- Jul 1, 2011
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Wallace and Gromit said:I think the point is that in 1998, no-one knew how successful Lance was going to be. The "deals" at that point weren't worth very much.
The dominant post-Festina rider could have been one of many "likely lads", as predicting senior, top-level success from junior or early career promise is one of the hardest things to do in sport. Even after the 1998 Vuelta, very few pundits were tipping Lance for anything in the 1999 Tour.
So it's unlikely that such a canny operator as Hein would have bet everything on Lance. It seems more likely that he would have diversified and invested in several riders, knowing that most of them were doomed to be pack-fodder.
Remember Don King after the Rumble in the Jungle? "I arrived with the champ and I left with the champ". You need to keep your options open.
It's entirely possible that once Lance started winning, Hein did concentrate solely on Lance.
Not sure that really follows though does it? Just in the abstract, if you pick say five 'likely lads', the best case scenario is that you have one likely winner, and four disappointed losers - all of whom are ticking time bombs to reveal your potential corruption, especially if they find out you've backed another horse (we'll call them 'Landis's' for arguments sake). The more Landis's the more loose ends, and the more potential 'revenge' self-sacrifices. And if you're backing everybody on the basic idea of playing the numbers, then why bother? Why not just not back anyone, and someone will still win, but the other four won't immediately be potential enemies of yours?
And in the more particular, how many of those likely lads in the post-Festina world both have leverage over you in the form of missed diagnosis of Cancer (and hence direct evidence of your corrupt approach of basically ignoring dope testing), and also have strong incentives over you in the shape of their rich backers inviting you into their business deals (as Race Radio is suggesting). As well as more generally the opportunity for you to move the sport into an under-developed but rich TV market? And what's more, if it doesn't work out for the rider, well what's the risk - if you've been actively helping him, and him alone, what's the incentive for him to squeal (that guy was cheating to help me win, and I still lost. . .)
So really, I'm not sure I buy that someone would play the odds and corruptly help lots of riders, as I can't possibly see what the payback would be for the administrator.
