Official thread: Giro d'Italia

[Leopejo]

Also, the riders are very tired from the TT and today was raced, especially in the peloton, at a crazy pace. I didn't notice any wind blowing from West (which would have been a tailwind for them). I guess they won't have fully recovered come tomorrow, and there will be two very hard stages after tomorrow. Will someone blow up?

 

[Captain Chaos]

But theory and practice don't have much in common

That blows my 3rd option for Riis planning some master stroke by having Jason McCartney mark all the GC contenders for a ride away finish for JJ "The Argentinian Arrow" Haedo.

(keep it coming, I love talking to myself.)

 

[Escarabajo]

As did I:



Di Luca all the way. I think LPR will try to keep any break in check to get the win for Danilo.

Agreed. If the race is kept in check then nobody (Other than Valverde and the old Cunego) has the same explosiveness in a mountain sprint. Somehow I feel it wil be very hard to keep the race in check. Too many loose cannons.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I think there's going to be a break that might stay away, but it won't include Popo, as he'll be helping Levi/Lance. And I don't think it will contain Simoni either, as he's likely looking at Stage 15. Garzelli might, maybe get this one, if he chooses to get in a break, as the finish suits him. Lance can't accellerate fast enough to win 14. And if he does try to get away, that would throw out all his talk about supporting Levi, unless he gets a really large break on the road of over 7 minutes, which won't happen.

The key though is out of the GC men, who can rise here, and the finish does indeed have DDL's name written on it. Curious to see how Menchov and Levi respond. Last half-hour should be real fun to watch.

The other thing is we have three difficult stages here where GC riders can make time, or lose it, with the hardest stage being the last of the three. Riders need to be looking at all three, and an opportunist may attack on 14, or even 15, instead of just saving everything for the last 5km on each stage, and the last 40km on 16.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Maybe the next stage is something for riders like Pozzato, Gilbert? Or an other sprint victory for Di Luca?

 

[ingsve]

I'd say it depends on how anxious Di Luca is at getting those bonus seconds. One thing is for sure. If there is a break that isn't dangerous for Menchov you won't see them keeping the time diffrence down.

I think though that this stage is too juicy for certain riders that unless a really specific break happens there are teams that will want to make this a fast race to set it up for a stage win. That's what happens when so few teams dominate all the stages so far.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Cunego will want another try.
So, I see LPR getting support from Lampre and Aqua, maybe Liquigas, too.
I don't see Garzelli going in the break, but waiting for the final climb.

Had he still been riding, I would have been picking Joachim Rodriguez.

 

[Captain Chaos]

I'm interested in some opinions on who of these 4 is most likely to break into the podium after Monday's Monte Petrano finish followed by Wednesday's Blockhaus climb.

4 Franco Pellizotti (Ita) Liquigas 2.00
5 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 2.52
6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas 3.03
7 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Columbia - Highroad 3.05

....and is Simoni out of it at 5 minutes down?

 

[Cobblestones]

I've finally come to the conclusion that the way cycle races appoint the winner of a stage is a load of crap.

The team mates of Cavendish do the work of sheltering him, keeping him fresh, pulling him along, then at the right moment separate and allow him to cross the line to win the race. He gets all the glory, stands on the podium, goes down in the record books as a Giro stage winner yet the team did all the work and all they get are the residuals.

This is akin to an office team preparing a project and then handing it over to a manager to present the results to the board and accepting the accolades as if he was the sole hero. This would not be acceptable in a business environment, and should not be in the cycling world.

I assume you're new to cycling and this is a serious question. You might want to check out one-day races, the classics, the world. Tactics are much different than in stage races.

 

[Anonymous]

teams

Teams will have little to do with who wins this Giro.

hmmm.. today, on a course perfect for di luca to win, his team let a break get away and take the time bonus.
time bonus on a stage like this should have been like free money to him.

as velo news put it;
"Instead of battling for a vital 20-second time bonus that might have come with a stage victory, LPR botched the chase"

 

[Leopejo]

Teams will have little to do with who wins this Giro. The strong teams have accomplished nothing. LPR did great during the TTT, and Liquigas did not.

hmmm.. today, on a course perfect for di luca to win, his team let a break get away and take the time bonus.
time bonus on a stage like this should have been like free money to him.

as velo news put it;
"Instead of battling for a vital 20-second time bonus that might have come with a stage victory, LPR botched the chase"

14 in the break, 8 chasing, not easy.

 

[rhubroma]

14 in the break, 8 chasing, not easy.

Indeed and none of DiLuca's rivals wanted to help him bring back the break, only to have him win the stage and take the bonus time.

 

[BroDeal]

hmmm.. today, on a course perfect for di luca to win, his team let a break get away and take the time bonus.
time bonus on a stage like this should have been like free money to him.

as velo news put it;
"Instead of battling for a vital 20-second time bonus that might have come with a stage victory, LPR botched the chase"

How are the super strong teams Liquigas and Astana doing for you, smartguy? Still waiting for Menchov to crumble because his team is crap?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Once those guys were away no team other than LPR had any incentive to chase, and with a group that big, that far out, there was no way they were going to waste the energy doing so, especially with two tough stages coming up.

I'm assuming everyone watched this morning? Interesting to see both Levi and Basso dropped at both accelerations by DiLuca and Garzelli, but Menchov and Sastre were stuck to them like glue. The shortness of the climb of course had the most to do with it, but what do you think that may say about Stage 16? Or Blockhaus or Vesuvius? Is this going to be an issue where DDL attacks until he's spent, and if Menchov or Sastre can hang, they may outlast him? Or is Basso going to try to red line everyone up Petrano and the other big climbs and see who can follow? I guess we'll find out soon...

One thing I've noticed is that Sastre looks quietly strong, very strong. He's so easy to overlook, even after winning the Tour, we seem to forget about him or dismiss him. And yet, look at him now. He's in great position, and riding a very smart race.

 

[tiggertoo]

I assume you're new to cycling and this is a serious question. You might want to check out one-day races, the classics, the world. Tactics are much different than in stage races.

On the contrary, I'm not new to cycling at all, and I am talking about the Giro (and other stage races) this is the Giro thread after all, isn't it?

 

[tiggertoo]

Well, that's bike racing for you.

One winner, but glory for the whole team (just not at the podium). I guess Columbia wouldn't have had the chance to win today, if it wasn't for Cavendish, so regardless all the unselfish gregario work, it IS well deserved that Cav gets the glory.

And comparing cycling with office work is just a tad misleading, sorry.

Maybe, but a track relay race stands as a comparison, where the entire team stands on the podium, not just the fellow running the last leg.

 

[BroDeal]

I'm assuming everyone watched this morning? Interesting to see both Levi and Basso dropped at both accelerations by DiLuca and Garzelli, but Menchov and Sastre were stuck to them like glue. The shortness of the climb of course had the most to do with it, but what do you think that may say about Stage 16? Or Blockhaus or Vesuvius? Is this going to be an issue where DDL attacks until he's spent, and if Menchov or Sastre can hang, they may outlast him? Or is Basso going to try to red line everyone up Petrano and the other big climbs and see who can follow? I guess we'll find out soon...

On either BLockhaus or Vesuvio I think Menchov will kill everyone and prove that he is the strongest in the race. He is super strong in the mountains. DDL might hang on to him but Leipheimer and Basso will get dropped. Pellizotti drops some time also; a longer steadier climb won't suit him as well as a rider like Menchov.

 

[BroDeal]

Maybe, but a track relay race stands as a comparison, where the entire team stands on the podium, not just the fellow running the last leg.

I think that subject is worthy of its own thread. It is a strange sport where the team does not get the credit when they are often an integral part of the victory.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Since the forum seems to be breeding an excessive amount of utterly pointless threads at the moment, (Seems lance isn't the only ego on display around here) I'll post this juicy bit of news, here, where it stands some chance of being seen and read.

There is an story in L'Equipe today that should offer a bit more fuel for the speculations. Apparently the Astana team riding in the Tour of Catalonia claims it has always been paid and there have been no irregularities. They also did not change maillots in the style of the Italian team.

"The entire staff of the team in Spain (mechanics and assistants) have made it clear that they have never had the smallest omission ("le moindre oubli", I am not sure how exactly to translate that) on the part of the sponsor since the beginning of the season".

So, who to believe?

 

[Anonymous]

How are the super strong teams Liquigas and Astana doing for you, smartguy? Still waiting for Menchov to crumble because his team is crap?

smart guy? again with the smug instults?

how's this... astana did just exactly what it was supposed to do today. keep levi in contact with the leaders. only a moron like you would attack on a stage that was tailor made for di luca... you, being the brilliant tactical master you are, probably think it's a major victory that di luca gained 3 seconds on him.
i've never said i didn't respect menchov or think he's not the major threat to levi, but as i've seen, you like to put words in people mouth that aren't there, so i shouldn't be suprised.

 

[Captain Chaos]

Since the forum seems to be breeding an excessive amount of utterly pointless threads at the moment, (Seems lance isn't the only ego on display around here) I'll post this juicy bit of news, here, where it stands some chance of being seen and read.

Thanks for the Astana info Mellow. In reference to this statement I'm curious when you where anointed as the the judge to what is pointless and what isn't. It always cracks me up when public forums are the ones that wind up being controlled by up tight grandiose Know it all and the the forums that where set by individuals are the ones that are more open to a variety of discussions like mine.

Once Le Tour starts you should go over to VERSUS! I think you'd like there!

 

[Parrot23]

Interesting to see both Levi and Basso dropped at both accelerations by DiLuca and Garzelli, but Menchov and Sastre were stuck to them like glue.

Yes, Sastre is looking good. This guy never ceases to surprise. Hadn't noticed he wasn't dropped. Normally no diff. than Levi or Basso on short climbs, I'd think. Significant.

Good pointer for the days to come, and for the TDF. And he's motivated for the latter vs. Saxo, whatever. Got some fire in his blood, something to prove, and just under the radar screen. Good place to be.

One obvious addition about Gerrans' win today, from the Cyclingnews report, but shows Sastre must be feeling good:

"Actually, it was team orders for him and his teammates. "The [team's] tactic was for Phil Deignan and I to ride in a breakaway in case Carlos [Sastre] came across and needed us in front [in the closing kilometres]," said Gerrans.

 

[BroDeal]

There is an story in L'Equipe today that should offer a bit more fuel for the speculations. Apparently the Astana team riding in the Tour of Catalonia claims it has always been paid and there have been no irregularities. They also did not change maillots in the style of the Italian team.

"The entire staff of the team in Spain (mechanics and assistants) have made it clear that they have never had the smallest omission ("le moindre oubli", I am not sure how exactly to translate that) on the part of the sponsor since the beginning of the season".

So, who to believe?

Is the Contador faction getting paid and the Hogstrong faction getting shorted? You would think that all payments to riders would flow through team management, so something is strange here.

 

[180mmCrank]

On either BLockhaus or Vesuvio I think Menchov will kill everyone and prove that he is the strongest in the race. He is super strong in the mountains. DDL might hang on to him but Leipheimer and Basso will get dropped. Pellizotti drops some time also; a longer steadier climb won't suit him as well as a rider like Menchov.

I watched the last couple of klicks again today - and it was the accelerations of DDL and Pellizotti that put LL and Basso in trouble. I am not so sure that on longer climbs that is going to be as effective or as much of a factor.

Agree with comments above that Sastre and Menchov look strong - but the others were not in any real trouble - they all got back on after the first acceleration and were only dropped when Pellizotti really dropped the hammer again.

Menchov is going to have his hands full when the likes of LL, Pellizotti, Basso, Sastre all start having a go as the road tips up. All of them have to win it on the longer slopes and I think all of them will try.

 

[Escarabajo]

Prediction for Stage 15

I guess I was not that far off in my precidtion yesterday. At least the break away stayed clear. This is what we have for tomorrow:

1st climb at 52.1 km, 8 km length @ 5.41% gradient
2nd climb at 72.1 km, 6 km length @ 6.23% gradient
3rd climb at 100.2 km, 6.2 km length @ 3.74% gradient
4th climb at 107.9 km, 3 km length @ 8.56% gradient
5th climb at 125.8 km, 9.5 km length @ 4% gradient
6th climb at 135.1 km, 6 km length @ 6.7% gradient
Finish at 161 km.

Listen, this is plain a simple: Break Away for tomorrow. This time I see Simoni and Cunego attacking. There is no way that these two guys will wait to the harder cimbs where they Know at this point they don't stand a chance against Menchov and company. Yes, times have changed. I don't like it but it is the reality. Whether they chase them or not I am not sure. If it is not them, it has to be somebody from the top twenty. They know that the best chance to scare Menchov is to make his team work. I forgot, he does not have a good team. There it is.
Cheers.

Thanks Mellow Velo for the Astana news. I was already wondering about why so many threads.