Official thread: Giro d'Italia

[VeloBabe]

Does anyone think that Armstrong will attack? And if he did... being a long way down in the GC, would they let him go?

I have a feeling he might have just been sitting back waiting for tomorrow.

Babe

 

[lookkg386]

Anything is possible with Astana - I think Lance is required to help Levi - but then again sending him out on the attack to sap the legs of other GC contenders who for a variety of reasons would chase could work both ways for Astana.

 

[Parrot23]

Astana war dance

Levi and Lance psyched and ready to attack tomorrow, ready to stomp dem pedals:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7IZmRnAo6s

Got good legs and ready to rock and roll. Good sensations.

Disclaimer: purely for the humour of it, no sarcasm intended.

 

[cineteq]

Does anyone think that Armstrong will attack? And if he did... being a long way down in the GC, would they let him go?

I have a feeling he might have just been sitting back waiting for tomorrow.

Babe

No, he won't. His role is to support Levi.

 

[Parrot23]

But seriously, don't think Lance can attack, not after the way he rode today. Getting dropped.

But I do think he's getting in good form for the Tour de France. A real threat now, I would think, though the muscle he's developed may be too much of an impediment to be competitive in the mountains with the Contadors and Schlecks, etc.

 

[180mmCrank]

Does anyone think that Armstrong will attack? And if he did... being a long way down in the GC, would they let him go?

I have a feeling he might have just been sitting back waiting for tomorrow.

Babe

Lance is getting stronger - and he seems to be enjoying himself. Looking at his daily video diaries (yes i have watched a couple) he looks a lot better than he did a week or so ago - death warmed up would have been a good description then. I think he is thinking about July - he would love to be competitive and even challenge for the podium. I still don't see it myself - I think his head want's to do things his legs can't deliver and I am doubtful this will have changed by July.

So no I don't think he will attack - I think he will try to ride a good tempo and fight to stay in the frame for as long as he can. Then he and Popo' will trundle into the finish much like today - but a little further back.

As for helping Levi - I don't see it myself. He's not going to bury himself and then get shelled out the back like a proper domestic would - he ain't no George Hincapie, Jens Voight etc

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

No, he won't. His role is to support Levi.

But riding up the road early and forcing others to wear themselves out chasing, and allowing Levi to follow those wheels, might be a great help to Levi. Though Popo may be stronger suited to this, Lance would cause much more concern among others.

But seriously, don't think Lance can attack, not after the way he rode today. Getting dropped.

But I do think he's getting in good form for the Tour de France. A real threat now, I would think, though the muscle he's developed may be too much of an impediment to be competitive in the mountains with the Contadors and Schlecks, etc.

I too think he's getting into form, if still too heavy. But I can see him riding well at the Tour, and cracking the top 10, and causing some real concern. I just don't think he can attack in the mountains anymore, or climb fast enough to be honest.

As to Stage 16, I really think if Lance isn't going to go early and hope everyone else wears themselves out chasing, Levi has to attack on the Monte Nerone climb. Though it's 85k from the finish, there is no way he's going to be able to follow Menchov/DiLuca/Sastre/Basso and expect anything other than maybe 2nd or 3rd place in Rome. And if he waits to attack too late, there is no way he'll have the speed to gap anyone. He has to go early when it's a surprise, and the other riders think it's too risky to chase. Then he has to leave everything on the road more than any other time in his career.

 

[Anonymous]

menchov can just mark di luca and levi.
they have to start looking for cracks in menchov on the 2nd or 3rd climb.
i'll be surprised if there are any.
but it cuould happen if astana invests deeply in it.
the last climb is just long and steep enough to make time if a team can put more than one rider with their leader, 3 would be great, ramp up the pace right from the bottom (first part is 13 percent). protect levi, try to break the others with pace, then launch. i think there's a full minute to be had there.
you now know i'm talking levi because di luca has no such team.
if levi attacks on breakaway i have a problem with it being a good idea.
save it to the end of the stage
i still think it's to early to do anything too risky.

 

[Anonymous]

But seriously, don't think Lance can attack, not after the way he rode today. Getting dropped.

But I do think he's getting in good form for the Tour de France. A real threat now, I would think, though the muscle he's developed may be too much of an impediment to be competitive in the mountains with the Contadors and Schlecks, etc.

there's no godly reason for lance to attack tomorrow!!
he's too far down the gc to matter. he's no threat to the gc.
his engery need to get spent trying pace levi up climbs, so he can attack if someone cracks.

 

[180mmCrank]

But riding up the road early and forcing others to wear themselves out chasing, and allowing Levi to follow those wheels, might be a great help to Levi. Though Popo may be stronger suited to this, Lance would cause much more concern among others.

This would be a great approach and i really think it would pose some tough questions for all the GT pretenders and give Levi the best chance of putting some time into his rivals- he would have to go pretty early because he is so far down in GC to really be a threat.

I just don't see it - I don't think this is in Lance's playbook - I can't see him really burying himself and then getting shelled out the back for 10-15 mins. But hey he may prove me wrong - what the heck do I know

 

[ingsve]

After seeing his TT form I wonder if a stage win is on Lovqvist's plans. The last TT is short but he doesn't look like top 5 material so he has nothing to lose if he goes for the stage win.

He said after the stage yesterday that his primary goal is the white jersey. It seems that he and Seeldrayers are marking each other the last few stages. Seeldrayers looked strong yesterday so we might get some fighting over that competition as well.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Have a nasty feeling than we'll see a lot of high tempo riding, certainly on the Nerone, by Liquigas, before the attacks begin on Catria.
Hope we don't have another dose of Simoni's sheep: Poker playing on bikes, lots of eye contact, with everybody calling and not raising the stakes.

Unlikely, I know, but what a disappointment if it happens.

 

[ingsve]

Speaking of Simoni...since he lost 17 minutes yesterday I wonder if he will try and go in a break today to try for a stage win...

 

[kjetilraknerud]

My guess is that Liquigas will do something similar too CSC's approach in last years TdF, where Cancellara, Arvesen, Voigt and Gustov tore the peloton apart - and suddenly only the big favourites were there, three of them from CSC. Expect Agnoli, Carlström, Miholjevic and Szmyd to set a blistering pace on Monte Nerone and Monte Carina - then it's Pellizottis turn to attack today.

 

[ingsve]

Ya sounds like a possible plan...

 

[Zoncolan]

My guess is that Liquigas will do something similar too CSC's approach in last years TdF, where Cancellara, Arvesen, Voigt and Gustov tore the peloton apart - and suddenly only the big favourites were there, three of them from CSC. Expect Agnoli, Carlström, Miholjevic and Szmyd to set a blistering pace on Monte Nerone and Monte Carina - then it's Pellizottis turn to attack today.

I agree, though I think they will go with Basso first, as he's more likely to be allowed to get a gap by Menchov and Di Luca.
I expect Leipheimer to get dropped at some point by the other favorites.
Hope Di Luca has something left in the tank. Would love for him and Sastre to attack on the penultimate climb.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

I don't think it matters for Menchov which of them goes first. Basso is one minute behind Pellizotti, but Menchov could take a minute of Pellizotti in the last TT - he won't take that much of Basso.

 

[lookkg386]

Now there's a mountain stage for you, really interesting - Basso played his best card and no good. Sastre showed us once again what a consistant force he is and will be well satisfied with the stage win. But if his aim is overall then gaining 25 seconds on Menchov and Di Luca is not enough.

In my opinion now it's out of Menchov and Di Luca , and going one step further it's Menchov's to lose from here.

Levi seems gone, and has showed us signs the past few days that his legs aren't there, from Astana's view there was no doubt Lance will help Levi while he himself is getting stronger each stage.

Backing up in stage 17 could be the key, Liquigas I believe shoukld still have a crack with Basso and Pellizotti both top 5.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Is Sastre running himself into the ground here so much that he won't have anything left in July? He seems extremely strong right now, but the Ventoux is two months away...

Basso isn't going to win this, but he's looking more and more like he will be a very serious contender for the 2010 Tour. Anyone else feel the same?

 

[Parrot23]

At least Basso is still rising (unlike Levi, who's looked overcooked or past his peak this whole Giro, except for the TT). Sastre could be overcooking it. Hard to say, but it's a risk.

Lance's busted shoulder may turn out to be a saving grace/plus for him when the TDF rolls around: imagine if he'd arrived at the Giro healthy. Not the kind of guy to turn down a challenge once he starts racing. Not sure he's double peaked before in a season. That one Dauphine against Mayo nearly wrecked his subsequent Tour: couldn't resist going head to head with a jacked Mayo.

 

[lookkg386]

I can't help but think about July watching this Giro- so many contenders here are killing themselves in the heat!, are they taking the edge off or are they going to come into July super hard for a fight. I bet Cadel Evans is hoping the former!!!

 

[issoisso]

Basso isn't going to win this, but he's looking more and more like he will be a very serious contender for the 2010 Tour. Anyone else feel the same?

Quite.
This is his first grand tour for a while. I get the feeling we'll see what he's truly capable of in the Vuelta, which is his big aim for the latter half of the year.

We don't have much of a history of stage racers of this level coming back from years away, so I'm going to have to go back to 1998 for an example: Remember Lance's comeback? Before dominating the Tour he showed "decently" by being 4th at the Vuelta. Seems to me that top form in this situation is impossible.

Which is why I tend to agree with you.

 

[hfer07]

Is Sastre running himself into the ground here so much that he won't have anything left in July? He seems extremely strong right now, but the Ventoux is two months away...

Basso isn't going to win this, but he's looking more and more like he will be a very serious contender for the 2010 Tour. Anyone else feel the same?

Sastre will be as competitive in July as he is currently--He gets stronger as the race progresses--The only few cyclists in the peloton who can ride two grand tours the same year and obtain great results.
His next move? VESUVIO & why not the Magglia Rosa

Basso? He will take the Overall in the Giro & give a good fight in the TDF Next year...

 

[180mmCrank]

Is Sastre running himself into the ground here so much that he won't have anything left in July? He seems extremely strong right now, but the Ventoux is two months away...

Basso isn't going to win this, but he's looking more and more like he will be a very serious contender for the 2010 Tour. Anyone else feel the same?

I think Sastre is consistently one of those riders that knows how to be in the right shape at the start of a GT and get stronger as the race unfolds. I think he will be the same in July and he will be up there with the main contenders - I don't think it will be strong enough to be on top the podium this time around.

Basso is finding his legs - I think you might be right that it will take a little longer for him to get back to his previous form but the signs are all there. I hope he is able to hold it together for the next few days...he's made some big efforts... I would like to see him put some time into Pellizotti and quieten the noise around who is the leader in L'Gas.

 

[BroDeal]

Basso isn't going to win this, but he's looking more and more like he will be a very serious contender for the 2010 Tour. Anyone else feel the same?

I said in the stage thread that it is too bad that Basso did a relatively bad time trial. He would be right in the mix now if he had.