Official thread: Giro d'Italia

[Parrot23]

"Menchov is going to have his hands full when the likes of LL, Pellizotti, Basso, Sastre all start having a go as the road tips up. All of them have to win it on the longer slopes and I think all of them will try."

You think it could be like the problems Cadel had at the last TDF at Alpe d'Huez: ie. with weak team, and can't follow all the moves? ie. present him with so many choices to make that he becomes overwhelmed?

But then Cadel wasn't clearly the strongest, like Menchov appears in the Giro. But I guess, throw him enough curveballs and he only has so many strikes.

 

[BroDeal]

I watched the last couple of klicks again today - and it was the accelerations of DDL and Pellizotti that put LL and Basso in trouble. I am not so sure that on longer climbs that is going to be as effective or as much of a factor.

Agree with comments above that Sastre and Menchov look strong - but the others were not in any real trouble - they all got back on after the first acceleration and were only dropped when Pellizotti really dropped the hammer again.

Menchov is going to have his hands full when the likes of LL, Pellizotti, Basso, Sastre all start having a go as the road tips up. All of them have to win it on the longer slopes and I think all of them will try.

That could be. I am basing my projections on what happened on Alpe di Siusi. I think Menchov has the strength to put the screws on everyone but Di Luca.
.

 

[Cobblestones]

On the contrary, I'm not new to cycling at all, and I am talking about the Giro (and other stage races) this is the Giro thread after all, isn't it?

Then you should know that even if a team is leading out for their sprinter, quite often another guy takes the stage. See Ale Jet for instance. The final sprint is the sprinter's responsibility. A team can help only so far.

 

[Cobblestones]

Is the Contador faction getting paid and the Hogstrong faction getting shorted? You would think that all payments to riders would flow through team management, so something is strange here.

It was my suspicion that some riders (the Kazakh ones) might get paid under the table. Might be true for some others as well.

 

[Anonymous]

Is the Contador faction getting paid and the Hogstrong faction getting shorted? You would think that all payments to riders would flow through team management, so something is strange here.

tell you want's not strange.
brodeal baffoon not passing up a chance to use his sophomoric "hogstrong" or expose us to his delusional paranoia about factions.

does anybody but me suspect that L'Equipe is about as credible as brodeal baffoon?
no really, what about the credibility of the source.

 

[Anonymous]

di luca/levi

di luca says "I have never once seen Leipheimer attack"

levi says ""Well, if he is only six seconds ahead of me in Rome, then I won't have to attack,"

 

[180mmCrank]

That could be. I am basing my projections on what happened on Alpe di Siusi. I think Menchov has the strength to put the screws on everyone but Di Luca.
.

You could be right - and attack might end up being the best form of defense. What would happen if Menchov discarded the more modern wisdom of defending the Jersey and went a bit more old school and just put the hammer down on everyone? Rather than wait for the attacks and end up with the possibility of death by a thousand (unsupported) cuts.

I am not sure he has the wheels or the confidence to do we've seen Di Luca doing and try and take it to the opposition.

So here is what might work...let Liquigas force the pace, soften things up for Basso (or Pellizotti) and then use their launch pad to get the jump on everybody. If Menchov doesn't take the opportunity to do this then Di Luca will and I bet my house we see Sastre try an Alpe D'Huez style move later in the week.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

...oes anybody but me suspect that L'Equipe is about as credible as brodeal baffoon?
no really, what about the credibility of the source.

L'Equipe is actually a respected and credible source. It's only Lance and his PR machine that's done a very good job of smearing L'Equipe in the court of public opinion, especially in the US, in order to deflect from the accuracy of the accusations against Lance and his 1999 samples (and his secret connections to Dr. Ferrari, 1999 cortisone "skin cream", and other stories), and inoculate himself from further criticism. Every claim L'Equipe made was substantiated by Michael Ashenden and his group's study, and Ashenden himself pointed out how the so called "leak" to L'Equipe of the data happened, which was by no covert, or illegal activity at all.

Virtually everything L'Equipe has reported on has been shown to have been a fact. Lance and Johan on the other hand are the ones using subterfuge, lies, and would like to have all media silenced.

You could be right - and attack might end up being the best form of defense. What would happen if Menchov discarded the more modern wisdom of defending the Jersey and went a bit more old school and just put the hammer down on everyone?

I don't see him doing that unless he's really, really strong. He runs the risk of having too many people just follow him. And while you don't gain the same slipstream on climbs, it's still easier to follow than be out front. It's also not entirely his style to attack. Be that going to the front and setting a blistering pace like Basso, or by making sharp attacks like Di Luca. At least he hasn't done either in the past.

 

[180mmCrank]

Yep I think you're right which is why I think one of the other GT contenders with less to lose may well have a go...

So here is what might work...let Liquigas force the pace, soften things up for Basso (or Pellizotti) and then use their launch pad to get the jump on everybody. If Menchov doesn't take the opportunity to do this then Di Luca will and I bet my house we see Sastre try an Alpe D'Huez style move later in the week.

 

[Leopejo]

I guess I was not that far off in my precidtion yesterday. At least the break away stayed clear. This is what we have for tomorrow:

1st climb at 52.1 km, 8 km length @ 5.41% gradient
2nd climb at 72.1 km, 6 km length @ 6.23% gradient
3rd climb at 100.2 km, 6.2 km length @ 3.74% gradient
4th climb at 107.9 km, 3 km length @ 8.56% gradient
5th climb at 125.8 km, 9.5 km length @ 4% gradient
6th climb at 135.1 km, 6 km length @ 6.7% gradient
Finish at 161 km.

The 5th climb, Monte Casale, is harder than that average grade. It was there where Simoni succesfully attacked in 2003. Profile.

As soon as the descent ends, you'll find the next climb, the Trebbio. The first 3 km are hard, but then it gets much easier till the end. Profile.
If you have a few seconds on top you might be able to keep them until the finish 26 km later.

From km 94 onwards there is not much flat until the last 10-15 km.

 

[Mellow Velo]

does anybody but me suspect that L'Equipe is about as credible as brodeal baffoon?
no really, what about the credibility of the source.

What is certain that we now have two versions of "the truth".

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/30686745/

The Catalunya Astana squad seem to be backing the Kazakh fed, if you accept L'Equipe as a credible source.
If not, you have the words of LA and JB and twitter as your credible source.
uuuummmm.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Listen, this is plain a simple: Break Away for tomorrow. This time I see Simoni and Cunego attacking. There is no way that these two guys will wait to the harder cimbs where they Know at this point they don't stand a chance against Menchov and company. Yes, times have changed. I don't like it but it is the reality. Whether they chase them or not I am not sure. If it is not them, it has to be somebody from the top twenty. They know that the best chance to scare Menchov is to make his team work. I forgot, he does not have a good team. There it is.
Cheers.

They have to, don't they. This is Coppi e Bartali country.
Simoni took pink, on this stage, in 2003, with bit of a strategic masterpiece.
Cunego likes the final climb and has won into Faenza.

After today, it's all about the real contenders, slugging it out on stages 16 and 17.

PVC has been strangely subdued, given their terrific form, right up until this race.
Time is running out, to save Gianni Savio's Giro, not to mention Lampre's....

 

[Leopejo]

After Cavendish not starting yesterday, today it was Tyler Farrar's turn.

 

[Rosedale]

"

But I guess, throw him enough curveballs and he only has so many strikes.

I thought this was a cycling forum. As far as I am aware balls of any type are not involved in cycling. Not sure what this means.

 

[Captain Chaos]

What is certain that we now have two versions of "the truth".

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/30686745/

The Catalunya Astana squad seem to be backing the Kazakh fed, if you accept L'Equipe as a credible source.
If not, you have the words of LA and JB and twitter as your credible source.
uuuummmm.

Mellow, I'm done goofing off and respectfully apologize.

In regards to you following this issue are you suggesting that you see an attempt by JB and LA to split from Astana? My words not yours.

thanks

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Well, here we are, Stage 16, do or die time for a lot of riders, the so called "Queen Stage". The mountains aren't exactly huge, but the stage is long at 237k, and the toughest in the Giro. The Petrano climb will split the field like none other in this year's race. However, several riders if they want to try to win, are going to have to attack before that on the Catria, or maybe even the Nerone. For many riders, such as Basso, Leipheimer, or even Pelozotti or Sastre, they won't be able to sit until the last 5km up the Petrano and hope Menchov cracks. They must go earlier, and they must go all out. Levi has said he'd just as soon finish 10th than 2nd. As he showed zero aggression on stage 15, here's his big chance. He can't accelerate like DiLuca, but if he attacks at the right time, no one will immediately chase him down (think, Hinault). Oddly, the guy most likely to attack (other than Garzelli looking for KOM points) is DiLuca, who probably could wait until the Petrano climb. But we'll see. Here's the profile:

 

[lookkg386]

di luca says "I have never once seen Leipheimer attack"

levi says ""Well, if he is only six seconds ahead of me in Rome, then I won't have to attack,"

Touche!

Mind you reading between the lines, Di Luca doesn't want Levi to attack, and Levi is saying "you bet ya I'm attacking!"

Anyway what I'd like to see...

 

[lookkg386]

After Cavendish not starting yesterday, today it was Tyler Farrar's turn.

Always one step behind Cav....

 

[Captain Chaos]

What would leave anyone to think that if LL was to attack that Menchov couldn't or wouldn't counter?

I would think the rest day will come into play.

 

[lookkg386]

Well, here we are, Stage 16, do or die time for a lot of riders, the so called "Queen Stage". The mountains aren't exactly huge, but the stage is long at 237k, and the toughest in the Giro. The Petrano climb will split the field like none other in this year's race. However, several riders if they want to try to win, are going to have to attack before that on the Catria, or maybe even the Nerone. For many riders, such as Basso, Leipheimer, or even Pelozotti or Sastre, they won't be able to sit until the last 5km up the Petrano and hope Menchov cracks. They must go earlier, and they must go all out. Levi has said he'd just as soon finish 10th than 2nd. As he showed zero aggression on stage 15, here's his big chance. He can't accelerate like DiLuca, but if he attacks at the right time, no one will immediately chase him down (think, Hinault). Oddly, the guy most likely to attack (other than Garzelli looking for KOM points) is DiLuca, who probably could wait until the Petrano climb. But we'll see. Here's the profile:

Looks a fantastic course!, With Basso showing form I think he is a real favourite. I expect Garzelli up the road early before the kingpins takeover.
Is this the stage Lance shows he can be the super helper for Levi?

 

[180mmCrank]

I think today was a kind of watered down dress re-hersal for tomorrow.

I suspect we will see a similar pattern of Rabo on the front early and the Liquigas pushing the pace - I think Basso will have another go and then it's up to who else wants it - Sastre, DDL, Pellizotti.

It was hard to say if Basso ran out of steam or backed off when he realised a decent chase was comming from behind. I think Liquigas were testing folks to see who has legs and appetite. Menchov looked pretty good today when Di Luca went - as did Sastre. Levi just doesn't seem to have any acceleration and he is still a little suspect on the decents - it's difficult to see how how is going to do much more than follow. Still looks like Menchov's to lose - big day for him tommorow.

Lovqvist looked a little more sparky today which was good to see.

 

[lookkg386]

Lovqvist looked a little more sparky today which was good to see.

After seeing his TT form I wonder if a stage win is on Lovqvist's plans. The last TT is short but he doesn't look like top 5 material so he has nothing to lose if he goes for the stage win.

 

[Escarabajo]

Sometimes I feel like Andrew Hampsten was right about the Giro. Just ride hard and let the italians battle it out and you might end up with the pink jersey. In stages when you had to make the Rabobank team work, Menchov gets a lot of help from the italians (??). I guess it is their race but I'll tell you this, it is playing out very good from Menchov, Sastre and Levi.

Well, maybe we will see a different kind of race tomorrow.

Thanks.

 

[Escarabajo]

Well, here we are, Stage 16, do or die time for a lot of riders, the so called "Queen Stage". The mountains aren't exactly huge, but the stage is long at 237k, and the toughest in the Giro. The Petrano climb will split the field like none other in this year's race. However, several riders if they want to try to win, are going to have to attack before that on the Catria, or maybe even the Nerone. For many riders, such as Basso, Leipheimer, or even Pelozotti or Sastre, they won't be able to sit until the last 5km up the Petrano and hope Menchov cracks. They must go earlier, and they must go all out. Levi has said he'd just as soon finish 10th than 2nd. As he showed zero aggression on stage 15, here's his big chance. He can't accelerate like DiLuca, but if he attacks at the right time, no one will immediately chase him down (think, Hinault). Oddly, the guy most likely to attack (other than Garzelli looking for KOM points) is DiLuca, who probably could wait until the Petrano climb. But we'll see. Here's the profile:

Here it is. Another Break Away.

Basso: Will semi bunk
Di Luca: Will try to unseat Menchov. But will fade towards the end.
Levi: Will bunk
Menchov: Will hang tough.
Sastre: Along with Di Luca will attack. He will get closer to Menchov
Pellizotti: Will ride with Sastre.
Cunego: Keep loosing time.
Rogers: Is he racing in the Giro?. No way he will survive tomorrow.
Lövkvist: Will fare better than Rogers
Tadej Valjavec, David Arroyo, Serpa: Their type of mountains. They wil improve in the GC.

Winner: Break Away Rider(s)
GC Contenders: 1- Sastre, Pellizoti, 2- menchov, 3- Di Luca, 4- Basso, 5- The rest
Leader: Menchov

Cheers.

 

[Leopejo]

Don't forget to have a look at very detailed climb profiles here.