Official Lance Armstrong Thread: Part 3 (Post-Confession)

[Herbstrong]

He missed his chance to settle for a reasonable amount and is now stuck taking this to the end.

Why can't they settle?

 

[aphronesis]

It would be nice if you wrote a post that actually made sense

So you're saying the US federal lawsuit is an intentional instance of thoroughgoing reform in the international sport as a whole? Specific to "the sport".

Good job. You should sell that one to Sky before the tour kicks off.

 

[Fortyninefourteen]

For the use in a civil case?

Retrieving money is enforcement. Nothing to do with evidence presented in a civil case.

Do you actually read anything on this thread or just 'stream' post everything? and get upset if it doesn't fit your agenda? (That is too obvious )

Allow people to discuss and if you don't like what they post then you can choose to ignore and not interrupt.

Again it just ends up like the last discussion when you went on and on on a topic you knew very little about. Let's not go down the hedge fund route again. No one needs that, yes?

Assume:

1) Judgement in favor of US and relator
2) Immediate Appeal
3) Years go by, again.
4) Appeal rejected.
5) Then, an attempt to collect against judgement.

Get you popcorn and diet soda supply cued up.

 

[ScienceIsCool]

Why can't they settle?

They can, but why would they? Now that there are no hurdles to the case proceeding, it's pretty much a slam dunk. You know, since Lance has admitted everything. The only real question now is how much the damages will be.

John Swanson

 

[Race Radio]

Why can't they settle?

The price is too high, and it continues to increase. Lance figures it is better to roll the dice

 

[thehog]

Assume:

1) Judgement in favor of US and relator
2) Immediate Appeal
3) Years go by, again.
4) Appeal rejected.
5) Then, an attempt to collect against judgement.

Get you popcorn and diet soda supply cued up.

Assume it goes to trial. 1-2 years. Immediate appeal on various fronts. Attempt to settle in between. Appeal rejected. Attempt and attempt again, collection attempt, settlement in some form. Lump sum with year on year future earnings being garnished.

I think that's how it works generally?!

Although his quest for a peaceful life may lead him to fold his hand and cash in the chips. Government heat for years on end would be no fun.

Couldn't happen to a nicer guy!

If Goldman-Sachs can report to the Feds a Green card holder and have them tracked I'm sure the Feds can do the same of their own accord what did that guy do? Copy his scripting source code to the cloud and never use it?

 

[Digger]

The price is too high, and it continues to increase. Lance figures it is better to roll the dice

Wrong......

 

[Race Radio]

Wrong......

How exactly?

Do you think the settlement number has gone DOWN since the Feds joined the case? Why?

 

[Race Radio]

Assume it goes to trial. 1-2 years. Immediate appeal on various fronts. Attempt to settle in between. Appeal rejected. Attempt and attempt again, collection attempt, settlement in some form. Lump sum with year on year future earnings being garnished.

I think that's how it works generally?!

And then they turn it over to America's collections agency.....the NSA?

 

[Digger]

How exactly?

Do you think the settlement number has gone DOWN since the Feds joined the case? Why?

Listen you are on here talking as if you know what this case entails...by definition you can't know. So you are bluffing. That's the key point.

 

[Race Radio]

Listen you are on here talking as if you know what this case entails...by definition you can't know. So you are bluffing. That's the key point.

Ahhh, so when you said I was was wrong you didn't really know if what I was saying was incorrect or not, or wanted to add to anything to the conversation, you just wanted hope I was wrong.

Got it

 

[Scott SoCal]

I asked the local aphrophysicist these questions earlier;

1. Will the Feds win?
2. If yes, what will be the size of the penalty?
3. What method will the court use to formulate the penalty?

Since so much of this is speculation (Digger), here's my thoughts;

1. Feds win.
2 & 3. The penalty will be substantially less than the $100 million number being thrown around.

I think Monkeyface likely has a legitimate argument regarding actual damages and those arguments will mitigate much of the penalty.

Pure speculation here..... I'm thinking the penalty will be in the $10 - $20 million range and the court will cite gravity of damages.

Oh and in the end, Floyd winds up with more of Lance's cash in his bank account than Lance has in his own.

 

[Digger]

Ahhh, so when you said I was was wrong you didn't really know if what I was saying was incorrect or not, or wanted to add to anything to the conversation, you just wanted hope I was wrong.

Got it

Post after post since last night...you'd think you were privy to the details and the case.
But carry on...time will show.

 

[thehog]

Ahhh, so when you said I was was wrong you didn't really know if what I was saying was incorrect or not, or wanted to add to anything to the conversation, you just wanted hope I was wrong.

Got it

It's not a matter of being wrong or right.

I think perhaps the point is more that there are others closer than you to the actual story. But are a lot more discreet and don't wish to flood a thread with nonsense and wishful thinking.

 

[Race Radio]

don't wish to flood a thread with nonsense and wishful thinking.

Riiiight, like the NSA sharing info to nail Lance?

http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/NSA-handing-over-non-terror-intelligence-4706227.php

the NSA limits non-terrorism referrals to serious criminal activity inadvertently detected during domestic and foreign surveillance. The NSA referrals apparently have included cases of suspected human trafficking, sexual abuse and overseas bribery by U.S.-based corporations or foreign corporate rivals that violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

Who is posting nonsense again?

 

[Race Radio]

Post after post since last night...you'd think you were privy to the details and the case.
But carry on...time will show.

What did I post that you disagreed with or thought was incorrect? Instead off attacking me personally perhaps you could actually point out where I am wrong?

 

[peloton]

I don't care who is right or wrong, chill guys please.

When is Lance going to court?

 

[DirtyWorks]

It will be hard to show USPS enjoyed benefits if they made losses in the years after sponsorship.

You don't spend much time in Marketing departments. They positive-ROI everything. The years after weren't part of the deal. The deal, as I recall, was to promote USPS services in Europe at the time of the sponsorship deal.

The losses starting in the GWB era were because the administration forced the USPS to fund **all** of its future retirement obligations over a period of a few years. So, yeah, of course the topline number will be negative. As a semi-private service, they are generally accepted to run near break-even by Congress. For reasons I don't know or care to find out GWB decided to plunge the service into red ink.

 

[thehog]

Riiiight, like the NSA sharing info to nail Lance?

http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/NSA-handing-over-non-terror-intelligence-4706227.php



Who is posting nonsense again?

No not really. More like you repeating the same messages adnausem like "Lance wants to roll the dice" etc. when you have no direct knowledge on either side of what's going on.

It's just pure speculation on your behalf. You're a long way from the actual events that are actually occurring and are mearely providing your own interpretation from publicly available court documents. That's all.

Just so it's clear. You don't actually have inside information on the Federal case. Giving the impression that you do is.... well you know... making stuff up.

But by all means provide your own opinion. Nothing stops you on that front.

 

[BroDeal]

Riiiight, like the NSA sharing info to nail Lance?

http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/NSA-handing-over-non-terror-intelligence-4706227.php

the NSA limits non-terrorism referrals to serious criminal activity inadvertently detected during domestic and foreign surveillance. The NSA referrals apparently have included cases of suspected human trafficking, sexual abuse and overseas bribery by U.S.-based corporations or foreign corporate rivals that violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

Who is posting nonsense again?

Aren't you the same guy who spent years talking about Lance and the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act?

 

[Afrank]

I don't care who is right or wrong, chill guys please.

When is Lance going to court?

Deserves to be highlighted by a mod. Remember guys, be the goat.

 

[Race Radio]

Aren't you the same guy who spent years talking about Lance and the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act?

How is that related to the Qui Tam case?

Do you really think the NSA is gathering info for the Feds on the Qui Tam case? Really?

 

[thehog]

How is that related to the Qui Tam case?

Do you really think the NSA is gathering info for the Feds on the Qui Tam case? Really?

No one said they were. But you can play if it was said and drag out the thread.

Again so it's clear. You have no direct knowledge of the case on either side. Speculate all you want but do pretend you know "insider" information.

You don't.

And agree with previous post. Chill out. Don't take it so seriously

 

[Race Radio]

I don't care who is right or wrong, chill guys please.

When is Lance going to court?

Agreed, it is unfortunate that some are more intent on conflict then discussing the topic.

Lance was scheduled to go under oath in the Qui Tam case on Monday. This depo was put on hold by the judge while he ruled on Armstrong's attempt to quash. Not they he has ruled it can continue I expect he has given them some time, maybe a month, to coordinate their schedules for the various depositions.

 

[Merckx index]

I asked the local aphrophysicist these questions earlier;

1. Will the Feds win?
2. If yes, what will be the size of the penalty?
3. What method will the court use to formulate the penalty?

Since so much of this is speculation (Digger), here's my thoughts;

1. Feds win.
2 & 3. The penalty will be substantially less than the $100 million number being thrown around.

I think Monkeyface likely has a legitimate argument regarding actual damages and those arguments will mitigate much of the penalty.

Pure speculation here..... I'm thinking the penalty will be in the $10 - $20 million range and the court will cite gravity of damages.

Oh and in the end, Floyd winds up with more of Lance's cash in his bank account than Lance has in his own.

I appreciate this on topic, on point post, amidst all the noise here, and though we have no way of knowing at this point, your prediction sounds reasonable to me. I would just reiterate that it was reported the Feds refused an offer of I think $5 (or was it 10??) million, so they must be pretty confident that they can get quite a bit more than that.

Edit: But if you are right, this contradicts your earlier post when you said you thought he would be driven to essentially bankruptcy. I'm pretty sure he could afford $20 million, plus $15 million or so to SCA, and still have enough left over to live pretty comfortably.

One thing I don't understand is how they determine the multiple of damages. E.g., suppose the court decided LA had cost USPS $5 million. Can the Feds automatically get three times that, or is the factor also subject to judicial review, and if so, on what basis do they decide?