Over- and underachievers during the last 20 years

[Red Rick]

It requires you to believe his form would be the exact same 1 day and 2 weeks after a really big crash, and if you compare him to Menchov in the ITTs, who didn't make major crashes, he was within 10s of him in both ITTs.

Add in the fact that it's far from the only time Evans had dropped 2 minutes on an HC mountain, and I think it's a stretch to completely blame it on the crash.

There's also the fact that Sastre wasn't allowed to attack on the Agnello, and that Menchov lost a minute in 2 splits as well as crashing uphill.

 

[perico]

It's completely reasonable for others to expect him to lose much more time than he did.

Wasn’t that also the day that Contador dropped about :30 sec for a chain or flat tire? Rasmussen was no fluke, and it was a huge blunder on the part of the other teams to let him up the road. Funny enough I remember watching that stage and thinking the Tour was over because they were giving Mick Rogers a huge lead (he was still considered a future GC hopeful at the time). I think the 2005 TT debacle was still on my mind and I just assumed he’d flub it ag

Rasmussen’s gap was noticeable but remember laughing my ass off at how stupid the rest of the peloton had been to give him that gap when he pulled out the TT a few days later. I think I was also inwardly laughing at the loud contingent of Menchov fans who were in denial about Menchov now having to work for The Chicken of all riders. Even then, they were adamant that he was the best climber in the peloton.

I liked Rasmussen, but I don’t think the peloton were worried about him until it was too late. He went on those long suicide attacks every year, and they incorrectly assumed he would fold. He proved them wrong, but I don’t think he would’ve been in that position had the peloton been more attentive.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah nowadays it just would never stick cause stronger teams would just chase to keep him in touching distance. That stage didn't have very steep climbs.

 

[geisterhome]

What about Jan Ullrich? Still counts as last 20 years right, he ran into LA and that prevented few Tour victories. Before that he lost also 1 Tour to Pantani which didn't need to happen. If he focused on the Vuelta and Giro instead he would have definently won a lot more than just two GTs.

 

[perico]

What about Jan Ullrich? Still counts as last 20 years right, he ran into LA and that prevented few Tour victories. Before that he lost also 1 Tour to Pantani which didn't need to happen. If he focused on the Vuelta and Giro instead he would have definently won a lot more than just two GTs.

underachiever even as great as he was and the whole era of clinicians. Could have still won another few TdFs. I’m one of the few who think he would’ve destroyed Basso in 2006. Unfortunate but that’s what happens when you play with fire.

 

[Forever The Best]

Wasn’t that also the day that Contador dropped about :30 sec for a chain or flat tire? Rasmussen was no fluke, and it was a huge blunder on the part of the other teams to let him up the road. Funny enough I remember watching that stage and thinking the Tour was over because they were giving Mick Rogers a huge lead (he was still considered a future GC hopeful at the time). I think the 2005 TT debacle was still on my mind and I just assumed he’d flub it ag

Rasmussen’s gap was noticeable but remember laughing my ass off at how stupid the rest of the peloton had been to give him that gap when he pulled out the TT a few days later. I think I was also inwardly laughing at the loud contingent of Menchov fans who were in denial about Menchov now having to work for The Chicken of all riders. Even then, they were adamant that he was the best climber in the peloton.

I liked Rasmussen, but I don’t think the peloton were worried about him until it was too late. He went on those long suicide attacks every year, and they incorrectly assumed he would fold. He proved them wrong, but I don’t think he would’ve been in that position had the peloton been more attentive.

Rogers was in the same group as Rasmussen when he crashed on the descent of Cormet de Roselend. But he got injured after the crash and retired at the next climb IIRC.

 

[perico]

Rogers was in the same group as Rasmussen when he crashed on the descent of Cormet de Roselend. But he got injured after the crash and retired at the next climb IIRC.

I know that. That’s why I said he was the one who I thought was the biggest threat. He didn’t turn out that way since he crashed. I thought it was stupid to let that break go.

 

[Cookster15]

It requires you to believe his form would be the exact same 1 day and 2 weeks after a really big crash, and if you compare him to Menchov in the ITTs, who didn't make major crashes, he was within 10s of him in both ITTs.

Add in the fact that it's far from the only time Evans had dropped 2 minutes on an HC mountain, and I think it's a stretch to completely blame it on the crash.

There's also the fact that Sastre wasn't allowed to attack on the Agnello, and that Menchov lost a minute in 2 splits as well as crashing uphill.

It’s not a stretch at all. It was a very bad crash. End of. Plus Evans has almost always been a better TTer than Menchov. I assume you are aware he beat Mick Rogers in the 2002 Commonwealth Games ITT? In 2008 Sastre had the luxury of being one of three possible leaders.

When Evans dropped 2 mins there were good reasons. Like AC and Chicken in 2007, Had Evans not tried to follow and instead ride in with Levi he wins that Tour.

But we could argue all day you are not going to change my mind as I obviously won’t change yours. That’s fine.

 

[tobydawq]

Jean-Christophe Péraud. Second in the Tour, wtf?

 

[Koronin]

Jean-Christophe Péraud. Second in the Tour, wtf?

2014 Tour. Podium: Nibali, Jean-Christopeh Péraud, and Thibaut Pinto with Valverde finishing 4th and Tejay Van Garderen finishing 5th.

 

[SHAD0W93]

That also had Froome and Contador withdraw and no Quintana.

 

[Bolder]

Yes and no on Peraud. He was a great VTT rider who could time trial. And he’d done well in shorter stage races. So on the right course with a weaker field...but remarkable nonetheless.

 

[Squire]

A case could be made for Peraud being an underachiever rather than an overachiever. When you turn pro at 33 and podium the Tour at 37, it begs the question what he could have achieved if he had switched to the road earlier (granted, he had an excellent MTB career). That being said, his Tour result was certainly overachieving compared to his other (very solid but not eyebrow-raising) results on the road.

 

[Valv.Piti]

What about Jan Ullrich? Still counts as last 20 years right, he ran into LA and that prevented few Tour victories. Before that he lost also 1 Tour to Pantani which didn't need to happen. If he focused on the Vuelta and Giro instead he would have definently won a lot more than just two GTs.

Ullrich is the definition of an underachiever simply due to his insane talent. Yes, he won a Tour, but his unprofessional lifestyle really hampered him. Arcalis 1997 Ulle could easily have won a few editions against LA.

 

[Big Doopie]

A case could be made for Peraud being an underachiever rather than an overachiever. When you turn pro at 33 and podium the Tour at 37, it begs the question what he could have achieved if he had switched to the road earlier (granted, he had an excellent MTB career). That being said, his Tour result was certainly overachieving compared to his other (very solid but not eyebrow-raising) results on the road.

i believe this one is a hard one. it is also possible that he stayed in MTB as long as he did because the situation in road racing was so dominated by clinic-related performances. the argument could be made that he only achieved what he "deserved" at the end of his career when performances were on the whole beginning to be less "formidable".

already in 2013 he was doing very well (top ten easy) before crashing out in the ITT -- and that was with Froome, Contador and Quintana...

my 2 cents.

 

[Bonimenier]

In 10 years TGH might be on this list as well. I find it hard to imagine he'll ever really compete for another grand tour again.

 

[fbjim]

You would have bet the house on Ullrich winning everything in sight for a decade after how he destroyed the 1997 tour. It's like if Egan Bernal never wins another TDF after 2019 or something.

 

[Escarabajo]

In 10 years TGH might be on this list as well. I find it hard to imagine he'll ever really compete for another grand tour again.

I can believe it just for the fact that this was an odd year and the results from the Giro would have to be taken with a grain of salt.

Ullrich fits the definition of underachiever like others have said it here.

 

[Koronin]

So here is an intriguing question. Did Valverde achieve what he is/was capable of achieving or even with his insanely impressive palmares did he actually underachieve? Should he have won another Grand Tour? He didn't win Lombardia or Amstel. His Olympics record is poor at best. He only has 4 stage wins at the Tour and only 1 podium there. He never won Paris-Nice. On the other hand, he has records for most wins at several Spanish races plus Fleche Wallone. He has the Vuelta podium record and is tied for the green jersey record there.

 

[tobydawq]

I think he has underachieved a bit.

 

[Koronin]

I think he has underachieved a bit.

That's my conclusion as well. His isn't as obvious or drastic because of all he has achieved. Thanks.

 

[staubsauger]

Valverde has won a Vuelta & podiumed the Tour, while showing off multiple times that he's not capable of both. That's the exact indication of overarching.

 

[tobydawq]

Valverde has won a Vuelta & podiumed the Tour, while showing off multiple times that he's not capable of both. That's the exact indication of overarching.

Lol, what? That's one way to do logic, I guess...

 

[staubsauger]

Lol, what? That's one way to do logic, I guess...

As a classics rider he probably underarchieved. As a gt rider he's an obvious overachiever. It levels each other out IMHO.

 

[tobydawq]

As a classics rider he probably underarchieved. As a gt rider he's an obvious overachiever. It levels each other out IMHO.

Maybe. But his best chances in the Tour were ruined through early injury (2006 and 2017).

And the 2012 Vuelta could have been close without the early-day puncture where the peloton just chose to try to bury him very unsportsmanlike-ly.