasnt there on the Grappa or Mortirolo. Would Scarponi, 30 secs or so back at the time have smiled to Nibali and just said "lets work together and let you take the podium on sunday". Of course not. Sure he lost about a minute shielding Basso in Strade Bianchi but overall he gained a lot more with the Basso teammate card.


I dont get it

none of those have done a podium with exception of quim rodriguez I think, anton has never even been close, besides rujano was 23 at his podium he is stronger than ever winning 19 races in 2 years for a climber.
 
Mar 31, 2010
18,136
6
0
whittashau said:
Why? Liquigas has every rider bar Kiserlovski in their squad still and Basso wont ride, but have Alan Marangoni and Wurf who are better than average Time trialists. Especially Marangoni who is probably one of italy's best in the discipline.

marangoni isn't even going to ride the giro
 
Jun 14, 2010
34,930
60
22,580
Ryo Hazuki said:
none of those have done a podium with exception of quim rodriguez I think, anton has never even been close, besides rujano was 23 at his podium he is stronger than ever winning 19 races in 2 years for a climber.

They still have shown more in gts than Kreuziger which is the point i was making.
 
Mar 31, 2010
18,136
6
0
taiwan said:
I hope Pozzovivo has a good Giro. The early stages were disatrous for him last time, before he got to any stages that could of suited him. Was a shame.

90% chance they are not getting a wildcard, or more 99% since acqua en sapone seem 99% sure they will be in
 
Mar 19, 2009
9,892
1,790
20,680
Ryo Hazuki said:
none of those have done a podium with exception of quim rodriguez I think, anton has never even been close, besides rujano was 23 at his podium he is stronger than ever winning 19 races in 2 years for a climber.

No GT podiums for JoRod.
 
Aug 18, 2009
4,993
1
0
Ryo Hazuki said:
90% chance they are not getting a wildcard, or more 99% since acqua en sapone seem 99% sure they will be in

Meh. I suppose Garzelli did get a very nice stage last year. So, Androni, Farnese Vini, Geox, Acqua e Sapone, probably?
 
Feb 20, 2010
33,064
15,272
28,180
jaylew said:
No GT podiums for JoRod.

Though he has been on the podium at the end of a GT - to collect the KOM jersey from the 2005 Vuelta :)

etapa17_04.jpg
 
Jun 14, 2010
34,930
60
22,580
Though i like Visconti, Its a shame Farnese Vini have are already in as i would prefer to see Colnago there.
 
Aug 18, 2009
4,993
1
0
The Hitch said:
Though i like Visconti, Its a shame Farnese Vini have are already in as i would prefer to see Colnago there.

I'm happy enough with Farnese Vini. Visconti should be quite good to watch and may be in the race for the points jersey, and I still think Sinkewitz could impress and ride a good GC (if that's part of the plan). Guardini could get another outing also, but he may have his hands full with Cavendish, Farrar, Greipel, Petacchi...
 
Feb 20, 2010
33,064
15,272
28,180
I think Sinky is more likely to do what Scarponi did in 2009 than what he did in 2010.

I think a stage is certainly possible.
 
Jun 14, 2010
34,930
60
22,580
The question we get every year at the Giro.

Who will wear number 1. Would they give it to Arroyo. Would be nice. In 09 i think they gave it to Garzeli on account of being the oldest winner. He would qualify for that again this year. Last year it was the world champion but Thor aint no climber.

I fear they might give it to Nibali, but since hes got that honour coming 3 months later id rather they let someone else.

Maybe Contador as its his first visit back since winning and hes the biggest name.