Official thread: Giro d'Italia

[BroDeal]

let's all remember he said this.. grin.

No, let's remember this:

no no.. i am impressed by menchov.
let's put it this way, he will surprise me if he has a time trial that gains seconds on levi.
then, where does he gain time.
but i see him losing time in stage 12 and i don't see where he gets it back.
200 meter climb in the last 2k at the end of 14? can't do much there.
800 meter climg in the last ten k of 16?
1000 meter climb in last 12k.. that could get interesting but i don't think astana will be vulerable there. horner, and lance will drive the climb so fast nobody can gap. if anything, i predict levi proving he can climb gaining time there.
nothing after 17

And this:

Di Luca will likely lose because there are too many ITT kilometers and not enough klicks climbing. He has raging form in the mountains. On a usual Giro course, he would win. On this crap course, he is at a big disadvantage.

Menchov looks like the man who will win.

Then lets all have a big grin about how astute you are about Menchov's chances while everyone else with a clue clearly saw that Menchov was the most likely winner of this Giro. You were wrong about Menchov and the time trial. You will also be wrong about Menchov and the coming mountains. The guy is very very strong.

And the two riders with the best shot at winning, Menchov and Di Luca, both are not on very strong teams. Fancy that. Who would have thought that the Giro is not the Tour?

 

[RONHUSA]

New Giro Jersey

To hell with the young rider classification - why don't they have an Old rider classification.
Would it be 35 and older or just over 35?

 

[ingsve]

To hell with the young rider classification - why don't they have an Old rider classification.
Would it be 35 and older or just over 35?

It's going to be interesting to see how the results in the 3 GCs look in like 2-3 years when the 1971-1973 crowd is really gone. They have been active for so long now that it's going to be very strange when they're gone...

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Big congrats to Menchov for a great win today. I thought he had a good chance, and he made me look smarter than I am. He's in the drivers seat now, and it's going to be interesting to see how he responds to the inevitable attacks that follow in the days to come.

 

[Mellow Velo]

and come they will.

Menchov and Sastre are far better equiped for whats to come, than Leipheimer. They are used to riding unsupported.
Liquigas's double prongued attack and the "Killers" insatiable appetite, will make mincemeat of any trains thinking of being run.

Astana have made a tactical error in wasting Janic Brajkovic on sheperding Lance around the Dolomites.
Excellent ITT today.
He could have been used as a GC threat, whereas now, the only option is to become the Horner one from last week.

 

[idle eric]

-- Great to see Menchov winning--Pedro deserves it--501 not far of the pace and Lucy still up there to my surprise-- Lancalot doing well all things considered--even if he has thrown the rattle out of the cage again-- strange bike choice for Carlos --looked out of sorts on the downhills--best thing is the crowd-- great support and all the abuse from Sunday in Milano has been forgotten--the Giro now has a moral leader-- long may it continue--

 

[Anonymous]

No, let's remember this:



And this:



Then lets all have a big grin about how astute you are about Menchov's chances while everyone else with a clue clearly saw that Menchov was the most likely winner of this Giro. You were wrong about Menchov and the time trial. You will also be wrong about Menchov and the coming mountains. The guy is very very strong.

And the two riders with the best shot at winning, Menchov and Di Luca, both are not on very strong teams. Fancy that. Who would have thought that the Giro is not the Tour?

clearly you were right and i was wrong about menchov and di luca today although i still think my guy levi did pretty damned good.
now we'll see who's right abou the importance of team. i'm concerned about astana's loss of chris horner but still i think it's a very deep team and could of great value to levi where he's going to need them.

 

[jaylew]

Menchov and Sastre are far better equiped for whats to come, than Leipheimer. They are used to riding unsupported.
Liquigas's double prongued attack and the "Killers" insatiable appetite, will make mincemeat of any trains thinking of being run.

This will be interesting. I also definitely see Sastre making his move somewhere. He's getting better and really wants to be on the podium, though I'm not sure there are enough climbing Ks out there for him. Between him, Danilo, and the Liquis, I don't know if Levi will get the chance to attack even if he is so inclined. I guess the question is if he or Menchov cracks under the attacks from those 4.

Menchov is certainly in the driver's seat. I see Levi winning the final TT but not by much as it's only 14k.

I actually think the lessened climbing of this years Giro is to DD's advantage. I don't think he performs as well on the really long, hard climbs and these shorter climbs will allow him to use his explosiveness. With Cunego not seeming to have any punch there are a couple of stages that have "Di Luca 20 sec bonus" written all over them, starting with stage 14. He's absolutely still in with a chance even with one more TT.

 

[180mmCrank]

I still think that it's all to play for - anyone can have a bad day - and even though there are not the kind of mountains we will see in the TdF there is IMO enough difficulty to give folk a chance to put time into anyone not on form.

It will be interesting to see how much Di Luca still has to give - he has fired a lot of bullets in the first few days.

Basso needs to play some cards if he is going to feature (and Pellozotti has a minute on GC - some interesting conversations in the team bus me thinks!).

Sastre seems to be just getting going and there is lots for him to have a go at.

Can Leipheimer fire up his chug chug engine and put some time into Menchov to make a race of it

It's just getting good

 

[Leopejo]

And the two riders with the best shot at winning, Menchov and Di Luca, both are not on very strong teams. Fancy that.

LPR looks quite strong to me.

 

[Mellow Velo]

tell me what you mean.

OK; This is what I think will happen on the Central Italy stages.

Stage 14: LPR for Di Luca and Aqua e Sapone for Garzelli will want to control the breakaway, as both will fancy the finish.
Either way, DDL will get away from the big diesels, for a few extra seconds.
5"-35" depending on breakaways.

Stage 15: Phoney war. A few test the legs attacks, but a breakaway group to go away and stay away.
Have a feeling Gibo Simoni and or his team will try something here. Memories of 2003 and all that.

Stage 16: Basically, this is where Menchov is going to struggle, but it could happen on either of the previous stages, too.
Who does he mark? For my money, it can be no more than two riders; DDL and Levi.
He can't possibly mark Pellizotti, Basso and Sastre, as well.

I look to both Liquigas and Astana to attack and this is where you go wrong.
No way will they wait for Monte Petrano.
All hell will break loose on the Monte Catria, or even as early as Monte Nerone.
There's even a steep ramp in between the two.

Assuming they wait until Catria. That gives them 40kms to race: 21.5kms at an average of 8%, but with ramps of +10%. Plus 23kms of decent.

Basso will go early, I'm almost certain. DDL will sit and wait, playing Menchov at his own game. Sastre might follow.
I only hope Astana attack, not chase down other attacks.

If they do get pulled back, Pellizotti will attack.
DDL will certainly benefit from all of this, as will one of the Liquigas riders and Sastre.

There will be sizeable, race winning time gaps.

Leipheimer's fate is not really in his own hands. They will miss Horner and have wasted a valuable asset in Brajkovic.
He should be patient. Something he is good at. Yet, he must pick his moment.

 

[Delicato]

It is interesting that Basso, for example, lost considerable time to Menchov on climbs, not descents, which surprised me. Anyway, the scenario in which Basso attacks on penultimate climb, let alone the climb berofe it, seems pretty unreal and undoable to me. More likely it can be Pellizotti. Leipheimer can pull Heras (remember four years ago Heras took 6-7 mins on Menchov)-it can be done, if Menchov is distanced on Monte Catria, Astana will do everything to increase the gap. However, Russian looks so strong that I don't think anyone can prevent him from reaching third GT victory.

 

[Leopejo]

(removed by myself)

 

[ingsve]

Anyone think that Menchov will attack with the yellow jersey on one of teh uphill finishes? Everyone seems to be talking about how attacked he will be etc but he has been looking pretty strong himself as well...

 

[Leopejo]

Anyone think that Menchov will attack with the yellow jersey on one of teh uphill finishes? Everyone seems to be talking about how attacked he will be etc but he has been looking pretty strong himself as well...

I don't know but I misread it as "... on one of the ten uphill finishes" and started dreaming...

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Anyone think that Menchov will attack with the yellow jersey on one of teh uphill finishes? Everyone seems to be talking about how attacked he will be etc but he has been looking pretty strong himself as well...

And I mis-read it as saying the yellow jersey on his back.

Tend to agree with MelloVelo's thoughts. Menchov is not going to have any friends, and it's going to be tough to see who he can cover. Just unsure exactly where Levi will gain time on Menchov and DDL enough to win. But he tends to be strong on final weeks of GT's, where Menchov may not be - though he seems to be doing just fine and very strong right now.

I also agree the Simoni and possibly Garzelli will go on 15. The group may let Simoni go, considering his age and history. Garzelli will definitely go early on 16 to pick up the KOM points and get some glory as he's out of the GC contention.

Basso will attack hard and fast on Catrio and Petrano, with nothing to lose. Considering his ability to set a very fast pace, it's going to be interesting to see who tries to follow and suffers, or maybe gets lucky. I also think Basso is going to try to ride everyone off his wheel on Vesuvious and Blockhaus, if he's got anything left. He's back on GC a little, so riders are going to have to pick when to keep up, but he remains very dangerous.

Believe the big time Menchov lost to Heras at the Vuelta was on Angliru, which makes sense considering their styles, and there is nothing close to Angliru here.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Menchov on the Angliru? No. Don't think, for all his appearances at the Spanish GT, he's ever ridden the beast.
Here's where he lost big time to Heras:-
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005//vuelta05/?id=results/vuelta0515
On this....

 

[tiggertoo]

I've finally come to the conclusion that the way cycle races appoint the winner of a stage is a load of crap.

The team mates of Cavendish do the work of sheltering him, keeping him fresh, pulling him along, then at the right moment separate and allow him to cross the line to win the race. He gets all the glory, stands on the podium, goes down in the record books as a Giro stage winner yet the team did all the work and all they get are the residuals.

This is akin to an office team preparing a project and then handing it over to a manager to present the results to the board and accepting the accolades as if he was the sole hero. This would not be acceptable in a business environment, and should not be in the cycling world.

 

[tiggertoo]

I meant to add that since road cycle races rely on teams to bring a 'winner' home, stage wins should be awarded to teams and not individual riders.

 

[Kazistuta]

Well, that's bike racing for you.

One winner, but glory for the whole team (just not at the podium). I guess Columbia wouldn't have had the chance to win today, if it wasn't for Cavendish, so regardless all the unselfish gregario work, it IS well deserved that Cav gets the glory.

And comparing cycling with office work is just a tad misleading, sorry.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Here's where he lost big time to Heras:-

Thanks Mallow. Didn't have enough time to fact check. Real shame Heras ended up on Liberty and crash landed. What a beautiful climber to watch.

 

[Escarabajo]

Time to pick Stage 14

Ok. Time to pick. Mellow Velo already picked Di Luca for the win. Here is what I have for tomorrow:

1st climb: At Km 40.4, 12.6 kms @ 5.4% gradient
2nd Climb: At Km 77, 14.7 kms @ 3.9% gradient
3rd Climb: At Km 113, 10.6 kms @ 4.0% gradient
4th Climb: At Km 149, 6 kms @ 3.9% gradient
Last Climb: At End of Stage (172km), 2.1 kms @ 9.8% gradient

I say the winner come from a break away: Serpa, Jackson Rodriguez, Popovych, Cunego, Froome, Cioni, Voight, others??.

The rest are too close or still represent some risk in the GC standings.

Thanks.

 

[Captain Chaos]

I'll go out on a limb and say DZ will take it. He's been saving it for a stage win just like this!

My back up selection would be that Armstrong, The Killer, Simoni and "Cha Cha Cunego" attack on the uphill finish but Hagen takes them to woodshed for his second stage win.

Levi comes in on Menchov's wheel.

Michael Barry and Ben King come in with the gruppetto and Garmin gains no time in the Team Classification.

Serpa would be cool to win as he is on my fantasy cycling team but I think he's saving it for Blockhaus along with Sastre.

 

[jaylew]

Ok. Time to pick. Mellow Velo already picked Di Luca for the win.

As did I:

there are a couple of stages that have "Di Luca 20 sec bonus" written all over them, starting with stage 14

Di Luca all the way. I think LPR will try to keep any break in check to get the win for Danilo.

 

[Leopejo]

Last Climb: At End of Stage (172km), 2.1 kms @ 9.8% gradient

Not the whole story. At the beginning it has some 14-15 % sections. Then it has an easier section, quickly followed by a wall with up to 20 %, while the final is a bit easier. This according to Davide Cassani. Salite.ch has a profile too.

Giro dell'Emilia features that climb a few times, with the finish at the top like tomorrow. Last year it was won by no less than Danilo Di Luca. Very few races have such an impressive winners list.

I say the winner come from a break away: Serpa, Jackson Rodriguez, Popovych, Cunego, Froome, Cioni, Voight, others??.

The rest are too close or still represent some risk in the GC standings

In theory LPR will keep the race closed for those bonuses everybody has been mentioning. But theory and practice don't have much in common