Official thread: Giro d'Italia

[RDV4ROUBAIX]

There's a very good reason why the call Di Luca "the Killer". Never heard of Italian pro cyclists moonlighting with the Russian Mafia? The Russian mob makes the Italian mob look like pre-pubescent pimple poppers. Omerta my @ss!!

 

[Kazistuta]

What's up with that, bringing our native hero into this? Do you think he and Di Luca use similar hairproducts?

 

[Leopejo]

There's a very good reason why the call Di Luca "the Killer". Never heard of Italian pro cyclists moonlighting with the Russian Mafia? The Russian mob makes the Italian mob look like pre-pubescent pimple poppers. Omerta my @ss!!

Very OT: have you read Gomorra by Roberto Saviano? If not, I warmly suggest (it is translated in most languages; it also made into a film). It tells about Camorra, the mafia in Naples area, the number one criminal organization in Italy (old school Sicilian Cosa Nostra fades in comparison) and perhaps in Europe - but it tells fascinating and even entertaining stories.

One of the chapters is devoted to a camorra accountant and his lifetime dream come true: in reward to his good work, some camorra bosses organized him a visit in Russia, to meet the legendary Mr. Kalashnikov.

 

[Mellow Velo]

The real racing will start on stage 14. Central Italy, as I have previously said.
The two stages that could take the maglia rosa and dump him at the foot of the top 10 are stage 16 and stage 19. Stages 14 and 15 will also see other hopefuls stumble.
Forget the Blockhaus. No exceptional time gaps there.

Today is another oddity of a stage. Very short and mostly a downhill charge.
The weather forcast isn't too promising.
If we have wet roads, there will undoubtably be accidents.
Won't suit the likes of Basso, at all.

This isn't one climb, but two, joined by a 7.5km, 2.1% false flat.
First section is 7.5kms at 7.2%. Expect only chancers, if anyone here.
Second section is tough. 10kms at about 8%. The final 7ms of which go closer to 9%.

So, completely different type of climb, to yesterday. A climbers climb.
Let's hope they remember they have to make use of this slope.

 

[Zoncolan]

If the Liquigas boys want to win this Giro, they should make a move today.
I expect Pellizotti and/or Basso to start attacking in the final 7-8 k's.
If they really open up, Di Luca, Garzelli and yes LL won't be able to follow.
I think it'll be either Pellizotti or Basso in pink at the end of the day, but they must attack!

 

[Leopejo]

he final 7ms of which go closer to 9%.

A stage ending with seven meters at 9 %. I wonder how the sprinters would approach that. Would they start later? Will they shift gears (7 meters are less than one crank revolution...).

EDIT: and don't let the SI purist in me start with the 7 milliseconds!

 

[Zoncolan]

Well we saw that Cunego doesn't have it anymore in the big climbs - he should focus on stage wins and classics. Maybe he's the cleanest of the big boys out there?
Lovkvist was surprisingly strong today, though completely on the limit.

Menchov, Basso and Leipheimer for the overall. Di Luca has to take a lot of bonus seconds and time on Monte Petrano and Vesuvius if he is to make the podium, cause he'll lose masses in the big TT.
Sastre is coming into form nicely, he should be up there for the Vesuvius.
Gibo - sorry for him, seems age finally caught up with him.
Pellizotti and Bruseghin cracking - told you so. Just wait 'till those samples are re-tested from last year's Giro.

 

[BroDeal]

Well we saw that Cunego doesn't have it anymore in the big climbs - he should focus on stage wins and classics. Maybe he's the cleanest of the big boys out there?
Lovkvist was surprisingly strong today, though completely on the limit.

Menchov, Basso and Leipheimer for the overall. Di Luca has to take a lot of bonus seconds and time on Monte Petrano and Vesuvius if he is to make the podium, cause he'll lose masses in the big TT.
Sastre is coming into form nicely, he should be up there for the Vesuvius.
Gibo - sorry for him, seems age finally caught up with him.
Pellizotti and Bruseghin cracking - told you so. Just wait 'till those samples are re-tested from last year's Giro.

+1 to about all of this.

Although I think DiLuca will do better in the ITT than expected. Its technical nature will work to his advantage.

I got burned picking Cunego as a dark horse for last year's TdF. I learned my lesson.

 

[jaylew]

For me, it's definitely looking like Leip, Menchov, Basso, and Sastre in some order.

DLuca looks strong, but I just don't think the TTs will work out for him.

Rogers also still has an outside shot as I think he's going to get better as the race goes along.

 

[ingsve]

Lovkvist was surprisingly strong today, though completely on the limit.

I think the jersey was what kept him up there for so long. Without it he might have lost a minute.

 

[BroDeal]

I think the jersey was what kept him up there for so long. Without it he might have lost a minute.

The jersey gives the wearer the strength of ten grinches plus two.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Lövkvist will probably fall back to 8/9th in GC, or if he completely bonks even far worse ofcourse. I don't think he can maintain this level for very long. That would be a major suprise to me, because in the past he never actually had a good level in high mountain stages.

 

[ingsve]

Lövkvist will probably fall back to 8/9th in GC, or if he completely bonks even far worse ofcourse. I don't think he can maintain this level for very long. That would be a major suprise to me, because in the past he never actually had a good level in high mountain stages.

He has had good results in high mountains before but just not in a big tour. Last years Tour de Suisse with the Flumserberg and the Verbier for example wasn't exactly easy climbs.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Keep in mind these two "mountain" stages weren't really that serious. Yesterday had two Category 2 climbs that weren't really that contested. And today after a very long easy descent, one Category 1 climb that wasn't really that long or steep.

As MellowVelo says, no real big climbing stages this Giro. Stage 10 is long, but over the "easy" side of Sestriere, far from the finish. And just over 2000m the Cima Coppi. Stage 16 is the only big climbing day, with several punishing climbs. This only leaves the neutered Blockhaus, and Vesuvius, which will be fairly similar to today.

 

[ingsve]

Also there hasn't been any real aggressive riding yet. It's been very high pace but that plays into the hands of the strong TTers that aren't as good at constant tempo changes like real climbers are. It's no surprise that the riders that are destined to ride best at the long TT are almost all in the top 5 already.

 

[marinoni]

universal commentator

Maybe we should find out where this clown is and stage a bloodless coup d'etat. There are plenty of people in this forum who know far more. Seriously though, why are you all insisting on sticking with the Universal coverage. cyclingfans.com has a perfectly good link to Eurosport. The video's not great, but who cares? And you get to listen to the legendary Kelly as a bonus.

 

[Leopejo]

Also there hasn't been any real aggressive riding yet. It's been very high pace but that plays into the hands of the strong TTers that aren't as good at constant tempo changes like real climbers are. It's no surprise that the riders that are destined to ride best at the long TT are almost all in the top 5 already.

Maybe because they are the best.

I'm sure Gibo would have been very aggressive, as would have been his teammate Scarponi, without forgetting poor Soler. But if you don't have it, there's not much you can do.

 

[ingsve]

Maybe because they are the best.

I'm sure Gibo would have been very aggressive, as would have been his teammate Scarponi, without forgetting poor Soler. But if you don't have it, there's not much you can do.

Yes, that's part of it. I think the reason why there hasn't been any real attacks is because the riders that would benefit from that type of riding hasn't been the strongest riders so the people that benefit from a high steady pace has been allowed to set the standards.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Yes, that's part of it. I think the reason why there hasn't been any real attacks is because the riders that would benefit from that type of riding hasn't been the strongest riders so the people that benefit from a high steady pace has been allowed to set the standards.

I think this is true. However, before the course was stripped of the trip into France and the Blokhaus snipped, Simoni, DiLuca and Cunego all said that they would try to attack early to discourage Liquigas and Astana from setting that high pace. They said they would disrupt their pacing, shed their domestiques and isolate them. It's a good strategy, but they haven't even tried it yet. Granted, DiLuca hasn't had to, and seems to have been content on following Basso and riding a smart race. But Cunego was dropped fairly early today, then Soler, and Simoni lost a handful of seconds at the end as well.

It's easy for me to sit here at my computer and ask "why aren't these guys attacking?" But when they say they would, and then really, only Soler's short bursts at the end yesterday is all we're seeing, I have to wonder if they have a serious plan for the future stages to attack and splinter the group even if they blow up - and Simoni has definitely ridden this way in the past, as has Soler.

But the lack of mountains also makes this difficult. Stage 10 looks like another perfect day for DiLuca. This leaves Stage 16, which is perfect for a multi-tiered attack. We'll see.

 

[Bala Verde]

So tomorrow... Isn't that a Voigt stage, if he doesn't go, it might be Cancelara? I'd picked Voeckler if he hadn't been at it today already. But instead, BB'll send Sprick or Tschopp... Is Millar going to be in the breakaway? I bet an ISD rider will be there as well (Grivko?). Lampre has to set something straight, so I think they are going to re-evaluate their tactics and aim for stage wins instead. Silence, perhaps Gilbert, and Milram and Katyusha need someone up there as well. It wouldn't surprise me if Rabobank would send some one as well, like Horillo, Kozuntchuk or Tjallingi after today's success.

Add your random passionate Italians and before you know it, you've got a 12-15 man breakaway...

 

[ingsve]

I'm thinking that Di Luca has been content with sitting tight to sprint to the win yesterday and today he also knew that if he was there at the end he would get the maglia rosa from bonus seconds.

After he loses a couple minutes to most of the other contenders in the TT I think that he'll change his tactics a bit. He seems to be the one in the best shape of the pure climbers so if anyone is going to disrupt the current tactics then it's him.

The other possible suspect would be Sastre who I'd guess is setting up to make a Alp D'Huez type of attack later on to make his clim for the title. Until then I'm sure he's just biding his time saving energy.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Tomorrow does indeed look like a breakaway stage:

 

[Grater]

If a break was to get away I've narrowed the teams down and riders who will be represented. In reference to Bala Verde's post.

Barloworld will send someone to the front. Bellotti, Froom and Augustyn will be the main candidates. Augustyn is 3 minutes down so that will be a risk of being chased down as he can climb. Froom did a lot of work yesterday? I would say Bellotti.

BBOX will send someone up there. I don't think it will be Voeckler. Tschopp or Sprick will be the two candidates. Although it wouldnt' surprise me if Voeckler tried again. He's that type of rider and he wants a win.

David Millar will definately try and get in the group for Garmin. He has unfinished business after last year.

Caisse may try and send David Garcia Lopez.

ISD - As Visconti tried yesterday, I don't think he will try again today. Although I could be wrong. Dario Cioni would be my main bet or Andriy Grivko.

Lampre will send someone. The logical choice will be Manuele Mori

Serramenti might try someone again. It was Serpa yesterday so again I don't think he will try. Maybe Rodriguez or Scarponi? Probably Scarponi as he is far down.

Columbia will send someone. Possoni is my bet.

Katusha will send someone. Ignatiev will be the guy.

Milram will send someone aswell. I reckon Marcus Fothen.

Saxo Bank will have someone. Cancellara or Voigt. I fancy Cancellara!

Cervello may send Gerrans up the road. Possibility.

Although don't count out one or two of the sprinters try and get there. Pozzato or Forster.

Gilbert will definately try and get in the break.

AG2R will send Efimkin

Although dont' count out a sprint finish with 40 - 60 riders featuring Pettacchi and Cavendish. Afterall the last climb comes more than 40km from the end. Depends how motivated Columbia are. Considering they don't have the pink jersey if they can't get anyone in the break, then see them work their **** off for Cavendish.

 

[El Imbatido]

Ive got a question about 'he who must not be named' and this seemed like the place it should go (yes i know i shouldnt bring him up again but i just want this q answered).

What was with he's bike yesterday was his stem loose or something. Was watching italian feed and dont speak it, so would like to know.

And why was he on a different coloured madone. Looked like a normal paint job madone? Well on the dodgy feed i had it did. Why. Lighter than the urine stained other one? Did he have a mechanical earlier in the stage and swapped.? Dunno?

Answers anyone?

 

[180mmCrank]

Ive got a question about 'he who must not be named' and this seemed like the place it should go (yes i know i shouldnt bring him up again but i just want this q answered).

What was with he's bike yesterday was his stem loose or something. Was watching italian feed and dont speak it, so would like to know.

And why was he on a different coloured madone. Looked like a normal paint job madone? Well on the dodgy feed i had it did. Why. Lighter than the urine stained other one? Did he have a mechanical earlier in the stage and swapped.? Dunno?

Answers anyone?

So I was watching Eurosport and it was discussed - it was noticed that LA was spending time stretching his back...and is was their conjecture that he was tilting his handlebars to adjust his riding position. Kelly was pretty brutal in his assessmnet that in his experience when you start adjusting your position in this way it is usually more a sign that you are struggling to find your form...and from what happened today it would seemto have played out that way.

IMHO and I have said this before in this forum - it's one thing to think you can do something it's another thing entirely to get on your bike an actually do it. I am not saying Lance is a completely spent force but if there is anything more to see it won't be before the TdF. I would not be surprised if he drops out of the Giro before the end.