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Teams & Riders Official Wout Van Aert thread

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Salvarani

Oct 15, 2017
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Sciatic said:
I don’t know what you’re on about. Comparisons are ways we make judgements about things that are unknown or disputed. I’m not trying to predict or say I know anything for sure, but wanted to counter someone saying that Van Aert was in a big decline and unlikely to win big races. You don’t think my comparisons are valid that’s fine (I’m to lazy right now to look at age if of PR winners for last twenty years.)

What exactly are you contributing to this discussion? O course Van Aert will do what his is going to do, and whatever we say here doesn’t affect that. But if you don’t think there’s any point in discussing future outcomes based on the information we can glean, why even participate in this discussion.?
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What are you contributing by bringing up other riders results?

It is about Van Aert. Not other riders.

What Van Aert does has nothing to do with history of other riders. Especially not such anomalies as Cancellara and Valverde.

Van Aerts success or no success will be totally independent on what your point is.
 
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Sciatic

Mar 4, 2011
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Salvarani said:
What are you contributing by bringing up other riders results?

It is about Van Aert. Not other riders.
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Because we don’t have a Crystal ball to tell the future, so we use existing data of past events ( for instance, Van Aert’s super strong rides in E-3, Gent, and PR last year) and also look for datapoints/ examples of what some people with similar characteristics in similar circumstances have done in the past as indicators of potential future outcomes.

Weather forecasting, for instance, tries to project outcomes of an incoming storm by using models that compare what thousands of OTHER storms with similar characteristics in similar circumstances did in the past.
 
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Salvarani

Oct 15, 2017
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Sciatic said:
Because we don’t have a Crystal ball to tell the future, so we use existing data of past events ( for instance, Van Aert’s super strong rides in E-3, Gent, and PR last year) and also look for datapoints/ examples of what some people with similar characteristics in similar circumstances have done in the past as indicators of potential future outcomes.

Weather forecasting, for instance, tries to project outcomes of an incoming storm by using models that compare what thousands of OTHER storms with similar characteristics in similar circumstances did in the past.
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But as I originally said… there are just as many who has declined! If not more!!!

You mentioned legends of the sport.

Van Aert might end up as a legend… if does what you suggest. Right now that is either/or.

Because it could also go the other way. Based on what you are mentioning. Existing data of past events. You cant only use it to suit your own narrative.
 
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Sciatic

Mar 4, 2011
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Salvarani said:
But as I originally said… there are just as many who has declined! If not more!!!

You mentioned legends of the sport.

Van Aert might end up as a legend… if does what you suggest. Right now that is either/or.

Because it could also go the other way. Based on what you are mentioning. Existing data of past events. You cant only use it to suit your own narrative.
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I think we’ve established you don’t agree with or like my approach. I’m good with that.
 
Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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Sciatic said:
Again, my point was strong, accomplished classics riders continue to perform well after 30. I was saying that, along with saying his performances last year do not indicate declining quality, to respond to a poster who claimed he was in a steep decline because of stress of fatherhood and some character flaws. I wanted to counter with some data. You don’t think that’s useful info, that’s fine.
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Like Sagan?
 
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senna6541

Jan 18, 2020
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theyoungest said:
Yeah, to me he also seems to be a little too good already, but he has a new trainer since little over a year and obviously this is working out quite well for him. This guy seems to know how to get him into top shape at the right moments. So we'll see.
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One could argue that he is finally fully healthy again and has been able to train/race with out interruption for the first time in a while, really. And we're starting to see what a fully healthy MVDP can do in his peak years. His level in CX is sublime - basically God built the perfect CX rider - genetics, mentality, environment, etc. Great to see him operating at full strength after a couple of years watching him try to manage the *** back. That said, you did get a good sense of his toughness in races like 2021 PR where he was maybe 90% or even last year's Christmas CX period in races like Gavere where he won more on guts than anything else.
 
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senna6541

Jan 18, 2020
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Andre said:
This conversation would have looked very different had Van Aert not punctured at Paris-Roubaix.
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I'm an MVDP fan, but completely agree folks needs to slow down on the negative Wout talk. I'll always fear Wout, and my guess is that he gets either RVV or PR this year (PR much more likely) and maybe an Olympic or WC gold to boot. Good to see he is finally skipping out on wasting his talent pulling lesser talented skeletor types up mountains. Wasn't long ago that everyone was burying MVDP too...
 
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theyoungest

Jan 11, 2010
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senna6541 said:
I'm an MVDP fan, but completely agree folks needs to slow down on the negative Wout talk. I'll always fear Wout, and my guess is that he gets either RVV or PR this year (PR much more likely) and maybe an Olympic or WC gold to boot. Good to see he is finally skipping out on wasting his talent pulling lesser talented skeletor types up mountains. Wasn't long ago that everyone was burying MVDP too...
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Slow down on the negative Wout talk! It's Vingegaard we need to diss.
 
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shadowrider

May 18, 2023
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Salvarani said:
What are you contributing by bringing up other riders results?

It is about Van Aert. Not other riders.

What Van Aert does has nothing to do with history of other riders. Especially not such anomalies as Cancellara and Valverde.

Van Aerts success or no success will be totally independent on what your point is.
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Shape, skills and results are and will be always relative to other riders shape, skills and results. So, Van Aert has to anticipate, which he didn't do enough in the past. Thus he became relatively less strong than guys as VdP, Pogacar etc. Although in absolute terms he remained just as strong (or was even stronger) than in the past. A new trainer/coach is already a good thing. In 2024 no more having to do slave labor for Roglic and Vingegaard in the Tour will help him to achieve better results in july, august and september (olympic games, worlds....). Hopefully he will finally realize that his current team is not the right one. But if he can finally join another team (end of contract or with a heavy lump sum payment) his best years are long gone.
 
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