Official thread: Giro d'Italia

[BroDeal]

"Wow, this Ullrich training method is a real b!tch."

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

Levi Is the big favourite to win the Giro!! no doubt about it. Tell me who is going to beat him in the TT and tell me who is going to drop him big time in the mountain stages....Hes really strong. Levi Will get the firts place to make it two for Astana.
Lance will give it a try in the TT and then all minds to the Tour.

I could think of perhaps one - Denis Menchov.

 

[lookkg386]

"Wow, this Ullrich training method is a real b!tch."

I actually think it's the muscle mass he put on rather than fat he is struggling to lose...

 

[lookkg386]

Levi Is the big favourite to win the Giro!! no doubt about it. Tell me who is going to beat him in the TT and tell me who is going to drop him big time in the mountain stages....Hes really strong. Levi Will get the firts place to make it two for Astana.
Lance will give it a try in the TT and then all minds to the Tour.

Now I believe he is too, with Lance seemingly admitting he can't win and will work for Levi. Astana seem to have the strength to deliver Levi into good spots for the big mountains.

 

[Leopejo]

Depilated men wearing lycra. And in pink too.

"Wanna touch my arm? You'll have to wait..."

"... as it's his turn first."

 

[Kalle_92]

Stage 8 expectations

Hey guys! Whats your expectations for today? Is it downhill before the finish, or what kind of finish is it? Will we see the breakaway succeed?

 

[Rosedale]

I'm thinking Levi hasn't shown as many of his cards as some of the others (Basso, Diluca,...). After the TT it will be interesting to see what happens between him and Mick Rogers, if the conventional wisdom about the TT is correct.

Leipheimer has done what he usually does - nothing. He follows wheels, never attacks, never initiates anything. During last year's Vuelta, a Spanish cycling correspondent likened him to chewing gum - difficult to get rid of, just sticks to you.

It's a good thing that all riders are not like him. Racing would be so boring.

 

[ingsve]

Leipheimer has done what he usually does - nothing. He follows wheels, never attacks, never initiates anything. During last year's Vuelta, a Spanish cycling correspondent likened him to chewing gum - difficult to get rid of, just sticks to you.

It's a good thing that all riders are not like him. Racing would be so boring.

Until today where he attacked in a bad spot that cost him energy and gained him nothing.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Leipheimer has done what he usually does - nothing. He follows wheels, never attacks, never initiates anything. During last year's Vuelta, a Spanish cycling correspondent likened him to chewing gum - difficult to get rid of, just sticks to you.

It's a good thing that all riders are not like him. Racing would be so boring.

Funny post! Especially the part about the gum. That's great.

Levi has said many times he can't really accelerate in the mountains the way someone like Contador or Sastre can. He did go to the front in the 2007 Tour and "attack" late on a mountain stage. And once Contador was safely up the road on the Angliru, he "accelerated" to drop others. But because of his style, it doesn't benefit him to ride at the front, as it makes him easy to attack. At least in his eyes. None the less, he could ride from time to time the way Basso does at the front and try to ride people off his wheel.

 

[Anonymous]

Leipheimer has done what he usually does - nothing. He follows wheels, never attacks, never initiates anything. During last year's Vuelta, a Spanish cycling correspondent likened him to chewing gum - difficult to get rid of, just sticks to you.

It's a good thing that all riders are not like him. Racing would be so boring.

theres always the liquigas approach, who seriously dont look like they have recovered from there exertions the other day... thought it was stupid at the time.. they looked knackered today..

 

[180mmCrank]

Leipheimer is good in the mountains and better in the ITT ... he's not great at either ... but the combination will always be enough to get him on or close to the podium. I don't see him winning without it being the result of some other people making big mistakes or suffering some mishap. I see the same things being said about Evans and maybe even Menchov

 

[Escarabajo]

Leipheimer is good in the mountains and better in the ITT ... he's not great at either ... but the combination will always be enough to get him on or close to the podium. I don't see him winning without it being the result of some other people making big mistakes or suffering some mishap. I see the same things being said about Evans and maybe even Menchov

If they are not doping, I prefer them to be like that instead of explosive un-natural riders. I never thought Greg Lemond was anything near explosive and we all know that he was a freak physically. So that goes to show how tough is to just keep up with the leaders in the mountains in the Grand Tours.

 

[Parrot23]

Basso, Rogers - TT wild cards

Curious to see how Basso vs. Rogers pans out in TT later. Given both are riding well in mountains, could take minutes out of di Luca. Don't see him taking the time back.

Basso in the TT is the big imponderable this year. Should play a big role in final podium places.

Of course, Menchov and Levi should hammer it, reliably as usual. But Basso and Rogers, and maybe Sastre, to me are the real wild cards/imponderables in TT, and for final podium.

(Also curious to see how many minutes Wiggins can take out of di Luca in the TT--though too far back now at -4:45 to make much diff.)

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Good post Parrot, completely agree. Menchov and Levi have to be looking at this ITT and wondering how many minutes they can gain. Rogers may be in no man's land here, but should do well I think. While DiLuca and others are going to be wondering how to make up inevitable losses.

Basso could end up close to the top, or below DiLuca. No clue. Big mystery.

 

[180mmCrank]

What do you think we can expect from Basso in the ITT? - I agree it's going to be key to how things unfold. Is there anything we could look at that would give us anything to go on? (I guess reletive to Menchov and LL?)

...and then how well Basso holds up for three weeks - still some question marks here. It's getting exciting

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

In T-A and Trentino Basso's times were not great. Average, middle of the pack. If this were the exact same situation, I'd say he'd be looking at a 3-4 minute loss to Leipheimer and Menchov (and a few others), maybe more.

But it's not the same situation. He has more miles under him, is more focused on this one race, and the course is technical, probably the most technical TT of the season in any major race. Picture that ITT in the 2005 Tour at Saint Étienne where the Chicken kept crashing, only even more. Teams are saying it is more like a breakaway with wild descents.

Who will that benefit? If Floyd Landis were racing, this is the kind of course that suits him perfectly, as he was good at ITT's and a great descender. A 30 year old Lance would have cleaned up. But one is going to have to make some real guesses here. I'd even venture to say you could question if this is a cakewalk for Levi, as he's not known as a breakaway artist or great descender. Menchov either for that point.

It's also a very long ITT. So whomever is fit, and mentally strong will benefit.

I'd also like to know who has ridden the course most previously and how many times? Being very familiar with it will be a benefit. I can blitz through some of my training rides and leave my friends who normally drop me, behind, that sort of thing. They're all professionals. But if someone knows this course very well, they'll make maybe a minute on it.

 

[lookkg386]

Certainly feel like the real Giro starts with stage 10, and after 1 (and a half?) rest days anything could happen.

 

[BroDeal]

In T-A and Trentino Basso's times were not great. Average, middle of the pack. If this were the exact same situation, I'd say he'd be looking at a 3-4 minute loss to Leipheimer and Menchov (and a few others), maybe more.

But it's not the same situation. He has more miles under him, is more focused on this one race, and the course is technical, probably the most technical TT of the season in any major race. Picture that ITT in the 2005 Tour at Saint Étienne where the Chicken kept crashing, only even more. Teams are saying it is more like a breakaway with wild descents.

Who will that benefit? If Floyd Landis were racing, this is the kind of course that suits him perfectly, as he was good at ITT's and a great descender. A 30 year old Lance would have cleaned up. But one is going to have to make some real guesses here. I'd even venture to say you could question if this is a cakewalk for Levi, as he's not known as a breakaway artist or great descender. Menchov either for that point.

It's also a very long ITT. So whomever is fit, and mentally strong will benefit.

I'd also like to know who has ridden the course most previously and how many times? Being very familiar with it will be a benefit. I can blitz through some of my training rides and leave my friends who normally drop me, behind, that sort of thing. They're all professionals. But if someone knows this course very well, they'll make maybe a minute on it.

DiLuca will do better than expected because of the technical nature of the course. He is also on good form.

Basso will do much much better than earlier in the season.

When has Rogers ever performed well in a time trial during a stage race?

Wiggins, Millar, and Zabriskie will get slaughtered. TD will do especially bad because his bike handling is similar to Maricio Soler's.

That is how I see it.

 

[lookkg386]

Just my two cents on yesterdays stage also....

Does anyone feel that with the fact that it was basically a nuetral stage due to rider protest and also the bad news regarding Rabo's Pedro Horrillo that Cavendish celebrating the stage win was a bit "hollow" to say the least....

 

[Leopejo]

But it's not the same situation. He has more miles under him, is more focused on this one race, and the course is technical, probably the most technical TT of the season in any major race. Picture that ITT in the 2005 Tour at Saint Étienne where the Chicken kept crashing, only even more. Teams are saying it is more like a breakaway with wild descents.

Besides he wasn't at his best for TTs in those two races. For example he had been doing mostly plenty hours of climbing at altitude prior to Trentino, not specific TT training.

Savoldelli - whose opinion on descending ability has to be trusted! - said Levi sucks descending and often created gaps. Now Basso is known for this too, but at least he rode the course a few times.

I'd also like to know who has ridden the course most previously and how many times?

Basso a few times, Cunego and Armstrong once, Levi never - I only know this. From Cuneo, where I suppose they are based today, to Sestri Levante it's less than 200 km of mostly motorway (highway?), so maybe someone brave will preview it today.

 

[rhubroma]

DiLuca will do better than expected because of the technical nature of the course. He is also on good form.

Basso will do much much better than earlier in the season.

When has Rogers ever performed well in a time trial during a stage race?

Wiggins, Millar, and Zabriskie will get slaughtered. TD will do especially bad because his bike handling is similar to Maricio Soler's.

That is how I see it.

Iv'e heard Leiheimer is a mad descender, but he hasn't ridden the course before which is odd given that he has always (along with Lance before his collar bone insident) always been a GC Giry guy for Astana. Perhaps, given the technicalities, it could "slow him down" a bit, to the Italian riders' advantage (Di'Luca and Basso) but also to Menchov's and Sastre's as well.

If I had to pick a top 3 on the stage it would be: Menchov by 1 minute over Leipheimer and 1:40 over Basso.

 

[ingsve]

So it seems from what people are saying if we look at which riders benefit from this course and which riders are disadvantaged compared to a traditional flat course we get something like:

Advantage: Di Luca, Basso, Menchov (?) Sastre (?)

Disadvantage: Wiggins, Millar, Zabriskie, Leipheimer, Rogers (?)

From what I'm hearing from the swedish commentators the course will suit Lövkvist really well. He is very good on his bike and should have no problems with the technicality of the course.

What about Horner, Arroyo, Pellizotti and Simoni? Benefit or disadvantage?

 

[lookkg386]

Basso!!!!!, got a feeling in my waters!!!!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

So it seems from what people are saying if we look at which riders benefit from this course and which riders are disadvantaged compared to a traditional flat course we get something like:

Advantage: Di Luca, Basso, Menchov (?) Sastre (?)

Disadvantage: Wiggins, Millar, Zabriskie, Leipheimer, Rogers (?)

You're guesses are probably true. But this is like a matrix one can chart. In one direction you have factor "X" - how well can this cyclist ride a TT, period. An here we get Leipheimer, Menchov, Wiggins, Zabriski Rogers, on one end. And Simoni, DiLuca, Cunego, on the other, with Lovkvist and Sastre in the middle, and Basso an unknown, but we'll say the middle.

In the other direction you have factor "Y" - how well does this athlete ride a course like this? Of which your list covers fairly well.

A less important, but still valid factor "Z" would be how familiar is the rider with the course? Which has been listed, but may not be complete.

Another factor is how well they are riding, period, at this time. DiLuca looks great. Cunego does not, etc.

Judging by this, I'd have to say Menchov is probably the highest scorer on such a matrix, and a good pick to win and take the Maglia Rosa.

One thing is for certain, this is the key stage of the entire Giro. All the other mountain stages, including 16 which is now the Queen stage, won't likely factor in as much of a time difference as this stage. Climbers are going to have to be very select, and very strategic in order to get back lost time after Stage 12, simply because there arnen't enough mountains.

 

[Leopejo]

You're guesses are probably true. But this is like a matrix one can chart. In one direction you have factor "X" - how well can this cyclist ride a TT, period. An here we get Leipheimer, Menchov, Wiggins, Zabriski Rogers, on one end. And Simoni, DiLuca, Cunego, on the other, with Lovkvist and Sastre in the middle, and Basso an unknown, but we'll say the middle.

Factor X depends on several factors. Of these, ability of pacing and racing against the clock as opposed against other riders applies; instead, aerodynamic efficiency applies less, if many riders are considering a road bike instead of a TT bike.

In the other direction you have factor "Y" - how well does this athlete ride a course like this? Of which your list covers fairly well.

This factor Y, I'd divide into: 1) how well the rider can climb on not so hard slopes; 2) how well the rider can descend on such a twisty course.

One thing is for certain, this is the key stage of the entire Giro.

This stage will for sure shape the Giro and dictate the future strategies, but I am less certain that it is the key stage.