Cloxxki said:
The average person isn't particularly good at it, even though the Wikipedia propaganda that was posted here might suggest otherwise.
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The average person isn't particularly good at it, even though the Wikipedia propaganda that was posted here might suggest otherwise.
Ah, i remember the first time i saw Contador, it was in Setmana Catalonia (?) in 05, back then i thought, wow! this guy might challenge for the vuelta in the future, might get a podium or 2, i have never been so wrong in my entire life 
Vino attacks everyone said:Ah, i remember the first time i saw Contador, it was in Setmana Catalonia (?) in 05, back then i thought, wow! this guy might challenge for the vuelta in the future, might get a podium or 2, i have never been so wrong in my entire life
He was probably riding clean there. So young, so much to learn... ;-)
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Glenn_Wilson said:cap cap from the little toy pistol to end it. I wonder if his steak will be well done or rare?
That toy pistol owned your boy Lance two years in a row. Maybe you should be cooking and serving his steak, Tex.
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spalco said:
Early (as in, the first couple of weeks of) January 2012 is the target at the moment. CAS is sticking to that timeline so far and now that the hearing's done and all the documentation is in, the committee has (thankfully) not changed it.
Man, I am dense some times. Now I understand what El Pais was getting at. Perhaps LMG saw all of this, too.
Bert doped with CB in the offseason, when it is much safer. He also withdrew blood then, when it is also safer, and stored it frozen, as someone of his means could do, to avoid the withdrawal-transfusion cycles during the season. He separated red cells from plasma, as you must do for long-term storage, and stored the red cells in a DHEP-containing bag, while the plasma went into some kind of container lacking DEHP.
Now you have DEHP, which leaches into the red cells from the bag, separated from CB, which is in the plasma. On the night of July 19, after that day’s stage, or the morning of July 20, before that day’s stage, he transfused the cells, probably reconstituting with saline. Why did he do it before the rest day? Not a really good answer comes to mind. After transfusion, your HT goes up. You can reduce it somewhat by transfusing saline but you can only pump so much liquid into your system. He might have figured a hard day’s stage, before that night’s test, would reduce it a little further. But if he was confident that he was transfusing a low enough amount, he wouldn't have needed to do that.
So he tested positive for DEHP on July 20, but not for CB. On July 21, he transfused plasma containing CB. Why? Because he still wanted to lower his HT as much as possible. Maybe he had no saline so he used the plasma.
Another possibility I thought of: he withdrew whole blood in June, stored it in a bag without DEHP (presumably by chance, not by forknowledge, but who knows?). He transfused that on July 21, putting CB into his system. On the previous day, he transfused saline, which happened to be in a DEHP-containing bag.
Overall, I like the first scenario better. It's not perfect, but I think overall is quite plausible. If the transfusion scenario were to be judged on its own, independently of the contamination alternative--as if nothing at all was known about the possibility of contamination--I don't know how likely the panel members would be to buy it. But if the panel members come to a decision on which is more plausible or likely, transfusion or contaminated meat, I don't think there is any contest.
Bert doped with CB in the offseason, when it is much safer. He also withdrew blood then, when it is also safer, and stored it frozen, as someone of his means could do, to avoid the withdrawal-transfusion cycles during the season. He separated red cells from plasma, as you must do for long-term storage, and stored the red cells in a DHEP-containing bag, while the plasma went into some kind of container lacking DEHP.
Now you have DEHP, which leaches into the red cells from the bag, separated from CB, which is in the plasma. On the night of July 19, after that day’s stage, or the morning of July 20, before that day’s stage, he transfused the cells, probably reconstituting with saline. Why did he do it before the rest day? Not a really good answer comes to mind. After transfusion, your HT goes up. You can reduce it somewhat by transfusing saline but you can only pump so much liquid into your system. He might have figured a hard day’s stage, before that night’s test, would reduce it a little further. But if he was confident that he was transfusing a low enough amount, he wouldn't have needed to do that.
So he tested positive for DEHP on July 20, but not for CB. On July 21, he transfused plasma containing CB. Why? Because he still wanted to lower his HT as much as possible. Maybe he had no saline so he used the plasma.
Another possibility I thought of: he withdrew whole blood in June, stored it in a bag without DEHP (presumably by chance, not by forknowledge, but who knows?). He transfused that on July 21, putting CB into his system. On the previous day, he transfused saline, which happened to be in a DEHP-containing bag.
Overall, I like the first scenario better. It's not perfect, but I think overall is quite plausible. If the transfusion scenario were to be judged on its own, independently of the contamination alternative--as if nothing at all was known about the possibility of contamination--I don't know how likely the panel members would be to buy it. But if the panel members come to a decision on which is more plausible or likely, transfusion or contaminated meat, I don't think there is any contest.
- Jan 3, 2011
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Merckx index said:
It begins to sound quite speculative and almost as farfetched asthe steak-story. I think they would be better off to keep it simple. I mean the more details without proof the more speculative and easy to pick apart it will be.
But the again. the defense's explanation is also quite specualtive and farfetched.
- Dec 7, 2010
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Moose McKnuckles said:That toy pistol owned your boy Lance two years in a row. Maybe you should be cooking and serving his steak, Tex.
Seems a bit harsh to call someone their boy?
I am not a chef and besides I would have just ate whatever steak was avalible in FRANCE. Not order up some special cut from some pal to bring over on a hot summers day!
Glenn_Wilson said:Seems a bit harsh to call someone their boy?
I am not a chef and besides I would have just ate whatever steak was avalible in FRANCE. Not order up some special cut from some pal to bring over on a hot summers day!
Contador got homesick, so he wanted a spanish steak, can`t really blame him
- Jul 25, 2011
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Vino attacks everyone said:Ah, i remember the first time i saw Contador, it was in Setmana Catalonia (?) in 05, back then i thought, wow! this guy might challenge for the vuelta in the future, might get a podium or 2, i have never been so wrong in my entire life
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTtrUjWvAJE
I find this, not so powefull attack
- May 13, 2009
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Merckx index said:
So far so good. Why transfuse before the rest day? Probably because it takes the body about 1 day to adjust to the added blood. Although it was a mountain stage, it ended in Pau, so no MTF. Remember this was the stage when a certain LA tried to win from an escape.
The peloton was brought home by Thor Hushovd. The stage after the rest day was a MTF (Tourmalet), so it was much more important to be in great shape then which means you want to transfuse two days before that. You don't want 'stomach trouble' on a day like this.Merckx index said:
No way. Having plasma but no saline? Sounds incredible. Saline is so easy to come by. Running out of it would be terribly amateurish. I can't believe that.
Merckx index said:
I think you're wrong here. Blood bags are pretty much the only bags with a high level of plasticizer. They are made particularly soft. Saline bags (and almost any other bags) are different and don't have by far the same level of plasticizer. This does not make sense.
Merckx index said:
As was mentioned earlier in the thread, the June 20 (and earlier) urine samples were analyzed in Lausanne with less sensitive equipment. The latter samples were analyzed in Cologne with more sensitive equipment. Maybe that's it then. Everything came from one bag he transfused before the rest day. The Lausanne lab just did not pick up on it.
Here's what should be done: there exist undoubtably urine B-samples from July 20 (the ones analyzed in Lausanne). They should be re-analyzed by the Cologne lab (or any lab with the more sensitive equipment). It would be interesting to see whether Clen (and plasticizer metabolites) show up in that B sample or not.
The last thing which I found interesting is that someone mentioned in the thread that Bertie might be exempt from the usual crit threshold. I've never heard that, but it could explain why we have never, ever seen a single data point from Bertie's passport. Think the PR nightmare for the UCI if that's true and it comes out. Maybe Bertie got the exemption early on and nobody thought much about it when he applied (and got it). Of course it would be hard for the UCI to backtrack on that once they saw how much Bertie was winning. And now it's just that 800 lb gorilla in the room which everybody is pointedly ignoring.
- Jul 25, 2009
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Cobblestones said:
That's plausible; the delayed effect is something that has been mentioned on a number of occasions. I also wondered if the rest day transfusion tradition means riders are watched very closely that day, so doing it the day before makes practical sense.
Cobblestones said:
+1 The only plausible explanation for plasma use instead of saline that I can think of, is if there is some performance advantage known only to those directly involved with sports doping.
Cobblestones said:
It would certainly answer a lot of questions. Wonder if they are allowed to use B samples to get supplementary evidence to support an AAF on a different day...
Cobblestones said:
Those blood data, if they are correct, hint at a comprehensive ongoing blood modification program IMO. Separation of red cells from plasma, long term storage and ongoing masking efforts all seem very plausible in that context. But again, why mask with plasma not saline? I don't get it.
- Sep 25, 2009
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no, not the only. plasma infusions have been around for awhile, at least since the fuentos times. what do you think the spanish police found in those 100+ bags ? frozen plasma !! other confessed dopers also described plasma injections. it has many advantages over saline, primarily that it contained body's own hormones plus it can be deep frozen for a long storage.I Watch Cycling In July said:
also, as i mentioned earlier, it's far from the established fact that all pre-positive samples were tested in lausanne. in fact i am growing more confident that 20 july sample was tested by cologne. i provided the reasoning earlier.
Cobble, thanks, I was hoping someone else would pick up the ball here. I thought about having more time for the body to adjust to the transfusion, but was not sure exactly what that means. Does a rider have any ill or odd effects immediately after a transfusion which dissipate over a day or two? If so, then it makes sense to do it a little ahead of time.
Wrt plasma infusion, again, I have been missing something. I think what WADA is proposing, according to El Pais, is a plasma storage involving dessication. IOW, it is stored as a powder, easily transportable, which can be quickly reconstituted with distilled water. This makes it somewhat easier to understand a second transfusion. Bert wanted to reduce his HT further on July 21, so instead of using saline, he just added water to the powder and put that in. In addition to the salts present in normal saline, there would be other salts and numerous other substances that would have a beneficial effect. Not particularly PE, but restorative in the same sense that a saline infusion would be, probably a little more. In any case, with the powder, it would be even easier to do than saline, as all you need is sterile water.
(Keep in mind, Bert would not even have to transfuse the reconstituted plasma. He could drink it, just the way you would drink a salt solution. Some of the beneficial substances would be degraded in the digestive system, but some would be absorbed, and it would be perfectly legal to do this, AFAIK. However, drinking would not lower the HT as effectively as transfusion would).
To summarize: transfusion of red cells on July 19 or 20, followed by a second transfusion of plasma on July 21. The second transfusion I believe would have been planned all along, as a way of further lowering the HT. This being the case, it would have made sense to save the dried plasma, rather than use it to reconstitute the red cells. Saline was used for the latter.
Are you sure the July 20 sample was not analyzed in Cologne? I thought that was only speculation. If it was analyzed somewhere else, and it turns out it would have been positive, then as noted earlier, it’s possible Bert took CB before the Tour and his positives reflect that and not transfusion. I have made a rough calculation that for Bert to pass all CB tests beginning with the start of the Tour, at 2 ng/ml, the half-life of the second slower clearance of CB from the body would have to be on the order of eight days. I don’t know what it actually is. In cattle it has been estimated as 3 days, but the initial clearance in cattle is much faster than in humans, 10 hr vs. 35 hr. So this scenario might be possible.
Alternatively, as you say, Bert might have transfused on July 19/20. Then there is no need to bring in a second transfusion of plasma alone. It may be that WADA is pursuing both this scenario and the one where there is a second transfusion. The reason I think they might is because the calculated CB dose reported, 200 ug, is higher than necessary to explain 50 pg/ml if transfusion took place on July 21, but might be necessary if transfusion took place a day earlier. OTOH, if WADA were pursuing this possibility, they would surely have tested the July 20 sample at Cologne by now, and would not even be considering the alternative scenario where plasma is infused the following day.
Edit:
If this is correct, then we are down to just the second, plasma transfusion. This would be what WADA is hanging its hat one.
Now I think the remaining pieces of the puzzle fall in place:
1) different times at which DEHP and CB entered Bert’s system: check
2) transfusion of red cells before the rest day: check
3) second transfusion of plasma alone: check
Sure, it’s a little more involved than ideal, it would be more plausible if DEHP and CB entered the body at the same time, but it has a lot of the elements you would expect:
1) off-season PED use
2) off-season blood withdrawal
3) use of high tech storage procedures to avoid/reduce need for withdrawal-transfusion cycles
Wrt plasma infusion, again, I have been missing something. I think what WADA is proposing, according to El Pais, is a plasma storage involving dessication. IOW, it is stored as a powder, easily transportable, which can be quickly reconstituted with distilled water. This makes it somewhat easier to understand a second transfusion. Bert wanted to reduce his HT further on July 21, so instead of using saline, he just added water to the powder and put that in. In addition to the salts present in normal saline, there would be other salts and numerous other substances that would have a beneficial effect. Not particularly PE, but restorative in the same sense that a saline infusion would be, probably a little more. In any case, with the powder, it would be even easier to do than saline, as all you need is sterile water.
(Keep in mind, Bert would not even have to transfuse the reconstituted plasma. He could drink it, just the way you would drink a salt solution. Some of the beneficial substances would be degraded in the digestive system, but some would be absorbed, and it would be perfectly legal to do this, AFAIK. However, drinking would not lower the HT as effectively as transfusion would).
To summarize: transfusion of red cells on July 19 or 20, followed by a second transfusion of plasma on July 21. The second transfusion I believe would have been planned all along, as a way of further lowering the HT. This being the case, it would have made sense to save the dried plasma, rather than use it to reconstitute the red cells. Saline was used for the latter.
Are you sure the July 20 sample was not analyzed in Cologne? I thought that was only speculation. If it was analyzed somewhere else, and it turns out it would have been positive, then as noted earlier, it’s possible Bert took CB before the Tour and his positives reflect that and not transfusion. I have made a rough calculation that for Bert to pass all CB tests beginning with the start of the Tour, at 2 ng/ml, the half-life of the second slower clearance of CB from the body would have to be on the order of eight days. I don’t know what it actually is. In cattle it has been estimated as 3 days, but the initial clearance in cattle is much faster than in humans, 10 hr vs. 35 hr. So this scenario might be possible.
Alternatively, as you say, Bert might have transfused on July 19/20. Then there is no need to bring in a second transfusion of plasma alone. It may be that WADA is pursuing both this scenario and the one where there is a second transfusion. The reason I think they might is because the calculated CB dose reported, 200 ug, is higher than necessary to explain 50 pg/ml if transfusion took place on July 21, but might be necessary if transfusion took place a day earlier. OTOH, if WADA were pursuing this possibility, they would surely have tested the July 20 sample at Cologne by now, and would not even be considering the alternative scenario where plasma is infused the following day.
Edit:
If this is correct, then we are down to just the second, plasma transfusion. This would be what WADA is hanging its hat one.
Now I think the remaining pieces of the puzzle fall in place:
1) different times at which DEHP and CB entered Bert’s system: check
2) transfusion of red cells before the rest day: check
3) second transfusion of plasma alone: check
Sure, it’s a little more involved than ideal, it would be more plausible if DEHP and CB entered the body at the same time, but it has a lot of the elements you would expect:
1) off-season PED use
2) off-season blood withdrawal
3) use of high tech storage procedures to avoid/reduce need for withdrawal-transfusion cycles
According to this story :
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/cycling/story/2011-11-24/alberto-contador-doping-case-hearing-ends/51381598/1
- It is an established fact that Contador got steak from a particular butcher in Spain (I wasn't aware that this was ever proven, only alleged by Contador's team).
- Contador's lie detector test was allowed as evidence (even though it was NOT done by an independant technician, and is therefore highly tainted).
- The photo of Contador leaving the meeting, showed a VERY confident El Pistolero.
- Not to mention WADA's usage of a questionable prosecution strategy (using a highly specific scenario for transfusion that could be eaily refuted).
- And the request that "no leaks" be made in the media (so that people discuss what a poor job the prosecution made).
I think the decision was made by Wada, and the UCI to have Contador "exonerated" before the hearing began. Because they were acting as the prosecutors, it would have been easy for them to intentionally "throw the case".
Regardless, from what I have seen, if you are a betting man, there is money to be made by betting on his "acquittal".
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/cycling/story/2011-11-24/alberto-contador-doping-case-hearing-ends/51381598/1
- It is an established fact that Contador got steak from a particular butcher in Spain (I wasn't aware that this was ever proven, only alleged by Contador's team).
- Contador's lie detector test was allowed as evidence (even though it was NOT done by an independant technician, and is therefore highly tainted).
- The photo of Contador leaving the meeting, showed a VERY confident El Pistolero.
- Not to mention WADA's usage of a questionable prosecution strategy (using a highly specific scenario for transfusion that could be eaily refuted).
- And the request that "no leaks" be made in the media (so that people discuss what a poor job the prosecution made).
I think the decision was made by Wada, and the UCI to have Contador "exonerated" before the hearing began. Because they were acting as the prosecutors, it would have been easy for them to intentionally "throw the case".
Regardless, from what I have seen, if you are a betting man, there is money to be made by betting on his "acquittal".
- Jul 25, 2009
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python said:
OK - that absolutely clears that question up thanks. In that case there's plenty of support for the separate blood and plasma transfusions scenario, and no obvious logical counter, assuming the July 20 CB analysis was done by Cologne.
WADA may well have a pretty robust case here, but who knows what the lawyers will manage to make of it all.
Andynonomous said:
You're reading too much into that, IMO. The writer may have forgot to use the word "allegedly."
Andynonomous said:
agree with this.
he's been highly confident throughout. the same for Riis. they've been planning ahead, singing out loud which races AC will be racing next year, etc.
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