Official thread: Giro d'Italia

[ingsve]

If you have Google Earth, go to here and click on the link labeled "View Stage 12 in Google Earth". Zoom in as close as resolution will allow and follow both downhill sections from start to finish.

Today, I wondered if Levi got caught behind slowpokes, but looking closely at the video, Levi let the gap form (he was leading Basso, Garzelli and Soler) when DiLuca took off. (Menchov, Sastre, and Arroyo were able to cling on.)

Thursday's ITT is not the typical diesel engine test track, not even close. It has a modest climb followed by a modest false flat (roads that you could us a TT bike) but the first downhill is beautiful, twisty, narrow, and steep beast - 8.4km (the kind of road I love to ride, both up and down). There is another modest uphill followed by a modest downhill... but with some nasty switchbacks here and there.

Given what I saw today, Levi will not be able to use his strength, whereas DiLuca will. That said, I think it is Menchov's to lose.

But I could be mistaken.

But the thing is that Di Luca is historically a very bad TTer compared to Levi so even if the course suits Di Luca better it's not like he suddenly is going to beat every TTer out there. It's still a TT after all. What the course will do is that he will lose less than if it had been a flat long TT. Instead of losing 6 minutes he will perhaps lose 2 minutes. But hey he's in good shape at the moment and he does have the MR so anything can happen I guess...

 

[benpounder]

But the thing is that Di Luca is historically a very bad TTer compared to Levi...

preface: I'm a bike geek, I know...

Last year's Giro stage 10, a 39.4km uphill TT. Bruseghin won it, followed by (this years riders)
4 Marco Pinotti +0.36
5 Denis Menchov +0.46
9 Levi Leipheimer +1.01
10 Gilberto Simoni +1.02
12 Giovanni Visconti +1.05
18 Franco Pellizotti +2.09
19 Danilo Di Luca +2.11

That is right, Levi beat Danilo by only one minute ten seconds on a course well suited to Levi. Granted, Leipheimer was totally unprepared for the Giro, but so was DiLuca.

 

[ingsve]

Want me to post every TT Di Luca has finished in the low 60s and 70s 5 minutes behind? If he does beat Levi then all power to him but I'm not going to bet on it.

 

[benpounder]

Want me to post every TT Di Luca has finished...

You could, but it wouldn't mean much. Levi, Denis, Ivan, and Danilo have all posted poor TT results over the years - I try to look for apples to apples comparisons, but it's difficult to find, and therefore some extrapolation is required. Di Luca has sucked in many TT's, but as someone upthread commented, he is riding like Lance used to, and befitting his nickname. This of all GT TTs fits his style, and as you point out, he has the strength of the MR.

I dont expect him to win, but it wouldnt suprise me.

 

[ingsve]

ps Is 21:30 Colorado an OK time to call my cousins in Goteburg?

No, that's 5.30 AM in Göteborg so unless your cousins likes to get up early I'd wait until 1 AM in Colorado or call before 3 PM in the afternoon.

 

[benpounder]

ingsve

I edited out that comment. in rereading, I thought it might come across as rude. Thanks for the time delta.

 

[Anonymous]

So Menchov hasn't impressed you then?
Before the Giro started, I thought Basso, Levi and Menchov were equal favorites, but the more racing I see, I feel Levi will lose time in the climbs. Stages to Monte Petrano and Vesuvius will be telling.

no no.. i am impressed by menchov.
let's put it this way, he will surprise me if he has a time trial that gains seconds on levi.
then, where does he gain time.
but i see him losing time in stage 12 and i don't see where he gets it back.
200 meter climb in the last 2k at the end of 14? can't do much there.
800 meter climg in the last ten k of 16?
1000 meter climb in last 12k.. that could get interesting but i don't think astana will be vulerable there. horner, and lance will drive the climb so fast nobody can gap. if anything, i predict levi proving he can climb gaining time there.
nothing after 17.
this is levi's time. he's now clearly team leader has Lance and horner Yaroslav Popovych, et all pulling on. he has a huge oppertunity here. and i believe he's going to step up and take, earn it.

 

[cineteq]

this is levi's time. he's now clearly team leader has Lance and horner Yaroslav Popovych, et all pulling on. he has a huge oppertunity here. and i believe he's going to step up and take, earn it.

This guy gets it, the strongest teams with the top GC guys will win.
Actually, there are only two: Astana & Liquigas.
That's why Di Luca will not win the Giro.

 

[lookkg386]

I'm starting to lean towards Menchov ahead of Levi as my favourite now, really seems strong, and I think are quite even TT ability wise.

 

[Seth Bullock]

I think it definitely comes down to the top GC contender on each (top) team but prior to that if you’ve got a strong team protecting you and therefore allowing you to save energy before the final onslaught where it’s mano-a-mano, then that definitely can’t hurt either. Just look at everyone’s favourite rider’s team during his 7 Tour victories. Contrast that with Evans at Lotto - note: ignoring the different abilities between the two riders themselves.

Aside from all that I find it extremely hard to predict and there are plenty of people on this site who would know a lot more detailed info thereby allowing a more informed opinion but from looking at the remaining stage profiles I still think Di Luca is in with a very good shot. Sure he’s not the greatest TTer but it’s not a normal TT and would suit him more than the typical course. Leipheimer and Rogers can TT but they have to take back over 1.5 minutes and then some because Di Luca (to date) is as good as or better on the explosive sharp climbs (end of Stage 14) and the more serious long climbs (Stage 16, 19). Menchov and Sastre too. Sastre isn’t the best TTer (although 08 Tour – yellow jersey effect?), but again the Stage 12 course, plus the uphill finishes of Stage 16 and 19, plus how well he typically goes in the final week of a GT. Menchov is looking very good – can TT and climb. And then there’s Basso – hasn’t done too much (similar to Sastre last Tour) and so may be waiting to pounce…

It’s going to be extremely interesting to see how Armstrong goes in the TT and the final week. He appears to be getting stronger and with his known TTing ability he may break into the top 10 before the end….

It’s a long way to go but my (tentative) prediction to date for final GC:
1. Menchov
2. DiLuca
3. Leipheimer
4. Basso
5. Sastre
6. Rogers
…..
….

 

[BroDeal]

This guy gets it, the strongest teams with the top GC guys will win.
Actually, there are only two: Astana & Liquigas.
That's why Di Luca will not win the Giro.

Teams will have little to do with who wins this Giro. The strong teams have accomplished nothing. LPR did great during the TTT, and Liquigas did not.

Astana is more interested in showcasing Armstrong than helping Leipheimer. If Armstrong was truly interested in aiding Levi then he would be dropping way off the pace to conserve energy. He and Bruyneel used to get very angry when teammates who were supposed to support Armstrong did what Armstrong is doing this Giro, angry enough to pour their blood down the toilet.

Di Luca will likely lose because there are too many ITT kilometers and not enough klicks climbing. He has raging form in the mountains. On a usual Giro course, he would win. On this crap course, he is at a big disadvantage.

Menchov looks like the man who will win.

 

[cineteq]

Teams will have little to do with who wins this Giro. The strong teams have accomplished nothing. LPR did great during the TTT, and Liquigas did not.

Sure, ask Sastre if he would've have won last year's TdF without Saxo and the Schleck boys.

LA will support Levi eventually, he's getting his form.
Mechov has no team, he's doomed.

 

[Leopejo]

OK, Course details are:
2.8km @ +0.21%
15.8km@ +3.82%
7.5km @ +0.05%
8.4km @ -7.29%
2.5km @ +1.32%
7.5km @ +6.80%
10.2km @ -0.76%
4.5km @ -7.24%
1.4km @ +5.71%

Two false flats followed by two twisty steep downhills...

See also:

map
profile
First climb
Second climb
They are more than false flats, but nothing too steep.

 

[Bumeington]

Teams will have little to do with who wins this Giro. The strong teams have accomplished nothing. LPR did great during the TTT, and Liquigas did not.

Astana is more interested in showcasing Armstrong than helping Leipheimer. If Armstrong was truly interested in aiding Levi then he would be dropping way off the pace to conserve energy. He and Bruyneel used to get very angry when teammates who were supposed to support Armstrong did what Armstrong is doing this Giro, angry enough to pour their blood down the toilet.

Di Luca will likely lose because there are too many ITT kilometers and not enough klicks climbing. He has raging form in the mountains. On a usual Giro course, he would win. On this crap course, he is at a big disadvantage.

Menchov looks like the man who will win.

I think one of the main marks teams have left already on the GC is the team timetrial, whilst Sastre has finished with the first group in all the big stages he is still 6th when Rogers who has been dropped a couple of times is 3rd.

Do you see Horner and Popo dropping miles off the pace to conserve energy, not really. Surely the best domestiques should be with the leaders until the end, like Horner in the first week. Maybe Lance's ego is bigger than his talent at 37, true, but surely you can see he is just trying to ride into form so that he can be Levi's no.1 domestique by the third week.

I think this Giro is quite well suited to Di Luca, ok the TT does him no favours, but all the mountain stages now are definitely killer territory, whilst the kind of uber hard parcours normally in the giro are not up his street. Example: If the original stage 10 where not changed, Di Luca would not be in pink right now.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Not sure how many Giros some of guys have been able to see, but I think you are reading it wrong.
The final week is usually all about individuals going mano-a-mano.
Contador rode and won it last year, riding mostly alone in the high mountains.

I get the impression some are banking on the old Astana train closing the race down.
It just won't happen on some stages, as the favourites won't just meekly sit behind it, waiting for the final slope.

Simoni ripped the Maglia Rosa from Steffano Garzelli, in 2003, on the exact same Faenza course, we have on stage 15. That finishes with 25kms downhill/flat.
These stages are all about a succession of shorter, but steeper climbs, than you see in the Alps or Dolomites.
Each one is a launch pad for attacks.

Third week is all about the rider who can look after himself the best; guage his efforts and attack when the moment is right.

Take Bumeington's final paragraph on board.

 

[lookkg386]

Sure, ask Sastre if he would've have won last year's TdF without Saxo and the Schleck boys.

LA will support Levi eventually, he's getting his form.
Mechov has no team, he's doomed.

Mind you this years Giro may well be the time when you can get away with a weaker team, in the last week if he's smart enough he'll be in the selective groups when it matters.

 

[Delicato]

Many people here think that Basso would lose some time to pure TT-ers (Leipheimer, for example) and their main argument is that Basso had some poor results in TTs this year- I have to remind you that he ALWAYS has average results in time trials which he is not interested in(Giro del Trentino, T-A)-yet, in Giro and Tour he always is in Top-5 (see Giro-2005, 2006, Tour-2005). So basically the fact that he lost some time to fellow contenders doesn't mean that he is in bad form to win Cinque Terra stage.

 

[Zoncolan]

This guy gets it, the strongest teams with the top GC guys will win.
Actually, there are only two: Astana & Liquigas.
That's why Di Luca will not win the Giro.

Levi will blow up on stage 16 (Monte Petrano), he'll lose over a minute to Di Luca, Sastre, Basso and Menchov. His form is dropping, whereas Di Luca and Menchov are super strong, and Sastre is coming into top form with perfect timing.
I never gave Di Luca a shot at the podium before the Giro started, but the more of his riding I see, and Levi's, the more I think Danilo has a chance of winning and Levi's chance is rapidly disappearing. You guys speak about LPR not being strong enough to support Di Luca, but actually the domestique I've been impressed with the most is Bosisio.

For me, it's too early to say with certainty who'll take the overall. I think I have a pretty good idea who won't. Of the top seven guys on GC still in contention, I don't think Rogers and Pellizotti have a chance.

I'm not sure about Menchov and Basso, they might fade in the third week.

TT results:
LL, Menchov and Rogers all within 30 seconds. Basso a further 30 secs down, Pellizotti and Sastre another 45 down on Basso, and another 30-45 down to Di Luca. This translates into Di Luca being a minute to a minute and a half behind Menchov and LL after the TT.

The final GC will be very close. I think we could have 5 guys within 2-3 minutes.

 

[ingsve]

Many people here think that Basso would lose some time to pure TT-ers (Leipheimer, for example) and their main argument is that Basso had some poor results in TTs this year- I have to remind you that he ALWAYS has average results in time trials which he is not interested in(Giro del Trentino, T-A)-yet, in Giro and Tour he always is in Top-5 (see Giro-2005, 2006, Tour-2005). So basically the fact that he lost some time to fellow contenders doesn't mean that he is in bad form to win Cinque Terra stage.

Bad argument since he's been suspended for doping it's more likely that he was infact cheating during the GTs rather than during Trentino and T-A. Even Pantani finished 3rd in a GT TT in 98 and I think we all know how he did that.

My opinion is that once a rider comes back from suspension everything I think I know about his capasities are in the air. He will have to prove himself all over again for me to make a qualified judgement about his abilities.

 

[lookkg386]

Bad argument since he's been suspended for doping it's more likely that he was infact cheating during the GTs rather than during Trentino and T-A. Even Pantani finished 3rd in a GT TT in 98 and I think we all know how he did that.

My opinion is that once a rider comes back from suspension everything I think I know about his capasities are in the air. He will have to prove himself all over again for me to make a qualified judgement about his abilities.

Ingsve you're right there, not sure we can judge he's past form now. Similar to how David Millar really had to prove to the cycling world (and maybe himself) exactly how good he is.

 

[Delicato]

Bad argument since he's been suspended for doping it's more likely that he was infact cheating during the GTs rather than during Trentino and T-A. Even Pantani finished 3rd in a GT TT in 98 and I think we all know how he did that.

My opinion is that once a rider comes back from suspension everything I think I know about his capasities are in the air. He will have to prove himself all over again for me to make a qualified judgement about his abilities.

Was he suspended for doping? I thought he intended to dope. Yup, I am not naive, but still, strictly speaking( if I remember correctly), nobody proved that he was doping during that crazy Giro in 2006. Anyway, I am not a fan of him(nor a hater), so it doesn't matter whether he was doping or not.

His training results (posted on Mapei website) have been quite impressive, at least.

After your comment on Pantani, I remembered last ITT of 2005 Vuelta, where Heras was beaten by R.Plaza by 0.0002 sec or so...and the speed was just incredibly fast-we all know what happened in the following months.

What surprises me the most (considering that we have Giro now)is the fact that Leipheimer transformed into a kind of rider who is in form all season long(just like Evans) and is a dominant TTer-given the fact that his perfomances in Rabobank/Gerolsteiner were just shi...y. Secret Bruyneel Potion?

 

[Leopejo]

Ingsve you're right there, not sure we can judge he's past form now.

Not sure we can judge anyone on such an unusual TT based on their past TT performances.

 

[Leopejo]

Simoni ripped the Maglia Rosa from Steffano Garzelli, in 2003, on the exact same Faenza course, we have on stage 15. That finishes with 25kms downhill/flat.

Exact same in the last 95 km, but significantly shorter. The descent from the top of Trebbio is quite tricky. Two months ago, at Settimana Internazionale Coppi & Bartali, Cunego and Serpa attacked in the last 50 meters before the KOM, IIRC, and were able to make a gap that they kept till the end.

These stages are all about a succession of shorter, but steeper climbs, than you see in the Alps or Dolomites.
Each one is a launch pad for attacks.

Besides, the road are narrow and twisty. If you get a 20 seconds advantage they won't see you anymore. And very little flat, just an endless succession of uphill and downhill.

Third week is all about the rider who can look after himself the best; guage his efforts and attack when the moment is right.

Amen.

 

[BroDeal]

Many people here think that Basso would lose some time to pure TT-ers (Leipheimer, for example) and their main argument is that Basso had some poor results in TTs this year- I have to remind you that he ALWAYS has average results in time trials which he is not interested in(Giro del Trentino, T-A)-yet, in Giro and Tour he always is in Top-5 (see Giro-2005, 2006, Tour-2005). So basically the fact that he lost some time to fellow contenders doesn't mean that he is in bad form to win Cinque Terra stage.

The thing about Basso's ITT this year that everyone is looking at to say that he is shaky is that in the same race he was super strong in the mountains. His power to weight ratio must have been good. I don't see how his drag could have increased over the last two years, so he should still be able to do a good time trial. I have no idea how the long course will suit him, but Leipheimer is hardly looking like a demon descender these days.

 

[Delicato]

The thing about Basso's ITT this year that everyone is looking at to say that he is shaky is that in the same race he was super strong in the mountains. His power to weight ratio must have been good. I don't see how his drag could have increased over the last two years, so he should still be able to do a good time trial. I have no idea how the long course will suit him, but Leipheimer is hardly looking like a demon descender these days.

I read somewhere that it was something like 6,3 w/kg ratio for him (Basso) on Alpe di Siusi.

EDIT: Dr.Ferrari states that the value was 6,13. Not bad, to say the least

Horner DNS today. Anyone here thinks that certain TDF winner can help Levi?