Over- and underachievers during the last 20 years

[Koronin]

Out of curiosity what's the hate for TommyV all about

Never cared for his antics.

 

[SHAD0W93]

75% tongue, 25% climbing style theatrics.

I lost my drink from reading this.

 

[Leinster]

Has Zakarin been mentioned yet?

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Not aiming to hijack the thread here, but referring to title, why is time horizon limited to 20 years?

 

[SafeBet]

Has Zakarin been mentioned yet?

Overachiever or underachiever?

 

[Leinster]

Overachiever or underachiever?

3 GT stages and 1 Romandie seems a light return for a rider of his talents, to me.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Not aiming to hijack the thread here, but referring to title, why is time horizon limited to 20 years?

Probably easier to name riders since some don't have the deep knowledge like some posters.

 

[SafeBet]

3 GT stages and 1 Romandie seems a light return for a rider of his talents, to me.

He's got a GT podium too.
I believe a number of factors can explain his lack of success at WT level:

1. terrible bike handling skills
2. short peak (3 years?)
3. his best years coincided with the big4 years. Froome, Nibali, Contador and Quintana won 12 of 15 GTs between 2013 and 2017 and a ton of WT short stage races in the process. There was really not much to win in that time frame, unless a rider made the Vuelta his main target of the season, which he rarely did.

His history before turning pro is also a bit shady and casts some doubts over his sudden decline after 2017, but this is probably better discussed elsewhere.

 

[Leinster]

He's got a GT podium too.
I believe a number of factors can explain his lack of success at WT level:

1. terrible bike handling skills
2. short peak (3 years?)
3. his best years coincided with the big4 years. Froome, Nibali, Contador and Quintana won 12 of 15 GTs between 2013 and 2017 and a ton of WT short stage races in the process. There was really not much to win in that time frame, unless a rider made the Vuelta his main target of the season, which he rarely did.

His history before turning pro is also a bit shady and casts some doubts over his sudden decline after 2017, but this is probably better discussed elsewhere.

He has one of those GT podiums where he never actually put up a genuine challenge for the title. But it showed enough promise to hint that he might one day... but since then, nothing.

He's the same age as Pinot, and he just hasn't kicked on since those days, whereas Pinot is a genuine GC contender now. He was a terrible bike handler then; so was Pinot, but Pinot doesn't get dropped on descents any more. I dunno, I just expected him to be a contender at this stage, and be someone who gets mentioned in the "potential Tour Winners" conversation, but if I hadn't been scrolling through and looked at the CCC team, I wouldn't have known he was even riding this Tour.


Maybe he's trying to come in under the radar and surprise people...

 

[Red Rick]

He's got a GT podium too.
I believe a number of factors can explain his lack of success at WT level:

1. terrible bike handling skills
2. short peak (3 years?)
3. his best years coincided with the big4 years. Froome, Nibali, Contador and Quintana won 12 of 15 GTs between 2013 and 2017 and a ton of WT short stage races in the process. There was really not much to win in that time frame, unless a rider made the Vuelta his main target of the season, which he rarely did.

His history before turning pro is also a bit shady and casts some doubts over his sudden decline after 2017, but this is probably better discussed elsewhere.

Zakarin's decline is a bit of a random one. Still a good rider but he was honestly at the sort of level where a small decline crumbles your results, sadly.

But in that period I don't really think Zaka really over or underperformed and he's mostly a guy who fell off a bit, whatever that means.

 

[Red Rick]

If you only consider the wins column, Urán is a big underachiever.
For a guy that lost a TdF to Froome by seconds, a Giro to Nibali, while working for Wiggins and a Giro to Quintana, with Stelviogate included, you may think his wins should have been numerous. No GTs, no stage races, just 1-day and stages

Uran is just.. weird. Most of time you have him down as like a top 6 guy in the Giro and top 10 guy in the Tour but when he's great he's come pretty damn close to winning one.

Also Olympic silver. 2nds in Il Lombardia. Crashed out of the 2013 Worlds in the descent after making the final selection. Somehow never really threatened in one week races, or maybe weirder, in La Vuelta. Don't know if he hates heat or something.

Urans average level has historically not been insane, but with all the 2nd places in big races he's had, I honestly would consider him an underperformer.

 

[gregrowlerson]

The 2011 Tour was weird in many ways. Maybe the Schleck's could have ridden a little harder in the Pyrenees (Evans was unlikely to meltdown in the same way that he did in 2009, after his team actually were competitive in the TTT), but when I look back, Voeckler was crazily unexpectantly strong in the mountains. It wasn't like everyone was soft pedalling and 20-30 riders were coming in at the same time (even that would have been impressive for Tommy to be with them). Stage 12 to Luz Ardiden had Frank Schleck 1st of the GC riders, 3rd on the stage, 20 seconds ahead of Basso, Evans and Andy; with Cunego 5 seconds behind them, Contador 8 seconds behind him, then Voeckler 7 seconds behind him. Even with Alberto winning the Giro and being crash effected; that's bat *** CRAZY. 15th on that stage was at 1:56, so like I said, not really soft pedalling like most of us sort of thought at the time. And on stage 14 to PDB, well, this was a little more boring, but Tommy came in with the main group of only 9 riders, and after that there were big time gaps.

A reason for there not being a little more action on these stages was that Contador had already lost time in the race, and wasn't exactly threatening to take any of that back.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I think Rolland is an underachiever, superbe climbing style and after 2011 I had high expectations when it came to him. He also faded really fast, his prime was pretty short.

 

[hayneplane]

I think Rolland is an underachiever, superbe climbing style and after 2011 I had high expectations when it came to him. He also faded really fast, his prime was pretty short.

Good call. For a while he looked like the best French climber of his generation and was a daring rider up for long range raids to gain time but too poor against the clock to challenge regularly for podiums.

Odd how he dropped completely off the radar from top 5 contender to usually being amongst the first to get dropped from breakaways in the big breakaway days in the mountains and medium mountains. Seems to be having a small revival of form this year so maybe he will make a run at the polka dot jersey.

 

[tobydawq]

Lars Boom. He looked really, really good in 2009 when he converted to the road but apart from the amazing stage in the 2014 Tour he never really reached those heights (I know he won a few minor stage races, but still).

Edit: I now see that some Dutch guy already mentioned him on page one.

 

[Red Rick]

The 2011 Tour was weird in many ways. Maybe the Schleck's could have ridden a little harder in the Pyrenees (Evans was unlikely to meltdown in the same way that he did in 2009, after his team actually were competitive in the TTT), but when I look back, Voeckler was crazily unexpectantly strong in the mountains. It wasn't like everyone was soft pedalling and 20-30 riders were coming in at the same time (even that would have been impressive for Tommy to be with them). Stage 12 to Luz Ardiden had Frank Schleck 1st of the GC riders, 3rd on the stage, 20 seconds ahead of Basso, Evans and Andy; with Cunego 5 seconds behind them, Contador 8 seconds behind him, then Voeckler 7 seconds behind him. Even with Alberto winning the Giro and being crash effected; that's bat *** CRAZY. 15th on that stage was at 1:56, so like I said, not really soft pedalling like most of us sort of thought at the time. And on stage 14 to PDB, well, this was a little more boring, but Tommy came in with the main group of only 9 riders, and after that there were big time gaps.

A reason for there not being a little more action on these stages was that Contador had already lost time in the race, and wasn't exactly threatening to take any of that back.

When much of Luz Ardiden is done with 20 guys after Szmyd doing 70% of the pacing the way up then it's not a fast ascent. Plateau de Beille was 1'30 slower than in 2015 when they also finished in a group.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Lars Boom. He looked really, really good in 2009 when he converted to the road but apart from the amazing stage in the 2014 Tour he never really reached those heights (I know he won a few minor stage races, but still).

It's difficult to gauge guys like that. He was deemed a huge prospect mostly based on what he did in CX. Sven Nys once did a "decent" Paris Roubaix (though those were different times, obviously), and even Stybar never really made it to the very top (in terms of results), while riding for DQS. Can you really say Boom was an underachiever? When you have shown so little in a long career, i don't have any reason to assume he underachieved. Everybody has a few good days in his career.

 

[tobydawq]

It's difficult to gauge guys like that. He was deemed a huge prospect mostly based on what he did in CX. Sven Nys once did a "decent" Paris Roubaix (though those were different times, obviously), and even Stybar never really made it to the very top (in terms of results), while riding for DQS. Can you really say Boom was an underachiever? When you have shown so little in a long career, i don't have any reason to assume he underachieved. Everybody has a few good days in his career.

His results in the fall of 2009 certainly don't look particularly overwhelming but there was something about him that suggested he could be a man of the future and do well in all terrains. That didn't really happen.

I didn't follow cross back then so the feeling is purely (almost) based on his road performances.

 

[Red Rick]

His results in the fall of 2009 certainly don't look particularly overwhelming but there was something about him that suggested he could be a man of the future and do well in all terrains. That didn't really happen.

I didn't follow cross back then so the feeling is purely (almost) based on his road performances.

Yeah, Boom was also somewhat of a TT prodigy but then he immediately stagnated.

 

[tobydawq]

Also, could we change durning to during in the thread title?

 

[Scarponi]

I remember being super salty at Evans winning, but that would've been nothing compared to the salt mine I would've been at Voeckler winning the Tour.

Always makes me laugh that the mythical TDF and WC bundle that everyone on here was crying that Valverde never achieved was nailed by Evans and no one has come close since. I think Evans overachieved but his mental toughness on the bike (not so much off it) saved him, he was always near the front in the mountains despite being no where near the best climber. Following RoboBasso for a long peroid on the Zoncolon in a race he was using as a warm up is a testament to his mental toughness.

I always thought if he wasn't such a high tier GC rider he could have won a lot of one day races if he peaked for them as he was a good climber, descender and puncher. Could have won Fleche a time or two more, a Liege, Lombardia, San Sebastion or Strade Bianchi so that is where I think he underachieved.

 

[Leinster]

I always thought if he wasn't such a high tier GC rider he could have won a lot of one day races if he peaked for them as he was a good climber, descender and puncher. Could have won Fleche a time or two more, a Liege, Lombardia, San Sebastion or Strade Bianchi so that is where I think he underachieved.

World Champion and TdF winner, but he never got it done on the Mur de Huy. What a waster.


Oh, and Dumoulin was 2nd in the Giro, 2nd in the Tour and 4th at Worlds in 2018. I’d say he counts as coming close.

 

[lenric]

I'd rate Bardet as a bit of an underachiever.
I'd also say I'd expect Cadel Evans and Valverde to have won 2 or 3 more GTs (especially Evans).
Perhaps Samuel Sanchez was also an underachiever, as I'd think he could win 1 or 2 Vueltas.
Vino could have won more GTs also.
Van den Broeck also. Guess that injuries screwed him.
Same for Esteban Chaves.
Daniel Moreno (perhaps I'm being kind of irrational here, but I considered him to be able to fight for podiums here and there at GTs).
Nieve.
Talansky.

Kashechkin was an overachiever (never really liked him along with almost all of the Vino entourage).
Menchov imo was also an overachiever.
Juan Jose Cobo also?
Aru.
Meintjes.
Rui Costa.

 

[42x16ss]

With a more level head and more favourable circumstances Evans could have been a triple TDF winner, and possibly a Giro or Vuelta as well. Scary thought.

 

[movingtarget]

I agree with the person who mentioned Nibali as overachiever. None of his 4 GTs were won against a top GT talent in his prime. He never beat a prime Froome, Contador, Andy Schleck, Quintana etc. To win as many GTs without beating this caliber of riders definetely can be seen as an unusual tendency to be in the right place at the right time. The same goes for his MSR win as riders of his speciality can't really win this race without hesitation in the peloton.

Speaking of Andy Schleck, I find him an underachiever, mainly because he was just 26 when he scored the last result of any significance in his career and seemed by far the most talented GT rider of his generation at that point so it feels he was destined to do so much more.

I find Thomas de Gendt a bit of an overachiever. It's amusing that a rider with his level of sprint and punch could've taken so many big wins from breakaways.

Lachlan Morton seemed like a rider who had potential to achieve so much more if he was willing to put more dedication into his career. I saw him as a future GT podium contender when he was 19-21.

Kwiatkowski not having a GT stage win yet is such a great underachievement.

Sagan having won just 2 monuments doesn't look like what he was capable of either.

Hugh Carthy is an underdog underachiever for me. Not that I would've expected him to have top results but the number of times he lost a chance for a better GC place in stage races due to a mechanical, a bad day or working for a guy who turned out to be weaker than him is just so overwhelming compared to what he has actually achieved.

De Gendt does have a podium in the Giro so the all round talent is there and his TT would have been even better than it already is if he had trained for it specifically. I could also see De Gendt as an underachiever.