Paris-Nice 2017, 5th-12th March

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

Wonder what racing this 2nd category climb will provide on tired legs.

Strange to rate a climb of 6,7% on 2.1k as 2nd category.

 

[vedrafjord]

Re:

Wonder what racing this 2nd category climb will provide on tired legs.

2km @ 7% and 26km from the summit to the finish apparently - it'd be a cat 4 in Strava - more ASO climb inflation.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re: Re:

Poor Richie probably thought he'd have a few flat days to find the legs after this break from racing, instead he got back to back epic flandrian one day races!

Yeah, but still better training quiet and alone on Tasmanian roads in hot weather than riding Abu Dhabi! He seemed in good shape yesterday, must simply have had a bad day, that happens to the best (read: thinnest) in these conditions.

Being the strongest on the mountains and TT is not equal to being best. There are other aspects in cycling. He couldn't ride in the wind and lost minutes today

I am well aware of that. Thats why racing a real race as a prep is superior.

Ah, yup. Good training for Porte, full gas. Perhaps he will abandon and go to Tirreno?

 

[vedrafjord]

Re: Re:

Wonder what racing this 2nd category climb will provide on tired legs.

2km @ 7% and 26km from the summit to the finish apparently - it'd be a cat 4 in Strava - more ASO climb inflation.

I think it's this: https://www.strava.com/segments/3118945

 

[Max Rockatansky]

It looks like a proper climb to eliminate Kittel, but this is never 2nd category.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Poor Richie probably thought he'd have a few flat days to find the legs after this break from racing, instead he got back to back epic flandrian one day races!

Yeah, but still better training quiet and alone on Tasmanian roads in hot weather than riding Abu Dhabi! He seemed in good shape yesterday, must simply have had a bad day, that happens to the best (read: thinnest) in these conditions.

Being the strongest on the mountains and TT is not equal to being best. There are other aspects in cycling. He couldn't ride in the wind and lost minutes today

I am well aware of that. Thats why racing a real race as a prep is superior.

Ah, yup. Good training for Porte, full gas. Perhaps he will abandon and go to Tirreno?

Porte still can win 2 stages and spoil a racing week for any gc contender. Why should he abandon?

 

[TourOfTexas]

Rudy Molard moving to the front, Demare on his wheel.

Albasini attacks.

Molard on the front. Chases down Albasini

Albasini dropped from the peloton

Molard still on the front for 100 meters. :surprised:

 

[hfer07]

two very hard days on the bike to narrow the GC title between Henao, Martin, Contador- maybe Gallopin & Alaphilippe can surprise....

 

[del1962]

I think Alaphilippe is favourite, if you doubt this then have a good look at his Dauphine results

 

[hfer07]

Re:

I think Alaphilippe is favourite, if you doubt this then have a good look at his Dauphine results

Indeed he is- I know he's a good climber and good rounded rider - what I'm not sure about is on his ITT skills - perhaps he'll surprise us!

 

[PeterB]

two very hard days on the bike to narrow the GC title between Henao, Martin, Contador- maybe Gallopin & Alaphilippe can surprise....

+ Izagirres, Zakarin, Barguil, Yates... GC battle is fortunately still open...

 

[manolo57]

Re: Re:

I think Alaphilippe is favourite, if you doubt this then have a good look at his Dauphine results

Indeed he is- I know he's a good climber and good rounded rider - what I'm not sure about is on his ITT skills - perhaps he'll surprise us!

Look at his TT on California 2015 and 2016, or Dauphiné 2014, you'll see that he is quite strong on short ones ! And the one on Wednesday has a strong uphill finish.

 

[shalgo]

Luckily for Zakarin there is no downhill in this time trial.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Rudy Molard moving to the front, Demare on his wheel.

Albasini attacks.

Molard on the front. Chases down Albasini

Albasini dropped from the peloton

Molard still on the front for 100 meters. :surprised:

It was Cimolai not Molard, but yes, he was very impressive.

The Italians bossed the final km today. 700m leadout from Cimolai, then 300m sprint from Colbrelli.

 

[fauniera]

Col de la Couillole will be the bigger problem for Alaphilippe. It's too long for him.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I remain baffled by many people's faith in riders who have not regularly showed serious high mountain climbing ability to win this race. Has nobody looked at the parcours? Cuillole is 16km long and is preceded by another real climb. Unless people like Gallopin or Alaphillipe have taken really drastic steps forward as climbers, the real climbers should put enormous time into them.

Now maybe someone has taken huge steps forward as a climber and they will be competitive. It's not impossible. But I don't see much reason to assume that they have in advance. Or maybe the weather wrecks some more of the climbers chances. Again far from impossible. But all things being equal I don't see how anyone can favour a non specialist climber without a much bigger headstart than they currently have.

 

[Forever The Best]

Col de la Couillole will be the bigger problem for Alaphilippe. It's too long for him.

Indeed. He should be very good in the other stages, maybe even winning a stage or two.

 

[rick james]

If Henao goes for it on the big mountain day, Gallopin or Alaphillipe have not a hope in hell of hanging on

 

[pink_jersey]

Re:

If Henao goes for it on the big mountain day, Gallopin or Alaphillipe have not a hope in hell of hanging on

All Henao needs is to hang on Bertie wheel on Couillole. I don't think Alaphilippe can stay with him and Bertie there but I expect him to beat Henao on Fayence.

 

[fauniera]

Noone beats Henao in Fayence.

I hope.

But seriously, Henao is much more explosive than Contador, Fayence is good for him. Zakarin is a threat on Couillole, though.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I remain baffled by many people's faith in riders who have not regularly showed serious high mountain climbing ability to win this race. Has nobody looked at the parcours? Cuillole is 16km long and is preceded by another real climb. Unless people like Gallopin or Alaphillipe have taken really drastic steps forward as climbers, the real climbers should put enormous time into them.

Now maybe someone has taken huge steps forward as a climber and they will be competitive. It's not impossible. But I don't see much reason to assume that they have in advance. Or maybe the weather wrecks some more of the climbers chances. Again far from impossible. But all things being equal I don't see how anyone can favour a non specialist climber without a much bigger headstart than they currently have.

Not sure why you're grouping Alaphilippe with Gallopin here. It's not like a stage in the third week of a GT; it's a one off mountain stage, with only one proper climb, and Alaphilippe certainly has a lot of good performances in these kind of stages on his palmares. His win at California got the headlines, but his performance in the Dauphine was even more impressive from a climbing perspective. On Vaujany in the Dauphine he finished just 5 seconds or so behind Bardet and Contador; on Meribel he was only a handful of seconds behind Froome and Contador; and he beat both Froome & Contador on final stage of Dauphine with the Col de Noyer. Even this season, in the Abu Dhabi mountain stage he finished 5th, dancing away from Contador, Bardet and Quintana.

Not sure what more a 24 year old - who looks on great form - needs to have done in week long stage races to be considered as a big overall threat. Probably joint favourite with Henao.

 

[vedrafjord]

Re:

Unless people like Gallopin or Alaphillipe have taken really drastic steps forward as climbers, the real climbers should put enormous time into them.

Alaphillipe who finished 6th in the Dauphiné last year and only lost a few seconds to Froome/Porte/Contador in the mountain stages?

 

[DBotero]

Re:

I remain baffled by many people's faith in riders who have not regularly showed serious high mountain climbing ability to win this race. Has nobody looked at the parcours? Cuillole is 16km long and is preceded by another real climb. Unless people like Gallopin or Alaphillipe have taken really drastic steps forward as climbers, the real climbers should put enormous time into them.

Now maybe someone has taken huge steps forward as a climber and they will be competitive. It's not impossible. But I don't see much reason to assume that they have in advance. Or maybe the weather wrecks some more of the climbers chances. Again far from impossible. But all things being equal I don't see how anyone can favour a non specialist climber without a much bigger headstart than they currently have.

Gallopin did a decent performance on PSM,better than some real climbers.Finishing at 2'22'' from a flying Froome is not bad at all for a rider like him.He can climb very well on his days.

 

[rhubroma]

The TT will determine who can and can't win Paris-Nice. I'm not sure how Henao, Alaphilipe, Zakarin and Martin will do. If they fair well, then it could be one of them.

 

[Mr.White]

Alaphilippe could hang on, but I rate Henao as the prime favorite now. Zakarin is serious contender too, along with Contador of course. I expect ITT to clear things up a bit. Someone is going to be affected by this two hard days.