One important thing though is that the 2015 amd 2018 cobbled stages did very little damage, and in 2010 it was mainly down to crashes.
If its dry it shouldnt be that selective. Roubaix is all about attrition and they do less cobbles tham they do in Roubaix before they even hit Arenberg
It's going to be warm and dry. The only analogue we could hope for is the semi-Strade Bianche stage in the Giro last year. Now THAT was entertaining. However, this is a far easier parcours.
I would be very surprised if every GC contender makes it through safely. There will be a few untimely punctures and crashes, hopefully no one lands on a knee or breaks a collarbone.
To bring this thread around, Wout really should be off the leash and given Laporte as a dom. This stage should be his for the taking; I don't think MvdP is in as good a shape for some reason, and he'll be marked really closely because he's targeting it so intensely. And teams are getting wise to how to beat him, which is basically just make him pull and pull and pull. Or maybe he'll just do one of his 60 km to go suicide attacks and blow up.
My sentimental favorite is Sagan, though.