x0einstein0x said:
And it should be faster if you consider advances in technology and training. Of course that's an argument often used to distract from doping practices, but still it is true.
I've personally experienced the transition from steel to aluminum and then to carbon frames, for instance, and of course the difference in power output between those is huge(!). Moreover, exercise science has come a long way since the late 90s, too.
I completely disagree. Using a simple model, I calculated that the total power absorbed by frames is on the order of a hundred milliwatts when a cyclical input of 400 Watts is used. To be ultra conservative, let's call it 0.5 Watts. That's 0.1% of total input. The difference *between* frames is of course much less than that. At best, let's say a stiff frame is twice as efficient as a flexible frame. That would be a savings of ~200 mW. More realistically, it's well under a 100 mW. That's 0.025% of total input.
Compare that to tires, which absorb ~20% of total input.
And then there's the old "sanity check". How do you use race results to isolate performance differences due to equipment?
I chose two races (Milan San Remo and Paris Roubaix) which have not altered their courses dramatically in the last 50 years. Both are one day races, which eliminates the variables of recovery, nutrition, rest, etc. They also are very long races which emphasize time to exhaustion and sustainable power output rather than peak FTP, etc. If you take a look at the winning times and separate them by decade, there is no significant difference between the groups. There is also a flat trendline and a fairly large but stable residuals (deviation from the mean).
From that I concluded that road conditions and equipment have had little to no effect on race outcomes for the last fifty years. In other words, given a good team Sean Kelly would still be winning classics in this era.
FYI, I also analyzed Tour de France results. That was an eye opener. If you plot average speed for the winner versus stage length you get a nice linear response. 1970 to 1990 all falls along the same line with very small residuals. 1990 to present, you get the exact same linear response with identical slope...
Except that 1990+ the line is almost 7 km/hr above the 1970-1990 line!! From that I concluded that the introduction of oxygen vector doping allowed the riders to recover from hard efforts in a dramatic fashion. That is, they can go hard and fast each day, every day.
John Swanson