Official thread: Giro d'Italia

[kjetilraknerud]

I think Løvkvist will do really well in the time trial. He obviosly is in great shape - and seems to have taken big steps since last season. He climbs well, and as a former mountain biker he is also a great bike handler - which will be important in the technical parts of the stage. And don't forget that he is an excellent TT rider. He finished 11th in the Cholet time trial in last year's TdF (10th if you remove Shumacher), and was for example 13 seconds behind Menchov. He also finished 11th (again, 10th if you count at Shumacher) in the second TT, 34 seconds behind Menchov in 6th.

So, I think Leipheimer, Menchov, Rogers and Løvkvist will do well. Di Luca, Sastre, Pellizotti, Horner and Arroyo will lose 2-5 minutes. Basso is a question mark.

 

[ingsve]

This stage will for sure shape the Giro and dictate the future strategies, but I am less certain that it is the key stage.

I'd say that this is the best opportunity for the best riders to gain time against the 2nd best riders, or if we talk about the climbers it's the chance to minimize losses vs supposedly stronger TTers.

The reason I say this is I think given the nature of most of the climbs that are left the opportunity for the best climbers to make time on the 2nd best climbers is less than you normally see in GT mountain stages.

What we will see in the mountains is people perhaps blowing up and losing alot of time because they can't follow but we won't see that big diffrences within the group of riders that are all managing the climbs well if that makes sense.

 

[Leopejo]

What we will see in the mountains is people perhaps blowing up and losing alot of time because they can't follow but we won't see that big diffrences within the group of riders that are all managing the climbs well if that makes sense.

I do agree. It will all depend on who will be part of that group of riders managing the climbs though.

 

[jaylew]

All the talk seems to be about the TT being the next difference maker, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say a GC guy or two loses time tomorrow. I know it's not a Mtn top finish and they go up the easier side of Sestriere, but it's a really long stage with Pra Martino coming near the end. I expect somebody to really have a go there.

 

[180mmCrank]

Tommorrow feels like more of a steady ride and one for the breakaway guys ... look for the folk who have lost lots of time on the GC ... some will have had this stage in mind right from the start - knowing the top guys will likely take it easy prior to the ITT ... I am expecting maybe a 15 min gap? But what do I know!

 

[ingsve]

Tommorrow feels like more of a steady ride and one for the breakaway guys ... look for the folk who have lost lots of time on the GC ... some will have had this stage in mind right from the start - knowing the top guys will likely take it easy prior to the ITT ... I am expecting maybe a 15 min gap? But what do I know!

No, not tomorrow. The top guys won't take it that slow. I expect a couple of teams to set a fairly steady pace to bring the main bunch down to about 60 riders perhaps and then there will be attacks by guys like Soler and Cunego etc in the last climb. There will also be a big break going with a mix of decent climbers and some others and a few of them might even stay away but not with 15 minutes.

 

[Zoncolan]

No, not tomorrow. The top guys won't take it that slow. I expect a couple of teams to set a fairly steady pace to bring the main bunch down to about 60 riders perhaps and then there will be attacks by guys like Soler and Cunego etc in the last climb. There will also be a big break going with a mix of decent climbers and some others and a few of them might even stay away but not with 15 minutes.

Serpa will give it a dig again tomorrow

 

[Escarabajo]

I am looking forward for the pure climbers to make the life miserable to the time trialers before thursday. Send guys like Soler, Serpa, Cunego, Christopher Froome, Stefano Garzelli, Michele Scarponi, Jackson Rodriguez from far away from the finish line and make the other teams work hard to reel them in. That looks like a good strategy to wear down some of the stronger riders before the time trial. The other riders inside the top 20 are too close anyway. I guess at this point with the amount of mountains left they have nothing to loose.
Thanks.

 

[Zoncolan]

I am looking forward for the pure climbers to make the life miserable to the time trialers before thursday. Send guys like Soler, Serpa, Cunego, Christopher Froome, Stefano Garzelli, Michele Scarponi, Jackson Rodriguez from far away from the finish line and make the other teams work hard to reel them in. That looks like a good strategy to wear down some of the stronger riders before the time trial. The other riders inside the top 20 are too close anyway. I guess at this point with the amount of mountains left they have nothing to loose.
Thanks.

Exactly! If I was Savio or Gibo, I'd have Scarponi, Serpa and Rodriguez give the big boys hell.

 

[Zoncolan]

Curious to see how Basso vs. Rogers pans out in TT later. Given both are riding well in mountains, could take minutes out of di Luca. Don't see him taking the time back.

Basso in the TT is the big imponderable this year. Should play a big role in final podium places.

Of course, Menchov and Levi should hammer it, reliably as usual. But Basso and Rogers, and maybe Sastre, to me are the real wild cards/imponderables in TT, and for final podium.

(Also curious to see how many minutes Wiggins can take out of di Luca in the TT--though too far back now at -4:45 to make much diff.)

I don't know about Menchov. Sure, he looks like the strongest guy out there right now, with the way he chased the pack after getting caught behind a crash and the way he took the stage to San Martino di Castrozza. But, as pointed out before, this TT is technical, with some tricky descending. Menchov and Basso should be at a disatvantage there and have an advantage on the flats and uphills.
If I had to make a guess, I'd say of the GC guys, Levi will have the best time, maybe half a minute to a minute ahead of Menchov, and some 1:30 ahead of Rogers and Basso. Lovkvist 2 minutes down, Sastre and Pelizzotti 3, and Di Luca, Arroyo and Simoni 4 minutes+. Popovych will probably be told not to go flat out, to save something to help Levi in the mountains later on, as will Horner, or will he?
Lovkvist should secure the Maglia Bianca in the TT, Seeldrayers and Rodriguez should lose masses of time

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

a few of them might even stay away but not with 15 minutes.

Race radios will prevent that from happening. No one will get that far up the road unless there's a serious mistake. The stage simply isn't mountainous enough to have that happen.

I do think we will see attacks start on the the Moncenisio, and then on the Sestriere climb by riders far enough down on GC to get away. Sestriere is the Cima Coppi, and with that comes prestige and prize money. Plus, this might be the easiest Cima Coppi for the next 50 years, and some riders will never get another shot at it as the gradient is only like 6%. Despite the lengh of the climb, the descent is so long and fairly straight forward, so we're very likely to see group of 60 or so with most of the main contenders long before we hit the bottom.

The climb up Pra’ Martino isn't steep enough or high enough, and it too has a descent. The only way riders will lose time here is due to exhaustion if they are very tired, as it is a long stage.

Stage 11 has a gentle climb over the Turchino 20km from the finish, but again, a descent, so it's not for GC, and only for breakaway artists, or someone suicidal enough to wear themselves out before Stage 12's ITT.

If I had to make a guess, I'd say of the GC guys, Levi will have the best time...

I think you've got a good guess as any on who will do what. However, if we're equating some of the ITT to a long breakaway with tricky descents (as there are two on this course), you may be giving Levi too much credit. As someone else noted, Il Falco was asked and responded that Levi is not a great descender, merely average.

 

[Anonymous]

I am looking forward for the pure climbers to make the life miserable to the time trialers before thursday. Send guys like Soler, Serpa, Cunego, Christopher Froome, Stefano Garzelli, Michele Scarponi, Jackson Rodriguez from far away from the finish line and make the other teams work hard to reel them in. That looks like a good strategy to wear down some of the stronger riders before the time trial. The other riders inside the top 20 are too close anyway. I guess at this point with the amount of mountains left they have nothing to loose.
Thanks.

don't expect to see astana let levi work any harder than he has to. they won't get emotional if .. say cunego.. attacks. levi could lose 3 minutes to him tomorrow and it would make no difference in the outcome.
Bruyneel teams are normally masters of energy managment.

 

[*G*K*S*]

Team Columbia will win again. I believe that it's Possoni's turn tomorrow.

 

[idle eric]

el giro crazy but i luv it

Went to the -circus -yesterday in Milano --sightseeing today on the way to the route tomorrow -- tough roads so can wait to see some real action-- hope to see them more than once-- surely high road cant win again--

 

[Cobblestones]

Bruyneel teams are normally masters of energy managment.

Haha, right. Sometimes, when they don't feel like competing, they even make the whole peloton stop and sit up.

Anywhoo....

it's a pretty long stage tomorrow. Over 250k. If they ride it hard enough, even the final speedbump (which is 400m of climbing) might become decisive.

 

[Anonymous]

Haha, right. Sometimes, when they don't feel like competing, they even make the whole peloton stop and sit up.

we disagree on who made who do what.

 

[Anonymous]

I think you've got a good guess as any on who will do what. However, if we're equating some of the ITT to a long breakaway with tricky descents (as there are two on this course), you may be giving Levi too much credit. As someone else noted, Il Falco was asked and responded that Levi is not a great descender, merely average.[/QUOTE]

levi has said also that the technical nature of this one will negate some of what would have been an advantage for him at this distance.
i still think it will be where he wins the giro though

 

[Big_Blue_Dave]

Depending on how the next two stages go, I see it as a surprise that no-one expects Bruseghin to make up some time in the ITT stage. He is a guy that can climb fairly well, and we all know he can time trial in the Giro, having seen what he did last year.

I can see him being in the top 5 on the stage, with maybe Pinotti, Cancellara, Leipheimer and Rogers rounding it out as I think its just too hilly for Dave Z to make an impression and also too long for Wiggins.

For the stage later today, look to see Thomas Voeckler get involved in the break, and take all the mountains points, probably go with a Diquigiovanni, Silence, ISD, Xacobeo Galicia, and Fuji rider. Gain 10 minutes or so and be caught on the final climb. A group of 20 will cross in the front bunch, with maybe one or two breaking away on the downhill before the finish.

 

[karlboss]

next 2 big stages

Tomorrow's stage: None of the top 6 will try anything, too risky, but we will see a suicidal attempt from someone a little further back on the monginevro. I think the suicide mission will pay off for the stage, but that rider to lose it all again in the ITT. Really the time for that suicidal break for a GC hopeful is a little later.
Looking at the profile of the ITT it reminds me of beijing, but it is more technical. I'm tipping a tall skinny swede, one did ok in Beijing I think the profile excludes specialists. Lovkvist is in form, not yet been dropped, can handle his bike better than leipheimer or menchov (in my opinion). I think it will be enough.
Top 5...lovkvist, leipheimer, menchov, basso, rogers.
Dark horse: armstrong, can handle a bike, maybe in better form than he pretends (i doubt it) and well...he's lance.

 

[benpounder]

Seeing as we are jumping ahead to Thursday's TT, if it is raining, there could be carnage - worth a look on GoogleEarth. To say it is on secondary roads is a misnomer (i'd guess about 4m wide), and steep - 8.4km averaging 7.3%. If it is dry, and a rider is familar with the road, they could drop a 4 wheeled support vehicle.

 

[Leopejo]

Seeing as we are jumping ahead to Thursday's TT, if it is raining, there could be carnage - worth a look on GoogleEarth. To say it is on secondary roads is a misnomer (i'd guess about 4m wide), and steep - 8.4km averaging 7.3%. If it is dry, and a rider is familar with the road, they could drop a 4 wheeled support vehicle.

Most probably not a cloud in the sky.

Some risk of rain in the "Queen stage" on next Monday. Good perhaps for the race, less good for the roadside spectators coming from far away (read: me ).

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I see it as a surprise that no-one expects Bruseghin to make up some time in the ITT stage. He is a guy that can climb fairly well, and we all know he can time trial in the Giro, having seen what he did last year.

He has somewhat slipped under the radar, hasn't he.

I can see him being in the top 5 on the stage, with maybe Pinotti, Cancellara, Leipheimer and Rogers rounding it out as I think its just too hilly for Dave Z to make an impression and also too long for Wiggins.

Surprised you don't have Menchov on your list. Did you just forget, or have a reason to think he'll falter here?

 

[Mellow Velo]

Great weather forecast, right up until when Leopejo said.

I not hoping for, or expecting much from today's stage. That way I might be pleasantly surprised.
Mont Cenis is the really tough climb. They are using the secondary road, that goes two-thirds of the way up the pass. It's both steep and narrow.
However, it's of little major using, coming where it does.
Sestrieres up and over totals 80kms, so it effective should.......here's that word again.....neutralise the stage, in terms of major GC gains.
Look to someone like PVC to send their South Americans up the road.

Things will get lively on the final hump, similar to the Bergarmo stage, but with DDL being more active.

Benpounder: The roads of the Cinque Terre will not be popular in some circles!

 

[Big_Blue_Dave]

He has somewhat slipped under the radar, hasn't he.


Surprised you don't have Menchov on your list. Did you just forget, or have a reason to think he'll falter here?

I think he will be 6th or 7th, I really don't think he will be able to beat the absolute time trial specialists, nor do I see him being able to complete the descent in the manner required to get him above one or two of the leading contenders, but should outstrip this by outclimbing them for the majority.

 

[idle eric]

Da lazy da lucy di luca

So di lucy lulled the riders into an extra rest day riding round Milano like a nancy then sticks in into them today--what a laugh-- not sure about the fist victory salutes-- I remeber Floyd "Landis in sh+t" doing taht after his testoserone rides accross the boarder--weather great by the way--camping tonight.