Over- and underachievers during the last 20 years

[movingtarget]

Evans and Schleck both should have won more than one grand tour. Schleck was more of a natural talent but if he had Evans drive he would have won multiple grand tours. But Evans also won a world road title which is a very difficult race to win which makes Oscar Freire's record quite amazing but he also had the talent, and sprint on the right course.

Robbie McEwen probably underachieved by never winning a monument or a world road title.

 

[Red Rick]

Evans and Schleck both should have won more than one grand tour. Schleck was more of a natural talent but if he had Evans drive he would have won multiple grand tours. But Evans also won a world road title which is a very difficult race to win which makes Oscar Freire's record quite amazing but he also had the talent, and sprint on the right course.

Robbie McEwen probably underachieved by never winning a monument or a world road title.

Evans was solid, consistent GT rider but ultimately I don't think he had the climbing wheels to consider him an underachiever for winning one Tour and getting podiums in the others. Both the Tours he got second in he had very favorable routes, in 2007 Contador was mainly occupied with Rasmussen and in 2008 he lost a truck of time on 3 MTF to lose the race. Then he needed a huge stroke of luck to win in 2011 anyway.

Schleck yeah, should have won more than one based on his climbing alone.

I'd rate Bardet as a bit of an underachiever.
I'd also say I'd expect Cadel Evans and Valverde to have won 2 or 3 more GTs (especially Evans).
Perhaps Samuel Sanchez was also an underachiever, as I'd think he could win 1 or 2 Vueltas.
Vino could have won more GTs also.
Van den Broeck also. Guess that injuries screwed him.
Same for Esteban Chaves.
Daniel Moreno (perhaps I'm being kind of irrational here, but I considered him to be able to fight for podiums here and there at GTs).
Nieve.
Talansky.

Kashechkin was an overachiever (never really liked him along with almost all of the Vino entourage).
Menchov imo was also an overachiever.
Juan Jose Cobo also?
Aru.
Meintjes.
Rui Costa.

Samu could've won a Vuelta, but that's about it. Might have been more interesting for 1 day races. OG makes up for not winning a GT IMO.

Vino I wouldn't know. OG and 2 LBLs already, don't think he got close once apart from that Vuelta. Think he's an overachiever.

Van den Broeck, perhaps an underachiever but no GT winner at all.

Dani Moreno finished 9 consecutive times in the top 12 in La Vuelta, with a lone 5th place as a top 5. Kind of guy where if he's gonna win big, it's more likely to be a luckyish LBL or Lombardia. Maybe what if he hand't been a domestique for Purito, but overall really solid rider.

Chaves is a good shout based on 2016, but I think he overperformed that year and has been underperforming since. Don't think he'd underperform by not winning a GT, cause he's one of the worst TTers of the lot and he doesn't exactly fly away from everyone to make up for it. That 2016 Giro was the ultimate shithouse win from Nibali, but ultimately he just dropped Chavito badly.

Nieve, hasn't won a Tour stage and that's the only underachievement I see. Great climber wish he'd gotten more chances as a stage hunter.

Talansky, don't really know

Agree with the overachievers, though Cobo did have the mental health issues.

 

[Red Rick]

By the way.

Did we miss Igor Anton in this?

 

[Roku]

I'd rate Bardet as a bit of an underachiever.
I'd also say I'd expect Cadel Evans and Valverde to have won 2 or 3 more GTs (especially Evans).
Perhaps Samuel Sanchez was also an underachiever, as I'd think he could win 1 or 2 Vueltas.
Van den Broeck also. Guess that injuries screwed him.
Same for Esteban Chaves.
Daniel Moreno (perhaps I'm being kind of irrational here, but I considered him to be able to fight for podiums here and there at GTs).
Nieve.
Talansky.


Menchov imo was also an overachiever.

IMHO you confuse or do not understand the terms. Everyone you're listing is an overachiever, except for Evans and possibly Chaves, but I honestly have doubts for Esteban. He was too irregular before his prime and look at his resume - 2 GT podium, 5 GT stages, Lombardia and Emillia.

Bardet? The guy has been twice in the TDF podium and got a silver in WC, he is definitely an overachiever. He is a good climber (but not spectacular) with awful skills for TT and flat. 3 stages and a KOM in TDF with lesser GC places is a good match to his talent.

Van den Broeck? Seriously? He has been 4th twice in TDF (and even a podium after Menchov was stripped of his 3rd place in TDF 2010). That's more than enough for him. The only thing he is lacking is a GT stage, but he was never interested in that, apart from his early years in Lotto with Evans.

Samuel Sanchez winning a GT would have been utterly overachieving.

Daniel Moreno won FW and was 2nd in Lombardia. This is a guy who couldn't beat Danilo Hondo in a Giro d'Italia mountain stage back in 2010 when he was 29 (supposedly his prime years). He was quite good in sprinting flat out in a 1 KM steep hill during the pinnacle of his career. He was not a good climber, TTer... there is no way he could achieve a GT podium. And I will exclude any clinic related issue.

Finally, Menchov was the best GT rider of the 4 year span between Armstrong and Contador. Excellent climber and TTer with lesser bike handling skills that cost him a TDF (he was en route to get the yellow jersey on the climb up to Prato Nevoso in 2008 and Menchov was nearly unbeatable when holding the leader's jersey - only Manolo Sainz with his Liberty Squad, a great descending attack from Heras and an awful set of teammates cost him 2005 Vuelta). He wasted the last peak year at Geox and usually lost time in silly ways. He wasn't very tough mentally but talent-wise, he was much better than Sastre, Evans and the other GT conteders from that years.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Igor Anton was never the same after that crash in the 2010 Vuelta.
About Dani Moreno, I remember that Ekimov was frustrated with him, he said that he only performed when he was a 2nd option besides Purito, not when he was the designated leader, a bit of a Klöden syndrome. He also claimed that he had the potential to be even better than Purito in the high mountains (he looked stronger in the 2015 Andorra stage and probably could have stayed with Aru on that day).

 

[Red Rick]

Igor Anton was never the same after that crash in the 2010 Vuelta.
About Dani Moreno, I remember that Ekimov was frustrated with him, he said that he only performed when he was a 2nd option besides Purito, not when he was the designated leader, a bit of a Klöden syndrome. He also claimed that he had the potential to be even better than Purito in the high mountains (he looked stronger in the 2015 Andorra stage and probably could have stayed with Aru on that day).

The weird thing about Anton is he won Zoncolan 2011 then never did something like that again, which makes it harder to put it down to that crash.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Igor was like Haimar Zubeldia but less comfortable with his role. He came into the 2011 Vuelta as one of the outright favourites, and while the outright failure as a leader did lead to the iconic stage win in Bilbao, it wasn't quite what they'd intended, and I think it could well have been that abject failure as a team leader that completely ruined him psychologically as he never really acted as a team leader again. While Zubeldia settled into a role of being a quiet achiever and amassed a decent palmarès of placements, Antón sort of faded away to obscurity. It was also not helped by firstly that when Igor was failing to become team leader, Euskaltel didn't have sufficient options for that to not be a problem for them, as opposed to Haimar a few years earlier when they could just focus on Samu and Iban Mayo instead, as Samu was getting up there in age and Landa wasn't yet ready. And then with the demise of Euskaltel, he was forced to learn a new way separate from the comforting arms of the Fundación Euskadi, in whose teams he'd been riding since cadets. He was never a consistent rider, but he seemed to lose his top end capabilities then.

World Champion and TdF winner, but he never got it done on the Mur de Huy. What a waster.


Oh, and Dumoulin was 2nd in the Giro, 2nd in the Tour and 4th at Worlds in 2018. I’d say he counts as coming close.

Was that a sarcastic adjoint to the previous post about the relative merits of wins, or did you genuinely forget Cuddles won La Flèche Wallonne in 2010?

 

[roundabout]

Anton broke an elbow in that crash. Hardly a career altering injury physically.

I think he overachieved in those 2 weeks in that Vuelta.

 

[Red Rick]

Anton broke an elbow in that crash. Hardly a career altering injury physically.

I think he overachieved in those 2 weeks in that Vuelta.

It's not the only times he's had such level results. He beat Contador on a big MTF in Castilla y Leon in 2010, and he was top 5 in FW as well. Perhaps the closer argument might be that Vuelta field was suspect, but there's nothing stolen about winning on the frigging Zoncolan and beating Contador by half a minute.

I wonder if he made any comments about his sudden breakdown in that Giro.

 

[roundabout]

His best GT GC position was 5th (out of the favorites) in when he crashed out in 2008 Vuelta.

He won 2 stages already having never won more than 1 in any GT before or after.

 

[Mayomaniac]

It's not the only times he's had such level results. He beat Contador on a big MTF in Castilla y Leon in 2010, and he was top 5 in FW as well. Perhaps the closer argument might be that Vuelta field was suspect, but there's nothing stolen about winning on the frigging Zoncolan and beating Contador by half a minute.

I wonder if he made any comments about his sudden breakdown in that Giro.

That was a full Zomegnan Giro, I don't blame anyone from cracking durning that race. Besides Contador all the gc contenders were cooked after that race, most of them couldn't even ride a good Vuelta.

 

[movingtarget]

Igor Anton was never the same after that crash in the 2010 Vuelta.
About Dani Moreno, I remember that Ekimov was frustrated with him, he said that he only performed when he was a 2nd option besides Purito, not when he was the designated leader, a bit of a Klöden syndrome. He also claimed that he had the potential to be even better than Purito in the high mountains (he looked stronger in the 2015 Andorra stage and probably could have stayed with Aru on that day).

Yes Anton was a strange one. His GT ability just disappeared after that Vuelta.

 

[lenric]

Bardet? The guy has been twice in the TDF podium and got a silver in WC, he is definitely an overachiever. He is a good climber (but not spectacular) with awful skills for TT and flat. 3 stages and a KOM in TDF with lesser GC places is a good match to his talent.

I have always considered Bardet better than Pinot (mentally speaking), so by now imo he should have achieved a bit more if he wasn't so Tour-centric (as usual with french riders). Maybe a couple more podiums at other GTs, even one win with a bit of luck. so yes, to me he's a bit of an underachiever.

Van den Broeck? Seriously? He has been 4th twice in TDF (and even a podium after Menchov was stripped of his 3rd place in TDF 2010). That's more than enough for him. The only thing he is lacking is a GT stage, but he was never interested in that, apart from his early years in Lotto with Evans.

VDB around 25/26 was thought to be a guy destined to be a GT podium contender, at least in my book and on several cyclist journalists. Not GT-winning material, but better.

Samuel Sanchez winning a GT would have been utterly overachieving.

Disagree on this, considering the likes of Hesjedal and Wiggins.

Daniel Moreno won FW and was 2nd in Lombardia. This is a guy who couldn't beat Danilo Hondo in a Giro d'Italia mountain stage back in 2010 when he was 29 (supposedly his prime years). He was quite good in sprinting flat out in a 1 KM steep hill during the pinnacle of his career. He was not a good climber, TTer... there is no way he could achieve a GT podium. And I will exclude any clinic related issue.

One stage means 0.
Moreno could have achieved more. GT wins? Completely not, but Vuelta podiums here and there why not?

Finally, Menchov was the best GT rider of the 4 year span between Armstrong and Contador. Excellent climber and TTer with lesser bike handling skills that cost him a TDF (he was en route to get the yellow jersey on the climb up to Prato Nevoso in 2008 and Menchov was nearly unbeatable when holding the leader's jersey - only Manolo Sainz with his Liberty Squad, a great descending attack from Heras and an awful set of teammates cost him 2005 Vuelta). He wasted the last peak year at Geox and usually lost time in silly ways. He wasn't very tough mentally but talent-wise, he was much better than Sastre, Evans and the other GT conteders from that years.

Menchov won in 2007 and 2009, so well into Contador's years (even though no directly confronting him on those wins). Honestly, I've never rated him any higher than Evans, who physiologically was world-class (as it can easily be found out if you research). To me, Menchov was a lucky Uran, maybe a bit more talented, but that's it.
In 2008 he was 5th in the Giro and 4th on the Tour (3th after the dsq of Khol). Both of the GTs had weak fields, even Contador wasn't on his best days, considering he was aiming the tour, not the giro (only rode it because of Astana's shitshow).

I know the thing about Menchov might raise some eyebrows, but honestly I have always thought of him as a talented guy, yet very lucky on his GT wins, benefiting from weak competition. Basso was returning from a ban on Menchov's Giro win, the other 2 guys on the podium (di Luca and Pellizotti) were never GT podium contenders. Even the good old Leipheimer was already declining.

 

[lenric]

I forgot Anton. Always have put him and Nieve on the same level (kind of).

 

[broppo]

erik dekker, great overachiever

 

[perico]

By the way.

Did we miss Igor Anton in this?

That’s a good one. He was supposed to be the next great Basque threat following the legendary Euskatel duo of Mayo/Zubeldia. Never contended seriously for victory after he crashed out of that Vuelta.

 

[Scarponi]

With a more level head and more favourable circumstances Evans could have been a triple TDF winner, and possibly a Giro or Vuelta as well. Scary thought.

Would it be that scary of a thought, except towards his final two years and even then he won stage races in Italy he rarely ever went and sat the back of the peleton like some of the other GT riders like Thomas, Schleck and Nibali(obviously not all the time). Bloke was always pushing himself to get the best result he could. Proved to be a top 2-3 climber on multiple days of stage races and GTs over a ten year period. A tour and that Veulta he lost plus all the podiums would have been a great GT palmares.

 

[Scarponi]

Scarponi probably got exactly out of his career for his talent, probably had enough to win a weak GT like 2011 Giro if Contador didn't come and plenty of stage races.

 

[perico]

Underachiever if you only consider
Considering the hype a few years back, Eduardo Sepulveda is a guy who hasn’t delivered anything of note.

Christian Vande Velde is potentially a big underachiever. I've read the story a couple of times that he tested stronger than Armstrong in one of the internal tests in U.S. Postal during the times when they were team-mates but the doctors didn't dare to say the riders about that not to infuriate Armstrong.
Then when he actually became the team leader at Garmin he had a great Tour de France in his first year there but after that he was breaking bones 2 times a year on average and thus was completely unable to build on that and score more stand-out results.

I was going to mention Van de Velde. One of the nicest guys in the pro peloton also (at least the times I met him which was in his CSC days and before his breakthrough and also discounting the clinical issues anyone from USPS deals with).

Sticking with the American contingent for underachievers- I gotta go with Bobby freakin Julich. Another one straight out of the clinic era, but another genuinely nice guy (after he was humbled). Looked like the next sure American GC star, or at least someone who could regularly finish in Top 5s at GT. Some people point out that JaJa and Escartin abandoned with their teams and benefitted from that, but I disagree. People forget that he wore #1 and was the American seen most likely to succeed LeMond before the 1999 Tour. Literally fails as a GC leader for 4 years before his late resurgence as Basso’s superdomestique. Then did the ultimate Julich thing ever in his last chance to ride high in the GC in 2006 after Puerto... crashed out in the TT.

 

[lenric]

Also I don't know if Wilco Kelderman has been mentioned as being an underachiever. The guy was highly rated as a future star some 4 or 5 years ago.

 

[42x16ss]

Underachiever if you only consider
Considering the hype a few years back, Eduardo Sepulveda is a guy who hasn’t delivered anything of note.



I was going to mention Van de Velde. One of the nicest guys in the pro peloton also (at least the times I met him which was in his CSC days and before his breakthrough and also discounting the clinical issues anyone from USPS deals with).

Sticking with the American contingent for underachievers- I gotta go with Bobby freakin Julich. Another one straight out of the clinic era, but another genuinely nice guy (after he was humbled). Looked like the next sure American GC star, or at least someone who could regularly finish in Top 5s at GT. Some people point out that JaJa and Escartin abandoned with their teams and benefitted from that, but I disagree. People forget that he wore #1 and was the American seen most likely to succeed LeMond before the 1999 Tour. Literally fails as a GC leader for 4 years before his late resurgence as Basso’s superdomestique. Then did the ultimate Julich thing ever in his last chance to ride high in the GC in 2006 after Puerto... crashed out in the TT.

Certainly agree with Julich.

If you can genuinely contend in a dogfight with Ullrich and Pantani you should be able to do something big at least once

 

[Red Rick]

Also I don't know if Wilco Kelderman has been mentioned as being an underachiever. The guy was highly rated as a future star some 4 or 5 years ago.

For me it's because he never had one mountain stage suggesting he could really win GTs.

 

[SafeBet]

For me it's because he never had one mountain stage suggesting he could really win GTs.

Courchevel in the 2014 Dauphine was pretty impressive though. He destroyed both Contador and Nibali on that last climb.

 

[Red Rick]

Courchevel in the 2014 Dauphine was pretty impressive though. He destroyed both Contador and Nibali on that last climb.

I don't remember how that stage went exactly, but he was in a breakaway group while Contador and Nibs were still sitting on Froome. Contador did by far the fastest final 2 climbs that day.

 

[SafeBet]

I don't remember how that stage went exactly, but he was in a breakaway group while Contador and Nibs were still sitting on Froome. Contador did by far the fastest final 2 climbs that day.

Nope, he was in the main group.
He attacked with Nibali before the last climb and was the best placed rider from that group.