a discussion about joint probability turned in to a disjoint discussion...the path i predicted only few posts up as highly probable and likely to get disjoint. again, we can have fun and compare apples to oranges but that’s not what was taking place in the courtroom.
at this point in time having followed most of the developments closely for the last 18 months, i believe that the leaks from 2 weeks ago are indeed as close to what actually happened in the court room as we were let on up to now. the evidence points to a different decision-making path, albeit also based on statistics, than the 2 learned gentlemen above are arguing….
it’s quite true that eventually the panel will have to chose btw the steak and the plasma bag. but it will almost certainly not be based on impractical and misleading analysis of joint probability of the 2 events.
in stead, the panel has considered each event credibility on its own merits as based on the evidence presented by both sides -transfusion scenario against transfusion scenarios, contamination against contamination…
for ex, the article clearly states that the 2-step transfusion theory was swept aside b/c bert’s lawyers proved it ‘impossible‘. well, that’s an inaccurate terminology perhaps due to the mistake by the journo or the legal rhetoric of bert’s lawyers…regardless, the cas merely had to consider the 2 step transfusion not credible rather than impossible.
i ran my own investigation as to the cas thinking and tried to promote the appropriate discussion as to the reasoning by starting a separate thread but, as often happens in the clinic it went nowhere…good we have only few days left to wait